Brotherly love and filial obedience: the commemorative programme of the Avis princes at Santa Maria da Vitória, Batalha

This dissertation focuses on a rare 15th century commemorative programme that has thus far received little scholarly attention: the collective monument erected in the Founder’s Chapel, at the Monastery of Santa Maria da Vitória, Batalha, to house the remains of four Avis princes, members of what would become known as ‘the Illustrious Generation’. A patron is proposed for the commission of this erudite monument - the princes’ eldest brother, king Duarte I - arguing its integration into a broader propaganda programme to glorify the memory of the Avis dynasty founder, king João I. The dissertation then proceeds to discuss various highly innovative features of the monument, such as its pseudo-architectural character, its use of sophisticated heraldry and personal badges, the apparent absence of religious iconography on the tombs and, importantly, the collective nature of the programme, key to its interpretation. Using a semiotic approach, a discussion is also offered on the way the various formal, iconographic and conceptual novelties of the princes’ monument impacted on the 15th century monumental landscape in Portugal. Finally, the monument and the chapel housing it are looked at through the prism of the various readings that successive generations of viewers have projected onto it, from the time of its creation to the turn of the 20th century, in order to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the object as it stands today.

Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea: Issues and Solutions for the 21st Century

A producer of 5.4 M bbl/d, totalling almost half of the consumption of the entire European Union, the Gulf of Guinea is a fundamental lifeline and maritime link between Europe, the Americas and Africa. Geographically positioned as a staging post for transit originating in Latin America and coupled with its relatively porous borders, the region is also the perfect stepping stone for contraband heading to European shores. While blessed with an enviable wealth of marine and mineral resources, the region is also plagued by an ever-increasing spectre of maritime piracy; accounting for around 30% of incidents in African waters from 2003 to 2011. It is for these reasons that this research centres around the issues of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, with a particular focus on the first two decades of the 21st century. This research looks to examine the overall picture of the present state of play in the area, before going on to provide an analysis of potential regional developments in maritime security. This research begins with the analysis of concepts/phenomena that have played a notable role in the shaping of the field of maritime security, namely Globalisation and security issues in the post-Cold War era. The ensuing chapter then focuses in on the Gulf of Guinea and the issues dominating the field of maritime security in the region. The penultimate chapter presents a SWOT analysis, undertaken as part of this research with the aim of correlating opinions from a variety of sectors/professions regarding maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. The final chapter builds upon the results obtained from the abovementioned SWOT analysis, presenting a series of potential proposals/strategies that can contribute to the field of maritime security in the region over the coming years. This research draws to a close with the presentation of conclusions taken from this particular investigation, as well as a final overview of the earlier presented proposals applicable to the field of maritime security during the second decade of the 21st century.

Office of the City Clerk, St. Catharines Records, 1928-1974, n.d.

The site of present-day St. Catharines was settled by 3000 United Empire Loyalists at the end of the 18th century. From 1790, the settlement (then known as "The Twelve") grew as an agricultural community. St. Catharines was once referred to Shipman's Corners after Paul Shipman, owner of a tavern that was an important stagecoach transfer point. In 1815, leading businessman William Hamilton Merritt abandoned his wharf at Queenston and set up another at Shipman's Corners. He became involved in the construction and operation of several lumber and gristmills along Twelve Mile Creek. Shipman's Corners soon became the principal milling site of the eastern Niagara Peninsula. At about the same time, Merritt began to develop the salt springs that were discovered along the river which subsequently gave the village a reputation as a health resort. By this time St. Catharines was the official name of the village; the origin of the name remains obscure, but is thought to be named after Catharine Askin Robertson Hamilton, wife of the Hon. Robert Hamilton, a prominent businessman. Merritt devised a canal scheme from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario that would provide a more reliable water supply for the mills while at the same time function as a canal. He formed the Welland Canal Company, and construction took place from 1824 to 1829. The canal and the mills made St. Catharines the most important industrial centre in Niagara. By 1845, St. Catharines was incorporated as a town, with the town limits extending in 1854. Administrative and political functions were added to St. Catharines in 1862 when it became the county seat of Lincoln. In 1871, construction began on the third Welland Canal, which attracted additional population to the town. As a consequence of continual growth, the town limits were again extended. St. Catharines attained city status in 1876 with its larger population and area. Manufacturing became increasingly important in St. Catharines in the early 1900s with the abundance of hydro-electric power, and its location on important land and water routes. The large increase in population after the 1900s was mainly due to the continued industrialization and urbanization of the northern part of the city and the related expansion of business activity. The fourth Welland Canal was opened in 1932 as the third canal could no longer accommodate the larger ships. The post war years and the automobile brought great change to the urban form of St. Catharines. St. Catharines began to spread its boundaries in all directions with land being added five times during the 1950s. The Town of Merritton, Village of Port Dalhousie and Grantham Township were all incorporated as part of St. Catharines in 1961. In 1970 the Province of Ontario implemented a regional approach to deal with such issues as planning, pollution, transportation and services. As a result, Louth Township on the west side of the city was amalgamated, extending the city's boundary to Fifteen Mile Creek. With its current population of 131,989, St. Catharines has become the dominant centre of the Niagara region. Source: City of St. Catharines website http://www.stcatharines.ca/en/governin/HistoryOfTheCity.asp (January 27, 2011)

