895 resultados para Climate Change: Learning from the past climate


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Without doubt, global climate change is directly linked to the anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (UN IPCC-Report 2007). Therefore, research efforts to comprehend the global carbon cycle have increased during the last years. In the context of the observed changes, it is of particular interest to decipher the role of the hydro-, bio- and atmospheres and how the different compartments of the earth system are affected by the increase of atmospheric CO2. Due to its huge carbon inventory, the marine carbon cycle represents the most important component in this respect. Numerous findings suggest that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in terms of oceanic CO2 uptake. However, an exact quantification of such fluxes of material is hard to achieve for large areas, not least on account of the inaccessibility of this remote region. In particular, there exist so far only few accurate data for benthic carbon fluxes. The latter can be derived from high resolution pore water oxygen profiles, as one possible method. However the ex situ flux determinations carried out on sediment cores, tend to suffer from temperature and pressure artefacts. Alternatively, oxygen microprofiles can be measured in situ, i.e. at the seafloor. Until now, no such data have been published for the Southern Ocean. During the Antarctic Expedition ANT-XXI/4, within the framework of this thesis, in situ and ex situ oxygen profiles were measured and used to derive benthic organic carbon fluxes. Having both types of measurements from the same locations, it was possible to establish a depth-related correction function which was applied subsequently to revise published and additional unpublished carbon fluxes to the seafloor. This resulted in a consistent data base of benthic carbon inputs covering many important sub-regions of the Southern Ocean including the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (southern Pacific), Scotia and Weddell Seas (southern South Atlantic) as well as the Crozet Basin (southern Indian Ocean). Including additional locations on the Antarctic Shelf, there are now 134 new and revised measurement locations, covering almost 180° of the Southern Ocean, for which benthic organic carbon fluxes and sedimentary oxygen penetration depth values are available. Further, benthic carbon fluxes were empirically related to dominant diatom distributions in surface sediments as well as to long-term remotely sensed chlorophyll-a estimates. The comparison of these results with benthic carbon fluxes of the entire Atlantic Ocean reveals significantly higher export efficiencies for the Southern Ocean than have previously been assumed, especially for the area of the opal belt.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In order to investigate a possible link between tropical Northeast (NE) Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST), Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and drought in the Sahel during the past 44 thousand years (kyr) we used alkenone paleothermometry and d13C of C. wuellerstorfi of a marine sediment core from the continental slope off Senegal. Our data show periods of low SST and reduced AMOC that coincided with drought in the Sahel during North Atlantic Heinrich stadials (HS). The coldest period was HS1 (ca. 15-18 kyr before present, BP) when SST decreased by more than 2°C. Moreover, the SST off Senegal lagged variations in Sahel aridity, which is in agreement with results from a freshwater hosing experiment. We conclude that variations in tropical NE Atlantic SST were not the initial trigger of millennial-scale Sahel droughts of the past 44 kyr. Instead, it is thought that these droughts were induced by substantial coolings of the extratropical North Atlantic.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The high-resolution delta18O and delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from a 150,000-year long core from the Caribbean Sea indicate that there was generally high delta13C during glaciations and low delta13C during interglaciations. Due to its 1800-m sill depth, the properties of deep water in the Caribbean Sea are similar to those of middepth tropical Atlantic water. During interglaciations, the water filling the deep Caribbean Sea is an admixture of low delta13C Upper Circumpolar Water (UCPW) and high delta13C Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW). By contrast, only high delta13C UNADW enters during glaciations. Deep ocean circulation changes can influence atmospheric CO2 levels (Broecker and Takahashi, 1985; Boyle, 1988 doi:10.1029/JC093iC12p15701; Keir, 1988 doi:10.1029/PA003i004p00413; Broecker and Peng, 1989 doi:10.1029/GB003i003p00215). By comparing delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from cores lying in Southern Ocean Water, the Caribbean Sea, and at several other Atlantic Ocean sites, the thermohaline state of the Atlantic Ocean (how close it was to a full glacial or full interglacial configuration) is characterized. A continuum of circulation patterns between the glacial and interglacial extremes appears to have existed in the past. Subtracting the deep Pacific (~mean ocean water) delta13C record from the Caribbean delta13C record yields a record which describes large changes in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. The delta13C difference varies as the vertical nutrient distribution changes. This new proxy record bears a striking resemblance to the 150,000-year-long atmospheric CO2 record (Barnola et al., 1987 doi:10.1038/329408a0). This favorable comparison between the new proxy record and the atmospheric CO2 record is consistent with Boyle's (1988a) model that vertical nutrient redistribution has driven large atmospheric CO2 changes in the past. Changes in the relative contribution of NADW and Pacific outflow water to the Southern Ocean are also consistent with Broecker and Peng's (1989) recent model for atmospheric CO2 changes.