Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Chemical treatment of papaya seeds aiming at long-term storage and control of damping off

Damping off is a nursery disease of great economic importance in papaya and seed treatment may be an effective measure to control. The aim of this work was to evaluate the quality of papaya seeds treated with fungicides and stored under two environmental and packaging conditions. Additionally, the efficiency of fungicide treatments in the control of damping-off caused by Rhizoctonia solani was evaluated. Papaya seeds were treated with the fungicides Captan, Tolylfluanid and the mixture Tolylfluanid + Captan (all commercial wettable powder formulations). Seeds of the control group were not treated. The seeds were stored for nine months in two conditions: packed in aluminum coated paper and kept at 7 ± 1ºC and in permeable kraft paper and kept in non-controlled environment. At the beginning of the storage and every three months the seed quality (germination and vigor tests), emergence rate index, height, dry mass and damping of plants in pre and post-emergence (in contaminated substrate and mycelia-free substrate) were analyzed. Both storage conditions as well as the fungicide treatments preserved the germination and seed vigor. In the infested substrate, seedling emergence was favored by fungicides, but in post-emergence, fungicides alone did not control the damping off caused by R. solani. Symptoms of damping off were not observed in the clean substrate. The results showed that the fungicide treatments may be used to pretreat papaya seed for long-term storage and commercialization.

Automation & control remote laboratory: evaluating a cooperative methodology

This paper presents a study carried out in order to evaluate the students' perception in the development and use of remote Control and Automation education kits developed by two Universities. Three projects, based on real world environments, were implemented, being local and remotely operated. Students implemented the kits using the theoretical and practical knowledge, being the teachers a catalyst in the learning process. When kits were operational, end-user students got acquainted to the kits in the course curricula units. It is the author's believe that successful results were achieved not only in the learning progress on the Automation and Control fields (hard skills) but also on the development of the students soft skills, leading to encouraging and rewarding goals, motivating their future decisions and promoting synergies in their work. The design of learning experimental kits by students, under teacher supervision, for future use in course curricula by enduser students is an advantageous and rewarding experience.

Silicon in plant disease control

All essential nutrients can affect the incidence and severity of plant diseases. Although silicon (Si) is not considered as an essential nutrient for plants, it stands out for its potential to decrease disease intensity in many crops. The mechanism of Si action in plant resistance is still unclear. Si deposition in plant cell walls raised the hypothesis of a possible physical barrier to pathogen penetration. However, the increased activity of phenolic compounds, polyphenol oxidases and peroxidases in plants treated with Si demonstrates the involvement of this element in the induction of plant defense responses. The studies examined in this review address the role of Si in disease control and the possible mechanisms involved in the mode of Si action in disease resistance in plants.

Postharvest biological control of brown rot in peaches after cold storage preceded by preharvest chemical control 1

ABSTRACT Pathogenic fungi cause skin darkening and peach quality depreciation in post harvest. Therefore, alternative techniques to chemical treatment are necessary in order to reduce risks to human health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the application of Trichoderma harzianum in association with different fungicides applied before harvest to 'Eldorado' peaches for brown rot control and other quality parameters during storage. The treatments consisted of five preharvest fungicide applications (control, captan, iprodione, iminoctadine and tebuconazole) associated with postharvest application of T. harzianum, after cold storage (with and without application), in three evaluation times (zero, two and four days at 20 °C), resulting in a 5x2x3 factorial design. The application of T. harzianum only brought benefits to the control of brown rot when combined with the fungicide captan, at zero day shelf life. After two days, there was a greater skin darkening in peaches treated with T. harzianum compared with peaches without the treatment, except for peaches treated with the fungicide iprodione and T. harzianum The application of T. harzianum during postharvest showed no benefits for the control of brown rot, however, the association with fungicides reduced the incidence of Rhizopus stolonifer during the shelf life.