Photograph of Unidentified Woman by C. Arthur, Photographer, St. Catharines [n.d.]

An unidentified young woman is featured in this undated black and white studio photograph by C. Arthur, Photographer, of St. Catharines, Ontario. This small cabinet card photograph was in the possession of the Iris Sloman Bell family of St. Catharines. Relatives of the Sloman - Bell families include former African American slaves who settled in Canada.Two photographers by the name of Arthur are listed as working in St. Catharines, Ontario in the second half of the 19th century. Charles A. Arthur was a photographer from 1880 - 1883, while Charles P. Arthur (possibly a son?) is listed as a photographer in 1898. Source: Phillips, Glen C. The Ontario photographers list (1851-1900). Sarnia: Iron Gate Publishing Co., 1990.

Photograph of Unidentified Man by J. W. Cole, Photographer [n.d.]

This is a small cabinet card of an unidentified man, photographed by J. W. Cole, of Brampton, Ont. He is possibly a relative of the Bell - Sloman family, whose descendants include former Black slaves who settled in Canada. While this photograph is undated, it is believed to be taken between 1865 and 1884. The photographer's stamp is printed in gold lettering along the bottom of the card. This photograph was in the possession of Iris Sloman Bell, of St. Catharines.Two photographers by the name of Cole are known to have worked in Brampton, Ontario in the latter half of the 19th century. J.F. (John W.?) is listed as a photographer in 1882, while John W. Cole operated from 1865-1884. John W. Cole is also listed as a daguerrean artist, that is, he produced daguerreotypes. He also dabbled in commerce, selling fancy goods. Source: Phillips, Glen C. The Ontario photographers list (1851-1900). Sarnia: Iron Gate Publishing Co., 1990.

Rights of the Prisoner: An Evolving Jurisprudence

Imprisonment is the most common method of punishment resorted to by almost all legal systems.The new theories of crime causation propounded in the latter half of the nineteenth century gave rise to the feeling that the prisons could be used as appropriate institutions for reforming the offenders. It called for individualisation of punishment.As a result of international movements for humanisation of prisons the judiciary' in tine common law countries started taking active interest in prisoner's treatment.Various studies reveal that much has been done in America to improve the lot of prisoners and to treat them as human beings.The courts there have gone to the extent of saying that there is no iron curtain between a prisoner and the constitution. Most of the rights available to citizens except those which they cannot enjoy due to the conditions of incarceration have also been granted to prisoner.In India also the judiciary has come forward to protect the rights of the prisoners.Maneka Gandhi is a turning point in prisoner's rights.The repeated intervention of courts in prison administration project the view that prisoners have been denied the basic human rights.The High Courts and the Supreme Court of India have been gradually exercising jurisdiction ixl assuming prison justice, including improving the quality of food and amenities, payment of wages and appropriate standards of medical care. Access to courts must be made easier to the aggrieved prisoners.The government should come forward along with some public spirited citizens and voluntary organisations to form a "discharged prisoner“ aid society. The society should exploit opportunities for rehabilitation of prisoners after their release.Most of the prison buildings in the State of Kerala are ill-equipped, ill furnished and without proper ventilation or sanitation and with insufficient water supply arrangements.In India prisoners and prisons today are governed by the old central legislations like Prisons Act l894 Prisoners Act 1900 and the Transfer of Prisoners Act 1950.

