Diagnostic Systems in Medicine as Personal Intellectual Tooling

The standards of diagnostic systems formation in medicine based on modeling expert’s “means of action” in form of illegible trees of solution-making taking into consideration the criteria of credibility and usefulness have been suggested. The fragments of “applied” trees at diagnosing infectious and urological diseases have been considered as well. The possibilities of modern tooling theory usage for decision-making during creation of artificial intelligence systems have been discussed.

An improved conflicting evidence combination approach based on a new supporting probability distance

To avoid counter-intuitive result of classical Dempster's combination rule when dealing with highly conflict information, many improved combination methods have been developed through modifying the basic probability assignments (BPAs) of bodies of evidence (BOEs) by using a certain measure of the degree of conflict or uncertain information, such as Jousselme's distance, the pignistic probability distance and the ambiguity measure. However, if BOEs contain some non-singleton elements and the differences among their BPAs are larger than 0.5, the current conflict measure methods have limitations in describing the interrelationship among the conflict BOEs and may even lead to wrong combination results. In order to solve this problem, a new distance function, which is called supporting probability distance, is proposed to characterize the differences among BOEs. With the new distance, the information of how much a focal element is supported by the other focal elements in BOEs can be given. Also, a new combination rule based on the supporting probability distance is proposed for the combination of the conflicting evidences. The credibility and the discounting factor of each BOE are generated by the supporting probability distance and the weighted BOEs are combined directly using Dempster's rules. Analytical results of numerical examples show that the new distance has a better capability of describing the interrelationships among BOEs, especially for the highly conflicting BOEs containing non-singleton elements and the proposed new combination method has better applicability and effectiveness compared with the existing methods.

The EU's support for democratic governance in the Eastern neighbourhood:the role of transition experience from the New Member States

The European Union seems to place an increasing rhetorical emphasis on harnessing the transition experience of the new member states. This article examines whether the EU actually makes use of this experience in its promotion of democratic governance in the eastern neighbourhood. The main conclusion is that while reform priorities of the EU in the region are aligned with transition experience, the actual participation of actors from the new members in implementing EU-financed projects aimed at promoting democratic governance is limited. This contradiction should be resolved or it will further erode the credibility of the EU's external policies.

Why do doctored images distort memory?

Doctored images can cause people to believe in and remember experiences that never occurred, yet the underlying mechanism(s) responsible are not well understood. How does compelling false evidence distort autobiographical memory? Subjects were filmed observing and copying a Research Assistant performing simple actions, then they returned 2 days later for a memory test. Before taking the test, subjects viewed video-clips of simple actions, including actions that they neither observed nor performed earlier. We varied the format of the video-clips between-subjects to tap into the source-monitoring mechanisms responsible for the 'doctored-evidence effect.' The distribution of belief and memory distortions across conditions suggests that at least two mechanisms are involved: doctored images create an illusion of familiarity, and also enhance the perceived credibility of false suggestions. These findings offer insight into how external evidence influences source-monitoring. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strategies to optimize the impact of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies

The development of nutrition and health guidelines and policies requires reliable scientific information. Unfortunately, theoretical considerations and empirical evidence indicate that a large percentage of science-based claims rely on studies that fail to replicate. The session "Strategies to Optimize the Impact of Nutrition Surveys and Epidemiological Studies" focused on the elements of design, interpretation, and communication of nutritional surveys and epidemiological studies to enhance and encourage the production of reliable, objective evidence for use in developing dietary guidance for the public. The speakers called for more transparency of research, raw data, consistent data-staging techniques, and improved data analysis. New approaches to collecting data are urgently needed to increase the credibility and utility of findings from nutrition epidemiological studies. Such studies are critical for furthering our knowledge and understanding of the effects of diet on health.

Fiscal Federalism in Crisis: Lessons for Europe from the US

The euro area is facing crisis, while the US is not, though the overall fiscal situation and outlook is better in the euro area than in the US, and though the US faces serious state-level fiscal crises. A higher level of fiscal federalism would strengthen the euro area, but is not inevitable. Current fiscal reform proposals (strengthening of current rules, more policy coordination and an emergency financing mechanism) will if implemented result in some improvements. But implementation might be deficient or lack credibility, and could lead to disputes and carry a significant political risk. Introduction of a Eurobond covering up to 60 percent of member states’ GDP would bring about much greater levels of fiscal discipline than any other proposal, would create an attractive Eurobond market, and would deliver a strong message about the irreversible nature of European integration.

