Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Novel Methods for Error Modeling and Parameter Identification of a Redundant Serial-Parallel Hybrid Robot

To obtain the desirable accuracy of a robot, there are two techniques available. The first option would be to make the robot match the nominal mathematic model. In other words, the manufacturing and assembling tolerances of every part would be extremely tight so that all of the various parameters would match the “design” or “nominal” values as closely as possible. This method can satisfy most of the accuracy requirements， but the cost would increase dramatically as the accuracy requirement increases. Alternatively, a more cost-effective solution is to build a manipulator with relaxed manufacturing and assembling tolerances. By modifying the mathematical model in the controller, the actual errors of the robot can be compensated. This is the essence of robot calibration. Simply put, robot calibration is the process of defining an appropriate error model and then identifying the various parameter errors that make the error model match the robot as closely as possible. This work focuses on kinematic calibration of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. The robot consists of a 4-DOF serial mechanism and a 6-DOF hexapod parallel manipulator. The redundant 4-DOF serial structure is used to enlarge workspace and the 6-DOF hexapod manipulator is used to provide high load capabilities and stiffness for the whole structure. The main objective of the study is to develop a suitable calibration method to improve the accuracy of the redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. To this end, a Denavit–Hartenberg (DH) hybrid error model and a Product-of-Exponential (POE) error model are developed for error modeling of the proposed robot. Furthermore, two kinds of global optimization methods, i.e. the differential-evolution (DE) algorithm and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, are employed to identify the parameter errors of the derived error model. A measurement method based on a 3-2-1 wire-based pose estimation system is proposed and implemented in a Solidworks environment to simulate the real experimental validations. Numerical simulations and Solidworks prototype-model validations are carried out on the hybrid robot to verify the effectiveness, accuracy and robustness of the calibration algorithms.

Parameter estimation and use of gamma interferon assay for the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis in Brazil

This study aimed to evaluate the interference of tuberculin test on the gamma-interferon (INFg) assay, to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay in Brazilian conditions, and to simulate multiple testing using the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. Three hundred-fifty cattle from two TB-free and two TB-infected herds were submitted to the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. The comparative tuberculin test was performed using avian and bovine PPD. The INFg assay was performed by the BovigamTM kit (CSL Veterinary, Australia), according to the manufacturer's specifications. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay were assessed by a Bayesian latent class model. These diagnostic parameters were also estimate for multiple testing. The results of INFg assay on D0 and D3 after the comparative tuberculin test were compared by the McNemar's test and kappa statistics. Results of mean optical density from INFg assay on both days were similar. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay showed results varying (95% confidence intervals) from 72 to 100% and 74 to 100% respectively. Sensitivity of parallel testing was over 97.5%, while specificity of serial testing was over 99.7%. The INFg assay proved to be a very useful diagnostic method.

Parameter optimization of AC rectangular wave outputs for aluminum cold wire GTAW

The objective of this work was to optimize the parameter setup for GTAW of aluminum using an AC rectangular wave output and continuous feeding. A series of welds was carried-out in an industrial joint, with variation of the negative and positive current amplitude, the negative and positive duration time, the travel speed and the feeding speed. Another series was carried out to investigate the isolate effect of the negative duration time and travel speed. Bead geometry aspects were assessed, such as reinforcement, penetration, incomplete fusion and joint wall bridging. The results showed that currents at both polarities are remarkably more significant than the respective duration times. It was also shown that there is a straight relationship between welding speed and feeding speed and this relationship must be followed for obtaining sound beads. A very short positive duration time is enough for arc stability achievement and when the negative duration time is longer than 5 ms its effect on geometry appears. The possibility of optimizing the parameter selection, despite the high inter-correlation amongst them, was demonstrate through a computer program. An approach to reduce the number of variables in this process is also presented.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Double-Star Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines

