Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops

The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5degrees x 2.5degrees grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

The nature of exhibits about acoustics in Science and Technology centres

This is a study of the opportunities currently provided by interactive science and technology centres for visitors' engagement in the field of acoustics. E-mails, requesting a description of exhibits on acoustics (sound and hearing) in use, were sent to members of staff of interactive science and technology centres around the world as well as to companies that design and sell exhibits. Eighty-seven descriptions of distinctive interactive exhibits were received and analysed. Results show that: there are few analogy-based exhibits concerning the more complex aspects of acoustics; narratives involving visitors' everyday lives, that might provide continuity between and beyond the situations presented by exhibits, are not generally provided; science is emphasised at the expense of technology; the risks, benefits and ethical implications of relevant technological artefacts are rarely mentioned; the majority of the exhibits are concerned with the fields of fundamental acoustics, hearing, and psychoacoustics. It is suggested that interactive science and technology centres need to rethink the design of exhibits about acoustics if their mission includes some appreciation of this important branch of science and technology.

Design and fabrication of infrared filters for remote sounding instrumentation

Cooled infrared filters have been used in pressure modulation and filter radiometry to measure the dynamics, temperature distribution and concentrations of atmospheric elements in various satellite radiometers. Invariably such instruments use precision infrared bandpass filters and coatings for spectral selction, often operating at cryogenic temperatures. More recent developments in the use of spectrally-selective cooled detectors in focal plane arrays have simplified the optical layout and reduced the component count of radiometers but have placed additional demands on both the spectral and physical performance requirements of the filters. This paper describes and contrasts the more traditional radiometers using discrete detectors with those which use focal plane detector array technology, with particular emphasis on the function of the filters and coatings in the two cases. Additionally we discuss the spectral techniques and materials used to fabricate infrared coatings and filters for use in space optics, and give examples of their application in the fabrication of some demanding long wavelength dichroics and filters. We also discuss the effects of the space environment on the stability and durability of high performance infrared filters and materials exposed to low Earth orbit for 69 months on the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF).

Rethinking construction: the Generic Design and Construction Process Protocol

The complexity of construction projects and the fragmentation of the construction industry undertaking those projects has effectively resulted in linear, uncoordinated and highly variable project processes in the UK construction sector. Research undertaken at the University of Salford resulted in the development of an improved project process, the Process Protocol, which considers the whole lifecycle of a construction project whilst integrating its participants under a common framework. The Process Protocol identifies the various phases of a construction project with particular emphasis on what is described in the manufacturing industry as the ‘fuzzy front end’. The participants in the process are described in terms of the activities that need to be undertaken in order to achieve a successful project and process execution. In addition, the decision-making mechanisms, from a client perspective, are illustrated and the foundations for a learning organization/industry are facilitated within a consistent Process Protocol.

Co-operative explanatory capabilities in organizational design and personnel management

Based on an online image archive documenting the construction and history of an early computing company, the fictional story of "Co-Operative Explanatory Capabilities in Organizational Design and Personnel Management” follows the development of an experimental approach to worker productivity into a religious cult. The project investigates the place of creativity in efficiency management and the operation of bureaucratic systems in a post-industrial work environment. The project has spawned a series of collages, featured on the Economic Thought Projects 7" collaboration with Gelbart, The Eleventh Voyage, as well as the film of Co-Operative Explanatory Capabilities in Organizational Design and Personnel Management, which has also been published as a short story in Vertigo of the Modern and on Sacrifice Press.