Non-consumptive effects of predators in coral reef communities and the indirect consequences of marine protected areas

Predators exert strong direct and indirect effects on ecological communities by intimidating their prey. Non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators are important features of many ecosystems and have changed the way we understand predator-prey interactions, but are not well understood in some systems. For my dissertation research I combined a variety of approaches to examine the effect of predation risk on herbivore foraging and reproductive behaviors in a coral reef ecosystem. In the first part of my dissertation, I investigated how diet and territoriality of herbivorous fish varied across multiple reefs with different levels of predator biomass in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. I show that both predator and damselfish abundance impacted diet diversity within populations for two herbivores in different ways. Additionally, reef protection and the associated recovery of large predators appeared to shape the trade-off reef herbivores made between territory size and quality. In the second part of my dissertation, I investigated context-dependent causal linkages between predation risk, herbivore foraging behavior and resource consumption in multiple field experiments. I found that reef complexity, predator hunting mode, light availability and prey hunger influenced prey perception of threat and their willingness to feed. This research argues for more emphasis on the role of predation risk in affecting individual herbivore foraging behavior in order to understand the implications of human-mediated predator removal and recovery in coral reef ecosystems.^

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

The Use of Hyphenated Spectrometric Techniques for the Environmental Forensic Assessment of Non-Traditional Pollutants and Degradates in the Greater Florida Everglades

A comprehensive investigation of sensitive ecosystems in South Florida with the main goal of determining the identity, spatial distribution, and sources of both organic biocides and trace elements in different environmental compartments is reported. This study presents the development and validation of a fractionation and isolation method of twelve polar acidic herbicides commonly applied in the vicinity of the study areas, including e.g. 2,4-D, MCPA, dichlorprop, mecroprop, picloram in surface water. Solid phase extraction (SPE) was used to isolate the analytes from abiotic matrices containing large amounts of dissolved organic material. Atmospheric-pressure ionization (API) with electrospray ionization in negative mode (ESP-) in a Quadrupole Ion Trap mass spectrometer was used to perform the characterization of the herbicides of interest. The application of Laser Ablation-ICP-MS methodology in the analysis of soils and sediments is reported in this study. The analytical performance of the method was evaluated on certified standards and real soil and sediment samples. Residential soils were analyzed to evaluate feasibility of using the powerful technique as a routine and rapid method to monitor potential contaminated sites. Forty eight sediments were also collected from semi pristine areas in South Florida to conduct screening of baseline levels of bioavailable elements in support of risk evaluation. The LA-ICP-MS data were used to perform a statistical evaluation of the elemental composition as a tool for environmental forensics. A LA-ICP-MS protocol was also developed and optimized for the elemental analysis of a wide range of elements in polymeric filters containing atmospheric dust. A quantitative strategy based on internal and external standards allowed for a rapid determination of airborne trace elements in filters containing both contemporary African dust and local dust emissions. These distributions were used to qualitative and quantitative assess differences of composition and to establish provenance and fluxes to protected regional ecosystems such as coral reefs and national parks.

(Table 1) Sample characteristics, test consolidations and calculated elastic parameters of ODP Sites 194-1193 and 194-1196

