Forest fires cluster detection with space-time scan statistics

Forest fires are defined as uncontrolled fires often occurring in wildland areas, but that can also affect houses or agricultural resources. Causes are both natural (e.g.,lightning phenomena) and anthropogenic (human negligence or arsons).Major environmental factors influencing the fire ignition and propagation are climate and vegetation. Wildfires are most common and severe during drought period and on windy days. Moreover, under water-stress conditions, which occur after a long hot and dry period, the vegetation is more vulnerable to fire. These conditions are common in the United State and Canada, where forest fires represent a big problem. We focused our analysis on the state of Florida, for which a big dataset on forest fires detection is readily available. USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Application Center, in collaboration with NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, has compiled daily MODIS Thermal Anomalies (fires and biomass burning images) produced by NASA using a contextual algorithm that exploits the strong emission of mid-infrared radiation from fires. Fire classes were converted in GIS format: daily MODIS fire detections are provided as the centroids of the 1 kilometer pixels and compiled into daily Arc/INFO point coverage.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm

Le rétinoblastome (Rb) est une tumeur provenant des cellules rétiniennes progénitrices des photorécepteurs. C'est la tumeur pédiatrique maligne la plus fréquente avec une incidence par naissance évaluée entre 1/15Ό00 et 1/20Ό00. Les enfants atteints de Rb sont diagnostiqué dans leur grande majorité avant l'âge de 4 ans, soit le temps nécessaire à la différentiation et à la maturation des photorécepteurs et donc à la disparition de la cellule d'origine du Rb. La survie du patient, la sauvegarde oculaire et le pronostic visuel restent excellents pour autant que le traitement ne soit pas différé. Dans sa variante non héréditaire (60%) le Rb est toujours unilatéral et sporadique. Le Rb héréditaire de transmission dominante autosomique (40%), se décline sous toutes les formes, familiale (10%) ou sporadique (30%), que l'atteinte soit unilatérale ou bilatérale. La majorité des mutations causales sont uniques et distribuées de façon aléatoire sur la totalité du gène RB1 sans région prédisposante. La détection de ces mutations est couteuse et chronophage, tout en présentant un taux de détection relativement bas; surtout dans les cas de Rb sporadiques unilatéraux. Dans le but d'identifier les patients présentant un risque réel de développer un Rb, et de réduire le nombre d'examens sous narcose requis pour le dépistage de la maladie chez les sujets à risque, nous avons développé une stratégie sensible, rapide, efficace et peu couteuse basée sur une analyse de l'haplotype intragénique. Cet algorithme prend en compte a) la perte d'hétérozygotie intratumorale du gène RB1, b) l'origine paternelle préférentielle des nouvelles mutations germinales et c) un risque a priori dérivé des données empiriques de Vogel. Pendant la période allant de janvier 1994 à décembre 2006, nous avons comparé l'apparition de nouveau Rb parmi la fratrie et la descendance de patient atteints au nombre de nouveaux cas attendus calculé par notre algorithme. 134 familles ont été étudiées. L'analyse moléculaire a été effectuée chez 570 personnes dont 99 patients âgés de moins de 4 ans et donc à risque de développer un Rb. Parmi cette cohorte, nous avons observé l'apparition d'un cas de Rb, alors que les risques cumulés a posteriori calculé par notre algorithme prédisait l'apparition de 1.77 nouveau cas. Dans cette étude, nous avons pu valider notre algorithme prédisant la récurrence de Rb chez les parents de 1er degré de patients atteints. Cet outil devrait grandement faciliter le conseil génétique ainsi que le suivi des patients à risque de développer un Rb, surtout dans les cas ou le séquençage direct du gène RB1 n'est pas disponible ou est resté non informatif. - Purpose: Most RBI mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RBI gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblas-toma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. Methods: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RBI loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. Results: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. Conclusions: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RBI screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Limits of a rapid identification of common Mediterranean sandflies using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism