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A reconstruction of Holocene sea ice conditions in the Fram Strait provides insight into the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoceanographic development of this climate sensitive area during the past 8,500 years BP. Organic geochemical analyses of sediment cores from eastern and western Fram Strait enable the identification of variations in the ice coverage that can be linked to changes in the oceanic (and atmospheric) circulation system. By means of the sea ice proxy IP25, phytoplankton derived biomarkers and ice rafted detritus (IRD) increasing sea ice occurrences are traced along the western continental margin of Spitsbergen throughout the Holocene, which supports previous palaeoenvironmental reconstructions that document a general cooling. A further significant ice advance during the Neoglacial is accompanied by distinct sea ice fluctuations, which point to short-term perturbations in either the Atlantic Water advection or Arctic Water outflow at this site. At the continental shelf of East Greenland, the general Holocene cooling, however, seems to be less pronounced and sea ice conditions remained rather stable. Here, a major Neoglacial increase in sea ice coverage did not occur before 1,000 years BP. Phytoplankton-IP25 indices ("PIP25-Index") are used for more explicit sea ice estimates and display a Mid Holocene shift from a minor sea ice coverage to stable ice margin conditions in eastern Fram Strait, while the inner East Greenland shelf experienced less severe to marginal sea ice occurrences throughout the entire Holocene.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Projected air and ground temperatures are expected to be higher in Arctic and sub-Arcticlatitudes and with temperatures already close to the limit where permafrost can exist,resistance against degradation is low. With thawing permafrost, the landscape is modifiedwith depression in which thermokarst lakes emerge. In permafrost soils a considerableamount of soil organic carbon is stored, with the potential of altering climate even furtherif expansion and formation of new thermokarst lakes emerge, as decay releasesgreenhouse gases (C02 and CH4) to the atmosphere. Analyzing the spatial distribution andmorphometry over time of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies, is of importance inaccurately predict carbon budget and feedback mechanisms, as well as to assess futurelandscape layout and these features interaction. Different types of high-spatial resolutionaerial and satellite imageries from 1963, 1975, 2003, 2010 and 2015, were used in bothpre- and post-classification change detection analyses. Using object oriented segmentationin eCognition combined with manual adjustments, resulted in digitalized water bodies>28m2 from which direction of change and morphometric values were extracted. Thequantity of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies was in 1963 n=92, with succeedingyears as a trend decreased in numbers, until 2010-2015 when eleven water bodies wereadded in 2015 (n=74 to n=85). In 1963-2003, area of these water bodies decreased with50 651m2 (189 446-138 795m2) and continued to decrease in 2003-2015 ending at 129337m2. Limnicity decreased from 19.9% in 1963 to 14.6% in 2003 (-5.3%). In 2010 and2015 13.7-13.6%. The late increase in water bodies differs from an earlier hypothesis thatsporadic permafrost regions experience decrease in both area and quantity of thermokarstlakes and water bodies. During 1963-2015, land gain has been in dominance of the ratiobetween the two competing processes of expansion and drainage. In 1963-1975, 55/45%,followed by 90/10% in 1975-2003. After major drainage events, land loss increased to62/38% in 2010-2015. Drainage and infilling rates, calculated for 15 shorelines werevaried across both landscape and parts of shorelines, with in average 0.17/0.15/0.14m/yr.Except for 1963-1975 when rate of change in average was in opposite direction (-0.09m/yr.), likely due to evident expansion of a large thermokarst lake. Using a squaregrid, distribution of water bodies was determined, with an indistinct cluster located in NEand central parts. Especially for water bodies <250m2, which is the dominant area classthroughout 1963-2015 ranging from n=39-51. With a heterogeneous composition of bothsmall and large thermokarst lakes, and with both expansion and drainage altering thelandscape in Tavvavuoma, both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms are inplay - given that sporadic permafrost still exist.