A Combinatorial Approach to the Variable Selection in Multiple Linear Regression: Analysis of Selwood et al Data set -A Case Study.

A combinatorial protocol (CP) is introduced here to interface it with the multiple linear regression (MLR) for variable selection. The efficiency of CP-MLR is primarily based on the restriction of entry of correlated variables to the model development stage. It has been used for the analysis of Selwood et al data set [16], and the obtained models are compared with those reported from GFA [8] and MUSEUM [9] approaches. For this data set CP-MLR could identify three highly independent models (27, 28 and 31) with Q2 value in the range of 0.632-0.518. Also, these models are divergent and unique. Even though, the present study does not share any models with GFA [8], and MUSEUM [9] results, there are several descriptors common to all these studies, including the present one. Also a simulation is carried out on the same data set to explain the model formation in CP-MLR. The results demonstrate that the proposed method should be able to offer solutions to data sets with 50 to 60 descriptors in reasonable time frame. By carefully selecting the inter-parameter correlation cutoff values in CP-MLR one can identify divergent models and handle data sets larger than the present one without involving excessive computer time.

A comparison of pixel and object-based land cover classification. A case study of the Asmara region, Eritrea

In this paper we compare the performance of two image classification paradigms (object- and pixel-based) for creating a land cover map of Asmara, the capital of Eritrea and its surrounding areas using a Landsat ETM+ imagery acquired in January 2000. The image classification methods used were maximum likelihood for the pixel-based approach and Bhattacharyya distance for the object-oriented approach available in, respectively, ArcGIS and SPRING software packages. Advantages and limitations of both approaches are presented and discussed. Classifications outputs were assessed using overall accuracy and Kappa indices. Pixel- and object-based classification methods result in an overall accuracy of 78% and 85%, respectively. The Kappa coefficient for pixel- and object-based approaches was 0.74 and 0.82, respectively. Although pixel-based approach is the most commonly used method, assessment and visual interpretation of the results clearly reveal that the object-oriented approach has advantages for this specific case-study.

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Gingival fluid cytokine expression and subgingival bacterial counts during pregnancy and postpartum: a case series

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to assess gingival fluid (GCF) cytokine messenger RNA (mRNA) levels, subgingival bacteria, and clinical periodontal conditions during a normal pregnancy to postpartum. MATERIALS AND METHODS Subgingival bacterial samples were analyzed with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. GCF samples were assessed with real-time PCR including five proinflammatory cytokines and secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor. RESULTS Nineteen pregnant women with a mean age of 32 years (S.D. ± 4 years, range 26-42) participated in the study. Full-mouth bleeding scores (BOP) decreased from an average of 41.2% (S.D. ± 18.6%) at the 12th week of pregnancy to 26.6% (S.D. ± 14.4%) at the 4-6 weeks postpartum (p < 0.001). Between week 12 and 4-6 weeks postpartum, the mean probing pocket depth changed from 2.4 mm (S.D. ± 0.4) to 2.3 mm (S.D. ± 0.3) (p = 0.34). Higher counts of Eubacterium saburreum, Parvimonas micra, Selenomonas noxia, and Staphylococcus aureus were found at week 12 of pregnancy than at the 4-6 weeks postpartum examinations (p < 0.001). During and after pregnancy, statistically significant correlations between BOP scores and bacterial counts were observed. BOP scores and GCF levels of selected cytokines were not related to each other and no differences in GCF levels of the cytokines were observed between samples from the 12th week of pregnancy to 4-6 weeks postpartum. Decreasing postpartum counts of Porphyromonas endodontalis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were associated with decreasing levels of Il-8 and Il-1β. CONCLUSIONS BOP decreased after pregnancy without any active periodontal therapy. Associations between bacterial counts and cytokine levels varied greatly in pregnant women with gingivitis and a normal pregnancy outcome. Postpartum associations between GCF cytokines and bacterial counts were more consistent. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Combined assessments of gingival fluid cytokines and subgingival bacteria may provide important information on host response.