This study is based on rock mechanical tests of samples from platform carbonate strata to document their petrophysical properties and determine their potential for porosity loss by mechanical compaction. Sixteen core-plug samples, including eleven limestones and five dolostones, from Miocene carbonate platforms on the Marion Plateau, offshore northeast Australia, were tested at vertical effective stress, sigma1', of 0-70 MPa, as lateral strain was kept equal to zero. The samples were deposited as bioclastic facies in platform-top settings having paleo-water depths of <10-90 m. They were variably cemented with low-Mg calcite and five of the samples were dolomitized before burial to present depths of 39-635 m below sea floor with porosities of 8-46%. Ten samples tested under dry conditions had up to 0.22% strain at sigma1' = 50 MPa, whereas six samples tested saturated with brine, under drained conditions, had up to 0.33% strain. The yield strength was reached in five of the plugs. The measured strains show an overall positive correlation with porosity. Vp ranges from 3640 to 5660 m/s and Vs from 1840 to 3530 m/s. Poisson coefficient is 0.20-0.33 and Young's modulus at 30 MPa ranged between 5 and 40 GPa. Water saturated samples had lower shear moduli and slightly higher P- to S-wave velocity ratios. Creep at constant stress was observed only in samples affected by pore collapse, indicating propagation of microcracks. Although deposited as loose carbonate sand and mud, the studied carbonates acquired reef-like petrophysical properties by early calcite and dolomite cementation. The small strains observed experimentally at 50 MPa indicate that little mechanical compaction would occur at deeper burial. However, as these rocks are unlikely to preserve their present high porosities to 4-5 km depth, further porosity loss would proceed mainly by chemical compaction and cementation.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and skeletal development, size, weight, total lipid and symbiont density of coral Favia fragum in a laboratory experiment

Ocean acidification (OA) threatens the existence of coral reefs by slowing the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production of framework-building corals thus reducing the amount of CaCO3 the reef can produce to counteract natural dissolution. Some evidence exists to suggest that elevated levels of dissolved inorganic nutrients can reduce the impact of OA on coral calcification. Here, we investigated the potential for enhanced energetic status of juvenile corals, achieved via heterotrophic feeding, to modulate the negative impact of OA on calcification. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, were collected and reared for 3 weeks under ambient (421 µatm) or significantly elevated (1,311 µatm) CO2 conditions. The metamorphosed, zooxanthellate spat were either fed brine shrimp (i.e., received nutrition from photosynthesis plus heterotrophy) or not fed (i.e., primarily autotrophic). Regardless of CO2 condition, the skeletons of fed corals exhibited accelerated development of septal cycles and were larger than those of unfed corals. At each CO2 level, fed corals accreted more CaCO3 than unfed corals, and fed corals reared under 1,311 µatm CO2 accreted as much CaCO3 as unfed corals reared under ambient CO2. However, feeding did not alter the sensitivity of calcification to increased CO2; Delta calcification/Delta Omega was comparable for fed and unfed corals. Our results suggest that calcification rates of nutritionally replete juvenile corals will decline as OA intensifies over the course of this century. Critically, however, such corals could maintain higher rates of skeletal growth and CaCO3 production under OA than those in nutritionally limited environments.

Distribuição e uso de habitat por peixes recifais em um gradiente ambiental: estudo de caso em recifes areníticos

There are several abiotic factors reported in the literature as regulators of the distribution of fish species in marine environments. Among them stand out structural complexity of habitat, benthic composition, depth and distance from the coast are usually reported as positive influencers in the diversity of difentes species, including reef fish. These are dominant elements in reef systems and considered high ecological and socioeconomic importance. Understanding how the above factors influence the distribution and habitat use of reef fish communities are important for their management and conservation. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the influence of these variables on the community of reef fishes along an environmental gradient of depth and distance from shore base in sandstone reefs in the coast of state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. These variables are also used for creating a simple predictive model reef fish biomass for the environment studied. Data collection was performed through visual surveys in situ, and recorded environmental data (structural complexity of habitat, type of coverage of the substrate, benthic invertebrates) and ecological (wealth, abundance and reef fish size classes). As a complement, information on the diet were raised through literature and the biomass was estimated from the length-weight relationship of each species. Overall, the reefs showed a low coverage by corals and the Shallow reefs, Intermediate I and II dominated by algae and the Funds by algae and sponges. The complexity has increased along the gradient and positively influenced the species richness and abundance. Both attributes influenced in the structure of the reef fish community, increasing the richness, abundance and biomass of fish as well as differentiating the trophic structure of the community along the depth gradient and distance from the coast. Distribution and use of habitat by recifas fish was associated with food availability. The predictor model identified depth, roughness and coverage for foliose algae, calcareous algae and soft corals as the most significant variables influencing in the biomass of reef fish. In short, the description and understanding of these patterns are important steps to elucidate the ecological processes. In this sense, our approach provides a new understanding of the structure of the reef fish community of Rio Grande do Norte, allowing understand a part of a whole and assist future monitoring actions, evaluation, management and conservation of these and other reefs of Brazil.