The power rating of wind turbines is constantly increasing; however, keeping the voltage rating at the low-voltage level results in high kilo-ampere currents. An alternative for increasing the power levels without raising the voltage level is provided by multiphase machines. Multiphase machines are used for instance in ship propulsion systems, aerospace applications, electric vehicles, and in other high-power applications including wind energy conversion systems. A machine model in an appropriate reference frame is required in order to design an efficient control for the electric drive. Modeling of multiphase machines poses a challenge because of the mutual couplings between the phases. Mutual couplings degrade the drive performance unless they are properly considered. In certain multiphase machines there is also a problem of high current harmonics, which are easily generated because of the small current path impedance of the harmonic components. However, multiphase machines provide special characteristics compared with the three-phase counterparts: Multiphase machines have a better fault tolerance, and are thus more robust. In addition, the controlled power can be divided among more inverter legs by increasing the number of phases. Moreover, the torque pulsation can be decreased and the harmonic frequency of the torque ripple increased by an appropriate multiphase configuration. By increasing the number of phases it is also possible to obtain more torque per RMS ampere for the same volume, and thus, increase the power density. In this doctoral thesis, a decoupled d–q model of double-star permanent-magnet (PM) synchronous machines is derived based on the inductance matrix diagonalization. The double-star machine is a special type of multiphase machines. Its armature consists of two three-phase winding sets, which are commonly displaced by 30 electrical degrees. In this study, the displacement angle between the sets is considered a parameter. The diagonalization of the inductance matrix results in a simplified model structure, in which the mutual couplings between the reference frames are eliminated. Moreover, the current harmonics are mapped into a reference frame, in which they can be easily controlled. The work also presents methods to determine the machine inductances by a finite-element analysis and by voltage-source inverters on-site. The derived model is validated by experimental results obtained with an example double-star interior PM (IPM) synchronous machine having the sets displaced by 30 electrical degrees. The derived transformation, and consequently, the decoupled d–q machine model, are shown to model the behavior of an actual machine with an acceptable accuracy. Thus, the proposed model is suitable to be used for the model-based control design of electric drives consisting of double-star IPM synchronous machines.

Effect of ventilation on systemic blood flow evaluated by echodopplercardiography

Systemic blood flow (Q) was measured by echodopplercardiography in 5 normal young adult males during apnea, eupnea and tachypnea. Measurements were made in a recumbent posture at 3-min intervals. Tachypnea was attained by doubling the respiratory frequency at eupnea at a constant tidal volume. An open glottis was maintained during apnea at the resting respiratory level. The Q values were positively correlated with the respiratory frequency, decreasing from eupnea to apnea and increasing from eupnea to tachypnea (P<0.05). These data demonstrate that echodopplercardiography, a better qualified tool for this purpose, confirms the positive and progressive effects of ventilation on systemic blood flow, as suggested by previous studies based on diverse technical approaches

Reference values for lung function tests: II. Maximal respiratory pressures and voluntary ventilation

The strength of the respiratory muscles can be evaluated from static measurements (maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures, MIP and MEP) or inferred from dynamic maneuvers (maximal voluntary ventilation, MVV). Although these data could be suitable for a number of clinical and research applications, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy, randomly selected sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations for MIP, MEP and MVV were developed by multiple regression analysis: age and, secondarily, anthropometric measurements explained up to 56% of the variability of the dependent variables. The most cited previous studies using either Caucasian or non-Caucasian samples systematically underestimated the observed values of MIP (P<0.05). Interestingly, the self-reported level of regular physical activity and maximum aerobic power correlates strongly with both respiratory and peripheral muscular strength (knee extensor peak torque) (P<0.01). Our results, therefore, provide a new frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of some useful indexes of respiratory muscle strength in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80.

Ventilation with high tidal volume induces inflammatory lung injury

Mechanical ventilation with high tidal volumes (V T) has been shown to induce lung injury. We examined the hypothesis that this procedure induces lung injury with inflammatory features. Anesthetized male Wistar rats were randomized into three groups: group 1 (N = 12): V T = 7 ml/kg, respiratory rate (RR) = 50 breaths/min; group 2 (N = 10): V T = 21 ml/kg, RR = 16 breaths/min; group 3 (N = 11): V T = 42 ml/kg, RR = 8 breaths/min. The animals were ventilated with fraction of inspired oxygen of 1 and positive end-expiratory pressure of 2 cmH2O. After 4 h of ventilation, group 3, compared to groups 1 and 2, had lower PaO2 [280 (range 73-458) vs 517 (range 307-596), and 547 mmHg (range 330-662), respectively, P<0.05], higher wet lung weight [3.62 ± 0.91 vs 1.69 ± 0.48 and 1.44 ± 0.20 g, respectively, P<0.05], and higher wet lung weight/dry lung weight ratio [18.14 (range 11.55-26.31) vs 7.80 (range 4.79-12.18), and 6.34 (range 5.92-7.04), respectively, P<0.05]. Total cell and neutrophil counts were higher in group 3 compared to groups 1 and 2 (P<0.05), as were baseline TNF-alpha concentrations [134 (range <10-386) vs 16 (range <10-24), and 17 pg/ml (range <10-23), respectively, P<0.05]. Serum TNF-alpha concentrations reached a higher level in group 3, but without statistical significance. These results suggest that mechanical ventilation with high V T induces lung injury with inflammatory characteristics. This ventilatory strategy can affect the release of TNF-alpha in the lungs and can reach the systemic circulation, a finding that may have relevance for the development of a systemic inflammatory response.

