920 resultados para Climate Change: Learning from the past climate


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Model intercomparisons have identified important deficits in the representation of the stable boundary layer by turbulence parametrizations used in current weather and climate models. However, detrimental impacts of more realistic schemes on the large-scale flow have hindered progress in this area. Here we implement a total turbulent energy scheme into the climate model ECHAM6. The total turbulent energy scheme considers the effects of Earth’s rotation and static stability on the turbulence length scale. In contrast to the previously used turbulence scheme, the TTE scheme also implicitly represents entrainment flux in a dry convective boundary layer. Reducing the previously exaggerated surface drag in stable boundary layers indeed causes an increase in southern hemispheric zonal winds and large-scale pressure gradients beyond observed values. These biases can be largely removed by increasing the parametrized orographic drag. Reducing the neutral limit turbulent Prandtl number warms and moistens low-latitude boundary layers and acts to reduce longstanding radiation biases in the stratocumulus regions, the Southern Ocean and the equatorial cold tongue that are common to many climate models.

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A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

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Ocean–sea ice reanalyses are crucial for assessing the variability and recent trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. This is especially true for sea ice volume, as long-term and large scale sea ice thickness observations are inexistent. Results from the Ocean ReAnalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP) are presented, with a focus on Arctic sea ice fields reconstructed by state-of-the-art global ocean reanalyses. Differences between the various reanalyses are explored in terms of the effects of data assimilation, model physics and atmospheric forcing on properties of the sea ice cover, including concentration, thickness, velocity and snow. Amongst the 14 reanalyses studied here, 9 assimilate sea ice concentration, and none assimilate sea ice thickness data. The comparison reveals an overall agreement in the reconstructed concentration fields, mainly because of the constraints in surface temperature imposed by direct assimilation of ocean observations, prescribed or assimilated atmospheric forcing and assimilation of sea ice concentration. However, some spread still exists amongst the reanalyses, due to a variety of factors. In particular, a large spread in sea ice thickness is found within the ensemble of reanalyses, partially caused by the biases inherited from their sea ice model components. Biases are also affected by the assimilation of sea ice concentration and the treatment of sea ice thickness in the data assimilation process. An important outcome of this study is that the spatial distribution of ice volume varies widely between products, with no reanalysis standing out as clearly superior as compared to altimetry estimates. The ice thickness from systems without assimilation of sea ice concentration is not worse than that from systems constrained with sea ice observations. An evaluation of the sea ice velocity fields reveals that ice drifts too fast in most systems. As an ensemble, the ORA-IP reanalyses capture trends in Arctic sea ice area and extent relatively well. However, the ensemble can not be used to get a robust estimate of recent trends in the Arctic sea ice volume. Biases in the reanalyses certainly impact the simulated air–sea fluxes in the polar regions, and questions the suitability of current sea ice reanalyses to initialize seasonal forecasts.

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A collection of Latin textbooks used by Greek speakers in the Roman empire, translated and annotated for modern readers. Includes reading material such as dialogues, phrasebooks, Colloquia of the Hermeneumata Pseudodositheana, stories about the Trojan war, Aesop's fables, legal treatises, and model letters; grammatical works from Dositheus and Charisius; glossaries/lexica; prose compostion exercises; alphabets. Some texts are transliterated.

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Dental markers have been used to unravel particularities of paleodiet, subsistence, social structure, and health. This article aims to compare oral pathology among four pre-Columbian groups with different degrees of agricultural and socio-cultural development but comparable ecological conditions who lived on the coastal desert of Peru. Three of these groups are assigned to distinct phases of the Formative Period (2500-1 BC), a time critical for our understanding of the development of agriculture and social complexity. The fourth group corresponds to the Late Intermediate Period (1000-1470 AD), when agriculture had its apogee and society was highly stratified. In this study we test whether there is an increase (1) in the frequency of carious lesions and (2) in caries depth, and (3) if there is a shift from occlusal to extra-occlusal caries locations with the development of agriculture. Therefore, we analyze the frequencies of carious lesions and antemortem tooth loss (AMTL), the caries distributions by age, sex, and type of tooth, as well as the tissues affected by, and the location of the carious lesions. Since there are no significant differences in the frequencies of carious lesions and AMTL between the groups, we reject hypothesis 1. In contrast, caries depth does increase, and caries location changes from occlusal to extra-occlusal sites with agricultural development. However, we can only corroborate hypothesis 2 and 3 when taking into consideration dental wear. Thus, we recommend that caries depth and locations should be used with evaluations of dental wear to reconstruct subsistence in ancient populations. Am J Phys Anthropol 143:75-91, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

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Este estudo apresenta documentos de paralisia facial periférica nas artes plásticas no Egito antigo, Grécia e Roma, Idade Média, Renascimento e também dos últimos 4 séculos. Pensamos que a história da paralisia facial periférica acompanha a história da própria espécie humana. São apresentadas as contribuições de Avicenna e Nicolaus Friedreich, e são mostradas controvérsias sobre a descrição original de Charles Bell.