Locus de Control y Ira

La ira se ha relacionado con atribuciones externas en distintos modelos atribucionales, sin embargo, desde los planteamientos de la teoría del “locus de control” (Rotter, 1966) la respuesta emocional de ira no ha sido objeto de estudio con la frecuencia que sería deseable (aunque sí la conducta agresiva). El presente trabajo explora las relaciones del locus de control externo con la emoción de ira, así como con la expresión y control de la misma. Para ello se utilizó una muestra de 177 estudiantes universitarios (27 hombres y 150 mujeres) a los que se evaluó mediante los instrumentos siguientes: Escala de Rotter (Rotter, 1966, versión española de Pérez García, 1984); el Inventario de Expresión de Ira Estado/Rasgo -STAXI-de Spielberger (1988, 1991), versión española de Spielberger, Miguel-Tobal, Cano-Vindel y Casado, 1992); y el Inventario de Control, Defensa y Expresión de Emociones -CDE-(Cano Vindel y Miguel Tobal, 1996). Se realizó un análisis correlacional entre las distintas escalas de los instrumentos y diferencias de medias para dos grupos extremos (altos y bajos) en locus de control (equiparados en la variable sexo). Nuestros resultados muestran una relación positiva y significativa entre el locus de control externo y la respuesta emocional de ira, así como una tendencia a expresar externamente la ira y a controlarla menos en sujetos con atribuciones de causalidad externas. Conocer los procesos atribucionales asociados a la ira y a su afrontamiento permitirá una intervención más eficaz sobre la misma.

¿Entes de regulación o control? Imprecisiones del "moderno" esquema de regulación: reflexiones y enseñanzas del caso argentino

Este artículo analiza las particularidades del "moderno" esquema de regulación de los servicios públicos de infraestructura, que se extendió a partir de los procesos de privatización del último cuarto del siglo XX. Diferenciándose de la arquitectura institucional vigente durante el período de prestación estatal (regulación "endógena"), los entes reguladores emergen como el elemento neurálgico de este nuevo esquema. Sin embargo, como se desprende de la experiencia argentina, estos organismos han sido dotados de ambiguas atribuciones regulatorias e inapropiados diseños institucionales, quedando trunca su capacidad real de regulación. A raíz de la difusa delimitación de misiones y funciones e - incluso - frente a las imprecisiones teóricas en la materia, este artículo precisa el alcance de la intervención de los distintos actores del sistema de prestación y regulación: empresas prestadoras, entes reguladores, poderes del Estado (Ejecutivo y Legislativo) y usuarios y consumidores. En este sentido, trabaja sobre los diseños institucionales más apropiados para que los entes desarrollen efectivas capacidades de regulación. El análisis se ejemplifica a partir de la experiencia privatizadora argentina - nacional y subnacional - en los servicios de agua potable y saneamiento y distribución de electricidad.

Predictors of Successful Weight Control: Cross-Cultural Moderators of Treatment Outcomes

Given the heterogeneity of effect sizes within the population for any treatment, identifying moderators of outcomes is critical [1]. In weight management programs, there is a high individual variability in terms of weight loss and an overall modest success [2]. Some people will adopt and sustain attitudes and behaviors associated with weight loss, while others won’t [3]. To predict weight loss outcome just from the subject’s baseline information would be very valuable [4,5]. It would allow to: - Better match between treatments and individuals - Identify the participants with less probability of success (or potential dropouts) in a given treatment and direct them to alternative therapies - Target limited resources to those most likely to succeed - Increase cost-effectiveness and improve success rates of the programs Few studies have been dedicated to describe baseline predictors of treatment success. The Healthy Weight for Life (USA) study is one of the few. Its findings are now being cross-validated in Portuguese samples. This paper describes these cross-cultural comparisons.

Estresse e desordem temporomandibular (DTM) : incidência e relação em docentes de nível

