Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Direct Observation of Photodissociation Products from Phenylperoxyl Radicals Isolated in the Gas Phase

Gas phase peroxyl radicals are central to our chemical understanding of combustion and atmospheric processes and are typically characterized by strong absorption in the UV (lambda(max) approximate to 240 nm). The analogous maximum absorption feature for arylperoxyl radicals is predicted to shift to the visible but has not previously been characterized nor have any photoproducts arising from this transition been identified. Here we describe the controlled synthesis and isolation in vacuo of an array of charge-substituted phenylperoxyl radicals at room temperature, including the 4-(N,N,N-trimethylammonium)methyl phenylperoxyl radical cation (4-Me3N[+]CH2-C6H4OO center dot), using linear ion-trap mass spectrometry. Photodissociation mass spectra obtained at wavelengths ranging from 310 to 500 nm reveal two major photoproduct channels corresponding to homolysis of aryl-OO and arylO-O bonds resulting in loss of O-2 and O, respectively. Combining the photodissociation yields across this spectral window produces a broad (FWHM approximate to 60 nm) but clearly resolved feature centered at lambda(max) = 403 nm (3.08 eV). The influence of the charge-tag identity and its proximity to the radical site are investigated and demonstrate no effect on the identity of the two dominant photoproduct channels. Electronic structure calculations have located the vertical (B) over tilde <- (X) over tilde transition of these substituted phenylperoxyl radicals within the experimental uncertainty and further predict the analogous transition for unsubstituted phenylperoxyl radical (C6H5OO center dot) to be 457 nm (2.71 eV), nearly 45 nm shorter than previous estimates and in good agreement with recent computational values.

Using pulse transit delay in Z-scan to discriminate between excited-state absorption and other nonlinear processes in ZnO nanocones

We report a new approach that uses the single beam Z-scan technique, to discriminate between excited state absorption (ESA) and two and three photon nonlinear absorption. By measuring the apparent delay or advance of the pulse in reaching the detector, the nonlinear absorption can be unambiguously identified as either instantaneous or transient. The simple method does not require a large range of input fluences or sophisticated pulse-probe experimental apparatus. The technique is easily extended to any absorption process dependent on pulse width and to nonlinear refraction measurements. We demonstrate in particular, that the large nonlinear absorption in ZnO nanocones when exposed to nanosecond 532 nm pulses, is due mostly to ESA, not pure two-photon absorption.

Multiscale coupling and multiphysics approaches in earth sciences : applications

Geoscientists are confronted with the challenge of assessing nonlinear phenomena that result from multiphysics coupling across multiple scales from the quantum level to the scale of the earth and from femtoseconds to the 4.5 Ga of history of our planet. We neglect in this review electromagnetic modelling of the processes in the Earth’s core, and focus on four types of couplings that underpin fundamental instabilities in the Earth. These are thermal (T), hydraulic (H), mechanical (M) and chemical (C) processes which are driven and controlled by the transfer of heat to the Earth’s surface. Instabilities appear as faults, folds, compaction bands, shear/fault zones, plate boundaries and convective patterns. Convective patterns emerge from buoyancy overcoming viscous drag at a critical Rayleigh number. All other processes emerge from non-conservative thermodynamic forces with a critical critical dissipative source term, which can be characterised by the modified Gruntfest number Gr. These dissipative processes reach a quasi-steady state when, at maximum dissipation, THMC diffusion (Fourier, Darcy, Biot, Fick) balance the source term. The emerging steady state dissipative patterns are defined by the respective diffusion length scales. These length scales provide a fundamental thermodynamic yardstick for measuring instabilities in the Earth. The implementation of a fully coupled THMC multiscale theoretical framework into an applied workflow is still in its early stages. This is largely owing to the four fundamentally different lengths of the THMC diffusion yardsticks spanning micro-metre to tens of kilometres compounded by the additional necessity to consider microstructure information in the formulation of enriched continua for THMC feedback simulations (i.e., micro-structure enriched continuum formulation). Another challenge is to consider the important factor time which implies that the geomaterial often is very far away from initial yield and flowing on a time scale that cannot be accessed in the laboratory. This leads to the requirement of adopting a thermodynamic framework in conjunction with flow theories of plasticity. This framework allows, unlike consistency plasticity, the description of both solid mechanical and fluid dynamic instabilities. In the applications we show the similarity of THMC feedback patterns across scales such as brittle and ductile folds and faults. A particular interesting case is discussed in detail, where out of the fluid dynamic solution, ductile compaction bands appear which are akin and can be confused with their brittle siblings. The main difference is that they require the factor time and also a much lower driving forces to emerge. These low stress solutions cannot be obtained on short laboratory time scales and they are therefore much more likely to appear in nature than in the laboratory. We finish with a multiscale description of a seminal structure in the Swiss Alps, the Glarus thrust, which puzzled geologists for more than 100 years. Along the Glarus thrust, a km-scale package of rocks (nappe) has been pushed 40 km over its footwall as a solid rock body. The thrust itself is a m-wide ductile shear zone, while in turn the centre of the thrust shows a mm-cm wide central slip zone experiencing periodic extreme deformation akin to a stick-slip event. The m-wide creeping zone is consistent with the THM feedback length scale of solid mechanics, while the ultralocalised central slip zones is most likely a fluid dynamic instability.

