Harmful competition in the insurance markets

There is a general presumption that competition is a good thing. In this paper we show that competition in the insurance markets can be bad and that adverse selection is in general worse under competition than under monopoly. The reason is that monopoly can exploit its market power to relax incentive constraints by cross-subsidization between different risk types. Cream-skimming behavior, on the contrary, prevents competitive firms from using implicit transfers. In effect monopoly is shown to provide better coverage to those buying insurance but at the cost of limiting participation to insurance. Performing simulation for di erent distributions of risk, we find that monopoly in general performs (much) better than competition in terms of the realization of the gains from trade across all traders in equilibrium. However, most of the surplus is retained by the firm and, as a result, most individuals prefer competitive markets notwithstanding their performance is generally poorer than monopoly.

Interprovincial disparities in China since the reforms: Convergence or divergence?

This paper investigates the extent of disparities amongst the provinces of China since the economic reform in 1978 up to the most recent year for which data is available. After a brief review of theoretical and in particular recent empirical literature on regional inequality in China it investigates whether or not the dynamic economic growth in China has been coupled with increasing disparities amongst the Chinese provinces. The paper utilises a few models of convergence along the lines of those hypothesised by neoclassical economists. It employs per capita income and per capita consumption to identify the possible absolute and conditional convergence since the economic reforms. The coverage and impact of the disparities in terms of the relative size of population affected are then taken into account in the analysis of inequality in income and consumption.

Prise en charge des cancers du cavum (rhinopharynx) Nasopharyngeal cancers, an overview.

Les cancers du cavum ont une incidence d'environ 0,5 cas par an et par 100 000 habitants pour les hommes en France, mais sont endémiques dans des régions comme l'Asie du Sud-Est. La prise en charge thérapeutique par radiothérapie exclusive, qui a longtemps été le standard, permet d'obtenir des taux de contrôle local pour les stades T3-T4 de l'ordre de 50 à 75 % des cas. Les techniques d'irradiation en modulation d'intensité permettent une excellente couverture dosimétrique avec une meilleure protection des organes à risque et doivent être privilégiées. L'apport d'une chimiothérapie concomitante à l'IMRT améliore significativement les taux de survie globale qui sont supérieurs ou égaux à 75 % à cinq ans dans les stades avancés. Dans la pratique courante, une radiochimiothérapie concomitante à base de sels de platine est réalisée mais la place des cures néoadjuvantes et/ou adjuvantes est discutée dans le but principal de diminuer les rechutes à distance, des études sont en cours. Enfin, la surveillance doit être axée sur la détection précoce de rechutes locales potentiellement curables et sur la prise en charge des séquelles thérapeutiques à long terme. Cancer of the nasopharynx is an uncommon malignancy in France (incidence = 0.5/year/100,000 men) but is endemic in areas like in South-East Asia. Exclusive radiation therapy used to be the standard and results in local control rates for T3-T4 tumors around 50-75 %. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) improves tumor coverage with a sparing of organs at risk and has to be privileged. Concurrent chemotherapy with IMRT achieved significant survival benefice with 5-year overall survival above 75 %. Concurrent radiochemotherapy with platinium is the most frequent scheme but induction and adjuvant chemotherapies are discussed to reduce distant failure: studies are currently ongoing. Follow-up aims to detect early local failures with a chance of cure and to manage long-term toxicities.

Patient and physician gender concordance in preventive care in university primary care settings.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality of preventive care according to physician and patient gender in a country with universal health care coverage. METHODS: We assessed a retrospective cohort study of 1001 randomly selected patients aged 50-80years followed over 2years (2005-2006) in 4 Swiss university primary care settings (Basel, Geneva, Lausanne, Zürich). We used indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools and examined percentages of recommended preventive care. Results were adjusted using hierarchical multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1001 patients (44% women) were followed by 189 physicians (52% women). Female patients received less preventive care than male patients (65.2% vs. 72.1%, p<0.001). Female physicians provided significantly more preventive care than male physicians (p=0.01) to both female (66.7% vs. 63.6%) and male patients (73.4% vs. 70.7%). After multivariate adjustment, differences according to physician (p=0.02) and patient gender (p<0.001) remained statistically significant. Female physicians provided more recommended cancer screening than male physicians (78.4 vs. 71.9%, p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In Swiss university primary care settings, female patients receive less preventive care than male patients, with female physicians providing more preventive care than male physicians. Greater attention should be paid to female patients in preventive care and to why female physicians tend to provide better preventive care.

Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?

In the mid-1940s, American film industry was on its way up to its golden era as studios started mass-producing iconic feature films. The escalating increase in popularity of Hollywood stars was actively suggested for its direct links to box office success by academics. Using data collected in 2007, this paper carries out an empirical investigation on how different factors, including star power, affect the revenue of ‘home-run’ movies in Hollywood. Due to the subjective nature of star power, two different approaches were used: (1) number of nominations and wins of Academy Awards by the key players, and (2) average lifetime gross revenue of films involving the key players preceding the sample year. It is found that number of Academy awards nominations and wins was not statistically significant in generating box office revenue, whereas star power based on the second approach was statistically significant. Other significant factors were critics’ reviews, screen coverage and top distributor, while number of Academy awards, MPAA-rating, seasonality, being a sequel and popular genre were not statistically significant.

Silicone moulding for pressure sore debridement.

The radicality of wound debridement is an important feature of the surgical treatment of pressure sores. Several methods such as injection of methylene blue or hydrogen peroxide have been proposed to facilitate and optimise the surgical debridement technique, but none of them proved to be sufficient. We present an innovative modification of the pseudo-tumour technique consisting in the injection of fluid silicone. Vulcanisation of the silicone leads to pressure-sore moulding, permitting a more radical and sterile excision. In a series of 10 paraplegic patients presenting with ischial pressure sores, silicone moulding was used to facilitate debridement. Radical en bloc debridement was achieved in all patients. After a minimal follow-up of 2 years, no complications and recurrences occurred. A three-dimensional (3D) analysis of the silicone prints objectified the pyramidal shape of ischial pressure sores. Our study showed that complete resection without capsular lesion can be easily achieved. Further, it allows the surgeon to analyse the shape and size of the resected defect, which might be helpful to select the appropriate defect coverage technique.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Politicians in the Media: Determinants of Legislators' Presence and Prominence in Swiss Newspapers

In times of increasing "mediatization" of politics, when voters and their elected representatives primarily communicate through the media, the question of who gets into the news and why becomes of the utmost importance. This article examines the determinants of Swiss legislators' presence and prominence in the print media by focusing on three competing approaches drawn from communication studies. The first approach regards the media as a "mirror" of political reality and argues that the media focus on the most active deputies in parliament. Second, news values theory predicts that "authoritative" politicians in leadership positions get the most media coverage. Third, theories of "news bias" hold that the media privilege legislators who are in line with their own editorial interests. Overall, the statistical analyses show an important leadership effect and provide strong support for the second explanation. While deputies in official functions get the most extensive news coverage, media access can also be won by parliamentary activity. The least support is shown for the news bias theory, although some newspapers try to localize parliamentary news coverage by focusing on deputies from their own media market.

Biofilm formation by staphylococci on fresh, fresh-frozen and processed human and bovine bone grafts.

Biofilm formation is a multi-step process influenced by surface properties. We investigated early and mature biofilm of Staphylococcus aureus on 4 different biological calcium phosphate (CaP) bone grafts used for filling bone defects. We investigated standardised cylinders of fresh and fresh-frozen human bone grafts were harvested from femoral heads; processed humanand bovine bone grafts were obtained preformed. Biofilm formation was done in tryptic soy broth (TSB) using S. aureus (ATCC 29213) with static conditions. Biofilm density after 3 h (early biofilm) and 24 h (mature biofilm) was investigated by sonication and microcalorimetry. After 3 h, bacterial density was highest on fresh-frozenandfresh bone grafts. After 24 h, biofilm density was lowest on freshbone grafts (p < 0.001) compared to the other 3 materials, which did not differ quantitatively (p > 0.05). The lowest increase in bacterial density was detected on fresh bone grafts (p < 0.001). Despite normal shaped colonies, we found additional small colonies on the surface of the fresh and fresh-frozen samples by sonication. This was also apparent in microcalorimetric heat-flow curves. The four investigated CaP bone grafts showed minor structural differences in architecture but marked differences concerning serum coverage and the content of bone marrow, fibrous tissue and bone cells. These variations resulted in a decreased biofilm density on freshand fresh-frozenbone grafts after 24 h, despite an increased early biofilm formation and might also be responsible for the variations in colony morphology (small colonies). Detection of small colony variants by microcalorimetry might be a new approach to improve the understanding of biofilm formation.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

