Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Keynes e o conceito de capital: reflexões epistemológicas a respeito das premissas sraffianas da teoria geral

Keynes and the concept of capital: some epistemological observations in regard to the Sraffian premises of the General Theory. This article aims to examine the conception of the nature of capital used by Keynes in the General Theory, to show to what extent this concept is similar to Sraffa's conception, and to highlight the implications related to this concept, in terms of structural instability. So I will study the mechanisms that explain the investment decision in an environment with strong uncertainty, the modalities of aggregation of different generations of capital and the instability of equilibrium. The convergence between the keynesian and the Sraffian approaches comes from this common conception of capital. Finally, i will examine the implications in regard to the structure of the aggregate models.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.

Dr Brasilia and Mr. Nacala: the apparent duality behind the Brazilian state-capital nexus

In August 2010 Brazil decided to limit foreign direct investments (FDIs) in land, and attracted the attention of politicians as much as the fears of businessmen. However, few months before, in September 2009, it had concluded a trilateral agreement with Japan and Mozambique to implement agribusiness and contract farming on an area of ten million hectares in the Mozambican region of Nacala. In light of that, the paper analyses the apparent duality of the Brazilian politics, and concludes that, exactly like in the case of the novel by Robert Louis Stevenson, it is not a matter of pathology, but a voluntarily induced double personality which is strategic in positioning Brazil at the core of the global capitalist system.

O capital portador de juros em O Capital ou o sistema de Marx

O presente artigo busca estabelecer o local e a função do capital portador de juros em O Capital, visando com isso jogar luz sobre a estrutura eminentemente sistemática desta obra. Deste modo a obra máxima de Marx aparecerá muito próxima do idealismo alemão (particularmente de Fichte e Hegel), onde a questão da sistematicidade (da filosofia) foi sentida de maneira mais premente.

Päättäväiset porvarskat. Turun johtavan porvariston naisten toimijuus vuosina 1623–1670

Turun 1600-luvun johtavan porvariston naiset toimivat aktiivisesti ja päättäväisesti omiin ja perheensä etuihin liittyvissä asioissa. He jatkoivat jo keskiajalla alkanutta traditiota, jossa myös porvarisvaimojen taloudellisen toiminnan merkitys korostui. He eivät kuitenkaan olleet perheestään, suvustaan tai Turun paikallisyhteisöstä erillään olevia yksilöitä, vaan tärkeä osa niitä. Siksi heidän toimijuuttaan ei voi eikä tule erottaa aikakautensa ja yhteisönsä kontekstista. Johtavan porvariston naiset ajoivat asioitaan Turun kaupungin oikeusasteissa kaikissa kolmessa siviilisäädyssä, naimattomina tyttärinä, aviovaimoina ja leskinä, aktiivisimmat heistä elämänsä aikana yli sata kertaa. Verrattuna muihin saman ajanjakson kaupunkeihin naimattomaksi jääneet turkulaiset porvaristyttäret esiintyivät korostuneen aktiivisesti valvomassa taloudellisia etujaan. Heidän toimintansa hyväksyttiin silloin, kun se ei ylittänyt porvariyhteisön sovinnaisuuden rajoja, joita he pyrkivät koettelemaan parantaakseen talouttaan. Leskinaisten oikeustoimikelpoisuus kertoo siitä, että naisia ei pidetty vaimoinakaan lähtökohtaisesti kyvyttöminä hoitamaan perheen asioita, vaan ainoastaan velvollisina alistumaan miehensä edusmiehisyyteen ja määräysvaltaan tämän eläessä. Talouden pää oli yleensä mies ja hänen velvollisuutenaan oli ajaa perheensä asioita. Siksi aviovaimot esiintyvät oikeudessa siviilisäädyistä harvimmin. Leskillä oli puolestaan oikeus hoitaa itse omaisuuttaan. Tämä tarkoitti myös velvollisuutta valvoa lasten perintöä. Turun johtava porvaristo koostui joistakin kymmenistä perheistä, joista suurin osa oli 1600-loppupuolelle tultaessa muodostanut avioliittojen kautta laajan sukulaisverkoston. Tätä verkostoa ei olisi voinut syntyä ilman porvarisnaisia, joiden avioliitot mahdollistivat omaisuuden siirtämisen uusille yrittäjille. Vaikka sukulaisuussuhteet olivat tärkeitä kaupankäynnissä, kokivat naiset ne myös uhkaksi itselleen. Sukulaismiehet pyrkivät usein saamaan naisten omaisuutta käyttöönsä vetoamalla näiden heikkoon kykyyn hallita omaisuutta. Porvarisnaiset kuitenkin puolustautuivat tällaisissa tilanteissa voimakkaasti ja hakivat turvaa porvariyhteisöä edustaneelta raadilta. He osasivat vedota asemaansa yhteisön jäseninä ja saivat yleensä raadin ja porvariyhteisön tuen. Aviomiehen kuoltua porvarisnaisen oli päätettävä, jatkoiko hän miehensä liiketoimintaa vai hankkiko hän elantonsa jollain muulla tavalla. Monet lesket järjestelivät taloudellisia asioitaan heti miehensä kuoltua ja jäivät sitten elämään esimerkiksi kaupunkitalonsa, maatilojensa ja pääomansa turvin. Osa naisista jatkoi yrittäjyyttä pienimuotoisesti esimerkiksi lainaamalla rahaa korkoa vastaan tai panemalla olutta. Muutamat johtavan porvariston naiset jatkoivat kuitenkin laajaa taloudellista toimintaa vuosikausia. Heidän menestyksensä osoittaa, että he olivat saaneet jo kotonaan perusteellisen koulutuksen porvarisammattiin. He olivat myös toimineet miehensä kumppaneina yrityksen toiminnassa, joten heillä oli hyvät edellytykset itsenäiseen asioiden hoitamiseen. Saamansa koulutuksen turvin porvarisnaiset siirsivät osaamisensa myös lapsilleen.

