Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Imitation of succesful behavior in Cournot markets

In an experimental standard Cournot Oligopoly we test the importance ofmodels of behavior characterized by imitation of succesful behavior. Wefind that the players appear to the rather reluctant to imitate.

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

Dual-energy CT behavior of heroin, cocaine, and typical adulterants.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dual-energy CT behavior of cocaine and heroin and of typical adulterants, and to evaluate the elemental composition of pure cocaine and heroin compared with cocaine and heroin in bodypacks. METHODS: Pure heroin and pure synthetic cocaine samples, eight different adulterants, and in each case ten different bodypacks containing cocaine or heroin, were imaged at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kVp in a dual source CT system at two different degrees of compression. Two radiologists, blinded to the samples, measured the attenuation. The dual-energy index (DEI) was calculated. We performed atomic mass spectrometry for the elemental analysis of pure cocaine, pure heroin, and heroin and cocaine in bodypacks, and 140 kVp in a dual-source CT system. RESULTS: Inter- and intra-observer agreement for attenuation measurements was good (r = 0.61-0.72; p < 0.01). The cocaine bodypacks had a positive DEI of 0.029, while the pure drugs and the heroin bodypacks had a negative DEI (-0.051 to -0.027). Levamisole was the only substance which expressed a positive DEI of 0.011, while the remaining adulterants had negative DEIs ranging between -0.015 and -0.215. Atomic mass spectrometry revealed a concentration of tin in the cocaine bodypack that was 67 times higher than in the pure synthetic cocaine sample. CONCLUSIONS: The different DEIs of bodypacks containing cocaine and heroin allow them to be distinguished with dual-energy CT. Although the material properties of pure cocaine, pure heroin, or common drug extenders do not explain the differences in DEI, tin contamination during illicit natural cocaine production may be a possible explanation.

A theory of reference-dependent behavior

Extensive field and experimental evidence in a variety of environments show that behavior depends on a reference point. This paper provides an axiomatic characterization of this dependence. We proceed by imposing gradually more structure on both choice correspondences and preference relations, requiring increasingly higher levels of rationality, and freeing the decision-maker from certain types of inconsistencies. The appropriate degree of behavioral structure will depend on the phenomenon that is to be modeled. Lastly, we provide two applications of our work: one to model the status-quo bias, and another to model addictive behavior.

Effects of sex, host-plant deprivation and presence of conspecific immatures on the cannibalistic behavior of wild Ascia monuste orseis (Godart) (Lepidoptera, Pieridae)

Effects of sex, host-plant deprivation and presence of conspecific immatures on the cannibalistic behavior of wild Ascia monuste orseis (Godart) (Lepidoptera, Pieridae). The specialist cabbage caterpillar Ascia monuste orseis (Lepidoptera, Pieridae) feeds on plants of the Brassicaceae family, but may eventually ingest conspecific eggs and larvae during the larval stage. The present study examines feeding behavior of 4th and 5th instar cabbage caterpillars in relation to sex, host-plant deprivation and presence of conspecifics. We recorded number of egg ingested per larvae, developmental indices and duration of feeding, exploratory and resting behavior. Kale deprived caterpillars presented high rates of cannibalism, development delay and decreased fecundity. Cannibalism rates were not influenced by the sex of the larvae. In general, the presence of conspecific eggs did not interfere with the frequency and duration of the categorical behavioral events. We conclude that food availability is a strong factor influencing the extent to which A. monuste orseis caterpillars cannibalize.

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be neither a difussion, nor a Markov process as the examples in section 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus.

First record of the behavior of latex drainage by Trigona spinipes (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera, Apidae) in laticiferous flowers

This paper describes the behavior of the bee Trigona spinipes, to avoid the latex, when piercing the base of the tubular corolla of the flowers of Mandevilla guanabarica in order to steal the nectar.

Parasitizing behavior of Cervellus piranga Penteado-Dias (Hymenoptera, Braconidae, Braconinae) on papaya borer weevil Pseudopiazurus obesus Marshall (Coleoptera, Curculionidae)

Parasitizing behavior of Cervellus piranga Penteado-Dias (Hymenoptera, Braconidae, Braconinae) on papaya borer weevil Pseudopiazurus obesus Marshall (Coleoptera, Curculionidae). The papaya borer weevil Pseudopiazurus obesus is a pest associated with papaya crops in Brazil and Cervellus piranga is a naturally-occurring parasitoid which may contribute to regulate populations of this pest. We aimed at describing the parasitizing behavior of the parasitoid C. piranga on papaya borer weevil P. obesus larvae under field conditions. The sequence of events related to the parasitizing behavior of C. piranga is similar to other braconid species and includes the location and recognition of the attacked host plant followed by walks on the host plant and touching it with the tip of the antennae and the ovipositor. In the following event, the parasitoid assesses the suitability of the host by speeding up antennae and ovipositor movements. After locating and accepting the host, the parasitoid remains inactive on oviposition aperture sites and starts moving the antennae. Afterwards, the parasitoid inserts its ovipositor and starts cleaning it repeatedly. The female of C. piranga inserts the ovipositor through the hole and lay one egg into the papaya weevil borer. After oviposition, the female cleans continuously both ovipositor and antennae before leaving to forage for a new host.

Ethical differentiation and market behavior: An experimental approach

Does ethical differentiation of products affect market behavior? We examined this issue in triopolistic experimental markets where producers set prices. One producer s costs were higher than the others. In two treatments, the additional costs were attributed tocompliance with ethical guidelines. In the third, no justification was provided. Manyparticipants playing the role of consumers reduced their experimental gains by purchasing the ethically differentiated product at a higher price whether or not they knew the amount of extra cost. Individual differences were important (students of business/economics paid smaller premia than others). Finally, we speculate about the observed demand function for ethics and emphasize the use of experimental methodology to complement empirical studies designed to assess the potential market for ethically differentiated products.

Effect of Citrus floral extracts on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis (Dalla Torre)

Effect of Citrus floral extracts on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis (Dalla Torre). Stingless bees have an important role as pollinators of many wild and cultivated plant species in tropical regions. Little is known, however, about the interaction between floral fragrances and the foraging behavior of meliponine species. Thus we investigated the chemical composition of the extracts of citric (lemon and orange) flowers and their effects on the foraging behavior of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona pectoralis. We found that each type of flower has its own specific blend of major compounds: limonene (62.9%) for lemon flowers, and farnesol (26.5%), (E)-nerolidol (20.8%), and linalool (12.7%) for orange flowers. In the foraging experiments the S. pectoralis workers were able to use the flower extracts to orient to the food source, overlooking plates baited with hexane only. However, orange flower extracts were seemingly more attractive to these worker bees, maybe because of the particular blend present in it. Our results reveal that these fragrances are very attractive to S. pectoralis, so we can infer that within citric orchards they could be important visitors in the study area; however habitat destruction, overuse of pesticides and the competitive override by managed honeybees might have put at risk their populations and thus the ecological services they provide to us.

Adverse events to antiretrovirals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: effect on mortality and treatment modification.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.