A mixed splicing procedure for economic time series

This note develops a flexible methodology for splicing economic time series that avoids the extreme assumptions implicit in the procedures most commonly used in the literature. It allows the user to split the required correction to the older of the series being linked between its levels and growth rates on the basis what he knows or conjectures about the persistence of the factors that account for the discrepancy between the two series that emerges at their linking point. The time profile of the correction is derived from the assumption that the error in the older series reflects the inadequate coverage of emerging sectors or activities that grow faster than the aggregate.

Direct magnetic resonance arthrography of the wrist with axial traction: A feasibility study to assess joint cartilage.

PURPOSE: To assess the impact of axial traction during acquisition of direct magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography of the wrist with regard to joint space width and amount of contrast material between the opposing cartilage surfaces. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen consecutive patients (12 male, mean age 38.1 years) were included in this Institutional Review Board-approved prospective study. Three-compartment wrist MR arthrographies were performed between October and December 2009 on a 3 T unit using a fat-suppressed T1-weighted isotropic high-resolution volumetric interpolated breathhold examination (VIBE) sequence in the coronal plane, with and without axial traction (3 kg). Two radiologists measured radiocarpal (radioscaphoid, radiolunate) and midcarpal (lunocapitate, hamatolunate) joint space widths, with and without traction, and assessed the amount of contrast material between the opposing cartilage surfaces using a three-point scale: 0 = absence, 1 = partial, 2 = complete. RESULTS: With traction, joint space width increased significantly at the radioscaphoid (Delta = 0.78 mm, P < 0.01), radiolunate (Delta = 0.18 mm, P < 0.01), and lunocapitate (Delta = 0.45 mm, P < 0.01) spaces, and both observers detected significantly more contrast material between the cartilage surfaces. At the hamatolunate space, the differences in joint space width (Delta = 0.14 mm, P = 0.54) and amount of contrast material were not significant. CONCLUSION: Direct wrist MR arthrography with axial traction of 3 kg increases joint space width at the radiocarpal and lunocapitate spaces, and prompts better coverage of the articular cartilage by the contrast material. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2011;. (c) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Relative protein quantification by isobaric SILAC with immonium ion splitting (ISIS)

Metabolic labeling techniques have recently become popular tools for the quantitative profiling of proteomes. Classical stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell cultures (SILAC) uses pairs of heavy/light isotopic forms of amino acids to introduce predictable mass differences in protein samples to be compared. After proteolysis, pairs of cognate precursor peptides can be correlated, and their intensities can be used for mass spectrometry-based relative protein quantification. We present an alternative SILAC approach by which two cell cultures are grown in media containing isobaric forms of amino acids, labeled either with 13C on the carbonyl (C-1) carbon or 15N on backbone nitrogen. Labeled peptides from both samples have the same nominal mass and nearly identical MS/MS spectra but generate upon fragmentation distinct immonium ions separated by 1 amu. When labeled protein samples are mixed, the intensities of these immonium ions can be used for the relative quantification of the parent proteins. We validated the labeling of cellular proteins with valine, isoleucine, and leucine with coverage of 97% of all tryptic peptides. We improved the sensitivity for the detection of the quantification ions on a pulsing instrument by using a specific fast scan event. The analysis of a protein mixture with a known heavy/light ratio showed reliable quantification. Finally the application of the technique to the analysis of two melanoma cell lines yielded quantitative data consistent with those obtained by a classical two-dimensional DIGE analysis of the same samples. Our method combines the features of the SILAC technique with the advantages of isobaric labeling schemes like iTRAQ. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of isobaric SILAC with immonium ion splitting as well as possible ways to improve it