Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Working memory and working attention: What could possibly evolve?

The concept of “working” memory is traceable back to nineteenth century theorists (Baldwin, 1894; James 1890) but the term itself was not used until the mid-twentieth century (Miller, Galanter & Pribram, 1960). A variety of different explanatory constructs have since evolved which all make use of the working memory label (Miyake & Shah, 1999). This history is briefly reviewed and alternative formulations of working memory (as language-processor, executive attention, and global workspace) are considered as potential mechanisms for cognitive change within and between individuals and between species. A means, derived from the literature on human problem-solving (Newell & Simon, 1972), of tracing memory and computational demands across a single task is described and applied to two specific examples of tool-use by chimpanzees and early hominids. The examples show how specific proposals for necessary and/or sufficient computational and memory requirements can be more rigorously assessed on a task by task basis. General difficulties in connecting cognitive theories (arising from the observed capabilities of individuals deprived of material support) with archaeological data (primarily remnants of material culture) are discussed.

GIS in the cloud: implementing a web map service on Google App Engine

Many producers of geographic information are now disseminating their data using open web service protocols, notably those published by the Open Geospatial Consortium. There are many challenges inherent in running robust and reliable services at reasonable cost. Cloud computing provides a new kind of scalable infrastructure that could address many of these challenges. In this study we implement a Web Map Service for raster imagery within the Google App Engine environment. We discuss the challenges of developing GIS applications within this framework and the performance characteristics of the implementation. Results show that the application scales well to multiple simultaneous users and performance will be adequate for many applications, although concerns remain over issues such as latency spikes. We discuss the feasibility of implementing services within the free usage quotas of Google App Engine and the possibility of extending the approaches in this paper to other GIS applications.

How could construction supply chain benefit from RFID/GPS integration: a knowledge management perspective

Construction materials and equipment are essential building blocks of every construction project and may account for 50-60 per cent of the total cost of construction. The rate of their utilization, on the other hand, is the element that most directly relates to a project progress. A growing concern in the industry that inadequate efficiency hinders its success could thus be accommodated by turning construction into a logistic process. Although mostly limited, recent attempts and studies show that Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) applications have significant potentials in construction. However, the aim of this research is to show that the technology itself should not only be used for automation and tracking to overcome the supply chain complexity but also as a tool to generate, record and exchange process-related knowledge among the supply chain stakeholders. This would enable all involved parties to identify and understand consequences of any forthcoming difficulties and react accordingly before they cause major disruptions in the construction process. In order to achieve this aim the study focuses on a number of methods. First of all it develops a generic understanding of how RFID technology has been used in logistic processes in industrial supply chain management. Secondly, it investigates recent applications of RFID as an information and communication technology support facility in construction logistics for the management of construction supply chain. Based on these the study develops an improved concept of a construction logistics architecture that explicitly relies on integrating RFID with the Global Positioning System (GPS). The developed conceptual model architecture shows that categorisation provided through RFID and traceability as a result of RFID/GPS integration could be used as a tool to identify, record and share potential problems and thus vastly improve knowledge management processes within the entire supply chain. The findings thus clearly show a need for future research in this area.

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMP)-4,-6, and-7 potently suppress basal and luteinizing hormone-induced androgen production by bovine theca interna cells in primary culture: Could ovarian hyperandrogenic dysfunction be caused by a defect in thecal BMP signaling?

We reported recently that bovine theca interna cells in primary culture express several type-I and type-II receptors for bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs). The same cells express at least two potential ligands for these receptors (BMP-4 and - 7), whereas bovine granulosa cells and oocytes express BMP-6. Therefore, BMPs of intrafollicular origin may exert autocrine/paracrine actions to modulate theca cell function. Here we report that BMP-4, - 6, and - 7 potently suppress both basal ( P < 0.0001; respective IC50 values, 0.78, 0.30, and 1.50 ng/ml) and LH-induced ( P < 0.0001; respective IC50 values, 5.00, 0.55, and 4.55 ng/ml) androgen production by bovine theca cells while having only a moderate effect on progesterone production and cell number. Semiquantitative RT-PCR showed that all three BMPs markedly reduced steady-state levels of mRNA for P450c17. Levels of mRNA encoding steroidogenic acute regulatory protein, P450scc, and 3 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase were also reduced but to a much lesser extent. Immunocytochemistry confirmed a marked reduction in cellular content of P450c17 protein after BMP treatment ( P < 0.001). Exposure to BMPs led to cellular accumulation of phosphorylated Smad1, but not Smad2, confirming that the receptors signal via a Smad1 pathway. The specificity of the BMP response was further explored by coincubating cells with BMPs and several potential BMP antagonists, chordin, gremlin, and follistatin. Gremlin and chordin were found to be effective antagonists of BMP-4 and - 7, respectively, and the observation that both antagonists enhanced ( P < 0.01) androgen production in the absence of exogenous BMP suggests an autocrine/paracrine role for theca-derived BMP- 4 and - 7 in modulating androgen production. Collectively, these data indicate that an intrafollicular BMP signaling pathway contributes to the negative regulation of thecal androgen production and that ovarian hyperandrogenic dysfunction could be a result of a defective autoregulatory pathway involving thecal BMP signaling.

