Levels of consensus and majority and minority influence

Three experiments are reported which examine the effects of consensus information on majority and minority influence. In all experiments two levels of consensus difference were examined; large (82% versus 18%) and small (52% versus 48%). Experiment 1 showed that a majority source had more influence than a minority source, irrespective of consensus level. Experiment 2 examined the cause of this effect by presenting only the source label ('majority' versus 'minority'), only the consensus information (percentages) or both. The superior influence of the majority was again found when either (a) both source label and consensus information were given (replicating Experiment 1) and (b) only consensus information was given, but not when (c) only the source label was given. The results showed majority influence was due to the consensus information indicating more than 50% of the population supported that position. Experiment 3 also manipulated message quality (strong versus weak arguments) to identify whether systematic processing had occurred. Message quality only had an impact with the minority of 18%. These studies show that consensus information has different effects' for majority and minority influence. For majority influence, having over 50% support is sufficient to cause compliance while for a minority there are advantages to being numerically small, in terms of leading to detailed processing of its message. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Neonatal ethanol exposure reduces AMPA but not NMDA receptor levels in the rat neocortex

Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) is the leading cause of mental retardation in western society. We investigated possible changes in glutamate receptor levels in neonatal animals following ethanol exposure using radioligand binding and western blot analysis. We used a vapor chamber to administer ethanol to neonatal Wistar rats 3 h a day from postnatal day (PND) 4-9. A separation control group was separated from their mothers for the same time and duration as the vapor treatment, while a normal control group was left to develop normally. Daily ethanol administrations resulted in decreased brain weight and body weight, as well as microencephaly (decreased brain:body weight ratio). Neither the affinity nor maximum binding of [H-3]MK-801 (dizoclipine maleate) in the cortex of PND10 rats differed between treatment groups. Western blot analysis also failed to reveal any changes in NMDAR1, NMDAR2A, or NMDAR2B receptor levels. In contrast, the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 was greatly reduced in vapor-treated pups compared with control pups, as revealed by western blot analysis. A similar reduction was found in westerns with an antibody recognizing the GluR2 and 4 subunits. These results indicate that ethanol reduces AMPA rather than NMDA receptors in the developing neocortex, possibly by blocking NMDA receptors during development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The prediction of sharkskin instability observed during film blowing

The characteristics of sharkskin surface instability for linear low density polyethylene are studied as a function of film blowing processing conditions. By means of scanning electron microscopy and surface profilometry, is it found that for the standard industrial die geometry studied, sharkskin only occurs on the inside of the film bubble. Previous work suggests that this instability may be due to critical extensional stress levels at the exit of the die. Isothermal integral viscoelastic simulations of the annular extrusion process are reported, and confirm that the extensional stress at the die exit is large enough to cause local melt rupture. However the extensional stress level at the outer die wall predicts melt rupture of the outside bubble surface also, which contradicts the experimental findings. A significant temperature gradient is expected to exist across the die gap at the exit of the die, due to the external heating of the die and the low conductivity, of the polymer melt. It is shown that a gradient of 20 degreesC is required to cause sharkskin to only appear on the inner bubble surface.

Assessing clinical reasoning: a method to monitor its development in a PBL curriculum

The aim of this study was to develop and trial a method to monitor the evolution of clinical reasoning in a PBL curriculum that is suitable for use in a large medical school. Termed Clinical Reasoning Problems (CRPs), it is based on the notion that clinical reasoning is dependent on the identification and correct interpretation of certain critical clinical features. Each problem consists of a clinical scenario comprising presentation, history and physical examination. Based on this information, subjects are asked to nominate the two most likely diagnoses and to list the clinical features that they considered in formulating their diagnoses, indicating whether these features supported or opposed the nominated diagnoses. Students at different levels of medical training completed a set of 10 CRPs as well as the Diagnostic Thinking Inventory, a self-reporting questionnaire designed to assess reasoning style. Responses were scored against those of a reference group of general practitioners. Results indicate that the CRPs are an easily administered, reliable and valid assessment of clinical reasoning, able to successfully monitor its development throughout medical training. Consequently, they can be employed to assess clinical reasoning skill in individual students and to evaluate the success of undergraduate medical schools in providing effective tuition in clinical reasoning.

Cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with average cholesterol levels and established ischaemic heart disease: is it cost-effective?

Objective: To measure the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with established ischaemic heart disease and average baseline cholesterol levels. Design: Prospective economic evaluation within a double-blind randomised trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease [LIPID]), in which patients with a history of unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction were randomised to receive 40 mg of pravastatin daily or matching placebo. Patients and setting: 9014 patients aged 35-75 years from 85 centres in Australia and New Zealand, recruited from June 1990 to December 1992. Main outcome measures: Cost per death averted, cost per life-year gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, calculated from measures of hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, and quality of life. Results: The LIPID trial showed a 22% relative reduction in all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Over a mean follow-up of 6 years, hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and coronary revascularisation were reduced by about 20%. Over this period, pravastatin cost $A4913 per patient, but reduced total hospitalisation costs by $A1385 per patient and other long-term medication costs by $A360 per patient. In a subsample of patients, average quality of life was 0.98 (where 0 = dead and 1 = normal good health); the treatment groups were not significantly different. The absolute reduction in all-cause mortality was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), and the incremental cost was $3246 per patient, resulting in a cost per life saved of $107730 (95% Cl, $68626-$209881) within the study period. Extrapolating long-term survival from the placebo group, the undiscounted cost per life-year saved was $7695 (and $10 938 with costs and life-years discounted at an annual rate of 5%). Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy for patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina and average cholesterol levels reduces all-cause mortality and appears cost effective compared with accepted treatments in high-income countries.

