The Fuzzy-Neuro Classifier for Decision Support

This paper aims at development of procedures and algorithms for application of artificial intelligence tools to acquire process and analyze various types of knowledge. The proposed environment integrates techniques of knowledge and decision process modeling such as neural networks and fuzzy logic-based reasoning methods. The problem of an identification of complex processes with the use of neuro-fuzzy systems is solved. The proposed classifier has been successfully applied for building one decision support systems for solving managerial problem.

A Multicriteria Decision Support System MultiDecision-1

* This paper is partially supported by the National Science Fund of Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science under contract № I–1401\2004 "Interactive Algorithms and Software Systems Supporting Multicriteria Decision Making."

Methods of Adaptive Extraction and Analysis of Knowledge for Knowledge-base Construction and Fast Decision Making

An approach for knowledge extraction from the information arriving to the knowledge base input and also new knowledge distribution over knowledge subsets already present in the knowledge base is developed. It is also necessary to realize the knowledge transform into parameters (data) of the model for the following decision-making on the given subset. It is assumed to realize the decision-making with the fuzzy sets’ apparatus.

Analogical Reasoning Techniques in Intelligent Counterterrorism Systems

The paper develops a set of ideas and techniques supporting analogical reasoning throughout the life-cycle of terrorist acts. Implementation of these ideas and techniques can enhance the intellectual level of computer-based systems for a wide range of personnel dealing with various aspects of the problem of terrorism and its effects. The method combines techniques of structure-sensitive distributed representations in the framework of Associative-Projective Neural Networks, and knowledge obtained through the progress in analogical reasoning, in particular the Structure Mapping Theory. The impact of these analogical reasoning tools on the efforts to minimize the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population is expected by facilitating knowledge acquisition and formation of terrorism-related knowledge bases, as well as supporting the processes of analysis, decision making, and reasoning with those knowledge bases for users at various levels of expertise before, during, and after terrorist acts.

A Log Tool for Software Systems Analyses

The article presents a new type of logs merging tool for multiple blade telecommunication systems based on the development of a new approach. The introduction of the new logs merging tool (the Log Merger) can help engineers to build a processes behavior timeline with a flexible system of information structuring used to assess the changes in the analyzed system. This logs merging system based on the experts experience and their analytical skills generates a knowledge base which could be advantageous in further decision-making expert system development. This paper proposes and discusses the design and implementation of the Log Merger, its architecture, multi-board analysis of capability and application areas. The paper also presents possible ways of further tool improvement e.g. - to extend its functionality and cover additional system platforms. The possibility to add an analysis module for further expert system development is also considered.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Algorithm of Decision Support in Emergency

Constant increase of human population result in more and more people living in emergency dangerous regions. In order to protect them from possible emergencies we need effective solution for decision taking in case of emergencies, because lack of time for taking decision and possible lack of data. One among possible methods of taking such decisions is shown in this article.

Driving licensing renewal policy using neural network-based probabilistic decision support system

This paper investigates neural network-based probabilistic decision support system to assess drivers' knowledge for the objective of developing a renewal policy of driving licences. The probabilistic model correlates drivers' demographic data to their results in a simulated written driving exam (SWDE). The probabilistic decision support system classifies drivers' into two groups of passing and failing a SWDE. Knowledge assessment of drivers within a probabilistic framework allows quantifying and incorporating uncertainty information into the decision-making system. The results obtained in a Jordanian case study indicate that the performance of the probabilistic decision support systems is more reliable than conventional deterministic decision support systems. Implications of the proposed probabilistic decision support systems on the renewing of the driving licences decision and the possibility of including extra assessment methods are discussed.

An investigation of Albanian EFL teachers' decision-making in their use of CLT-oriented textbooks

Against a backdrop of ongoing educational reforms that seek to introduce Communicative Language Teaching (CLT) in Albanian primary and secondary state schools, Albanian teachers, among others, are officially required to use communication-based textbooks in their classes. Authorities in a growing number of countries that are seeking to improve and westernise their educational systems are also using communication-based textbooks as agents of change. Behind these actions, there is the commonly held belief that textbooks can be used to support teacher learning as they provide a visible framework teachers can follow. Communication-based textbooks are used in thousands of EFL classrooms around the world to help teachers to “fully understand and routinize change” (Hutchinson and Torres, 1994:323). However, empirical research on the role materials play in the classroom, and in particular the role of textbook as an agent of change, is still very little, and what does exist is rather inconclusive. This study aims to fulfill this gap. It is predominately a qualitative investigation into how and why four Albanian EFL teachers use Western teaching resources in their classes. Aiming at investigating the decision-making processes that teachers go through in their teaching, and specifically at investigating the relationship between Western-published textbooks, teachers’ decision making, and teachers’ classroom delivery, the current study contributes to an extensive discussion on the development of communicative L2 teaching concepts and methods, teacher decision making, as well as a growing discussion on how best to make institutional reforms effective, particularly in East-European ex-communist countries and in other developing countries. Findings from this research indicate that, prompted by the content of Western-published textbooks, the four research participants, who had received little formal training in CLT teaching, accommodated some communicative teaching behaviours into their teaching. The use of communicative textbooks, however, does not seem to account for radical, methodological changes in teachers’ practices. Teacher cognitions based on teachers’ previous learning experience are likely to act as a lens through which teachers judge classroom realities. As such, they shape, to a great degree, the decisions teachers make regarding the use of Western-published textbooks in their classes.

