In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Immunohistochemistry in diagnostic veterinary pathology: a critical review

A técnica de imuno-histoquímica é usada na rotina diagnóstica e na pesquisa em patologia humana desde 1970, porém seu uso na patologia veterinária é relativamente recente, principalmente com objetivo diagnóstico. A maior dificuldade no uso da imuno-histoquímica na patologia veterinária tem sido a falta de anticorpos específicos para os tecidos animais. Na falta de anticorpos específicos para as espécies domésticas, a patologia veterinária freqüentemente faz uso de anticorpos que apresentam reatividade cruzada entre antígenos humanos e animais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi testar a reatividade cruzada de diversos anticorpos feitos para uso humano em tecido parafinado de algumas espécies animais, utilizando-se dos novos métodos de recuperação antigênica e amplificação da reação imuno-histoquímica. No presente estudo foi possível confirmar a aplicabilidade de que muitos anticorpos produzidos para diagnóstico imuno-histoquímico em patologia humana podem ser utilizados em patologia veterinária. Novos estudos são necessários a fim de se ampliar a lista de aplicabilidade desses anticorpos em diferentes espécies animais, levando sempre em consideração as variações de clones, diluições, métodos de recuperação antigênica e de revelação.

Step Counting and Energy Expenditure Estimation in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Healthy Elderly: Accuracy of 2 Motion Sensors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O papel do mapeamento dúplex no diagnóstico da trombose venosa profunda assintomática dos membros inferiores

O diagnóstico da trombose venosa profunda sintomática está bem estabelecido com o uso do mapeamento dúplex, que apresenta sensibilidade de 100% e especificidade de 98%, para trombose venosa profunda proximal, e sensibilidade de 94% e especificidade de 75%, para distal. Na trombose venosa profunda recente e assintomática, o diagnóstico com o mapeamento dúplex ainda não está bem estabelecido, mostrando uma queda na acurácia desse método diagnóstico. Essa queda é devida ao fato de o trombo recente não ser oclusivo, apresentar a mesma ecogenicidade do sangue e uma consistência diminuída, prejudicando o teste da compressibilidade, que é o mais sensível para diagnóstico da trombose venosa profunda. Nesta revisão, serão revistos artigos publicados que avaliaram a acurácia do mapeamento dúplex no diagnóstico da trombose venosa profunda assintomática.

Accuracy of Tc-99m-sestamibi scintimammography for breast cancer diagnosis

Scintimammography using Tc-99m-sestamibi is a noninvasive and painless diagnostic imaging method that is used to detect breast cancer when mammography is inconclusive Because of the advantages of labeling v '7,ith Tc-99m-sestamibi and its high efficiency in detecting carcinomas, it is the most widespread agent for this purpose Its accumulation in the tumor has multifactorial causes and does not depend on the presence of architectural distortion or local or diffuse density variation in the breast The objective of tfiis study was to evaluate the accuracy of scintimammography 1 for detecting breast cancer One hundred and fifty-seven patients presenting 158 palpable and non-palpable breast nodules were evaluated Three patients were male and 154 were female, aged between 14 and 81 years All patients underwent scintimammography, and the nodule was subjected i to cytological or histological study, i e, the gold standard for diagnosing cancer One hundred and eleven malignant and 47 benign nodules were detected, with predominance of ductal carcinomas (n=94) and fibroadenoma/fibrocysiic condition (n=11/n=11), respectively The mean size was 3 11 cm (7-10 cm) among the malignant nodules and 2 07 cm among the benign nodules (0 5-10 cm) The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were 89, 89, 95, 78 and 89%, respectively Analysis on the histological types showed that the technique was more effective on tumors that were more aggressive, such as ductal carcinoma In this study, Tc-99m-sestamibi scintim immography was shown to be an important tool for diagnosing breast cancer when mammography was inconclusive