Intellectual capital, knowledge management practices and firm performance

Researchers have widely recognised and accepted that firm performance is increasingly related to knowledge-based issues. Two separately developed literature streams, intellectual capital (IC) and knowledge management (KM), have been established as the key discussions related to knowledge-based competitive advantage of the firm. Intellectual capital has provided evidence on the strategic key intangible resources of the firm, which could be deployed to create competitive advantage. Knowledge management, in turn, has focused on the managerial processes and practices which can be used to leverage IC to create competitive advantage. Despite extensive literature on both issues, some notable research gaps remain to be closed. In effect, one major gap within the knowledge management research is the lack of understanding related to its influence on firm performance, while IC researchers have articulated a need to utilise more finegrained conceptual models to better understand the key strategic value-creating resources of the firm. In this dissertation, IC is regarded as the entire intellectual capacity, knowledge and competences of the firm that can be leveraged to achieve sustained competitive advantage. KM practices are defined as organisational and managerial activities that enable the firm to leverage its IC to create value. The objective of this dissertation is to answer the research question: “What is the relationship between intellectual capital, knowledge management practices and firm performance?” Five publications have addressed the research question using different approaches. The first two publications were systematic literature reviews of the extant empirical IC and KM research, which established the current state of understanding regarding the relationship between IC, KM practices and firm performance. Publications III and IV were empirical research articles that assessed the developed conceptual model related to IC, KM practices and firm performance. Finally, Publication V was among the first research papers to merge IC and KM disciplines in order to find out which configurations could yield organisational benefits in terms of innovation and market performance outcomes.

Understanding round-tripping phenomenon in Russian context – case Cyprus

Russian FDI has a few peculiarities. One of them is round-tripping. Round-tripping is defined as transfer of funds abroad, usually to offshore financial centers (OFCs), and then bringing all or some of the investment back as foreign investment. Russian context was chosen for this study because the share of round-tripping investments from country’s total FDI is extensive. However, it needs to be addressed that this is not just a Russian phenomenon. Round-tripping is used by many developed and developing countries, and most of the countries have their own designated destinations for this kind of capital, much like Cyprus is the main destination for Russian capital. It is important to study this phenomenon further, since it falsifies FDI statistics and can lead to poor decisions on state level. Theoretical part of the study tries to determine weather traditional FDI and internationalization theories fit to explain the Russian round-tripping phenomenon. Traditional FDI and internationalization theories are first introduced in general terms, and then further examined in Russian context. In traditional endogenic FDI theories, when the capital is formed in one country it goes abroad to find better profits. At a first glance, this seemed not to be the case in round-tripping. However, during the study it became rather clear that with few adjustments and changes in perspective, traditional theories could be used to explain round-tripping phenomenon. For example, OLI paradigm can be further developed into OLIH paradigm with ‘H’ representing the important home country institutions. Transaction based view and resource seeking theories were also seen well equipped to explain round-tripping with a change in perspective. The latter part of the study focused on holistic understanding of Russian –Cyprian investment relationship. Study aims to shed light into the determinants and consequences of this phenomenon for both countries involved. The two share historical, cultural and political ties, but most importantly common financial interests. Russian companies seek security and financial knowledge to maneuver their assets and Cyprian economy largely is dependent on their disproportionally large financial sector. Consequences for Cyprian economy were seen in current economic crisis, when the need for their financial services diminished. Russian government on the other hand is losing vast amounts of tax money due to this phenomenon. A rather extreme view was also introduced in this study. Round-tripping phenomenon and OFCs are an important reason why corruption exists, since if one does not have a way to make ill-gained money legitimate why try to ill-gain the money at the first place. The most important finding of the study is that round-tripping companies are in a better competitive position than genuine and purely domestic investor due to their institutional knowledge.

Crowdfunding as a new funding alternative for early stage start-ups

Attracting outside capital is a common problem for start-up companies. Capital markets define the funding options for companies and firms which suffer the most from these capital market imperfections are small start-up companies. Therefore it is important to study any new funding model which can offer a new solution to this inefficiency of capital markets. This study explains the traditional funding models for start-ups such as founders, friends & family, banks, business angels and venture capitalist. After giving background to traditional start-up funding this study delves into crowfunding (CF) and introduces it as a new funding method. The objective of the thesis is to answer one broad research question: Why and how should start-up companies use CF as an alternative funding method? To properly delve into this, this question has the following sub-questions: What kind of funding alternatives do start-up companies have? What are the pros and cons of CF compared to other funding options? How can start-ups benefit from CF? This study gives background on the rise of CF and the reasons why this new model is needed. Author will explain the different components of CF such as platforms, crowdfunders and projects. Also benefits and challenges of the crowdfunding model are investigated. As a new funding model CF has had to clear out many obstacles from its way. These are, for example, legal and regulatory issues as well education of crowd investors to understand this new investment option. . Start-up entrepreneurs can gain valuable insight from this study. The author has attempted to form best practices and guidelines of how to operate in the CF environment. This study was conducted by performing expert interviews, collecting data from previous studies and performing a content analysis of successful crowdfunding cases. Main findings from the study were that CF has huge potential in funding entrepreneurial projects. It is still a niche way for funding but growing rapidly. CF is earning its place among traditional funding options and has potential to fund projects which otherwise would struggle to find funding. With CF entrepreneur can tap into geographically diverse audience. It is a powerful validation tool for products and ideas and has the power to bring democratic elements to entrepreneurial funding.