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The neotropical wasp Polybia paulista is very aggressive and endemic in south-east Brazil, where it frequently causes stinging accidents. By using gel filtration on Sephadex G-200, followed by ion-exchange chromatography on DEAE-Cellulose under a pH gradient, a group of four toxins (designated as polybitoxins-I, II, lII and IV) presenting phospholipase A2 (PLA2) activities was purified. These toxins are dimeric with mol. wts ranging from 115,000 to 132,000 and formed by different subunits. The four toxins contain very high sugar contents attached to their molecules (22-43% w/w) and presented different values of pH optimum from 7.8 to 9.0; when dissociated, only residual catalytic activities were maintained. The catalytic activities of polybitoxins (from 18 to 771 μmoles/mg per minute) are lower than that of PLA2 from Apis mellifera venom and hornetin from Vespa basalis. The polybitoxins presented a non-linear steady-state kinetic behavior for the hydrolysis of phosphatidylcholine at pH 7.9, compatible with the negative co- operativity phenomena. All of the polybitoxins were very potent direct hemolysins, especially the polybitoxins-III and IV, which are as potent as the lethal toxin from V. basalis and hornetin from Vespa flavitarsus, respectively; polybitoxin-IV presented hemolytic action 20 times higher than that of PLA2 from A. mellifera, 17 times higher than that of neutral PLA2 from Naja nigricolis and about 37 times higher than that of cardiotoxin from Naja naja atra venom.

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The new flavonoid glycoside kaempferol-3-O-α-L-rhamnopyranosyl(1→2)-O-[α-L- rhamnopyranosyl(1→6)]-O-β-D-galactopyranoside-7-O-α-L- rhamnopyranoside was isolated together with (S)-zierin from the leaves of Zollernia ilicifolia (Fabaceae), a medicinal plant used as analgesic and antiulcerogenic effects in Brazilian Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest. The structures were established on the basis of 1H, 13C NMR and 2D NMR (COSY, HMBC, HMQC), UV, MS and IV spectra. The infusion of Zollernia ilicifolia was qualitatively compared to the infusion of the espinheiras-santas (Maytenus aquifolium and Maytenus ilicifolia) by HPLC-DAD.

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A Bacia Bauru (Cretáceo Superior), acumulou uma seqüência sedimentar continental essencialmente arenosa. Numa fase inicial desértica, o seu substrato basáltico foi soterrado por extensa e monótona cobertura de areias eólicas com intercalações subordinadas de depósitos de loesse. O relevo original do substrato favoreceu a formação de uma drenagem regional endorrêica, sob clima semi-árido, propiciando assim condições de formação do Paleopantanal Araçatuba. Os depósitos paludiais (Formação Araçatuba) constituem estratos tabulares de siltitos e arenitos de cor cinza claro esverdeado típica, eventualmente cimentados por carbonato de cálcio. Moldes e pseudomorfos de cristais de gipsita e dolomita foram identificados na unidade. Aparentemente, estão associados com gretas de ressecação, marcas de raízes e intervalos com laminação tipo climbing ripple, que indicam ambiente de águas salinas rasas e relativamente calmas, submetidas a fases de exposição subaérea e ressecação. Nos limites da área de ocorrência da Formação Araçatuba, as unidades arenosas podem exibir feições sigmóides e estratificação contorcida, comuns em depósitos deltaicos marginais. A Formação Araçatuba é contornada e posteriormente encoberta por depósitos eólicos da Formação Vale do Rio do Peixe.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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This study uses the global Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Jason-1 altimeters` time series to estimate the 13-yr trend in sea surface height anomaly. These trends are estimated at each grid point by two methods: one fits a straight line to the time series and the other is based on the difference between the average height between the two halves of the time series. In both cases the trend shows large regional variability, mostly where the intense western boundary currents turn. The authors hypothesize that the regional variability of the sea surface height trends leads to changes in the local geostrophic transport. This in turn affects the instability-related processes that generate mesoscale eddies and enhances the Rossby wave signals. This hypothesis is verified by estimates of the trend of the amplitude of the filtered sea surface height anomaly that contains the spectral bands associated with Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies. The authors found predominantly positive tendency in the amplitude of Rossby waves and eddies, which suggests that, on average, these events are becoming more energetic. In some regions, the variation in amplitude over 13 yr is comparable to the standard deviation of the data and is statistically significant according to both methods employed in this study. It is plausible that in this case, the energy is transferred from the mean currents to the waves and eddies through barotropic and baroclinic instability processes that are more pronounced in the western boundary current extension regions. If these heat storage patterns and trends are confirmed on longer time series, then it will be justified to argue that the warming trend of the last century provides the energy that amplifies both Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies.