Diagnosi i pla de gestió ambiental del casal de joves de Haër (Senegal)

Per tal de fer front al deteriorament i la destrucció de l’única infraestructura comuna per a joves existent al barri de Haër (M’lomp), l’associació de joves “Les Criquets de Haër” ha dut a terme un projecte de construcció d’un Casal de Joves, el qual pretén fer front no només a la manca d’infraestructures sinó també a la falta de tallers en condicions, de llocs de treball i d’espai agrícola. Amb l’objectiu de construir un centre integrat en el medi i amb capacitat per atendre les necessitats tant dels joves de Haër com d’altres poblacions properes, s’ha optat per realitzar una diagnosi ambiental del terreny on es construirà el complex. La informació obtinguda en aquesta diagnosi ha permès determinar els possibles impactes que la construcció del casal pot suposar per al medi i, a partir d’aquí, elaborar un pla de gestió ambiental dissenyant les mesures correctores més adequades per a la mitigació dels impactes detectats. Les actuacions plantejades en el Pla de gestió ambiental s’han dissenyat tenint en compte el context social i econòmic en el qual es desenvolupen les obres, així com també la predisposició de la població per a dur-les a terme i garantir-ne la continuïtat.

Switch to Sirolimus-based immunosuppresion in stable renal transplant recipients

Purpose: Sirolimus (SRL) has been used to replace calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) for various indications including CNI-induced toxicity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of switching from CNI to SRL in stable renal transplant recipients (RTR) with low grade proteinuria (<1 g/24 h). Methods and materials: Between 2001 and 2007, 41 patients (20 females, 21 males; mean age 47 ± 13) were switched after a median time post-transplantation of 73.5 months (range 0.2-273.2 months). Indications for switch were CNI nephrotoxicity (39%), thrombotic micro-angiopathy (14.6%), post-transplantation cancer (24.4%), CNI neurotoxicity (7.4%), or others (14.6%). Mean follow-up after SRL switch was 23.8±16.3 months. Mean SRL dosage and through levels were 2.4 ± 1.1 mg/day and 8 ± 2.2 ug/l respectively. Immunosuppressive regiments were SRL + mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (31.7%), SRL + MMF + prednisone (36.58%), SRL + prednisone (19.51%), SRL + Azathioprine (9.75%), or SRL alone (2.43%). Results: Mean creatinine decreased from 164 to 143 μmol/l (p <0.03), mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased significantly from 50.13 to 55.01 ml/minute (p <0.00001), mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased from 138 to 132 mm Hg (p <0.03) and from 83 to78 mm Hg (p <0.01), but mean proteinuria increased from 0.21 to 0.63 g/24 h (p <0.001). While mean total cholesterolemia didn't increased significantly from 5.09 to 5.56 mmol/l (p = 0.06). The main complications after SRL switch were dermatitis (19.5%), urinary tract infections (24.4%), ankle edema (13.3%), and transient oral ulcers (20%). Acute rejection after the switch occurred in 7.3% of patients (n = 3), and 2 acute rejections were successfully treated with corticosteroids and 1 did not respond to treatment (not related to switch). SRL had to be discontinued in 17% of patients (2 nephrotic syndromes, 2 severe edema, 1 acute rejection, 1 thrombotic micro-angiopathy, and 1 fever). Conclusion: In conclusion, we found that switching from CNI to SRL in stable RTR was safe and associated with a significant improvement of renal function and blood pressure. Known side-effects of SRL led to drug discontinuation in less than 20% of patients and the acute rejection rate was 7.3%. This experience underlines the importance of patient selection before switching to SRL, in particular regarding preswitch proteinuria.

Estudi neurofisiològic del control executiu de l'atenció en l'esquizofrènia

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Departament de Psicologia de la Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain, from May until July 2006. Abnormalities in executive functions, including set shifting ability, represent a cardinal feature in schizophrenia. This ability to adapt behavior to changing environmental events or contingencies requires a mechanism for switching attention between learned stimulus-response associations, or task-sets. This project aimed at gaining further knowledge on the brain mechanisms related to the executive control of attention in schizophrenia during the performace of a task switching paradigm. Furthermore, a secondary goal was to further examine the interrelationships between endogenous and exogenous control processes in task set switching.

Alveolar macrophages and lung dendritic cells sense RNA and drive mucosal IgA responses.

The mechanisms regulating systemic and mucosal IgA responses in the respiratory tract are incompletely understood. Using virus-like particles loaded with single-stranded RNA as a ligand for TLR7, we found that systemic vs mucosal IgA responses in mice were differently regulated. Systemic IgA responses following s.c. immunization were T cell independent and did not require TACI or TGFbeta, whereas mucosal IgA production was dependent on Th cells, TACI, and TGFbeta. Strikingly, both responses required TLR7 signaling, but systemic IgA depended upon TLR7 signaling directly to B cells whereas mucosal IgA required TLR7 signaling to lung dendritic cells and alveolar macrophages. Our data show that IgA switching is controlled differently according to the cell type receiving TLR signals. This knowledge should facilitate the development of IgA-inducing vaccines.