RESUMO: O trabalho docente exige dedicação em sala de aula e fora dela, pois o professor vê-se na missão de educador, formador de opiniões e de futuros profissionais no mercado de trabalho. Uma das patologias que pode ocorrer devido ao estresse gerado pela docência é o desenvolvimento de Desordens Temporomandibulares, que acarretará cefaleias, dores musculares na região cervical e facial e alterações posturais. Tivemos a pretensão de conduzir nossas reflexões sobre o estresse do docente para procurar responder às nossas inquietações. Para isso, formulamos o seguinte questionamento: qual a incidência e a relação entre o estresse e o desenvolvimento de Desordens Temporomandibulares no docente de nível superior? O objetivo geral desta investigação foi descrever e analisar a relação entre o estresse e a incidência de Desordem Temporomandibular (DTM) em docentes de nível superior da cidade de Palmas – Tocantins – Brasil. Para contemplar o objetivo geral, buscamos verificar a presença ou não de estresse e os principais sintomas de estresse nos docentes de Ensino Superior, identificando a fase do estresse em que os professores se encontravam e verificar a presença ou não de DTM e seus graus. Procuramos, ainda, avaliar a relação entre sexo e presença de estresse, estado civil e presença de estresse, o tempo de docência e a presença de estresse e a relação entre a carga horária em sala de aula e a carga horária total de trabalho e a presença de estresse, entre sexo e presença de DTM, estado civil e presença de DTM, o tempo de docência e a presença de DTM e a relação entre a carga horária em sala de aula e carga horária total de trabalho e a presença de DTM. A metodologia utilizada, para a realização deste trabalho, foi de caráter exploratório e descritivo com uma abordagem quantitativa dos dados obtidos. A pesquisa caracterizou-se num estudo de campo, fundamentada em um instrumento denominado “Inventário de Sintomas de Stress Lipp – ISSL” da autora Marilda Lipp (2005), versão para adulto, ao qual acrescentamos dados sociodemográficos (estado civil, tempo de docência, carga horária de sala de aula e de trabalho total). Recorremos, ainda, ao Questionário Índice de Helkimo para identificar a ocorrência de DTMs. A coleta dos dados foi realizada a partir de uma amostra de duzentos e trinta e três (233) docentes de Ensino Superior, com idade entre 23 e 74 anos. Com base na análise realizada, os resultados revelaram que a presença de sintomas de estresse se encontra em 106 (45,49%) docentes, com predomínio da fase de resistência. Verificamos que 127 (54,5%) docentes não apresentam estresse. A sintomatologia predominante são sintomas psicológicos. Vimos que o tempo de docência e a jornada de trabalho não contribuem como um valor preditivo da presença de estresse, bem como o estado civil, e verificamos que o sexo feminino apresentou mais sintomas de estresse. Ao analisarmos a presença ou não de DTM, vimos que os docentes apresentam sintomas de DTM em sua maioria, encontrada em 187 docentes (80,25%), com predomínio do grau de DTM leve. Vimos que o tempo de docência e a jornada de trabalho não contribuem como um valor significativo para a presença de DTM, mas que o sexo feminino apresentou mais sintomas de DTM, bem como os casados. Buscando responder ao problema norteador desta 6 investigação, vimos que, mesmo nos docentes sem presença de estresse, havia sintomas de DTM. Esses dados indicam que a profissão docente pode causar sobrecargas e gerar a DTM. Diante dessa amostra de docentes pesquisados, concluímos que os dados aqui apresentados sugerem uma ampliação do estudo. Considerando a relevância do papel desempenhado pelos docentes das Instituições de Ensino Superior na formação dos acadêmicos e em sua efetiva transformação em futuros profissionais, nossa contribuição para o conhecimento do processo de estresse e os graus de DTM na atividade docente proporcionará oportunidade aos profissionais das diversas áreas do conhecimento e, principalmente, aos docentes para despertarem para a elaboração de programas de combate, controle e prevenção do estresse e do desenvolvimento de DTMs, resultando, dessa forma, na conquista de uma vida mais saudável, tanto na área física quanto na área psicológica. ABSTRACT: Abstract The teacher’s job requires dedication in and out of the classroom for a teacher is in a education mission, he/she is an opinion maker and responsible for future professionals in the market. One of the pathologies that may take place due to the stress caused by this job is the Temporomandibular Joint Disorder (TMD) that will trigger cephaleas, muscle pain in the cervical and facial area and posture changes. The purpose of this paper is to conduct reflections about teachers’ stress trying to answer the following question: What is the incidence rate and correlation between stress and the occurrence of Temporomandibular Joint Disorder (DTM) in teachers of institutions of higher learning in the city of Palmas – Tocantis – Brazil. To fulfill the general purpose we tried to verify the presence or not of stress and the principal symptoms in teachers in universities and colleges, identifying the levels of stress that they were, and verifying the presence or not of TMD and its levels. We tried to evaluate the correlation between gender and the occurrence of stress, marital status and the presence of stress, career time and the presence of stress, and time working in classroom and the total time of work and the presence of stress. The methodology used to perform this was an exploratory and descriptive study with a quantitative approach of the data gathered. The research was characterized by a field study, fundamented by a tool called “Lipp Stress Symptom Inventory – ISSL” from the author Marilda Lipp (2005), adult version, which we also added social-demographic data (marital status, time teaching, hours working in the classroom, and total time of work). We also used the Helkimo Index Questionnaire to identify the occurrence of TMD’s. The data was collected from a sample of two hundred three (233) teachers of universities and colleges between 23 to 74 years of age. Based on the analysis performed, the results showed the presence of stress among 106 (45.49%) of the teachers, with the predominance of the resistance level. We observed that some 127 teachers (54.5%) did not show stress. The predominant symptomology were psychological ones. We observed that time of experience and the schedule do not influence as a predictive value for the stress presence, neither does the marital status and we also observed that the female gender showed more stress symptoms. When we analyzed the presence or not of TMD, we observed that most of the teachers showed symptoms of TMD, some 187 teachers (80.25%), with the predominance of first level TMD. We observed that the time as teacher and the schedule do not influence with an important value for the TMD presence, however the feminine gender as well as married teachers showed more symptoms of TMD. Trying to answer the most important issue of this study, we saw that even without the occurrence of stress the TMD was present showing that the profession can cause overwork and consequently TMD. With this sample of teachers studied we conclude that the found data suggest a wider research. Considering the role performed by teachers of universities and colleges in the development of students and future professionals, our contribution for the understanding of the stress development and TMD levels in the teaching activity will enable the opportunity for professionals of different areas of knowledge, and 8 principally for teachers, to awaken to the need to develop programs to fight, control, and prevent stress and the development of TMD, therefore resulting in a healthier life, both a physical as well as a psychological one.