Criminal justice system in pondicherry - a comparative critical study of the past and the presen

The Union Territory of Pondicherry prior to its merger with the Indian Union was a French Colony. The erstwhile territory of Pondicherry along with its hamlets, namely, KARAIKKAL, MAHE and YANAM was administered by the French Regime. Before it was established by French in 1 6 74 A.D. it was part of Vijayanagara Empire. Prior to this, Pondicherry was a part of the Kingdom of Chola and Pallava Kings. During French Regime, the laws which were in force in France in relation to administration of civil and criminal justice were extended to the erstwhile Territory of Pondicherry. Thus while Pondicherry stood influenced by the Inquisitorial system since the beginning of the 18th century, the neighboring states forming part of the Indian Union since Independence came under the Influence of the British system, viz. accusatorial system. The territory of Pondicherry, for administrative reasons, came to be merged with the Indian Union in the early 60's. Following the merger, the Indian administration sought to extent its own laws from time to time replacing erstwhile French Laws, however, subject to certain savings. Thus the transitional period witnessed consequential changes in the administration of the territory, including the sphere of judicial system. Since I 963, the Union Territory of Pondicherry was brought under the spell of the Indian Legal System The people in Pondicherry ' thus have had the benefit of experiencing both the svstems. Their experiences will be of much help to those who undertake comparative studies in law. The plus and minus points of the respective systems help one to develop a detachment that helps independent evaluation of the svstents. The result of these studies could be relevant in revitalising our criminal systems.The present system is evaluated in the light of the past system. New dimensions are added by way' of an empirical study also.

Influence of the lateral pterygoid muscle on the growth of the mandibular condilar cartilage

At the end of the last century, a model to explain clinical observations related to the mandibular growth was developed. According to it, the lateral pterigoid muscle (LPM) was one of the main modulators of the differentiation of mesenquimal cells inside the condyle to condroblasts or osteoblasts, and therefore of the growth of the mandibular condilar cartilage (CCM). The main components of the model were the humoral and the mechanical. Nowadays, the humoral would include growth factors such as IGF-I, FGF-2 and VEGF, which seem to be involved in mandibular growth. Since skeletal muscle can secrete these growth factors, there is a possibility that LPM modulates the growth of CCM by a paracrine or endocrine mechanism. The mechanical component derived from the observations that both the blood flow inside the temporomandibular joint (ATM) and the action of the retrodiscal pad on the growth of the CCM, depend, in part, on the contractile activity of the LPM. Despite the fact that there are some results suggesting  hat LPM is activated under conditions of mandibular protrusion, there is no full agreement on whether this can stimulate the growth of CCM. In this review, the contributions and limitations of the works related to mandibular growth are discussed and a model which integrates the available information to explain the role of the LPM in the growth of the CCM is proposed.

Freedom of the Press in Canada and Colombia

A general conclusion of the history of the Canadian press demonstrates that state was built after true journalism had been consolidating. Press development went along with economic progress and this was achievable, in great measure, because of the manner colonization took place in North America. This aided the de facto nationalization of press freedom in Canada. In Colombia, on the contrary, wealth concentration and the Spanish failure to build an economic market, resulted in a constant political instability from the time the Independence War. Legal and the de facto nationalization would be attained only at the end of the twentieth century, though journalism was already part of the institutional arrangement.-----Una conclusión general de la historia de la prensa canadiense demuestra que el estado actual se construyó después de haberse consolidado el verdadero periodismo. El desarrollo de la prensa fue paralelo al progreso económico y se pudo lograr en gran medida por la forma en que se colonizó Norteamérica. Esto ayudó a la nacionalización de facto de la libertad de prensa en Canadá. En Colombia, por el contrario, la concentración de la riqueza y el hecho de que los españoles no construyeran un mercado económico produjeron una inestabilidad política constante desde la época de la Guerra por la Independencia. La nacionalización legal y de hecho solamente se logró a finales del siglo XX, aunque el periodismo ya era parte de la organización institucional. 