A total of 131 phlebotomine Algerian sandflies have been processed in the present study. They belong to the species Phlebotomus bergeroti, Phlebotomus alexandri, Phlebotomus sergenti, Phlebotomus chabaudi, Phlebotomus riouxi, Phlebotomus perniciosus, Phlebotomus longicuspis, Phlebotomus perfiliewi, Phlebotomus ariasi, Phlebotomus chadlii, Sergentomyia fallax, Sergentomyia minuta, Sergentomyia antennata, Sergentomyia schwetzi, Sergentomyia clydei, Sergentomyia christophersi and Grassomyia dreyfussi. They have been characterised by sequencing of a part of the cytochrome b (cyt b), t RNA serine and NADH1 on the one hand and of the cytochrome C oxidase I of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) on the other hand. Our study highlights two sympatric populations within P. sergenti in the area of its type-locality and new haplotypes of P. perniciosus and P. longicuspis without recording the specimens called lcx previously found in North Africa. We tried to use a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method based on a combined double digestion of each marker. These method is not interesting to identify sandflies all over the Mediterranean Basin.

No evidence of association between common autoimmunity STAT4 and IL23R risk polymorphisms and non-anterior uveitis.

OBJECTIVE: STAT4 and IL23R loci represent common susceptibility genetic factors in autoimmunity. We decided to investigate for the first time the possible role of different STAT4/IL23R autoimmune disease-associated polymorphisms on the susceptibility to develop non-anterior uveitis and its main clinical phenotypes. METHODS Four functional polymorphisms (rs3821236, rs7574865, rs7574070, and rs897200) located within STAT4 gene as well as three independent polymorphisms (rs7517847, rs11209026, and rs1495965) located within IL23R were genotyped using TaqMan® allelic discrimination in a total of 206 patients with non-anterior uveitis and 1553 healthy controls from Spain. RESULTS No statistically significant differences were found when allele and genotype distributions were compared between non-anterior uveitis patients and controls for any STAT4 (rs3821236: P=0.39, OR=1.12, CI 95%=0.87-1.43; rs7574865: P=0.59 OR=1.07, CI 95%=0.84-1.37; rs7574070: P=0.26, OR=0.89, CI 95%=0.72-1.10; rs897200: P=0.22, OR=0.88, CI 95%=0.71-1.08;) or IL23R polymorphisms (rs7517847: P=0.49, OR=1.08, CI 95%=0.87-1.33; rs11209026: P=0.26, OR=0.78, CI 95%=0.51-1.21; rs1495965: P=0.51, OR=0.93, CI 95%=0.76-1.15). CONCLUSION Our results do not support a relevant role, similar to that described for other autoimmune diseases, of IL23R and STAT4 polymorphisms in the non-anterior uveitis genetic predisposition. Further studies are needed to discard a possible weak effect of the studied variant.

Sulfur and strontium isotope composition of the Llobregat River (NE Spain): Tracers of natural and anthropogenic chemicals in stream waters

The use of sulfur and strontium isotopes as tracers for the source/s of water contaminants have been applied to the water of the Llobregat River system (NE Spain). Surface water samples from June 1997 were collected from the Llobregat River and its main tributaries and creeks. The chemistry of most stream waters are controlled mainly by the weathering of Tertiary chemical sediments within the drainage basin. The largest variation in delta(34)S values were found in the small creeks with values ranging from -9.9 to 15parts per thousand, whilst in the main river channels values ranged from 6.3 to 12.4parts per thousand. The Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio for dissolved strontium ranged from 0.70795 for a non-polluted site to 0.70882 for a polluted one. Most of the waters with high NO3 and low Ca/Na ratio converge to the same Sr-87/Sr-86 value, pointing to dominant pollutant end member contribution or a mixing of pollutants with an isotopic composition around 0.7083-0.7085. Although the concentration of the natural inputs in the river for sulfate and strontium are high, as a result of the sulfate outcrops within the geology of the basin, their isotopic characteristics suggest that they can be used as a discriminating device in water pollution problems. However to establish the detailed characteristics of the isotopes as geochemical tools, specific high-resolution case studies are necessary in small areas, where the inputs are well known.