Advanced epithelial ovarian cancer – studies on preoperative [18F] FDG PET/CT and HE4 profile during primary chemotherapy

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is usually diagnosed in an advanced stage. The prognosis depends highly on the amount of the residual tumor in surgery. In patients with extensive disease, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is used to diminish the tumor load before debulking surgery. New non-invasive methods are needed to preoperatively evaluate the disease dissemination and operability. [18F] FDG PET/CT (Positron emission tomography/computed tomography) is a promising method for cancer diagnostics and staging. The biomarker profiles during treatment can predict patient’s outcome. This prospective study included 41 EOC patients, 21 treated with primary surgery and 20 with NACT and interval surgery. The performances of preoperative contrast enhanced PET/CT (PET/ceCT) and diagnostic CT (ceCT) were compared. Perioperative visual estimation of tumor spread was studied in primary and interval surgery. The profile of the serum marker HE4 (Human epididymis 4) during primary chemotherapy was evaluated. In primary surgery, surgical findings were found to form an adequate reference standard for imaging studies. After NACT, the sensitivity for visual estimation of cancer dissemination was significantly worse. Preoperative PET/ceCT was more effective than ceCT alone in detecting extra-abdominal disease spread. The high number of supradiaphragmatic lymph node metastases detected by PET/ceCT at the time of diagnosis brings new insight in EOC spread patterns. The sensitivity of both PET/CT and ceCT remained modest in intra-abdominal areas important to operability. The HE4 profile was in concordance with the CA125 profile during primary chemotherapy. Its role in the evaluation of EOC chemotherapy response will be clarified in further studies.

Evaluation of two 99mTc-DTPA radioaerosols with different characteristics in lung ventilation studies

Two radioaerosol preparations, TechneScan®-DTPA (99mTc-DTPA, 40 mCi/3 ml; IPEN-CNEN, São Paulo, SP, Brazil) and TechneScan®-DTPA/AEROSOL (99mTc-DTPA/A, 15 mCi/1.5 ml with 0.5 ml ethanol; Mallinckrodt Medical, St. Louis, MO, USA), were compared in pulmonary ventilation studies in terms of total radiocounts and clearance after inhalation. An aerosol with ethanol is supposed to better distribute the radioparticles in the lungs. Twenty normal nonsmoking volunteers (10 men and 10 women), mean age of 23.2 years (range: 20 to 35 years), were studied. Images were obtained immediately and 30, 60 and 90 min after inhalation. Total and regional counts were obtained and the clearance half-lives of both lungs were determined. There was no difference in total counts between the two types of radioaerosol at any time (mean of ~188,000 cpm for male and female subjects at time zero in both aerosols). The highest count was obtained in the middle region of both lungs (P<0.001) with both preparations. The clearance half-life did not differ between aerosols (mean of ~80-88 min for male and female subjects for both aerosols). Small nonsignificant regional differences were observed. No differences between genders or between right and left lung were observed. 99mTc-DTPA/A generated the highest output of radioaerosol. 99mTc-DTPA with alcohol costs approximately five times more than the aerosol without alcohol. The present results show that either kind of aerosol may be adopted routinely for use in pulmonary examinations without affecting diagnosis. We suggest that the amount of 740 mBq (20 mCi) of 99mTc-DTPA in 1.5 ml saline can be used for routine examinations resulting in reduction of costs in pulmonary ventilation studies without diagnostic impairment.