Who am I? An identity crisis Identity in the new museologies and the role of the museum professional

Whilst the title of this essay suggests more than one “new museology”, it was rather a licence poétique to emphasize the two major theoretical movements that have evolved in the second half of the 20th Century[1]. As a result of the place(s)/contexts where they originated, and for clarity purposes, they have been labelled in this essay as the “Latin new museology” and the “Anglo-Saxon new museology”; however they both identify themselves by just the name of “New Museology”. Even though they both shared similar ideas on participation and inclusion, the language barriers were probably the cause for many ideas not to be fully shared by both groups. The “Latin New museology” was the outcome of a specific context that started in the 1960s (de Varine 1996); being a product of the “Second Museum Revolution”(1970s)[2], it provided new perceptions of heritage, such as “common heritage”. In 1972 ICOM organized the Santiago Round Table, which advocated for museums to engage with the communities they serve, assigning them a role of “problem solvers” within the community (Primo 1999:66). These ideas lead to the concept of the Integral Museum. The Quebec Declaration in 1984 declared that a museum’s aim should be community development and not only “the preservation of past civilisations’ material artefacts”, followed by the Oaxtepec Declaration that claimed for the relationship between territory-heritage-community to be indissoluble (Primo 1999: 69). Finally, in 1992, the Caracas Declaration argued for the museum to “take the responsibility as a social manager reflecting the community’s interests”(Primo 1999: 71). [1] There have been at least three different applications of the term ( Peter van Mensch cited in Mason: 23) [2] According to Santos Primo, this Second Museum Revolution was the result of the Santiago Round Table in Chile, 1972, and furthered by the 1st New Museology International Workshop (Quebec, 1984), Oaxtepec Meeting (Mexico, 1984) and the Caracas Meeting (Venezuela, 1992) (Santos Primo : 63-64)

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

An extension of the well-known quaternary section at Godrevy, St Ives Bay, West Cornwall: analysis and review

The well-known Quaternary section at Godrevy, west Cornwall has been often described during the past half century, however, a further section, about a kilometre to the south is considered for the first time since a brief mention at the beginning of the last century. This 200m long exposure rests upon a raised shore platform and consists of a basal raised beach and littoral sand, overlain by a local diamict revealing evidence of post-depositional frost disturbance and finally Holocene dune sand. It is proposed that this Strap Rock site be included within the general discussion of the Godrevy section.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Sustained monitoring of the Southern Ocean at Drake Passage: past achievements and future priorities

Drake Passage is the narrowest constriction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Southern Ocean, with implications for global ocean circulation and climate. We review the long-term sustained monitoring programmes that have been conducted at Drake Passage, dating back to the early part of the twentieth century. Attention is drawn to numerous breakthroughs that have been made from these programmes, including (a) the first determinations of the complex ACC structure and early quantifications of its transport; (b) realization that the ACC transport is remarkably steady over interannual and longer periods, and a growing understanding of the processes responsible for this; (c) recognition of the role of coupled climate modes in dictating the horizontal transport, and the role of anthropogenic processes in this; (d) understanding of mechanisms driving changes in both the upper and lower limbs of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, and their impacts. It is argued that monitoring of this passage remains a high priority for oceanographic and climate research, but that strategic improvements could be made concerning how this is conducted. In particular, long-term programmes should concentrate on delivering quantifications of key variables of direct relevance to large-scale environmental issues: in this context, the time-varying overturning circulation is, if anything, even more compelling a target than the ACC flow. Further, there is a need for better international resource-sharing, and improved spatio-temporal coordination of the measurements. If achieved, the improvements in understanding of important climatic issues deriving from Drake Passage monitoring can be sustained into the future.