A Label space reduction algorithm for P2MP LSPs using asymmetric tunnels

The aim of traffic engineering is to optimise network resource utilization. Although several works on minimizing network resource utilization have been published, few works have focused on LSR label space. This paper proposes an algorithm that uses MPLS label stack features in order to reduce the number of labels used in LSPs forwarding. Some tunnelling methods and their MPLS implementation drawbacks are also discussed. The algorithm described sets up the NHLFE tables in each LSR, creating asymmetric tunnels when possible. Experimental results show that the algorithm achieves a large reduction factor in the label space. The work presented here applies for both types of connections: P2MP and P2P

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

Viral aetiology of common colds of outpatient children at primary care level and the use of antibiotics

Although antibiotics are ineffective against viral respiratory infections, studies have shown high rates of prescriptions worldwide. We conducted a study in Brazil to determine the viral aetiologies of common colds in children and to describe the use of antibiotics for these patients. Children up to 12 years with common colds were enrolled from March 2008-February 2009 at a primary care level facility and followed by regular telephone calls and medical consultations. A nasopharyngeal wash was obtained at enrollment and studied by direct fluorescence assay and polymerase chain reaction for nine different types of virus. A sample of 134 patients was obtained, median age 2.9 years (0.1-11.2 y). Respiratory viruses were detected in 73.9% (99/134) with a coinfection rate of 30.3% (30/99). Rhinovirus was the most frequent virus (53/134; 39.6%), followed by influenza (33/134; 24.6%) and respiratory syncytial virus (8/134; 13.4%). Antibiotic prescription rate was 39.6% (53/134) and 69.8% (37/53) were considered inappropriate. Patients with influenza infection received antibiotics inappropriately in a greater proportion of cases when compared to respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus infections (p = 0.016). The rate of inappropriate use of antibiotics was very high and patients with influenza virus infection were prescribed antibiotics inappropriately in a greater proportion of cases.