The use and misuse of the "impact factor" as a parameter for evaluation of scientific publication quality: a proposal to rationalize its application

We present a critical analysis of the generalized use of the "impact factor". By means of the Kruskal-Wallis test, it was shown that it is not possible to compare distinct disciplines using the impact factor without adjustments. After assigning the median journal the value of one (1.000), the impact factor value for each journal was calculated by the rule of three. The adjusted values were homogeneous, thus permitting comparison among distinct disciplines.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

Intensification of hemicellulose hot-water extraction from spruce wood by parameter tuning

The growing population on earth along with diminishing fossil deposits and the climate change debate calls out for a better utilization of renewable, bio-based materials. In a biorefinery perspective, the renewable biomass is converted into many different products such as fuels, chemicals, and materials, quite similar to the petroleum refinery industry. Since forests cover about one third of the land surface on earth, ligno-cellulosic biomass is the most abundant renewable resource available. The natural first step in a biorefinery is separation and isolation of the different compounds the biomass is comprised of. The major components in wood are cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, all of which can be made into various end-products. Today, focus normally lies on utilizing only one component, e.g., the cellulose in the Kraft pulping process. It would be highly desirable to utilize all the different compounds, both from an economical and environmental point of view. The separation process should therefore be optimized. Hemicelluloses can partly be extracted with hot-water prior to pulping. Depending in the severity of the extraction, the hemicelluloses are degraded to various degrees. In order to be able to choose from a variety of different end-products, the hemicelluloses should be as intact as possible after the extraction. The main focus of this work has been on preserving the hemicellulose molar mass throughout the extraction at a high yield by actively controlling the extraction pH at the high temperatures used. Since it has not been possible to measure pH during an extraction due to the high temperatures, the extraction pH has remained a “black box”. Therefore, a high-temperature in-line pH measuring system was developed, validated, and tested for hot-water wood extractions. One crucial step in the measurements is calibration, therefore extensive efforts was put on developing a reliable calibration procedure. Initial extractions with wood showed that the actual extraction pH was ~0.35 pH units higher than previously believed. The measuring system was also equipped with a controller connected to a pump. With this addition it was possible to control the extraction to any desired pH set point. When the pH dropped below the set point, the controller started pumping in alkali and by that the desired set point was maintained very accurately. Analyses of the extracted hemicelluloses showed that less hemicelluloses were extracted at higher pH but with a higher molar-mass. Monomer formation could, at a certain pH level, be completely inhibited. Increasing the temperature, but maintaining a specific pH set point, would speed up the extraction without degrading the molar-mass of the hemicelluloses and thereby intensifying the extraction. The diffusion of the dissolved hemicelluloses from the wood particle is a major part of the extraction process. Therefore, a particle size study ranging from 0.5 mm wood particles to industrial size wood chips was conducted to investigate the internal mass transfer of the hemicelluloses. Unsurprisingly, it showed that hemicelluloses were extracted faster from smaller wood particles than larger although it did not seem to have a substantial effect on the average molar mass of the extracted hemicelluloses. However, smaller particle sizes require more energy to manufacture and thus increases the economic cost. Since bark comprises 10 – 15 % of a tree, it is important to also consider it in a biorefinery concept. Spruce inner and outer bark was hot-water extracted separately to investigate the possibility to isolate the bark hemicelluloses. It was showed that the bark hemicelluloses comprised mostly of pectic material and differed considerably from the wood hemicelluloses. The bark hemicelluloses, or pectins, could be extracted at lower temperatures than the wood hemicelluloses. A chemical characterization, done separately on inner and outer bark, showed that inner bark contained over 10 % stilbene glucosides that could be extracted already at 100 °C with aqueous acetone.

Dendritic thickness: a morphometric parameter to classify mouse retinal ganglion cells

To study the dendritic morphology of retinal ganglion cells in wild-type mice we intracellularly injected these cells with Lucifer yellow in an in vitro preparation of the retina. Subsequently, quantified values of dendritic thickness, number of branching points and level of stratification of 73 Lucifer yellow-filled ganglion cells were analyzed by statistical methods, resulting in a classification into 9 groups. The variables dendritic thickness, number of branching points per cell and level of stratification were independent of each other. Number of branching points and level of stratification were independent of eccentricity, whereas dendritic thickness was positively dependent (r = 0.37) on it. The frequency distribution of dendritic thickness tended to be multimodal, indicating the presence of at least two cell populations composed of neurons with dendritic diameters either smaller or larger than 1.8 µm ("thin" or "thick" dendrites, respectively). Three cells (4.5%) were bistratified, having thick dendrites, and the others (95.5%) were monostratified. Using k-means cluster analysis, monostratified cells with either thin or thick dendrites were further subdivided according to level of stratification and number of branching points: cells with thin dendrites were divided into 2 groups with outer stratification (0-40%) and 2 groups with inner (50-100%) stratification, whereas cells with thick dendrites were divided into one group with outer and 3 groups with inner stratification. We postulate, that one group of cells with thin dendrites resembles cat ß-cells, whereas one group of cells with thick dendrites includes cells that resemble cat a-cells.