The development of an effective and efficient dispute resolution processes for strata scheme disputes in peninsular Malaysia

Dispute resolution in strata schemes in Peninsular Malaysia should focus on more than just "settlement." The quality of the outcome, its sustainability and its relevance in supporting the basic principles of a good neighbourhood and self-governance in a strata scheme are also fundamental. Based on the comprehensive law movement, this thesis develops a theoretical framework for strata scheme disputes within the parameters of therapeutic jurisprudence, preventive law, alternative dispute resolution (ADR) and problem-solving courts. The therapeutic orientation of this model offers approaches that promote positive communication between disputing parties, preserve neighbour relations and optimise people's psychological and emotional well-being.

Research participation by people with intellectual disability and mental health issues : an examination of the processes of consent

Balancing the demands of research and ethics is always challenging and even more so when recruiting vulnerable groups. Within the context of current legislation and international human rights declarations, it is strongly advocated that research can and must be undertaken with all recipients of health care services. Research in the field of intellectual disability presents particular challenges in regard to consenting processes. This paper is a critical reflection and analysis of the complex processes undertaken and events that occurred in gaining informed consent from people with intellectual disability to participate in a study exploring their experiences of being an inpatient in mental health hospitals within Aotearoa/New Zealand. A framework based on capacity, information and voluntariness is presented with excerpts from the field provided to explore consenting processes. The practical implications of the processes utilised are then discussed in order to stimulate debate regarding clearer and enhanced methods of gaining informed consent from people with intellectual disability.

Can ginger ameliorate chemotherapy-induced nausea? Protocol of a randomized double blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Preliminary research shows ginger may be an effective adjuvant treatment for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting but significant limitations need to be addressed before recommendations for clinical practice can be made. Methods/Design In a double–blinded randomised-controlled trial, chemotherapy-naïve patients will be randomly allocated to receive either 1.2 g of a standardised ginger extract or placebo per day. The study medication will be administrated as an adjuvant treatment to standard anti-emetic therapy and will be divided into four capsules per day, to be consumed approximately every 4 hours (300 mg per capsule administered q.i.d) for five days during the first three cycles of chemotherapy. Acute, delayed, and anticipatory symptoms of nausea and vomiting will be assessed over this time frame using a valid and reliable questionnaire, with nausea symptoms being the primary outcome. Quality of life, nutritional status, adverse effects, patient adherence, cancer-related fatigue, and CINV-specific prognostic factors will also be assessed. Discussion Previous trials in this area have noted limitations. These include the inconsistent use of standardized ginger formulations and valid questionnaires, lack of control for anticipatory nausea and prognostic factors that may influence individual CINV response, and the use of suboptimal dosing regimens. This trial is the first to address these issues by incorporating multiple unique additions to the study design including controlling for CINV-specific prognostic factors by recruiting only chemotherapy-naïve patients, implementing a dosing schedule consistent with the pharmacokinetics of oral ginger supplements, and independently analysing ginger supplements before and after recruitment to ensure potency. Our trial will also be the first to assess the effect of ginger supplementation on cancer-related fatigue and nutritional status. Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting are distressing symptoms experienced by oncology patients; this trial will address the significant limitations within the current literature and in doing so, will investigate the effect of ginger supplementation as an adjuvant treatment in modulating nausea and vomiting symptoms. Trial registration

