Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Sistema de Informació i Gestió Integral de la Producció Pesquera Internacional (SIGIPPI)

Des de la ciència geogràfica combinada amb el coneixement biològic i comercial, aquest projecte pretén crear una eina basada en la biogeografia i les últimes tecnologies de la Informació Geogràfica, que permetrà a l’usuari disposar de informació actualitzada per cada espècie amb interès comercial. El projecte es basa en el desenvolupament d’una aplicació web de consulta, entrada i actualització de dades referents a la producció pesquera internacional. Les eines utilitzades són les bases de dades MySQL i PostgreSQL i programació web amb html, php i javacript. Aquesta aplicació està pensada per ser accessible des de qualsevol ordinador amb connexió a internet i es subdivideix en tres sub-aplicacions. La primera sub-aplicació es basa en l’entrada d’espècies a partir de l’estructura taxonòmica. Partint de l’arbre taxonòmic, l’usuari té la possibilitat d’entrar, eliminar o modificar qualsevol tàxon o espècie. La segona subaplicació és una eina de digitalització cartogràfica on-line on l’usuari podrà marcar, eliminar o modificar sobre un mapa les localitzacions de les espècies que estiguin entrades en la sub-aplicació anterior. Finalment, la tercera sub-aplicació és una eina d’entrada de dades quinzenals referent als comportaments pel que fa tan a les dimensions com a les disponibilitats de pesca per cada espècie i localització.

The Discrimination of Colored Acrylic, Cotton, and Wool Textile Fibers Using Micro-Raman Spectroscopy. Part 1 : In Situ Detection and Characterization of Dyes

Raman spectroscopy has been applied to characterize fiber dyes and determine the discriminating ability of the method. Black, blue, and red acrylic, cotton, and wool samples were analyzed. Four excitation sources were used to obtain complementary responses in the case of fluorescent samples. Fibers that did not provide informative spectra using a given laser were usually detected using another wavelength. For any colored acrylic, the 633-nm laser did not provide Raman information. The 514-nm laser provided the highest discrimination for blue and black cotton, but half of the blue cottons produced noninformative spectra. The 830-nm laser exhibited the highest discrimination for red cotton. Both visible lasers provided the highest discrimination for black and blue wool, and NIR lasers produced remarkable separation for red and black wool. This study shows that the discriminating ability of Raman spectroscopy depends on the fiber type, color, and the laser wavelength.

Raising the Level of Moral Thinking among Managers Will Not Help. Kohlberg's Conventionality and Systemic Ethical Flaws in Business

Business ethicists often assume that unethical behavior arises when individuals deviate from the norms and responsibilities that are institutionalized to frame economic activities. People's greed motivates them to violate the rules of the game. In Kohlberg's terms, it is assumed that such actors make decisions in a preconventional way and act opportunistically. In this article, we propose an alternative interpretation of deviant behavior, arguing that such behavior does not result from a lack of conventional moral guidance but rather from the fact that characteristics attributed to preconventional morality by Kohlberg - the purely incentive and punishment driven opportunistic morality - have become the conventionalized morality. The prevailing norms that economic actors have internalized as their yardstick are those of the preconventional Homo economicus. Not the deviation from, but the compliance with the rules of the game explains many forms of harmful and illegal decisions made in corporations.

Business research, self-fulfilling prophecy, and the inherent responsibility of scholars.

Business research and teaching institutions play an important role in shaping the way businesses perceive their relations to the broader society and its moral expectations. Hence, as ethical scandals recently arose in the business world, questions related to the civic responsibilities of business scholars and to the role business schools play in society have gained wider interest. In this article, I argue that these ethical shortcomings are at least partly resulting from the mainstream business model with its taken-for granted basic assumptions such as specialization or the value-neutrality of business research. Redefining the roles and civic responsibilities of business scholars for business practice implies therefore a thorough analysis of these assumptions if not their redefinition. The takenforgrantedness of the mainstream business model is questioned by the transformation of the societal context in which business activities are embedded. Its value-neutrality in turn is challenged by self-fulfilling prophecy effects, which highlight the normative influence of business schools. In order to critically discuss some basic assumptions of mainstream business theory, I propose to draw parallels with the corporate citizenship concept and the stakeholder theory. Their integrated approach of the relation between business practice and the broader society provides interesting insights for the social reembedding of business research and teaching.

Empirical studies in industrial location: an assessment of their methods and results

This paper surveys recent evidence on the determinants of (national and/or foreign) industrial location. We find that the basic analytical framework has remained essentially unaltered since the early contributions of the early 1980's while, in contrast, there have been significant advances in the quality of the data and, to a lesser extent, the econometric modelling. We also identify certain determinants (neoclassical and institutional factors) that tend to provide largely consistent results across the reviewed studies. In light of this evidence, we finally suggest future lines of research.

Structure du temps de travail des infirmières de santé publique: effets de l'âge des patients, de la nature des prestations fournies et du lieu du contact. [Structure of work times of public health nurses: effect of the age of patients, nature of care given and location of contact].

In the framework of health services research sponsored by the Swiss National Science Foundation, a research was undertaken of the activity of the large majority of the public health nurses working in the Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population 700,000). During one week, 130 nurses gathered, with a specially devised instrument, data on 4165 patient visits. Studying the duration of the contacts, one has distinguished contact duration per se (DC), duration of the travel time preceding the contact (DD), and total duration in relation with the contact (DTC-addition of the first two). It was noted that the three durations increased significantly with patient age (as regard travel time, this is explained by the higher proportion of home visits in higher age groups, as compared with visits at a health center). Examined according to location of the visit, contact duration per se (without travel) is higher for visits at home and in nursing homes than for those taking place at a health center. Looked at in respect to the care given (technical care, or basic nursing care, or both simultaneously), our data show that the provision of basic nursing care (alone or with technical care) doubles contact duration (from 20 to 42-45'). The analyses according to patient age shows that, at an advanced age (beyond 80 years particularly), there is an important increase of the visits where both types of care are given. However, contact duration per se shows a significant raise with age only for the group "technical care only"; it can be demonstrated that this is due to the fact that older patients require more complex technical acts (e.g., bladder care, as compared with simpler acts such as injection). A model of the relationships between patient age and contact duration is proposed: it is because of the increase in the proportions of home visits, of visits including basic nursing care, and of more complex technical acts that older persons require more of the working time of public health nurses.

Tax differentials and agglomeration economies in intraregional firm location

This paper analyses empirically how differences in local taxes affect the intraregional location of new manufacturing plants. These effects are examined within the random profit maximization framework while accounting for the presence of different types of agglomeration economies (localization/ urbanization/ Jacobs’ economies) at the municipal level. We look at the location decision of more than 10,000 establishments locating between 1996 and 2003 across more than 400 municipalities in Catalonia, a Spanish region. It is necessary to restrict the choice set to the local labor market and, above all, to control for agglomeration economies so as to identify the effects of taxes on the location of new establishments.

Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

Financial shocks and the US business cycle

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.