Integrating Moodle with University Information Systems

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2013

Dynamic variability in adaptive systems

One of the reasons for using variability in the software product line (SPL) approach (see Apel et al., 2006; Figueiredo et al., 2008; Kastner et al., 2007; Mezini & Ostermann, 2004) is to delay a design decision (Svahnberg et al., 2005). Instead of deciding on what system to develop in advance, with the SPL approach a set of components and a reference architecture are specified and implemented (during domain engineering, see Czarnecki & Eisenecker, 2000) out of which individual systems are composed at a later stage (during application engineering, see Czarnecki & Eisenecker, 2000). By postponing the design decisions in such a manner, it is possible to better fit the resultant system in its intended environment, for instance, to allow selection of the system interaction mode to be made after the customers have purchased particular hardware, such as a PDA vs. a laptop. Such variability is expressed through variation points which are locations in a software-based system where choices are available for defining a specific instance of a system (Svahnberg et al., 2005). Until recently it had sufficed to postpone committing to a specific system instance till before the system runtime. However, in the recent years the use and expectations of software systems in human society has undergone significant changes.Today's software systems need to be always available, highly interactive, and able to continuously adapt according to the varying environment conditions, user characteristics and characteristics of other systems that interact with them. Such systems, called adaptive systems, are expected to be long-lived and able to undertake adaptations with little or no human intervention (Cheng et al., 2009). Therefore, the variability now needs to be present also at system runtime, which leads to the emergence of a new type of system: adaptive systems with dynamic variability.

Perceptions and experiences of the implementation, management, use and optimisation of electronic prescribing systems in hospital settings:protocol for a systematic review of qualitative studies

Introduction: There is increasing evidence that electronic prescribing (ePrescribing) or computerised provider/physician order entry (CPOE) systems can improve the quality and safety of healthcare services. However, it has also become clear that their implementation is not straightforward and may create unintended or undesired consequences once in use. In this context, qualitative approaches have been particularly useful and their interpretative synthesis could make an important and timely contribution to the field. This review will aim to identify, appraise and synthesise qualitative studies on ePrescribing/CPOE in hospital settings, with or without clinical decision support. Methods and analysis: Data sources will include the following bibliographic databases: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Social Policy and Practice via Ovid, CINAHL via EBSCO, The Cochrane Library (CDSR, DARE and CENTRAL databases), Nursing and Allied Health Sources, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts via ProQuest and SCOPUS. In addition, other sources will be searched for ongoing studies (ClinicalTrials.gov) and grey literature: Healthcare Management Information Consortium, Conference Proceedings Citation Index (Web of Science) and Sociological abstracts. Studies will be independently screened for eligibility by 2 reviewers. Qualitative studies, either standalone or in the context of mixed-methods designs, reporting the perspectives of any actors involved in the implementation, management and use of ePrescribing/CPOE systems in hospital-based care settings will be included. Data extraction will be conducted by 2 reviewers using a piloted form. Quality appraisal will be based on criteria from the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist and Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research. Studies will not be excluded based on quality assessment. A postsynthesis sensitivity analysis will be undertaken. Data analysis will follow the thematic synthesis method. Ethics and dissemination: The study does not require ethical approval as primary data will not be collected. The results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant conferences.

Decision support system for production control: Multiple criteria decision making in practice

This paper presents a development of decision support systems for solving scheduling problems. It consists of two parts — the first describing the production processes which can be handled by the system and the second describing how the system works.

Consistency of the decision-maker in pair-wise comparisons

Most authors assume that the natural behaviour of the decision-maker is being inconsistent. This paper investigates the main sources of inconsistency and analyses methods for reducing or eliminating inconsistency. Decision support systems can contain interactive modules for that purpose. In a system with consistency control, there are three stages. First, consistency should be checked: a consistency measure is needed. Secondly, approval or rejection has to be decided: a threshold value of inconsistency measure is needed. Finally, if inconsistency is ‘high’, corrections have to be made: an inconsistency reducing method is needed. This paper reviews the difficulties in all stages. An entirely different approach is to elaborate a decision support system in order to force the decision-maker to give consistent values in each step of answering pair-wise comparison questions. An interactive questioning procedure resulting in consistent (sub) matrices has been demonstrated.

A reliability centered maintenance decision system for a discrete part manufacturing facility

This thesis develops and validates the framework of a specialized maintenance decision support system for a discrete part manufacturing facility. Its construction utilizes a modular approach based on the fundamental philosophy of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). The proposed architecture uniquely integrates System Decomposition, System Evaluation, Failure Analysis, Logic Tree Analysis, and Maintenance Planning modules. It presents an ideal solution to the unique maintenance inadequacies of modern discrete part manufacturing systems. Well established techniques are incorporated as building blocks of the system's modules. These include Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Logic Tree Analysis (LTA), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and an Expert System (ES). A Maintenance Information System (MIS) performs the system's support functions. Validation was performed by field testing of the system at a Miami based manufacturing facility. Such a maintenance support system potentially reduces downtime losses and contributes to higher product quality output. Ultimately improved profitability is the final outcome. ^