Organic carbon sources and their transfer in a gulf of Mexico coral reef ecosystem

Coral reefs face unprecedented threats throughout most of their range. Poorly planned coastal development has contributed increased nutrients and sewage contamination to coastal waters, smothering some corals and contributing to overgrowth by macroalgae. My approach to assessing the degree to which coral reef ecosystems have been influenced by terrestrial and anthropogenic organic carbon inputs is through the use of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stable isotopes and lipid biomarkers in a marine protected area, the Coral Reef System of Veracruz: Parque Nacional Sistema Arrecifal Veracruzano (PNSAV) in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Firstly, I used a C and N stable isotope mixing model and a calculated fatty acid (FA) retention factor to reveal the primary producer sources that fuel the coral reef food web. Secondly, I used lipid classes, FA and sterol biomarkers to determine production of terrestrial and marine biogenic material of nutritional quality to pelagic and benthic organisms. Finally, I used coprostanol to determine pollutant loading from sewage in the suspended particulate matter. Results indicate that phytoplankton is the major source of essential metabolite FA for marine fish and that dietary energy from terrestrial sources such as mangroves are transferred to juvenile fish, while seagrass non-essential FA are transferred to the entire food web mainly in the rainy season. Sea urchins may be the main consumers of brown macroalgae, especially in the dry season, while surgeon fish prefer red algae in both dry and rainy seasons. C and N isotopic values and the ratio C:N suggest that fertilizer is the principal source of nitrogen to macroalgae. Thus nitrogen supply also favored phytoplankton and seagrass growth leading to a better nutritional condition and high retention of organic carbon in the food web members during the rainy season when river influence increases. However, the great star coral Montastrea cavernosa nutritional condition decreased significantly in the rainy season. The nearest river to the PNSAV was polluted in the dry season; however, a dilution effect was detected in the rainy season, when some coral reefs were contaminated. In 2013, a new treatment plant started working in the area. I would suggest monitoring δ¹⁵N and the C: N ratio in macroalgae as indicators of the nitrogen input and coprostanol as an indicator of human feces pollution in order to verify the efficiency of the new treatment plant as part of the management program of the PNSAV.

Coral reef habitat maps derived from a high-spatial-resolution multi-spectral satellite image using object based image analysis

Coral reef maps at various spatial scales and extents are needed for mapping, monitoring, modelling, and management of these environments. High spatial resolution satellite imagery, pixel <10 m, integrated with field survey data and processed with various mapping approaches, can provide these maps. These approaches have been accurately applied to single reefs (10-100 km**2), covering one high spatial resolution scene from which a single thematic layer (e.g. benthic community) is mapped. This article demonstrates how a hierarchical mapping approach can be applied to coral reefs from individual reef to reef-system scales (10-1000 km**2) using object-based image classification of high spatial resolution images guided by ecological and geomorphological principles. The approach is demonstrated for three individual reefs (10-35 km**2) in Australia, Fiji, and Palau; and for three complex reef systems (300-600 km**2) one in the Solomon Islands and two in Fiji. Archived high spatial resolution images were pre-processed and mosaics were created for the reef systems. Georeferenced benthic photo transect surveys were used to acquire cover information. Field and image data were integrated using an object-based image analysis approach that resulted in a hierarchically structured classification. Objects were assigned class labels based on the dominant benthic cover type, or location-relevant ecological and geomorphological principles, or a combination thereof. This generated a hierarchical sequence of reef maps with an increasing complexity in benthic thematic information that included: 'reef', 'reef type', 'geomorphic zone', and 'benthic community'. The overall accuracy of the 'geomorphic zone' classification for each of the six study sites was 76-82% using 6-10 mapping categories. For 'benthic community' classification, the overall accuracy was 52-75% with individual reefs having 14-17 categories and reef systems 20-30 categories. We show that an object-based classification of high spatial resolution imagery, guided by field data and ecological and geomorphological principles, can produce consistent, accurate benthic maps at four hierarchical spatial scales for coral reefs of various sizes and complexities.