A case of distinct difference between the measured blood Ethanol concentration and the concentration estimated by Widmark's equation

In the last century, several mathematical models have been developed to calculate blood ethanol concentrations (BAC) from the amount of ingested ethanol and vice versa. The most common one in the field of forensic sciences is Widmark's equation. A drinking experiment with 10 voluntary test persons was performed with a target BAC of 1.2 g/kg estimated using Widmark's equation as well as Watson's factor. The ethanol concentrations in the blood were measured using headspace gas chromatography/flame ionization and additionally with an alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH)-based method. In a healthy 75-year-old man a distinct discrepancy between the intended and the determined blood ethanol concentration was observed. A blood ethanol concentration of 1.83 g/kg was measured and the man showed signs of intoxication. A possible explanation for the discrepancy is a reduction of the total body water content in older people. The incident showed that caution is advised when using the different mathematical models in aged people. When estimating ethanol concentrations, caution is recommended with calculated results due to potential discrepancies between mathematical models and biological systems

Controlled Software Evaluation Methodology: Case Simulation and Cognitive User Analysis

Software for use with patient records is challenging to design and difficult to evaluate because of the tremendous variability of patient circumstances. A method was devised by the authors to overcome a number of difficulties. The method evaluates and compares objectively various software products for use in emergency departments and compares software to conventional methods like dictation and templated chart forms. The technique utilizes oral case simulation and video recording for analysis. The methodology and experiences of executing a study using this case simulation are discussed in this presentation.

Towards a Hybrid Method to Categorize Interruptions and Activities in Healthcare

Objective Interruptions are known to have a negative impact on activity performance. Understanding how an interruption contributes to human error is limited because there is not a standard method for analyzing and classifying interruptions. Qualitative data are typically analyzed by either a deductive or an inductive method. Both methods have limitations. In this paper a hybrid method was developed that integrates deductive and inductive methods for the categorization of activities and interruptions recorded during an ethnographic study of physicians and registered nurses in a Level One Trauma Center. Understanding the effects of interruptions is important for designing and evaluating informatics tools in particular and for improving healthcare quality and patient safety in general. Method The hybrid method was developed using a deductive a priori classification framework with the provision of adding new categories discovered inductively in the data. The inductive process utilized line-by-line coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. Results The categories of activities and interruptions were organized into a three-tiered hierarchy of activity. Validity and reliability of the categories were tested by categorizing a medical error case external to the study. No new categories of interruptions were identified during analysis of the medical error case. Conclusions Findings from this study provide evidence that the hybrid model of categorization is more complete than either a deductive or an inductive method alone. The hybrid method developed in this study provides the methodical support for understanding, analyzing, and managing interruptions and workflow.

Towards a hybrid method to categorize interruptions and activities in healthcare.

OBJECTIVE: Interruptions are known to have a negative impact on activity performance. Understanding how an interruption contributes to human error is limited because there is not a standard method for analyzing and classifying interruptions. Qualitative data are typically analyzed by either a deductive or an inductive method. Both methods have limitations. In this paper, a hybrid method was developed that integrates deductive and inductive methods for the categorization of activities and interruptions recorded during an ethnographic study of physicians and registered nurses in a Level One Trauma Center. Understanding the effects of interruptions is important for designing and evaluating informatics tools in particular as well as improving healthcare quality and patient safety in general. METHOD: The hybrid method was developed using a deductive a priori classification framework with the provision of adding new categories discovered inductively in the data. The inductive process utilized line-by-line coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. RESULTS: The categories of activities and interruptions were organized into a three-tiered hierarchy of activity. Validity and reliability of the categories were tested by categorizing a medical error case external to the study. No new categories of interruptions were identified during analysis of the medical error case. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study provide evidence that the hybrid model of categorization is more complete than either a deductive or an inductive method alone. The hybrid method developed in this study provides the methodical support for understanding, analyzing, and managing interruptions and workflow.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Vascular turbine powering a cardiac pacemaker: an in-vivo case study

Background: Today’s medical devices are powered by batteries with a limited energy storage capacity. Depleted batteries have to be replaced, exposing the patients to the risk of adverse events. Thus, a method for harvesting energy inside the body is desirable since it would allow building devices without batteries. Methods: A miniaturized intravascular Tesla turbine was implanted as an arteriovenous shunt between the common carotid artery and external jugular vein of a pig. The harvested energy was used to power a custom-built temporary cardiac pacemaker. Results: At a flow rate of ~150 ml/min, an output power of 0.4 mW was measured. Successful ventricular pacing was performed. Conclusion: Harvesting energy from the circulation using an intravascular turbine is technically feasible and provides enough energy to power a cardiac pacemaker.