A kockázat mint látens fogalom (Risk - A latent concept)

A kockázat statisztikai értelemben közvetlenül nem mérhető, azaz látens fogalom éppen úgy, mint a gazdasági fejlettség, a szervezettség vagy az intelligencia. Mi bennünk a közös? A kockázat is komplex fogalom, több mérhető tényezőt foglal magában, és bár sok tényezőjét mérjük, fel sem tételezzük, hogy pontos eredményt kapunk. Ebben a megközelítésben az elemző kezdettől fogva tudja, hogy hiányos az ismerete. Ezt Bélyácz [2011[ nyomán úgy is megfogalmazhatjuk: „A statisztikusok tudják, hogy valamit éppen nem tudnak.” / === / From statistical point of view risk, like economic development is a latent concept. Typically there is no one number which can explicitly estimate or project risk. Variance is used as a proxy in finance to measure risk. Other professions are using other concepts for risk. Underwriting is the most important step in insurance business to analyse exposure. Actuaries evaluate average claim size and the probability of claim to calculate risk. Bayesian credibility can be used to calculate insurance premium combining frequencies and empirical knowledge, as a prior. Different types of risks can be classified into a risk matrix to separate insurable risk. Only this category can be analysed by multivariate statistical methods, which are based on statistical data. Sample size and frequency of events are relevant not only in insurance, but in pension and investment decisions as well.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Adósság, pénz és szabadság = Taxation, money and freedom

A tanulmány a Déltengeri Társasággal foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2011]). A 18. századi brit államadósság szerepéről és kezeléséről szóló modern gazdaságtörténeti értékelések áttekintése után a tanulmány részletesen bemutatja Davenant, Defoe, Bolingbroke, Hume, Wallace, Pinto, Steuart és Smith érvelését a \"közhitel\" lehetséges és szükségszerű gazdasági és politikai hatásairól, a háborús kiadások fedezésének módjairól. Részletesebben tárgyalja Hume és Smith álláspontját a papírpénz és a bankok szerepéről, a pénzmennyiség változásának következményeiről és a skóciai \"szabad\" bankrendszer jellemzőiről. A vita egyik oldalán a közhitelt szükséges, ám veszélyes eszköznek tekintették, amely válságba sodorhatja az országot, és aláássa a politikai szabadságot, a másik vélemény szerint a kereskedő állam adóssága szükséges és előnyös, ösztönzi a gazdaság fejlődését, és kifejezi a polgárok bizalmát a kormányzat iránt. / === / The study, following on from the author s previous work on the history of South Sea Company, focuses on the issue of public debt in 18th-century British economic writings. The first part reviews recent debates among economic historians: how to explain the growing credibility of British governments after 1689. The next details the arguments of some important protagonists in the early modern age - Davenant, Defoe, Bolingbroke, Hume, Wallace, Pinto, Steuart and Smith - on the expected economic and political consequences of an increasing public debt and on the methods of financing wars. This is followed by discussion of the monetary theories of Hume and Smith, notably their views on banks, credit, paper money, the effects of increasing money supply, and the features of free\" Scottish banking system. Two main lines of argument were advanced in the controversies on public debt. Several writers regarded it as a necessary but dangerous instrument that undermines political liberty and can lead the state into financial bankruptcy. Others described it as not only necessary, but advantageous to a commercial nation, by stimulating trade and development and symbolizing the public s confidence in their government.

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment.