(Table 1) Physical oceanography during Lance cruise LA99/2 in the marginal ice zone of the Barents Sea

Zooplankton was studied on eight stations in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the Barents Sea, in May 1999, along two transects across the ice edge. On each station, physical background measurements and zooplankton samples were taken every 6 h over a 24 h period at five discrete depth intervals. Cluster analysis revealed separation of open water stations from all ice stations as well as high similarity level among replicates belonging to particular station. Based on five replicates per station, analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed significant differences (P < 0.05) in abundances of the main mesozooplankton taxa among stations. Relations between the zooplankton community and environmental parameters were established using redundancy analysis (CANOCO). In total, 55% of mesozooplankton variability within studied area was explained by eight variables with significant conditional effects: depth stratum, fluorescence, temperature, salinity, bottom depth, latitude, bloom situation, and ice concentration. GLM models supported supposition about clear and negative relationship between concentration of Oithona similis, and overall mesozooplankton diversity The analyses showed a dynamic relationship between mesozooplankton distribution and hydrological conditions on short-term scale. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that variability in the physical environment of dynamic MIZ of the Barents Sea has measurable effect on the Arctic pelagic ecosystem.

Carbonate preservation of sediment cores from the Great Bahama Bank

The oceanic carbon cycle mainly comprises the production and dissolution/ preservation of carbonate particles in the water column or within the sediment. Carbon dioxide is one of the major controlling factors for the production and dissolution of carbonate. There is a steady exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in order to achieve an equilibrium of CO2; an anthropogenic rise of CO2 in the atmosphere would therefore also increase the amount of CO2 in the ocean. The increased amount of CO2 in the ocean, due to increasing CO2-emissions into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, has been interpreted as "ocean acidification" (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003). Its alarming effects, such as dissolution and reduced CaCO3 formation, on reefs and other carbonate shell producing organisms form the topic of current discussions (Kolbert, 2006). Decreasing temperatures and increasing pressure and CO2 enhance the dissolution of carbonate particles at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea. Moreover, dissolution processes are dependent of the saturation state of the surrounding water with respect to calcite or aragonite. Significantly increased dissolution has been observed below the aragonite or calcite chemical lysocline; below the aragonite compensation depth (ACD), or calcite compensation depth (CCD), all aragonite or calcite particles, respectively, are dissolved. Aragonite, which is more prone to dissolution than calcite, features a shallower lysocline and compensation depth than calcite. In the 1980's it was suggested that significant dissolution also occurs in the water column or at the sediment-water interface above the lysocline. Unknown quantities of carbonate produced at the sea surface, would be dissolved due to this process. This would affect the calculation of the carbonate production and the entire carbonate budget of the world's ocean. Following this assumption, a number of studies have been carried out to monitor supralysoclinal dissolution at various locations: at Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic (Martin and Sayles, 1996), in the Arabian Sea (Milliman et al., 1999), in the equatorial Indian Ocean (Peterson and Prell, 1985; Schulte and Bard, 2003), and in the equatorial Pacific (Kimoto et al., 2003). Despite the evidence for supralysoclinal dissolution in some areas of the world's ocean, the question still exists whether dissolution occurs above the lysocline in the entire ocean. The first part of this thesis seeks answers to this question, based on the global budget model of Milliman et al. (1999). As study area the Bahamas and Florida Straits are most suitable because of the high production of carbonate, and because there the depth of the lysocline is the deepest worldwide. To monitor the occurrence of supralysoclinal dissolution, the preservation of aragonitic pteropod shells was determined, using the Limacina inflata Dissolution Index (LDX; Gerhardt and Henrich, 2001). Analyses of the grain-size distribution, the mineralogy, and the foraminifera assemblage revealed further aspects concerning the preservation state of the sediment. All samples located at the Bahamian platform are well preserved. In contrast, the samples from the Florida Straits show dissolution in 800 to 1000 m and below 1500 m water depth. Degradation of organic material and the subsequent release of CO2 probably causes supralysoclinal dissolution. A