International variation in GP treatment strategies for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults: a case-based survey

Background: There is limited evidence about the impact of treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism, especially among older people. Aim: To investigate the variation in GP treatment strategies for older patients with subclinical hypothyroidism depending on country and patient characteristics. Design and setting: Case-based survey of GPs in the Netherlands, Germany, England, Ireland, Switzerland, and New Zealand. Method: The treatment strategy of GPs (treatment yes/no, starting-dose thyroxine) was assessed for eight cases presenting a woman with subclinical hypothyroidism. The cases differed in the patient characteristics of age (70 versus 85 years), vitality status (vital versus vulnerable), and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration (6 versus 15 mU/L). Results: A total of 526 GPs participated (the Netherlands n = 129, Germany n = 61, England n = 22, Ireland n = 21, Switzerland n = 262, New Zealand n = 31; overall response 19%). Across countries, differences in treatment strategy were observed. GPs from the Netherlands (mean treatment percentage 34%), England (40%), and New Zealand (39%) were less inclined to start treatment than GPs in Germany (73%), Ireland (62%), and Switzerland (52%) (P = 0.05). Overall, GPs were less inclined to start treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old females (pooled odds ratio [OR] 0.74 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63 to 0.87]). Females with a TSH of 15 mU/L were more likely to get treated than those with a TSH of 6 mU/L (pooled OR 9.49 [95% CI = 5.81 to 15.5]). Conclusion: GP treatment strategies of older people with subclinical hypothyroidism vary largely by country and patient characteristics. This variation underlines the need for a new generation of international guidelines based on the outcomes of randomised clinical trials set within primary care

Gender-Fair language and professional self-reference: The case of female psychologists in Polish

The struggle to achieve gender equality is accompanied by efforts to introduce gender-fair language. In languages with grammatical gender this implies the use of gender-appropriate forms (feminine for women and masculine for males). In the present research, results of a mixed method approach—a corpus analysis, a survey, and an experiment—provide consistent evidence that in Polish, feminine forms are still infrequent in women’s self-reference and that women psychologists continue to use masculine titles. Moreover, a qualitative inquiry examines the reasons why women prefer masculine over feminine job titles. Integrating findings from the two-stage design, we are able to identify the obstacles to promoting social change with the help of language and to understand the reasons behind them.

Assessing distractors and teamwork during surgery: developing an event-based method for direct observation

OBJECTIVE: To develop a behavioural observation method to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork during surgical procedures through direct, on-site observations; to establish the reliability of the method for long (>3 h) procedures. METHODS: Observational categories for an event-based coding system were developed based on expert interviews, observations and a literature review. Using Cohen's κ and the intraclass correlation coefficient, interobserver agreement was assessed for 29 procedures. Agreement was calculated for the entire surgery, and for the 1st hour. In addition, interobserver agreement was assessed between two tired observers and between a tired and a non-tired observer after 3 h of surgery. RESULTS: The observational system has five codes for distractors (door openings, noise distractors, technical distractors, side conversations and interruptions), eight codes for communication/teamwork (case-relevant communication, teaching, leadership, problem solving, case-irrelevant communication, laughter, tension and communication with external visitors) and five contextual codes (incision, last stitch, personnel changes in the sterile team, location changes around the table and incidents). Based on 5-min intervals, Cohen's κ was good to excellent for distractors (0.74-0.98) and for communication/teamwork (0.70-1). Based on frequency counts, intraclass correlation coefficient was excellent for distractors (0.86-0.99) and good to excellent for communication/teamwork (0.45-0.99). After 3 h of surgery, Cohen's κ was 0.78-0.93 for distractors, and 0.79-1 for communication/teamwork. DISCUSSION: The observational method developed allows a single observer to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork. Even for long procedures, high interobserver agreement can be achieved. Data collected with this method allow for investigating separate or combined effects of distractions and communication/teamwork on surgical performance and patient outcomes.

Motive-Oriented Psychotherapeutic Relationship Facing a Patient Presenting with Narcissistic Personality Disorder: A Case Study

Motive-oriented therapeutic relationship (MOTHER), a prescriptive concept based on an integrative form of case formulation, the Plan Analysis (PA) method (Caspar, in: Eells (ed.), Handbook of psychotherapy case formulations, 2007), has shown to be of particular relevance for the treatment of patients presenting with personality disorders, in particular contributing to better therapeutic outcome and to a more constructive development of the therapeutic alliance over time (Kramer et al., J Nerv Ment Dis 199:244–250, 2011). Several therapy models refer to MOTHER as intervention principle with regard to borderline and Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) (Sachse et al., Clarification-oriented psychotherapy of narcissistic personality disorder, 2011; Caspar and Berger, in: Dulz et al. (eds.), Handbuch der Borderline-Störungen, 2011). The present case study discusses the case of Mark, a 40-year-old patient presenting with NPD, along with anxious, depressive and anger problems. This patient underwent a seven-session long pre-therapy process, based on psychiatric and psychotherapeutic principles complemented with PA and MOTHER, in preparation for further treatment. MOTHER will be illustrated with patient–therapist verbatim from session 4 and the links between MOTHER and confrontation techniques will be discussed in the context of process-outcome hypotheses, in particular the effect of MOTHER on symptom reduction.

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.