Avoidance Policies – A New Conceptual Framework

This paper develops a general theoretical framework within which a heterogeneous group taxpayers confront a market that supplies a variety of schemes for reducing tax liability, and uses this framework to explore the impact of a wide range of anti-avoidance policies. Schemes differ in their legal effectiveness and hence in the risks to which they expose taxpayers - risks which go beyond the risk of audit considered in the conventional literature on evasion. Given the individual taxpayer’s circumstances, the prices charged for the schemes and the policy environment, the model predicts (i) whether or not any given taxpayer will acquire a scheme, and (ii) if they do so, which type of scheme they will acquire. The paper then analyses how these decisions, and hence the tax gap, are influenced by four generic types of policy: Disclosure – earlier information leading to faster closure of loopholes; Penalties – introduction of penalties for failed avoidance; Policy Design – fundamental policy changes that design out opportunities for avoidance; Product Register - the introduction of GAARs or mini-GAARs that give greater clarity about how different types of scheme will be treated. The paper shows that when considering the indirect/behavioural effects of policies on the tax gap it is important to recognise that these operate on two different margins. First policies will have deterrence effects – their impact on the quantum of taxpayers choosing to acquire different types schemes as distinct to acquiring no scheme at all. There will be a range of such deterrence effects reflecting the range of schemes available in the market. But secondly, since different schemes generate different tax gaps, policies will also have switching effects as they induce taxpayers who previously acquired one type of scheme to acquire another. The first three types of policy generate positive deterrence effects but differ in the switching effects they produce. The fourth type of policy produces mixed deterrence effects.

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy

The implications of local currency pricing (LCP) for monetary regime choice are analysed for a country facing foreign monetary shocks. In this analysis expenditure switching is potentially welfare reducing. This contrasts with the existing LCP literature, which focuses on productivity shocks and thus analyses a world where expenditure switching is welfare enhancing. This paper shows that, when home and foreign producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is absent and a floating rate is preferred by the home country. But when only home producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is present and a fixed rate can be welfare enhancing for the home country.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Distinct neurophysiological mechanisms mediate mixing costs and switch costs.

Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we investigated the neural response associated with preparing to switch from one task to another. We used a cued task-switching paradigm in which the interval between the cue and the imperative stimulus was varied. The difference between response time (RT) to trials on which the task switched and trials on which the task repeated (switch cost) decreased as the interval between cue and target (CTI) was increased, demonstrating that subjects used the CTI to prepare for the forthcoming task. However, the RT on repeated-task trials in blocks during which the task could switch (mixed-task blocks) were never as short as RTs during single-task blocks (mixing cost). This replicates previous research. The ERPs in response to the cue were compared across three conditions: single-task trials, switch trials, and repeat trials. ERP topographic differences were found between single-task trials and mixed-task (switch and repeat) trials at approximately 160 and approximately 310 msec after the cue, indicative of changes in the underlying neural generator configuration as a basis for the mixing cost. In contrast, there were no topographic differences evident between switch and repeat trials during the CTI. Rather, the response of statistically indistinguishable generator configurations was stronger at approximately 310 msec on switch than on repeat trials. By separating differences in ERP topography from differences in response strength, these results suggest that a reappraisal of previous research is appropriate.

How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy - commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov switching in shock variances, the inflation target and/or rule parameters, the data preferred description of policy is that the US Fed operates under discretion with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. Parameter estimates are similar to those obtained under simple rules, except that the degree of habits is significantly lower and the prevalence of cost-push shocks greater. Moreover, we find that the greatest welfare gains from the ‘Great Moderation’ arose from the reduction in the variances in shocks hitting the economy, rather than increased inflation aversion. However, much of the high inflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had policy makers been able to commit, even without adopting stronger anti-inflation objectives. More recently the Fed appears to have temporarily relaxed policy following the 1987 stock market crash, and has lost, without regaining, its post-Volcker conservatism following the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

A cost-benefit analisys of chagas disease control

Chagas disease transmission can be effetively interrupted by insecticidal control of its triatomine bug vectors. We present here a simple model comparing the costs and benefits of such a programme, designed to eliminate domestic populations of Triatoma infestans throughout its known area of distribution over the seven southernmost countries of Latin America. The model has been simplified to require only four financial estimates relating to the unit cost of housing spraying and benefits due to avoidance of premature death in the acute phase of the disease, avoidance of supportive treatment and care in the chronic phase of the disease, and avoidance of corrective digestive and cardiac surgery. Exceptfor these direct medical costs, al other potential benefits have been ignored. Nevertheless, the model shows that the direct financial benefits of such a programme would far outweigh the costs, and the project would support a remarkably high internal rate of return under the least optimistic estimates.