Utilization of needs assessments by decision makers: A comparative analysis of assessment methods

The major purpose of this study was to ascertain how needs assessment findings and methodologies are accepted by public decision makers in the U.S. Virgin Islands. To accomplish this, the following five different needs assessments were executed: (1) population survey; (2) key informants survey; (3) community forum; (4) rates-under-treatment (RUT); and (5) social indicators analysis. The assessments measured unmet needs of older persons regarding transportation, in-home care, and socio-recreation services, and determined which of the five methodologies is most costly, time consuming, and valid.^ The results of a five-way comparative analysis was presented to public sector decision makers who were surveyed to determine whether they are influenced more by needs assessment findings, or by the methodology used, and to ascertain the factors that lead to their acceptance of needs assessment findings and methodologies.^ The survey results revealed that acceptance of findings and methodology is influenced by the congruency of the findings with decision makers' goals and objectives, feasibility of the findings, and credibility of the researcher.^ The study also found that decision makers are influenced equally by needs assessment findings and methodology; that they prefer population surveys, although they are the most expensive and time consuming of the methodologies; that different types of needs assessments produce different results; and, that needs assessment is an essential program planning tool. Executive decision makers are found to be influenced more by management factors than by legal and political factors, while legislative decision makers are influenced more by legal factors. Decision makers overwhelmingly view their leadership style as democratic.^ A typology of the five needs assessments, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses, is offered as a planning guide for public decision makers. ^

Jurors' use of social framework evidence

Monahan and Walker (1988) delineated three uses of social science evidence within the courts: social authority, social fact, and social framework. Social authority evidence is social science evidence used in making policy or law. Social fact evidence is social science evidence that describes research undertaken expressly for the case at hand. Social framework evidence involves providing conclusions from previously conducted social science research to assist jurors in evaluating the other evidence in the case. Although this type of evidence has traditionally been presented via expert testimony, Monahan and Walker (1988) have suggested that, because the social science research involved comes from the extant literature and is not the province of any particular expert, it would be more economical to have the judge present this information as part of the judicial instructions to the jury. This study tested the implicit assumption that the presentation of the social framework evidence by the judge will have the same impact on juror verdicts as presentation of this evidence by an expert. ^ Two hundred mock jurors watched a videotaped hostile work environment sexual harassment trial. The social framework evidence consisted of the discussion of factors that have been found to increase the likelihood of sex stereotyping of women by men. The trial included either no social framework evidence, social framework evidence presented by the expert, or social framework evidence presented in judicial instructions. ^ Results indicated that men who heard the social framework evidence from the judge were more likely to vote for the defendant than men who heard no social framework evidence. Men who heard the judicial instruction with the social framework evidence also rated the plaintiff as less credible than the other men and women in the study. Thus, it appears that, for men, social framework evidence presented by the judge harms the plaintiff's case by reducing ratings of her credibility, but the same evidence presented by an expert does not affect men's verdicts. For women, however, social framework evidence, irrespective of who presents it, enhances the plaintiff's case. ^

Juror need for cognition and sensitivity to methodological flaws in expert evidence

Two studies investigated the influence of juror need for cognition on the systematic and heuristic processing of expert evidence. U.S. citizens reporting for jury duty in South Florida read a 15-page summary of a hostile work environment case containing expert testimony. The expert described a study she had conducted on the effects of viewing sexualized materials on men's behavior toward women. Certain methodological features of the expert's research varied across experimental conditions. In Study 1 (N = 252), the expert's study was valid, contained a confound, or included the potential for experimenter bias (internal validity) and relied on a small or large sample (sample size) of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). When the expert's study included trucking employees, high need for cognition jurors in Study 1 rated the expert more credible and trustworthy than did low need for cognition jurors. Jurors were insensitive to variations in the study's internal validity or sample size. Juror ratings of plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. In Study 2 (N = 162), the expert's published or unpublished study (general acceptance) was either valid or lacked an appropriate control group (internal validity) and included a sample of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). High need for cognition jurors in Study 2 found the defendant liable more often and evaluated the expert evidence more favorably when the expert's study was internally valid than when an appropriate control group was missing. Low need for cognition jurors did not differentiate between the internally valid and invalid study. Variations in the study's general acceptance and ecological validity did not affect juror judgments. Juror ratings of expert and plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. The present research demonstrated that the need for cognition moderates juror sensitivity to expert evidence quality and that certain message-related heuristics influence juror judgments when ability or motivation to process systematically is low. ^

An analysis of teachers' perceptions of informal science professional development

