Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine individual level property returns to see whether there is evidence of persistence in performance, i.e. a greater than expected probability of well (badly) performing properties continuing to perform well (badly) in subsequent periods. Design/methodology/approach – The same methodology originally used in Young and Graff is applied, making the results directly comparable with those for the US and Australian markets. However, it uses a much larger database covering all UK commercial property data available in the Investment Property Databank (IPD) for the years 1981 to 2002 – as many as 216,758 individual property returns. Findings – While the results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar. Research limitations/implications – The findings suggest that performance persistence is not a feature unique to particular markets, but instead may characterize most advanced real estate investment markets. Originality/value – As well as extending previous research geographically, the paper explores possible reasons for such persistence, consideration of which leads to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of institutional-grade commercial real estate investment management may themselves be deeply rooted and persistent, and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effects. - See more at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1602884&show=abstract#sthash.hc2pCmC6.dpuf

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots when Residuals Contain Serial Correlations under HEGY Test Framework

This paper introduces a corrected test statistic for testing seasonal unit roots when residuals contain serial correlations, based on the HEGY test proposed by Hylleberg,Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). The serial correlations in the residuals of test regressionare accommodated by making corrections to the commonly used HEGY t statistics. Theasymptotic distributions of the corrected t statistics are free from nuisance parameters.The size and power properties of the corrected statistics for quarterly and montly data are investigated. Based on our simulations, the corrected statistics for monthly data havemore power compared with the commonly used HEGY test statistics, but they also have size distortions when there are strong negative seasonal correlations in the residuals.

Alinhamento dos projetos de tecnologia da informação (TI) aos modelos de negócio

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Mestrado em Administração da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul - USCS

Alinhamento dos projetos de tecnologia da informação (ti) aos modelos de negócio

TEIXEIRA, Luciane Diana. Alinhamento dos projetos de tecnologia da informação (ti) aos modelos de negócio. 2012. 161f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração) - Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul, São Caetano do Sul, 2012.

Condomínio comum e condomínio edilício: diferenças quanto ao rateio pela fração ideal e pela forma igualitária

Trata-se de uma pesquisa sobre a origem do Condomínio Comum e suas espécies, evoluindo para o estudo sobre Condomínio Edilício. O surgimento do Condomínio Edilício no Brasil, a evolução da propriedade, os direitos e deveres dos condôminos e a forma de cobrança das despesas condominiais com ênfase nas cobranças por fração ideal e pela forma igualitária com a demonstração de tabelas comparativas entre as duas formas de fixação da taxa condominial. Fez-se o estudo de ações movidas por proprietários de unidades em condomínios, pesquisas em doutrinas e literaturas na área do Direito Civil, consulta a sites especializados em questões administrativas sobre condomínios, pesquisas em boletins e periódicos da área de administração de condomínios. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é demonstrar a forma de cobrança da taxa condominial em alguns modelos de condomínios, em que alguns condôminos pagam a mais para usufruir dos mesmos serviços que os demais e a busca de seus direitos.

Condomínio comum e condomínio edilício:diferenças quanto ao rateio pela fração ideal e pela forma igualitária

Trata-se de uma pesquisa sobre a origem do Condomínio Comum e suas espécies, evoluindo para o estudo sobre Condomínio Edilício. O surgimento do Condomínio Edilício no Brasil, a evolução da propriedade, os direitos e deveres dos condôminos e a forma de cobrança das despesas condominiais com ênfase nas cobranças por fração ideal e pela forma igualitária com a demonstração de tabelas comparativas entre as duas formas de fixação da taxa condominial. Fez-se o estudo de ações movidas por proprietários de unidades em condomínios, pesquisas em doutrinas e literaturas na área do Direito Civil, consulta a sites especializados em questões administrativas sobre condomínios, pesquisas em boletins e periódicos da área de administração de condomínios. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é demonstrar a forma de cobrança da taxa condominial em alguns modelos de condomínios, em que alguns condôminos pagam a mais para usufruir dos mesmos serviços que os demais e a busca de seus direitos.

Presença social e empreendedorismo: aspectos inovadores no uso de mídias sociais por empreendimentos nascentes

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Comunicação da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Comunicação