Making YAWL and SmartPM interoperate : managing highly dynamic processes by exploiting automatic adaptation features

In the last years, the trade-o between exibility and sup- port has become a leading issue in work ow technology. In this paper we show how an imperative modeling approach used to de ne stable and well-understood processes can be complemented by a modeling ap- proach that enables automatic process adaptation and exploits planning techniques to deal with environmental changes and exceptions that may occur during process execution. To this end, we designed and imple- mented a Custom Service that allows the Yawl execution environment to delegate the execution of subprocesses and activities to the SmartPM execution environment, which is able to automatically adapt a process to deal with emerging changes and exceptions. We demonstrate the fea- sibility and validity of the approach by showing the design and execution of an emergency management process de ned for train derailments.

Controlled automated discovery of collections of business process models

Automated process discovery techniques aim at extracting process models from information system logs. Existing techniques in this space are effective when applied to relatively small or regular logs, but generate spaghetti-like and sometimes inaccurate models when confronted to logs with high variability. In previous work, trace clustering has been applied in an attempt to reduce the size and complexity of automatically discovered process models. The idea is to split the log into clusters and to discover one model per cluster. This leads to a collection of process models – each one representing a variant of the business process – as opposed to an all-encompassing model. Still, models produced in this way may exhibit unacceptably high complexity and low fitness. In this setting, this paper presents a two-way divide-and-conquer process discovery technique, wherein the discovered process models are split on the one hand by variants and on the other hand hierarchically using subprocess extraction. Splitting is performed in a controlled manner in order to achieve user-defined complexity or fitness thresholds. Experiments on real-life logs show that the technique produces collections of models substantially smaller than those extracted by applying existing trace clustering techniques, while allowing the user to control the fitness of the resulting models.

Hypergraph-based modeling of ad-hoc business processes

Process models are usually depicted as directed graphs, with nodes representing activities and directed edges control flow. While structured processes with pre-defined control flow have been studied in detail, flexible processes including ad-hoc activities need further investigation. This paper presents flexible process graph, a novel approach to model processes in the context of dynamic environment and adaptive process participants’ behavior. The approach allows defining execution constraints, which are more restrictive than traditional ad-hoc processes and less restrictive than traditional control flow, thereby balancing structured control flow with unstructured ad-hoc activities. Flexible process graph focuses on what can be done to perform a process. Process participants’ routing decisions are based on the current process state. As a formal grounding, the approach uses hypergraphs, where each edge can associate any number of nodes. Hypergraphs are used to define execution semantics of processes formally. We provide a process scenario to motivate and illustrate the approach.

A controlled, rapid approach to curriculum change

Teachers are continually bombarded with change programs for improvements in areas such as literacy and numeracy, however; the focus is often on the program and not on results (Pertuzé, Calder, Greitzer & Lucas, 2010). When the inevitable failure follows (Fullan, 2005; Gross, Giacquinta & Bernstein, 1971)the school moves on to a new activities-based model.

A 5- versus 3-day course of oral corticosteroids for children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised : a randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine whether a 5-day course of oral prednisolone is superior to a 3-day course in reducing the 2-week morbidity of children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised. Design, setting and participants Double-blind randomised controlled trial of asthma outcomes following a 5-day course of oral prednisolone (1 mg/kg) compared with a 3-day course of prednisolone plus placebo for 2 days. Participants were children aged 2–15 years who presented to the emergency departments of three Queensland hospitals between March 2004 and February 2007 with an acute exacerbation of asthma, but were not hospitalised. Sample size was defined a priori for a study power of 90%. Main outcome measures Difference in proportion of children who were symptom-free at Day 7, as measured by intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol analysis; quality of life (QOL) on Days 7 and 14. Results 201 children were enrolled, and there was an 82% completion rate. There was no difference between groups in the proportion of children who were symptom-free (observed difference, 0.04 [95% CI, − 0.09 to 0.18] by ITT analysis; 0.04 [95% CI, − 0.17 to 0.09] by per-protocol analysis). There was also no difference between groups in QOL (P = 0.42). The difference between groups for the primary outcome was within the equivalence range calculated post priori. Conclusion A 5-day course of oral prednisolone confers no advantage over a 3-day course for children with asthma exacerbations who are not hospitalised.