northward extension of the corrosive Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows through the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico and might enhance dissolution processes at around 1000 m water depth. The second part of this study deals with the preservation of Pliocene to Holocene carbonate sediments from both the windward and leeward basins adjacent to Great Bahama Bank (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 632, 633, and 1006). Detailed census counts of the sand fraction (250-500 µm) show the general composition of the coarse grained sediment. Further methods used to examine the preservation state of carbonates include the amount of organic carbon and various dissolution indices, such as the LDX and the Fragmentation Index. Carbonate concretions (nodules) have been observed in the sand fraction. They are similar to the concretions or aggregates previously mentioned by Mullins et al. (1980a) and Droxler et al. (1988a), respectively. Nonetheless, a detailed study of such grains has not been made to date, although they form an important part of periplatform sediments. Stable isotopemeasurements of the nodules' matrix confirm previous suggestions that the nodules have formed in situ as a result of early diagenetic processes (Mullins et al., 1980a). The two cores, which are located in Exuma Sound (Sites 632 and 633), at the eastern margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB), show an increasing amount of nodules with increasing core depth. In Pliocene sediments, the amount of nodules might rise up to 100%. In contrast, nodules only occur within glacial stages in the deeper part of the studied core interval (between 30 and 70 mbsf) at Site 1006 on the western margin of GBB. Above this level the sediment is constantly being flushed by bottom water, that might also contain corrosive AAIW, which would hinder cementation. Fine carbonate particles (<63 µm) form the matrix of the nodules and do therefore not contribute to the fine fraction. At the same time, the amount of the coarse fraction (>63 µm) increases due to the nodule formation. The formation of nodules might therefore significantly alter the grain-size distribution of the sediment. A direct comparison of the amount of nodules with the grain-size distribution shows that core intervals with high amounts of nodules are indeed coarser than the intervals with low amounts of nodules. On the other hand, an initially coarser sediment might facilitate the formation of nodules, as a high porosity and permeability enhances early diagenetic processes (Westphal et al., 1999). This suggestion was also confirmed: the glacial intervals at Site 1006 are interpreted to have already been rather coarse prior to the formation of nodules. This assumption is based on the grain-size distribution in the upper part of the core, which is not yet affected by diagenesis, but also shows coarser sediment during the glacial stages. As expected, the coarser, glacial deposits in the lower part of the core show the highest amounts of nodules. The same effect was observed at Site 632, where turbidites cause distinct coarse layers and reveal higher amounts of nodules than non-turbiditic sequences. Site 633 shows a different pattern: both the amount of nodules and the coarseness of the sediment steadily increase with increasing core depth. Based on these sedimentological findings, the following model has been developed: a grain-size pattern characterised by prominent coarse peaks (as observed at Sites 632 and 1006) is barely altered. The greatest coarsening effect due to the nodule formation will occur in those layers, which have initially been coarser than the adjacent sediment intervals. In this case, the overall trend of the grain-size pattern before and after formation of the nodules is similar to each other. Although the sediment is altered due to diagenetic processes, grain size could be used as a proxy for e.g. changes in the bottom-water current. The other case described in the model is based on a consistent initial grain-size distribution, as observed at Site 633. In this case, the nodule reflects the increasing diagenetic alteration with increasing core depth rather than the initial grain-size pattern. In the latter scenario, the overall grain-size trend is significantly changed which makes grain size unreliable as a proxy for any palaeoenvironmental changes. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of general sedimentation processes in the periplatform realm: the preservation state of surface samples shows the influence of supralysoclinal dissolution due to the degradation of organic matter and due to the presence of corrosive water masses; the composition of the sand fraction shows the alteration of the carbonate sediment due to early diagenetic processes. However, open questions are how and when the alteration processes occur and how geochemical parameters, such as the rise in alkalinity or the amount of strontium, are linked to them. These geochemical parameters might reveal more information about the depth in the sediment column, where dissolution and cementation processes occur.