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Estuaries provide crucial ecosystem functions and contain significant socio-economic value. Within Washington State, estuaries supply rearing habitat for juvenile salmon during their transition period from freshwater to open sea. In order to properly manage wetland resources and restore salmon habitat, the mechanisms through which estuaries evolve and adapt to pressures from climate change, most notably eustatic sea level rise, must be understood. Estuaries maintain elevation relative to sea level rise through vertical accretion of sediment. This report investigates the processes that contribute to local surface elevation change in the Snohomish Estuary, conveys preliminary surface elevation change results from RTK GPS monitoring, and describes how surface elevation change will be monitored with a network of RSET-MH’s. Part of the tidal wetlands within the Snohomish River Estuary were converted for agricultural and industrial purposes in the 1800’s, which resulted in subsidence of organic soils and loss of habitat. The Tulalip Tribes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are conducting a large-scale restoration project to improve ecosystem health and restore juvenile salmon habitat. A study by Crooks et al. (2014) used 210Pb and carbon densities within sediment cores to estimate wetland re-building capacities, sediment accretion rates, and carbon sequestration potential within the Snohomish Estuary. This report uses the aforementioned study in combination with research on crustal movement, tidal patterns, sediment supply, and sea level rise predictions in the Puget Sound to project how surface elevation will change in the Snohomish Estuary with respect to sea level rise. Anthropogenic modification of the floodplain has reduced the quantity of vegetation and functional connectivity within the Snohomish Estuary. There have been losses up to 99% in vegetation coverage from historic extents within the estuary in both freshwater and mesohaline environments. Hydrographic monitoring conducted by NOAA and the Tulalip Tribe shows that 85% of the historic wetland area is not connected to the main stem of the Snohomish (Jason Hall 2014, unpublished data, NOAA). As vegetation colonization and functional connectivity of the floodplains of the Snohomish estuary is re-established through passive and active restoration, sediment transport and accretion is expected to increase. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “medium- probability” scenario sea level is projected to rise at a rate of 4.28 mm/year in the Puget Sound. Sea level rise in the Snohomish Estuary will be exacerbated from crustal deformation from subsidence and post-glacial rebound, which are measured to be -1.4 mm/year and -0.02 mm/year, respectively. Sediment accretion rates calculated by Crooks et al. (2014) and RTK GPS monitoring of surface elevation change of the Marysville Mitigation site from 2011-2014 measured vertical accretion rates that range from -48-19 mm/year and have high spatial variability. Sediment supply is estimated at 490 thousand tons/year, which may be an under-estimate because of the exclusion of tidal transport in this value. The higher rates of sediment accretion measured in the Snohomish Estuary suggest that the Snohomish will likely match or exceed the pace of sea level rise under “medium-probability” projections. The network of RSET-MH instruments will track surface elevation change within the estuary, and provide a more robust dataset on rates of surface elevation change to quantify how vertical accretion and subsidence are contributing to surface elevation change on a landscape scale.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The stable isotope records of four stalagmites dated by 19 TIMS uranium series ages are combined to produce master chronologies for delta(18)O and delta(13)C The delta(18)O records display good overall coherence, but considerable variation in detail. Variability in the delta(13)C records is greater, but general trends can still be discerned. This implies that too fine an interpretation of the structure of individual isotopic records can be unreliable. Speleothem delta(18)O values are demonstrated to show a positive relationship with temperature by comparing trends with other proxy records, but also to respond negatively to rainfall amount. Speleothem delta(13)C is considered to be most influenced by rainfall. The postglacial thermal optimum occur-red around 10.8 ka BP, which is similar in timing to Antarctica but up to 2000 years earlier than most Northern Hemisphere sites. Increasingly negative delta(18)O values after 7.5 ka BP indicate that temperatures declined to a late mid-Holocene minimum centred around 3 ka BP, but more positive values followed to mark a warm peak about 750 years ago which coincided with the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' of Europe. Low 5110 values at 325 years BP suggest cooling coincident with the 'Little Ice Age'. A marked feature of the delta(13)C record is an asymmetric periodicity averaging c. 2250 years and amplitude of c. 1.9parts per thousand. It is concluded that this is mainly driven by waterbalance variations with negative swings representing particularly wet intervals. The 5110 record shows a higher-frequency cyclicity with a period of c. 500 years and an amplitude of c. 0.25 parts per thousand. This is most likely to be temperature-driven, but some swings may have been amplified by precipitation.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The degree to which Southern Hemisphere climatic changes during the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene (30-8 ka) were influenced or initiated by events occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is a complex issue. There is conflicting evidence for the degree of hemispheric 'teleconnection' and an unresolved debate as to the principle forcing mechanism(s). The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because the few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere are widely dispersed and lack duplication. Here we present climatic and environmental reconstructions from across Australia, a key region of the Southern Hemisphere because of the range of environments it covers and the potentially important role regional atmospheric and oceanic controls play in global climate change. We identify a general scheme of events for the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene but a detailed reconstruction proved problematic. Significant progress in climate quantification and geochronological control is now urgently required to robustly investigate change through this period. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Links the concept of market-driven business strategies with the design of production systems. It draws upon the case of a firm which, during the last decade, changed its strategy from being “technology led” to “market driven”. The research, based on interdisciplinary fieldwork involving long-term participant observation, investigated the factors which contribute to the successful design and implementation of flexible production systems in electronics assembly. These investigations were conducted in collaboration with a major computer manufacturer, with other electronics firms being studied for comparison. The research identified a number of strategies and actions seen as crucial to the development of efficient flexible production systems, namely: effective integration of subsystems, development of appropriate controls and performance measures, compatibility between production system design and organization structure, and the development of a climate conducive to organizational change. Overall, the analysis suggests that in the electronics industry there exists an extremely high degree of environmental complexity and turbulence. This serves to shape the strategic, technical and social structures that are developed to match this complexity, examples of which are niche marketing, flexible manufacturing and employee harmonization.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The ALBA 2002 Call for Papers asks the question ‘How do organizational learning and knowledge management contribute to organizational innovation and change?’. Intuitively, we would argue, the answer should be relatively straightforward as links between learning and change, and knowledge management and innovation, have long been commonly assumed to exist. On the basis of this assumption, theories of learning tend to focus ‘within organizations’, and assume a transfer of learning from individual to organization which in turn leads to change. However, empirically, we find these links are more difficult to articulate. Organizations exist in complex embedded economic, political, social and institutional systems, hence organizational change (or innovation) may be influenced by learning in this wider context. Based on our research in this wider interorganizational setting, we first make the case for the notion of network learning that we then explore to develop our appreciation of change in interorganizational networks, and how it may be facilitated. The paper begins with a brief review of lite rature on learning in the organizational and interorganizational context which locates our stance on organizational learning versus the learning organization, and social, distributed versus technical, centred views of organizational learning and knowledge. Developing from the view that organizational learning is “a normal, if problematic, process in every organization” (Easterby-Smith, 1997: 1109), we introduce the notion of network learning: learning by a group of organizations as a group. We argue this is also a normal, if problematic, process in organizational relationships (as distinct from interorganizational learning), which has particular implications for network change. Part two of the paper develops our analysis, drawing on empirical data from two studies of learning. The first study addresses the issue of learning to collaborate between industrial customers and suppliers, leading to the case for network learning. The second, larger scale study goes on to develop this theme, examining learning around several major change issues in a healthcare service provider network. The learning processes and outcomes around the introduction of a particularly controversial and expensive technology are described, providing a rich and contrasting case with the first study. In part three, we then discuss the implications of this work for change, and for facilitating change. Conclusions from the first study identify potential interventions designed to facilitate individual and organizational learning within the customer organization to develop individual and organizational ‘capacity to collaborate’. Translated to the network example, we observe that network change entails learning at all levels – network, organization, group and individual. However, presenting findings in terms of interventions is less meaningful in an interorganizational network setting given: the differences in authority structures; the less formalised nature of the network setting; and the importance of evaluating performance at the network rather than organizational level. Academics challenge both the idea of managing change and of managing networks. Nevertheless practitioners are faced with the issue of understanding and in fluencing change in the network setting. Thus we conclude that a network learning perspective is an important development in our understanding of organizational learning, capability and change, locating this in the wider context in which organizations are embedded. This in turn helps to develop our appreciation of facilitating change in interorganizational networks, both in terms of change issues (such as introducing a new technology), and change orientation and capability.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The problem on which this study focused was individuals' reduced capacity to respond to change and to engage in innovative learning when their reflective learning skills are limited. In this study, the preceding problem was addressed by two primary questions: To what degree can mastery of a strategy for reflective learning be facilitated as a part of an academic curriculum for professional practitioners? What impact will mastery of this strategy have on the learning style and adaptive flexibility of adult learners? The focus of the study was a direct application of human resource development technology in the professional preparation of teachers. The background of the problem in light of changing global paradigms and educational action orientations was outlined and a review of the literature was provided. Roots of thought for two key concepts (i.e., learning to learn from experience and meaningful reflection in learning) were traced. Reflective perspectives from the work of eight researchers were compared. A meta-model of learning from experience drawn from the literature served as a conceptual framework for the study. A strategy for reflective learning developed from this meta-model was taught to 109 teachers-in-training at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. Kolb's Adaptive Style Inventory and Learning Style Inventory were administered to the treatment group and to two control groups taught by the same professor. Three research questions and fourteen hypotheses guided data analysis. Qualitative review of 1565 personal documents generated by the treatment group indicated that 77 students demonstrated "double-loop" learning, going beyond previously established limits to perception, understanding, or action. The mean score for depth of reflection indicated "single-loop" learning with "reflection-in-action" present. The change in the mean score for depth of reflection from the beginning to end of the study was statistically significant (p $<$.05). On quantitative measures of adaptive flexibility and learning style, with two exceptions, there were no significant differences noted between treatment and control groups on pre-test to post-test differences and on post-test mean scores adjusted for pre-test responses and demographic variables. Conclusions were drawn regarding treatment, instrumentation, and application of the strategy and the meta-model. Implications of the strategy and the meta-model for research, for education, for human resource development, for professional practice, and for personal growth were suggested. Qualitative training materials and Kolb's instruments were provided in the appendices.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The accumulation and preservation of peat soils in Everglades freshwater marshes and mangrove swamps is an essential process in the ecological functioning of these ecosystems. Human intervention and climate change have modified nutrient dynamics and hydroperiod in the Everglades and peat loss due to such anthropogenic activities is evident. However, not much is known on the molecular level regarding the biogeochemical characteristics, which allow peat to be preserved in the Everglades. Lipid biomarkers trapped within or bound to humic-type structures can provide important geochemical information regarding the origin and microbial transformation of OM in peat. Four lipid fractions obtained from a Cladium peat, namely the freely extractable fraction and those associated with humin, humic acid, and fulvic acid fractions, showed clear differences in their molecular distribution suggesting different OM sources and structural and diagenetic states of the source material. Both, higher plant derived and microbial lipids were found in association with these humic-type substances. Most biomarker distributions suggest an increment in the microbial/terrestrial lipid ratio from the free to humin to humic to fulvic fractions. Microbial reworking of lipids, and the incorporation of microbial biomarkers into the humic-type fractions was evident, as well as the preservation of diagenetic byproducts. The lipid distribution associated with the fulvic acids suggests a high degree of microbial reworking for this fraction. Evidence for this 3D structure was obtained through the presence of the relatively high abundance of α,ω-dicarboxylic acids and phenolic and benzenecarboxylic compounds. The increment in structural complexity of the phenolic and benzencarboxylic compounds in combination with the reduction in the carbon chain length of the dicarboxylic acids from the free to fulvic fraction suggests the latter to be structurally the most stable, compacted and diagenetically altered substrate. This analytical approach can now be applied to peat samples from other areas within the Everglades ecosystem, affected differently by human intervention with the aim to assess changes in organic matter preservation.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

High-resolution records of the natural radionuclide 230Th were measured in sediments from the eastern Atlantic sector of the Antarctic circumpolar current to obtain a detailed reconstruction of the sedimentation history of this key area for global climate change during the late Quaternary. High-resolution dating rests on the assumption that the 230Thex flux to the sediments is constant. Short periods of drastically increased sediment accumulation rates (up to a factor of 8) were determined in the sediments of the Antarctic zone during the climate optima at the beginning of the Holocene and the isotope stage 5e. By comparing expected and measured accumulation rate of 230Thex, lateral sediment redistribution was quantified and vertical particle rain rates originating from the surface water above were calculated. We show that lateral contributions locally were up to 6.5 times higher than the vertical particle rain rates. At other locations only 15% of the expected vertical particle rain rate were deposited.