Accountability and co-production of information and control: social observatories and their relationship with government agencies

Abstract:Through the development of a proposal to categorize accountability into four stages - classical, cross-sectional, systemic, and diffused -, this article aims to identify characteristics of co-production of information and socio-political control of public administration in the work of Brazilian social observatories in relationship with government control agencies. The study analyses data from 20 social observatories and, particularly, three experiences of co-production of information and control, based on a systemic perspective on accountability and a model with four categories: Political and cultural; valuing; systemic-organizational, and production. The conclusions summarize characteristics of these practices, specific phases in the accountability processes, as well as the potentialities and challenges of co-production of information and control, which not only influences, but it is also influenced by the accountability system.

Chagas' disease and social security: a case-control study in an urban area, Goiás, Brazil

One hundred and twenty subjects with Chagas' cardiopathy and 120 non-infected subjects were randomly selected from first time claimants of sickness benefits in the National Institute of Social Security (INPS) in Goiás. Cases of Chagas' cardiopathy were defined based on serological test, history of residence in an endemic area and, clinical and/or electrocardiogram (ECG) alterations suggestive of Chagas' cardiomyopathy. Controls were defined as subjects with at least two negative serological tests. Case and controls were compared in the analysis for age, sex, place of birth, migration history, socio-economic level, occupation, physical exertion at work, age at affiliation and years of contribution to the social security scheme, clinical course of their disease and ECG abnormalities. Chagas' disease patients were younger than other subjects and predominantly of rural origin. Non-infected subjects presented a better socio-economic level, were performing more skilled activities and had less changes of job than cases. No important difference was observed in relation to age at affiliation to INPS. About 60% of cases have claimed for benefits within the first four years of contribution while among controls this proportion was 38.5%. Cases were involved, proportionally more than controls, in "heavy" activities. A risk of 2.3 (95%CL 1.5 - 4.6) and 1.8 (95%CL 1.2- 3.5) was obtained comparing respectively "heavy" and "moderate" physical activity against "light". A relative risk of 8.5 (95%CL 4.9 - 14.8) associated with the presence of cardiopathy was estimated comparing the initial sample of seropositive subjects and controls. A high relative risk was observed in relation to right bundle branch block (RR = 37.1 95%CL = 8.8 - 155.6) and left anterior hemiblock (RR = 4.4, 95%CL = 2.1 - 9.1).