Geochemical and biogeochemical parameters of Black Sea waters and suspended matter

The monograph focuses on the analysis of data addressing the problem of H2S contamination and oxic-anoxic interface in the Black Sea. Regularities of the fine structure of vertical distribution of oxygen, hydrogen sulfide, biogenic elements, organic substances, suspended matter, and metals of the iron-manganese group in the area of contact of aerobic and anaerobic waters have been revealed. Also effects of biochemical, physico-chemical and dynamic processes on their vertical distribution have been examined. Sulfate reduction in seawater and bottom sediments has been studied. Quantitative estimates of H2S fluxes at the water - bottom sediment and O2-H2S interfaces have been done. Features of H2S oxidation have been studied, its budget in the Black Sea has been calculated. Multiyear spatial-temporal variability of the oxic-anoxic interface has been investigated.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Effects of vermicomposted spent mushroom compost on growing medium characteristics, plant growth, yield and abiotic stress tolerance

Treatment of agricultural biodegradable wastes and by-products can be carried out using composting or vermicomposting, or a combination of both treatment methods, to create a growing medium amendment suitable for horticultural use. When compared to traditional compost-maturation, vermicompost-maturation resulted in a more mature growing medium amendment i.e. lower C/N and pH, with increased nutrient content and improved plant growth response, increasing lettuce shoot fresh and dry weight by an average of 15% and 14%, respectively. Vermicomposted horse manure compost was used as a growing medium amendment for lettuce and was found to significantly increase lettuce shoot and root growth, and chlorophyll content. When used as a growing medium amendment for tomato fruit production, vermicomposted spent mushroom compost increased shoot growth and marketable yield, and reduced blossom end rot in two independent studies. Vermicompost addition to peat-based growing media increased marketable yield by an average of 21%. Vermicompost also improved tomato fruit quality parameters such as acidity and sweetness. Fruit sweetness, as measured using Brix value, was significantly increased in fruits grown with 10% or 20% vermicompost addition by 0.2 in truss one and 0.3 in truss two. Fruit acidity (% citric acid) was significantly increased in plants grown with vermicompost by an average of 0.65% in truss one and 0.68% in truss two. These changes in fruit chemical parameters resulted in a higher tomato fruit overall acceptability rating as determined by a consumer acceptance panel. When incorporated into soil, vermicomposted spent mushroom compost increased plant growth and reduced plant stress under conditions of cold stress, but not salinity or heat stress. The addition of 20% vermicompost to cold-stressed plants increased plant growth by an average of 30% and increased chlorophyll fluorescence by an average of 21%. Compared to peat-based growing medium, vermicompost had consistently higher nutrient content, pH, electrical conductivity and bulk density, and when added to a peat-based growing medium, vermicomposted spent mushroom compost altered the microbial community. Vermicompost amendment increased the microbial activity of the growing medium when incorporated initially, and this increased microbial activity was observed for up to four months after incorporation when plants were grown in it. Vermicomposting was shown to be a suitable treatment method for agricultural biodegradable wastes and by-products, with the resulting vermicompost having suitable physical, chemical and biological properties, and resulting in increased plant growth, marketable yield and yield quality, when used as an amendment in peat-based growing medium.

Retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters using multitemporal optical and radar satellite data

The amount and quality of available biomass is a key factor for the sustainable livestock industry and agricultural management related decision making. Globally 31.5% of land cover is grassland while 80% of Ireland’s agricultural land is grassland. In Ireland, grasslands are intensively managed and provide the cheapest feed source for animals. This dissertation presents a detailed state of the art review of satellite remote sensing of grasslands, and the potential application of optical (Moderate–resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and radar (TerraSAR-X) time series imagery to estimate the grassland biomass at two study sites (Moorepark and Grange) in the Republic of Ireland using both statistical and state of the art machine learning algorithms. High quality weather data available from the on-site weather station was also used to calculate the Growing Degree Days (GDD) for Grange to determine the impact of ancillary data on biomass estimation. In situ and satellite data covering 12 years for the Moorepark and 6 years for the Grange study sites were used to predict grassland biomass using multiple linear regression, Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) models. The results demonstrate that a dense (8-day composite) MODIS image time series, along with high quality in situ data, can be used to retrieve grassland biomass with high performance (R2 = 0:86; p < 0:05, RMSE = 11.07 for Moorepark). The model for Grange was modified to evaluate the synergistic use of vegetation indices derived from remote sensing time series and accumulated GDD information. As GDD is strongly linked to the plant development, or phonological stage, an improvement in biomass estimation would be expected. It was observed that using the ANFIS model the biomass estimation accuracy increased from R2 = 0:76 (p < 0:05) to R2 = 0:81 (p < 0:05) and the root mean square error was reduced by 2.72%. The work on the application of optical remote sensing was further developed using a TerraSAR-X Staring Spotlight mode time series over the Moorepark study site to explore the extent to which very high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of interferometrically coherent paddocks can be exploited to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters. After filtering out the non-coherent plots it is demonstrated that interferometric coherence can be used to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters (i. e., height, biomass), and that it is possible to detect changes due to the grass growth, and grazing and mowing events, when the temporal baseline is short (11 days). However, it not possible to automatically uniquely identify the cause of these changes based only on the SAR backscatter and coherence, due to the ambiguity caused by tall grass laid down due to the wind. Overall, the work presented in this dissertation has demonstrated the potential of dense remote sensing and weather data time series to predict grassland biomass using machine-learning algorithms, where high quality ground data were used for training. At present a major limitation for national scale biomass retrieval is the lack of spatial and temporal ground samples, which can be partially resolved by minor modifications in the existing PastureBaseIreland database by adding the location and extent ofeach grassland paddock in the database. As far as remote sensing data requirements are concerned, MODIS is useful for large scale evaluation but due to its coarse resolution it is not possible to detect the variations within the fields and between the fields at the farm scale. However, this issue will be resolved in terms of spatial resolution by the Sentinel-2 mission, and when both satellites (Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B) are operational the revisit time will reduce to 5 days, which together with Landsat-8, should enable sufficient cloud-free data for operational biomass estimation at a national scale. The Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) approach is feasible if there are enough coherent interferometric pairs available, however this is difficult to achieve due to the temporal decorrelation of the signal. For repeat-pass InSAR over a vegetated area even an 11 days temporal baseline is too large. In order to achieve better coherence a very high resolution is required at the cost of spatial coverage, which limits its scope for use in an operational context at a national scale. Future InSAR missions with pair acquisition in Tandem mode will minimize the temporal decorrelation over vegetation areas for more focused studies. The proposed approach complements the current paradigm of Big Data in Earth Observation, and illustrates the feasibility of integrating data from multiple sources. In future, this framework can be used to build an operational decision support system for retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters based on data from long term planned optical missions (e. g., Landsat, Sentinel) that will ensure the continuity of data acquisition. Similarly, Spanish X-band PAZ and TerraSAR-X2 missions will ensure the continuity of TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed.