A New Index of Financial Conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

Sharp Bounds on Heterogeneous Individual Treatment Responses

This paper discusses how to identify individual-specific causal effects of an ordered discrete endogenous variable. The counterfactual heterogeneous causal information is recovered by identifying the partial differences of a structural relation. The proposed refutable nonparametric local restrictions exploit the fact that the pattern of endogeneity may vary across the level of the unobserved variable. The restrictions adopted in this paper impose a sense of order to an unordered binary endogeneous variable. This allows for a uni.ed structural approach to studying various treatment effects when self-selection on unobservables is present. The usefulness of the identi.cation results is illustrated using the data on the Vietnam-era veterans. The empirical findings reveal that when other observable characteristics are identical, military service had positive impacts for individuals with low (unobservable) earnings potential, while it had negative impacts for those with high earnings potential. This heterogeneity would not be detected by average effects which would underestimate the actual effects because different signs would be cancelled out. This partial identification result can be used to test homogeneity in response. When homogeneity is rejected, many parameters based on averages may deliver misleading information.

Efficient Nash Equilibrium under Adverse Selection

This paper revisits the problem of adverse selection in the insurance market of Rothschild and Stiglitz [28]. We propose a simple extension of the game-theoretic structure in Hellwig [14] under which Nash-type strategic interaction between the informed customers and the uninformed firms results always in a particular separating equilibrium. The equilibrium allocation is unique and Pareto-efficient in the interim sense subject to incentive-compatibility and individual rationality. In fact, it is the unique neutral optimum in the sense of Myerson [22].

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

Measuring intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain: a selection-bias-free approach

This paper analyses intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain correcting for different selection biases. We address the co-residence selection problem by combining information from two samples and using the two-sample two-stage least square estimator. We find a small decrease in elasticity when we move to younger cohorts. Furthermore, we find a higher correlation in the case of daughters than in the case of sons; however, when we consider the employment selection in the case of daughters, by adopting a Heckman-type correction method, the diference between sons and daughters disappears. By decomposing the sources of earnings elasticity across generations, we find that the correlation between child's and father's occupation is the most important component. Finally, quantile regressions estimates show that the influence of the father's earnings is greater when we move to the lower tail of the offspring's earnings distribution, especially in the case of daughters' earnings.

Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

Unionisation, International Integration and Selection

We study how unionisation affects competitive selection between heterogeneous firms when wage negotiations can occur at the firm or at the profit-centre level. With productivity specific wages, an increase in union power has: (i) a selection-softening; (ii) a counter-competitive; (iii) a wage-inequality; and (iv) a variety effect. In a two-country asymmetric setting, stronger unions soften competition for domestic firms and toughen it for exporters. With profit-centre bargaining, we show how trade liberalisation can affect wage inequality among identical workers both across firms (via its effects on competitive selection) and within firms (via wage discrimination across destination markets).

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity applied at the wage equation of European married women

This paper utilizes a panel data sample selection model to correct the selection in the analysis of longitudinal labor market data for married women in European countries. We estimate the female wage equation in a framework of unbalanced panel data models with sample selection. The wage equations of females have several potential sources of.

Aging and motor programming: differential effects according to the selection of action

There are controversial reports about the effect of aging on movement preparation, and it is unclear to which extent cognitive and/or motor related cerebral processes may be affected. This study examines the age effects on electro-cortical oscillatory patterns during various motor programming tasks, in order to assess potential differences according to the mode of action selection. Twenty elderly (EP, 60-84 years) and 20 young (YP, 20-29 years) participants with normal cognition underwent 3 pre-cued response tasks (S1-S2 paradigm). S1 carried either complete information on response side (Full; stimulus-driven motor preparation), no information (None; general motor alertness), or required free response side selection (Free; internally-driven motor preparation). Electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded using 64 surface electrodes. Alpha (8-12 Hz) desynchronization (ERD)/synchronization (ERS) and motor-related amplitude asymmetries (MRAA) were analyzed during the S1-S2 interval. Reaction times (RTs) to S2 were slower in EP than YP, and in None than in the other 2 tasks. There was an Age x Task interaction due to increased RTs in Free compared to Full in EP only. Central bilateral and midline activation (alpha ERD) was smaller in EP than YP in None. In Full just before S2, readiness to move was reflected by posterior midline inhibition (alpha ERS) in both groups. In Free, such inhibition was present only in YP. Moreover, MRAA showed motor activity lateralization in both groups in Full, but only in YP in Free. The results indicate reduced recruitment of motor regions for motor alertness in the elderly. They further show less efficient cerebral processes subtending free selection of movement in elders, suggesting reduced capacity for internally-driven action with age.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Eumelanin-based coloration and fitness parameters in birds: a meta-analysis

Although melanin is the most common pigment in animal integuments, the adaptive function of variation in melanin-based coloration remains poorly understood. The individual fitness returns associated with melanin pigments can be variable across species as these pigments can have physical and biological protective properties and genes involved in melanogenesis may vary in the intensity of pleiotropic effects. Moreover, dark and pale coloration can also enhance camouflage in alternative habitats and melanin-based coloration can be involved in social interactions. We investigated whether darker or paler individuals achieve a higher fitness in birds, a taxon wherein associations between melanin-based coloration and fitness parameters have been studied in a large number of species. A meta-analysis showed that the degree of melanin-based coloration was not significantly associated with laying date, clutch size, brood size, and survival across 26 species. Similar results were found when restricting the analyses to non-sexually dimorphic birds, colour polymorphic and monomorphic species, in passerines and non-passerines and in species for which inter-individual variation in melanism is due to colour intensity. However, eumelanic coloration was positively associated with clutch and brood size in sexually dimorphic species and those that vary in the size of black patches, respectively. Given that greater extent of melanin-based coloration was positively associated with reproductive parameters and survival in some species but negatively in other species, we conclude that in birds the sign and magnitude of selection exerted on melanin-based coloration is species- or trait-specific.

Inconsistency between different measures of sexual selection.

Measuring the intensity of sexual selection is of fundamental importance to the study of sexual dimorphism, population dynamics, and speciation. Several indices, pools of individuals, and fitness proxies are used in the literature, yet their relative performances are strongly debated. Using 12 independent common lizard populations, we manipulated the adult sex ratio, a potentially important determinant of the intensity of sexual selection at a particular time and place. We investigated differences in the intensity of sexual selection, as estimated using three standard indices of sexual selection-the standardized selection gradient (β'), the opportunity of selection (I), and the Bateman gradient (βss)--calculated for different pools of individuals and different fitness proxies. We show that results based on estimates of I were the opposite of those derived from the other indices, whereas results based on estimates of β' were consistent with predictions derived from knowledge about the species' mating system. In addition, our estimates of the strength and direction of sexual selection depended on both the fitness proxy used and the pool of individuals included in the analysis. These observations demonstrate inconsistencies in distinct measures of sexual selection and underscore the need for caution when comparing studies and species.