A Novel Diagnostic Target in the Hepatitis C Virus Genome

BackgroundDetection and quantification of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA is integral to diagnostic and therapeutic regimens. All molecular assays target the viral 5'-noncoding region (59-NCR), and all show genotype-dependent variation of sensitivities and viral load results. Non-western HCV genotypes have been under-represented in evaluation studies. An alternative diagnostic target region within the HCV genome could facilitate a new generation of assays.Methods and FindingsIn this study we determined by de novo sequencing that the 3'-X-tail element, characterized significantly later than the rest of the genome, is highly conserved across genotypes. To prove its clinical utility as a molecular diagnostic target, a prototype qualitative and quantitative test was developed and evaluated multicentrically on a large and complete panel of 725 clinical plasma samples, covering HCV genotypes 1-6, from four continents (Germany, UK, Brazil, South Africa, Singapore). To our knowledge, this is the most diversified and comprehensive panel of clinical and genotype specimens used in HCV nucleic acid testing (NAT) validation to date. The lower limit of detection (LOD) was 18.4 IU/ml (95% confidence interval, 15.3-24.1 IU/ml), suggesting applicability in donor blood screening. The upper LOD exceeded 10(-9) IU/ml, facilitating viral load monitoring within a wide dynamic range. In 598 genotyped samples, quantified by Bayer VERSANT 3.0 branched DNA (bDNA), X-tail-based viral loads were highly concordant with bDNA for all genotypes. Correlation coefficients between bDNA and X-tail NAT, for genotypes 1-6, were: 0.92, 0.85, 0.95, 0.91, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively; X-tail-based viral loads deviated by more than 0.5 log10 from 5'-NCR-based viral loads in only 12% of samples (maximum deviation, 0.85 log10). The successful introduction of X-tail NAT in a Brazilian laboratory confirmed the practical stability and robustness of the X-tail-based protocol. The assay was implemented at low reaction costs (US$8.70 per sample), short turnover times (2.5 h for up to 96 samples), and without technical difficulties.ConclusionThis study indicates a way to fundamentally improve HCV viral load monitoring and infection screening. Our prototype assay can serve as a template for a new generation of viral load assays. Additionally, to our knowledge this study provides the first open protocol to permit industry-grade HCV detection and quantification in resource-limited settings.

Metabolic syndrome in overweight children from the city of Botucatu - São Paulo State - Brazil: agreement among six diagnostic criteria

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Is urine interleukin-8 level a reliable laboratory test for diagnosing late onset sepsis in premature infants?

The present study is aimed to determine serum and urine interleukin-8 (IL-8) levels in premature infants with late onset sepsis (LOS) and to evaluate if urine IL-8 is a useful test for LOS diagnosis. Fifty-six premature infants admitted to the NICU over 1 year had serum and urine IL-8 determined by ELISA. They were divided into three groups: I definite sepsis, II probable sepsis and III non-infected. Results were expressed as mean or median. Differences between groups were assessed by ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA and Dunns Method. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were calculated and a receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed to determine serum and urine IL-8 accuracy. There were no differences between groups for birth weight, and gestational and post-natal age. Median serum and urine IL-8 levels were significantly higher in GI and GII: 929 x 906 x 625pg/ml; P=0.024, and 249 x 189 x 42pg/mgCr; P< 0.001. Optimal cut-off point was 625pg/ml for serum IL-8 with 69 sensitivity and 75pg/mgCr for urine IL-8 with 92 sensitivity. IL-8 can be determined in urine from premature infants with LOS and is an accurate and feasible diagnosis method.

Flow cytometric assessment of canine erythrocytes and platelets for dog erythrocyte antigen 1.1

Background: In human medicine, transfusion of ABO-mismatched platelets has been associated with shortened platelet survival and refractoriness to platelet transfusion because of expression of certain blood group antigens on platelets. It remains unknown if canine platelets express dog erythrocyte antigens (DEAs). Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a flow cytometric assay for DEA 1.1 and determine whether DEA 1.1 is present on canine platelets.Methods: Blood was collected from 172 clinically healthy dogs. Platelets and erythrocytes from each dog were tested for DEA 1.1 by flow cytometry using anti-DEA 1.1 blood-typing sera. Erythrocytes from each dog were also assessed for DEA 1.1 using a standard tube-typing test (T1) and using a second tube method (T2), if the flow cytometric and T1 results differed.Results: Using flow cytometry, DEA 1.1 was detected on erythrocytes of all 110 dogs shown by T1 or T2 testing to be DEA 1.1-positive. Initial results of the T1 test had a diagnostic accuracy of 93% (160 correct/ 172 tests). The frequency of erythrocyte DEA 1.1 positivity in previously untyped dogs (n = 118) was 56%. DEA 1.1 expression was not detected on platelets from DEA 1.1-positive dogs.Conclusions: Flow cytometry was a reliable method for detection of DEA 1.1 on canine erythrocytes. The absence of DEA 1.1 on platelets from DEA 1.1-positive dogs suggests that their platelets do not express DEA 1.1 and will not induce production of anti-DEA 1.1 antibodies that might lead to platelet refractoriness or reactions to a subsequent transfusion of DEA 1.1positive erythrocytes.

Comparison of agar gel immunodiffusion test, rapid slide agglutination test, microbiological culture and PCR for the diagnosis of canine brucellosis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparative evaluation of an indirect ELISA test for diagnosis of swine cysticercosis employing antigen from Taenia solium and Taenia crassiceps metacestodes