Endocrine disrupters and human health: Could oestrogenic chemicals in body care cosmetics adversely affect breast cancer incidence in women? A review of evidence and call for further research

In the decade that has elapsed since the suggestion that exposure of the foetal/developing male to environmental oestrogens could be the cause of subsequent reproductive and developmental effects in men, there has been little definitive research to provide conclusions to the hypothesis. Issues of exposure and low potency of environmental oestrogens may have reduced concerns. However, the hypothesis that chemicals applied in body care cosmetics (including moisturizers, creams, sprays or lotions applied to axilla or chest or breast areas) may be affecting breast cancer incidence in women presents a different case scenario, not least in the consideration of the exposure issues. The specific cosmetic type is not relevant but the chemical ingredients in the formulations and the application to the skin is important. The most common group of body care cosmetic formulation excipients, namely p-hydroxybenzoic acid esters or parabens, have been shown recently to be oestrogenic in vitro and in vivo and now have been detected in human breast tumour tissue, indicating absorption (route and causal associations have yet to be confirmed). The hypothesis for a link between oestrogenic ingredients in underarm and body care cosmetics and breast cancer is forwarded and reviewed here in terms of. data on exposure to body care cosmetics and parabens, including dermal absorption; paraben oestrogenicity; the role of oestrogen in breast cancer; detection of parabens in breast tumours; recent epidemiology studies of underarm cosmetics use and breast cancer; the toxicology database; the current regulatory status of parabens and regulatory toxicology data uncertainties. Notwithstanding the major public health issue of the causes of the rising incidence of breast cancer in women, this call for further research may provide the first evidence that environmental factors may be adversely affecting human health by endocrine disruption, because exposure to oestrogenic chemicals through application of body care products (unlike diffuse environmental chemical exposures) should be amenable to evaluation, quantification and control. The exposure issues are clear and the exposed population is large, and these factors should provide the necessary impetus to investigate this potential issue of public health. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Exploring context-awareness in the construction logistics services delivery

Managing a construction project supply chain effectively and efficiently is extremely difficult due to involvement of numerous sectors that are supported by ineffective communication system. An efficient construction supply chain system ensures the delivery of materials and other services to construction site while minimising costs and rewarding all sectors based on value added to the supply chain. The advancement of information, communication and wireless technologies is driving construction companies to deploy supply chain management strategies to seek better outputs. As part of the emerging wireless technologies, contextaware computing capability represents the next generation of ICT to the construction services. Conceptually, context-awareness could be integrated with Web Services in order to ensure the delivery of pertinent information to construction site and enhance construction supply chain collaboration. An initial study has indicated that this integrated system has the potential of serving and improving the construction services delivery through access to context-specific data, information and services on as-needed basis.

Intelligent wireless web services: context-aware computing in construction-logistics supply chain

The construction industry has incurred a considerable amount of waste as a result of poor logistics supply chain network management. Therefore, managing logistics in the construction industry is critical. An effective logistic system ensures delivery of the right products and services to the right players at the right time while minimising costs and rewarding all sectors based on value added to the supply chain. This paper reports on an on-going research study on the concept of context-aware services delivery in the construction project supply chain logistics. As part of the emerging wireless technologies, an Intelligent Wireless Web (IWW) using context-aware computing capability represents the next generation ICT application to construction-logistics management. This intelligent system has the potential of serving and improving the construction logistics through access to context-specific data, information and services. Existing mobile communication deployments in the construction industry rely on static modes of information delivery and do not take into account the worker’s changing context and dynamic project conditions. The major problems in these applications are lack of context-specificity in the distribution of information, services and other project resources, and lack of cohesion with the existing desktop based ICT infrastructure. The research works focus on identifying the context dimension such as user context, environmental context and project context, selection of technologies to capture context-parameters such wireless sensors and RFID, selection of supporting technologies such as wireless communication, Semantic Web, Web Services, agents, etc. The process of integration of Context-Aware Computing and Web-Services to facilitate the creation of intelligent collaboration environment for managing construction logistics will take into account all the necessary critical parameters such as storage, transportation, distribution, assembly, etc. within off and on-site project.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.