Science professional development, which is fundamental to science education improvement, has been described as being weak and fragmentary. The purpose of this study was to investigate teachers' perceptions of informal science professional development to gain an in-depth understanding of the essence of the phenomenon and related science-teaching dispositions. Based on the frameworks of phenomenology, constructivism, and adult learning theory, the focus was on understanding how the phenomenon was experienced within the context of teachers' everyday world. ^ Data were collected from eight middle-school teachers purposefully selected because they had participated in informal programs during Project TRIPS (Teaching Revitalized Through Informal Programs in Science), a collaboration between the Miami-Dade school district, government agencies (including NASA), and non-profit organizations (including Audubon of Florida). In addition, the teachers experienced hands-on labs offered through universities (including the University of Arizona), field sites, and other agencies. ^ The study employed Seidman's (1991) three-interview series to collect the data. Several methods were used to enhance the credibility of the research, including using triangulation of the data. The interviews were transcribed, color-coded and organized into six themes that emerged from the data. The themes included: (a) internalized content knowledge, (b) correlated hands-on activities, (c) enhanced science-teaching disposition, (d) networking/camaraderie, (e) change of context, and (f) acknowledgment as professionals. The teachers identified supportive elements and constraints related to each theme. ^ The results indicated that informal programs offering experiential learning opportunities strengthened understanding of content knowledge. Teachers implemented hands-on activities that were explicitly correlated to their curriculum. Programs that were conducted in a relaxed context enhanced teachers' science-teaching dispositions. However, a lack of financial and administrative support, perceived safety risks, insufficient reflection time, and unclear itineraries impeded program implementation. The results illustrated how informal educators can use this cohesive model as they develop programs that address the supports and constraints to teachers' science instruction needs. This, in turn, can aid teachers as they strive to provide effective science instruction to students; notions embedded in reforms. Ultimately, this can affect how learners develop the ability to make informed science decisions that impact the quality of life on a global scale. ^

Understanding Annual Reports of Hospitality Firms

In her discussion - Understanding Annual Reports of Hospitality Firms - by Elisa S. Moncarz, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Management, Florida International University, Associate Professor Moncarz initially offers: “Management bears full responsibility for the reporting function of annual reports prepared by publicly-held companies designed to provide interested parties with information that is useful in making business and economic decisions. In Part I the author reviews the content of annual reports of firms in the hospitality industry, while looking at recent developments affecting annual reports. Part 11, in a subsequent issue, will comprise an in-depth examination of the annual report of an actual firm in the hospitality industry, focusing on suggested guidelines and recommendations for how to use annual reports as an aid to the decision-making process in the hospitality industry.” This article is to be considered a primer on reading and understanding annual reports, as well as a glimpse into the dynamics that affect them. In defining what an annual report is, Associate Professor Moncarz informs you with citation, “Annual reports are required by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) ¹ for all companies with securities sold to the general public. These reports, which must be issued within 90 days after the close of the calendar (or fiscal) year, comprise a primary source of information about these companies,” she further reports. “Indeed, the official version of the company's history is summed up yearly in its annual report by providing full information of the company's operations over the period as well as what the company is gearing up to accomplish in the next year,” Professor Moncarz closes the definition. Why should thus happen over and above SEC requirements? The financial component is an important one; the author offers her informed view: “The major objective of financial statement reporting is to provide information that is useful to present and potential investors, creditors, and other financial statement users in making rational investment, credit, and similar decisions. Thus, financial statements represent the primary (and most reliable) source of knowledge about a particular firm in the hospitality industry.” The above two paragraphs crystallize the requirement and the objective of annual reports. “A typical annual report of a hospitality firm contains a number of standard features which may be broken down into the following three sections…” General, financial data, and supplementary data are variously bounded and circumscribed for you. As a marketing device and feel-good initiative, the annual report is a useful tool for a hospitality corporation that is in-the-black, and focused on the future, says the author. She cites the Marriott Corporation’s 1985 annual report as an example. Of course, an annual report can also be a harbinger of bad news for shareholders as well. Notes/footnotes and disclosure are key elements to the credibility of any annual report; Professor Moncarz discusses these concepts at length. “Given the likelihood that the hospitality industry will continue to face an uncertain economic environment for some time, financial statement users should become more demanding in their need for information that will help assure the firm's survival and evaluate its ability to generate earnings, increase the firm's investment value, and provide for its future growth,” Professor Moncarz says. “Accordingly, understanding annual reports in the hospitality industry should become even more critical.”