Taenia solium cysticercosis is still a serious public health problem in several countries where poverty and lack of hygiene favor transmission. Because pigs are the primary intermediate hosts, prevalence of porcine cysticercosis is a reliable indicator of active transmission zones. Serological diagnostic methods are important tools for epidemiological studies since they can be applied to living animals on a large scale. Four antigen preparations (cyst fluid and crude) from T. solium and T. crassiceps metacestodes were compared for swine cysticercosis diagnosis by indirect ELISA (IE). Twenty-eight serum samples from swine naturally and experimentally infected by cysticerci of T. solium and 56 serum samples from swine reared in commercial herds were tested. Best results of overall sensitivity were obtained by the use of cyst fluid and crude antigen of T. crassiceps metacestode (100 and 96.4%, respectively). Using homologous antigen preparations we have observed higher specificity percentage (98.2% for cyst fluid and 96.4% for crude metacestode T. solium antigen). We concluded that sensitivity is of far more importance than specificity for identification of endemic areas in order to prevent transmission to man. We conclude, therefore, that IE performed with cyst fluid antigen of T. crassiceps metacestode is a better tool for that purpose. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Impression Accuracy for Implant at Various Angulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of different repair techniques on the accuracy of repositioning the fractured denture base

Objective:This study investigated the efficacy of different techniques for the union of fragments of a denture before repair and on the accuracy of the reposition.Materials and methods:For this study, 20 maxillary dentures made with Lucitone 550 heat-cured resin were used. Points were determined with a scanner on the cusp of the teeth, as a measurement of the segments. After digitisation, each model was exported to the AUTOCAD R 14 program and two-dimensional measurements of the distances between the marked points were made. After the initial analysis, the dentures were fractured into two segments using an impact test machine. For the repair, maxillary dentures were divided into two groups; in the first, the repair was carried out using Kerr's sticky wax and in the second group, Super Bonder was used to join the fragments, with subsequent inclusion of DENTSPLY((R)) Repair Material resin. After the repair, the points of the maxillary dentures were measured again. The numerical values obtained were tabulated to compare the measurements before fracture and after the repair. For statistical analysis, analysis of variance was employed, using a single factor and double factor, followed by the Tukey test with a reliability of 95%.Results:The results demonstrated a statistically significant difference between the materials used to join the dentures for repair, where the dentures were joined with sticky wax presented a larger variation in the distances between the points.Conclusion:The variation in distances between the points is influenced by the agent of repair.

Accuracy of Impression Techniques for Impants. Part 2-Comparison of Splinting Techniques

Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare splinting techniques for impression copings of osseointegrated implants with different angulations.Materials and Methods: Replicas (N = 24) of a metal matrix (control) containing two implants at 90 degrees and 65 degrees in relation to the horizontal surface were obtained by using four impression techniques: Technique 1 (T1), direct technique with square copings without union in open trays; Technique 2 (T2), square copings splinted with dental floss and autopolymerizing acrylic resin; Technique 3 (T3), square copings splinted with dental floss and autopolymerizing acrylic resin, sectioned and splinted again with autopolymerizing acrylic resin; Technique 4 (T4), square copings splinted with prefabricated acrylic resin bar. The impression material was polyether. The replicas were individually scanned to capture the images, which were assessed in a graphic computation program. The program allowed the angulation between the bases of the replicas and the reading screws to be measured. The images of the replicas were compared with the matrix image (control), and the differences in angulations from the control image were calculated. The analysis of variance and the Tukey test for comparisons (p < 0.05) were used for statistical analysis.Results: All groups showed significant differences in the implant angulations in comparison with the control group (p < 0.05). Group T1 showed the highest difference (1.019 degrees) followed by groups T2 (0.747 degrees), T3 (0.516 degrees), and T4 (0.325 degrees), which showed the lowest angular alteration compared to the control group. There were significant differences between inclined and straight implants in all the groups, except in group T4.Conclusions: Based on the results, the splinting of pick-up impression copings is indicated for osseointegrated implant impressions. The square copings splinted with a prefabricated acrylic resin bar presented the best results among the pick-up impression techniques evaluated in this study.

Prosthetic transfer impression accuracy evaluation for osseointegrated implants

Purpose: The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare 3 impression techniques for osseointegrated implant transfer procedures.Materials and Methods: (1) Group Splinted with Acrylic Resin (SAR), impression with square copings splinted with prefabricated autopolymerizing acrylic resin bar; (2) Group Splinted with Light-Curing Resin (SLR), impression, with square copings splinted with prefabricated light-curing composite resin bar; (3). Group Independent Air-abraded (IAA), impression with independent square coping aluminum oxide air-abraded. Impression procedures were performed with polyether material, and the data obtained was compared with a control group. These were characterized by metal matrix (MM) measurement values of the implants inclination positions at 90 and 05 degrees in relation to the matrix surface. Readings of analogs and implant inclinations were assessed randomly through graphic computation AutoCAD software. Experimental groups angular deviation with MM were submitted to analysis of variance and means were compared through Tukey's test (P < 0.05).Results: There was no statistical significant difference between SAR and SLR experimental groups and MM for vertical and angulated implants. Group IAA presented a statistically significant difference for angulated implants.Conclusion: It was concluded within the limitations of this study, that SAR and SLR produced more accurate casts than IAA technique, which presented inferior results.