Sustained high levels of foliar herbivory of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa by a moth larva Doratifera stenosa (Limacodidae) in north-eastern Australia

The moth larva, Doratifera stenosa (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), was observed feeding voraciously in great numbers on mature leaves of Rhizophora stylosa in mangroves at Port Curtis in Central Queensland, NE Australia. This behaviour was considered unusual since mangroves, and the Rhizophora species in particular, reportedly harbour few herbivores and have relatively low levels of herbivory, less than 10%. During a two year period (1996-1998), larvae were observed consuming around 30-40% of leaves in the canopy each year, and the mangroves appeared able to sustain these high levels of herbivory. The impact on trees was assessed in conjunction with a study of the herbivore, its behaviour and life history, in an attempt to explain the occurrence. Larvae were 1-2 cm in length, bright green and gregarious, with numerous small, stinging hairs along their upper bodies. Feeding was in small cohort groups of 5-70 individuals that broke up immediately prior to each moult after which they regrouped in much larger numbers of mixed cohorts to form single-file processions across branches, stems and prop roots. In this way, they moved to neighbouring trees with less affected foliage. One of the outstanding characteristics of this herbivore was its ability to desist from killing host trees although it appeared quite capable of doing so had it remained on individual trees. By moving from tree to tree, the herbivore was able to heavily crop Rhizophora foliage in an apparently sustainable manner. These findings demonstrate the role and importance of foliar herbivory in severely affected forests and how such instances best not be ignored or treated as curiosities in future assessments of herbivory and forest turnover in mangrove ecosystems.

Knowledge of the national emergency telephone number and prevalence and characteristics of those trained in CPR in Queensland: baseline information for targeted training interventions

Members of the community contribute to survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by contacting emergency medical services and performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) prior to the arrival of an ambulance. In Australia there is a paucity of information of the extent that community members know the emergency telephone number and are trained in CPR. A survey of Queensland adults (n = 4490) was conducted to ascertain current knowledge and training levels and to target CPR training. Although most respondents (88.3%) could state the Australian emergency telephone number correctly, significant age differences were apparent (P < 0.001). One in five respondents aged 60 years and older could not state the emergency number correctly. While just over half the respondents (53.9%) had completed some form of CPR training, only 12.1% had recent training. Older people were more likely to have never had CPR training than young adults. Additional demographic and socio-economic differences were found between those never trained in CPR and those who were. The results emphasise the need to increase CPR training in those aged 40 and over, particularly females, and to increase the awareness of the emergency telephone number amongst older people. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expectations of the effects of drinking on couple relationship functioning: An assessment of women in distressed relationships who consume alcohol at harmful levels

Based on a cognitive-social learning model of alcohol use, it was hypothesised that women with both alcohol and relationship problems would endorse more positive expectations of the effects of alcohol consumption on their relationship and would report lower relational efficacy than women without relationship or alcohol problems. Measures of relationship-referent alcohol expectancies and relational efficacy were completed by 174 married women with both alcohol and relationship problems (n = 20), alcohol problems alone (it = 26), relationship problems alone (n = 30), or neither problem (n = 98). Women without either alcohol or relationship problems strongly rejected expectations of enhanced relationship functioning (e.g., enhanced intimacy, increased emotional expression) following alcohol consumption, whereas women with both alcohol and relationship problems were ambivalent about these positive expectations. Women with both problems also reported lower relational efficacy than the other groups of women. Negative expectations about the effect of alcohol consumption on relationships in women with low relational efficacy may inhibit harmful drinking. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Exploring complex fitness surfaces: Multiple ornamentation and polymorphism in male guppies

The sexual ornamentation used by male guppies to attract females comprises many components, each of which varies considerably among males. Although natural and sexual selection have been shown to contribute to divergence among populations in male sexual ornaments, the role of sexual selection in maintaining polymorphism within populations is less clear. We used both parametric quadratic regression and nonparametric projection pursuit regression techniques to reveal the major axes of non-linear sexual selection on male ornaments. We visualized the fitness surfaces defined by these axes using thin-plate splines to allow a direct comparison of the two methodologies. Identification of the major axes of selection and their visualization was critical in determining the form and strength of nonlinear selection. Both types of analysis revealed fitness surfaces comprising three peaks, suggesting that there is more than one way to make an attractive guppy. Disruptive selection may be an important process underlying the presence of multiple sexual ornaments and may contribute to the maintenance of the high levels of polymorphism in male sexual ornaments found in guppy populations.