Functional MRI Mapping of the Human Auditory Cortex

Mapping the human auditory cortex with standard functional imaging techniques is difficult because of its small size and angular position along the Sylvian fissure. As a result, the exact number and location of auditory cortex areas in the human remains unknown. In a first experiment, we measured the two largest tonotopic areas of primary auditory cortex (PAC, Al and R) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 Tesla relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG). The data reveals a clear anatomical- functional relationship that indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplication and complete duplication). Human PAC tonotopic areas are oriented along an oblique posterior-to-anterior axis with mirror-symmetric frequency gradients perpendicular to HG, as in the macaque. In a second experiment, we tested whether these primary frequency-tuned units were modulated by selective attention to preferred vs. non-preferred sound frequencies in the dynamic manner needed to account for human listening abilities in noisy environments, such as cocktail parties or busy streets. We used a dual-stream selective attention experiment where subjects attended to one of two competing tonal streams presented simultaneously to different ears. Attention to low-frequency tones (250 Hz) enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high (4000 Hz), and vice versa when at-tention switched from high to low. Human PAC is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch frequencies on demand, like a radio. In a third experiment, we investigated repetition suppression effects to environmental sounds within primary and non-primary early-stage auditory areas, identified with the tonotopic mapping design. Repeated presentations of sounds from the same sources, as compared to different sources, gave repetition suppression effects within posterior and medial non-primary areas of the right hemisphere, reflecting their potential involvement in semantic representations. These three studies were conducted at 7 Tesla with high-resolution imaging. However, 7 Tesla scanners are, for the moment, not yet used for clinical diagnosis and mostly reside in institutions external to hospitals. Thus, hospital-based clinical functional and structural studies are mainly performed using lower field systems (1.5 or 3 Tesla). In a fourth experiment, we acquired tonotopic maps at 3 and 7 Tesla and evaluated the consistency of a tonotopic mapping paradigm between scanners. Mirror-symmetric gradients within PAC were highly similar at 7 and 3 Tesla across renderings at different spatial resolutions. We concluded that the tonotopic mapping paradigm is robust and suitable for definition of primary tonotopic areas, also at 3 Tesla. Finally, in a fifth study, we considered whether focal brain lesions alter tonotopic representations in the intact ipsi- and contralesional primary auditory cortex in three patients with hemispheric or cerebellar lesions, without and with auditory complaints. We found evidence for tonotopic reorganisation at the level of the primary auditory cortex in cases of brain lesions independently of auditory complaints. Overall, these results reflect a certain degree of plasticity within primary auditory cortex in different populations of subjects, assessed at different field strengths. - La cartographie du cortex auditif chez l'humain est difficile à réaliser avec des techniques d'imagerie fonctionnelle standard, étant donné sa petite taille et position angulaire le long de la fissure sylvienne. En conséquence, le nombre et l'emplacement exacts des différentes aires du cortex auditif restent inconnus chez l'homme. Lors d'une première expérience, nous avons mesuré, avec de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique à haute intensité (IRMf à 7 Tesla) chez des sujets humains sains, deux larges aires au sein du cortex auditif primaire (PAC; Al et R) avec une représentation spécifique des fréquences pures préférées - ou tonotopie. Nos résultats ont démontré une relation anatomico- fonctionnelle qui définit clairement la position du PAC à travers toutes les variantes du gyrus d'Heschl's (HG). Les aires tonotopiques du PAC humain sont orientées le long d'un axe postéro-antérieur oblique avec des gradients de fréquences spécifiques perpendiculaires à HG, d'une manière similaire à celles mesurées chez le singe. Dans une deuxième expérience, nous avons testé si ces aires primaires pouvaient être modulées, de façon dynamique, par une attention sélective pour des fréquences préférées par rapport à celles non-préférées. Cette modulation est primordiale lors d'interactions sociales chez l'humain en présence de bruits distracteurs tels que d'autres discussions ou un environnement sonore nuisible (comme par exemple, dans la circulation routière). Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé une expérience d'attention sélective où le sujet devait être attentif à une des deux voies sonores présentées simultanément à chaque oreille. Lorsque le sujet portait était attentif aux sons de basses fréquences (250 Hz), la réponse neuronale relative à ces fréquences augmentait par rapport à celle des hautes fréquences (4000 Hz), et vice versa lorsque l'attention passait des hautes aux basses fréquences. De ce fait, nous pouvons dire que PAC est capable de focaliser sur la fréquence attendue et de changer de canal selon la demande, comme une radio. Lors d'une troisième expérience, nous avons étudié les effets de suppression due à la répétition de sons environnementaux dans les aires auditives primaires et non-primaires, d'abord identifiées via le protocole de la première étude. La présentation répétée de sons provenant de la même source sonore, par rapport à de sons de différentes sources sonores, a induit un effet de suppression dans les aires postérieures et médiales auditives non-primaires de l'hémisphère droite, reflétant une implication de ces aires dans la représentation de la catégorie sémantique. Ces trois études ont été réalisées avec de l'imagerie à haute résolution à 7 Tesla. Cependant, les scanners 7 Tesla ne sont pour le moment utilisés que pour de la recherche fondamentale, principalement dans des institutions externes, parfois proches du patient mais pas directement à son chevet. L'imagerie fonctionnelle et structurelle clinique se fait actuellement principalement avec des infrastructures cliniques à 1.5 ou 3 Tesla. Dans le cadre dune quatrième expérience, nous avons avons évalués la cohérence du paradigme de cartographie tonotopique à travers différents scanners (3 et 7 Tesla) chez les mêmes sujets. Nos résultats démontrent des gradients de fréquences définissant PAC très similaires à 3 et 7 Tesla. De ce fait, notre paradigme de définition des aires primaires auditives est robuste et applicable cliniquement. Finalement, nous avons évalués l'impact de lésions focales sur les représentations tonotopiques des aires auditives primaires des hémisphères intactes contralésionales et ipsilésionales chez trois patients avec des lésions hémisphériques ou cérébélleuses avec ou sans plaintes auditives. Nous avons trouvé l'évidence d'une certaine réorganisation des représentations topographiques au niveau de PAC dans le cas de lésions cérébrales indépendamment des plaintes auditives. En conclusion, nos résultats démontrent une certaine plasticité du cortex auditif primaire avec différentes populations de sujets et différents champs magnétiques.

Fast calculation of the CAC convolution algorithm using the multinomial distribution function

The authors focus on one of the methods for connection acceptance control (CAC) in an ATM network: the convolution approach. With the aim of reducing the cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements, they propose the use of the multinomial distribution function. This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements. This in turn makes possible a simple deconvolution process. Moreover, under certain conditions additional improvements may be achieved

The Common Strategy on the Mediterranean Region: Evidence and Analysis

The present working paper aims at assessing the Common Strategy on the Mediterranean, taking into account its possible articulation as a coherent instrument of the European Foreign Policy. The study wants to answer some questions related to this instrument. The Common Strategy on the Mediterranean is an excellent case study and is a potential source of several questions about the external action of the European Union. Specifically, the present study has in mind two main questions to answer. Firstly, which are the main reasons behind the adoption of this instrument of the European Foreign Policy? In other words, which was/is the rationale for the existence of this Common Strategy? Secondly, which is the real impact of the Common Strategy? Which are its real achievements?