Randomised controlled trial of amoxycillin clavulanate in children with chronic wet cough

Background Despite guideline recommendations, there are no published randomised controlled trial data on the efficacy of antibiotics for chronic wet cough in children. The majority of children with chronic wet cough have protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), a recognised condition in multiple national guidelines. The authors conducted a parallel 1:1 placebo randomised controlled trial to test the hypothesis that a 2-week course of amoxycillin clavulanate is efficacious in the treatment of children with chronic wet cough. Methods 50 children (median age 1.9 years, IQR 0.9–5.1) with chronic (>3 weeks) wet cough were randomised to 2 weeks of twice daily oral amoxycillin clavulanate (22.5 mg/kg/dose) or placebo. The primary outcome was ‘cough resolution’ defined as a >75% reduction in the validated verbal category descriptive cough score within 14 days of treatment compared with baseline scores, or cessation of cough for >3 days. In selected children, flexible bronchoscopy and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were undertaken at baseline. Results Cough resolution rates (48%) were significantly higher in children who received amoxycillin clavulanate compared with those who received placebo (16%), p=0.016. The observed difference between proportions was 0.32 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.56). Post treatment, median verbal category descriptive score in the amoxycillin clavulanate group of 0.5 (IQR 0.0–2.0) was significantly lower than in the placebo group, 2.25 (IQR 1.15–2.9) (p=0.02). Pre-treatment BAL data were consistent with PBB in the majority of children, with no significant difference between groups. Conclusion A 2-week course of amoxycillin clavulanate will achieve cough resolution in a significant number of children with chronic wet cough. BAL data support the diagnosis of PBB in the majority of these children.

Management based on exhaled nitric oxidelevels adjusted for atopy reduces asthma exacerbations in children : A dual centre randomised controlled trial

While several randomised control trials (RCTs) have evaluated the use of fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) to improve asthma outcomes, none used FeNO cut-offs adjusted for atopy, a determinant of FeNO levels. In a dual centre RCT, we assessed whether a treatment strategy based on FeNO levels, adjusted for atopy, reduces asthma exacerbations compared with the symptoms-based management (controls). Children with asthma from hospital clinics of two hospitals were randomly allocated to receive an a-priori determined treatment hierarchy based on symptoms or FeNO levels. There was a 2-week run-in period and they were then reviewed ten times over 12-months. The primary outcome was the number of children with exacerbations over 12-months. Sixty-three children were randomised (FeNO=31, controls=32); 55 (86%) completed the study. Although we did achieve our planned sample size, significantly fewer children in the FeNO group (6 of 27) had an asthma exacerbation compared to controls (15 of 28), p=0.021; number to treat for benefit=4 (95%CI 3-24). There was no difference between groups for any secondary outcomes (quality of life, symptoms, FEV1). The final daily inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) dose was significantly (p=0.037) higher in the FeNO group (median 400µg, IQR 250-600) compared to the controls (200, IQR100-400). Taking atopy into account when using FeNO to tailor asthma medications is likely beneficial in reducing the number of children with severe exacerbations at the expense of increased ICS use. However, the strategy is unlikely beneficial for improving asthma control. A larger study is required to confirm or refute our findings.

Framework of a process laboratory for the operational control of service processes

Service processes such as financial advice, booking a business trip or conducting a consulting project have emerged as units of analysis of high interest for the business process and service management communities in practice and academia. While the transactional nature of production processes is relatively well understood and deployed, the less predictable and highly interactive nature of service processes still lacks in many areas appropriate methodological grounding. This paper proposes a framework of a process laboratory as a new IT artefact in order to facilitate the holistic analysis and simulation of such service processes. Using financial services as an example, it will be shown how such a process laboratory can be used to reduce the complexity of service process analysis and facilitate operational service process control.