948 resultados para Bayes credible intervals


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There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective To evaluate cardiac electrical function in the Spectacled Flying Fox (bat) infested with Ixodes holocyclus. Design Prospective clinical investigation of bats treated for naturally occurring tick toxicity. Procedure ECGs were performed on bats with tick toxicity (n = 33), bats that recovered slowly (n = 5) and normally (n = 5) following treatment for tick toxicity, and on normal bats with no history of tick toxicity (n = 9). Results Bats with tick toxicity had significantly prolonged corrected QT intervals, bradycardia and rhythm disturbances which included sinus bradydysrhythmia, atrial standstill, ventricular premature complexes, and idioventricular bradydysrhythmia. Conclusions The QT prolongation observed on ECG traces of bats with tick toxicity reflected delayed ventricular repolarisation and predisposed to polymorphic ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death in response to sympathetic stimulation. The inability to document ventricular tachycardia in bats shortly before death from tick toxicity may be explained by a lack of sympathetic responsiveness attributable to the unique parasympathetic innervation of the bat heart, or hypothermiainduced catecholamine receptor down-regulation. Bradycardia and rhythm disturbances may be attributable to hypothermia.

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The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two high-intensity, treadmill interval-training programs on 3000-m and 5000-m running performance. Maximal oxygen uptake ((V) over dot O-2max), the running speed associated with (V) over dot O-2max (nu (V) over dot O-2max), the time for which nu (V) over dot O-2max can be maintained (T-max), running economy (RE), ventilatory threshold (VT) and 3000-m and 5000-m running times were determined in 27 well-trained runners. Subjects were then randomly assigned to three groups; (1) 60% T-max (2) 70% T-max and (3) control. Subjects in the control group continued their normal training and subjects in the two T-max groups undertook a 4-week treadmill interval-training program with the intensity set at nu (V) over dot O-2max and the interval duration at the assigned T-max. These subjects completed two interval-training sessions per week (60% T-max = six intervals/session, 70% T-max group = five intervals/session). Subjects were re-tested on all parameters at the completion of the training program. There was a significant improvement between pre- and post-training values in 3000-m time trial (TT) performance in the 60% T-max group compared to the 70% T,,a, and control groups [mean (SE); 60% T-max = 17.6 (3.5) s, 70% T-max = 6.3 (4.2) s, control = 0.5 (7.7) s]. There was no significant effect of the training program on 5000-m TT performance [60% T-max = 25.8 (13.8) s, 70% T-max = 3.7 (11.6) s, control = 9.9 (13.1) s]. Although there were no significant improvements in (V) over dot O-2max, nu (V) over dot (2max) and RE between groups, changes in (V) over dot O-2max and RE were significantly correlated with the improvement in the 3000-m TT. Furthermore, VT and T-max were significantly higher in the 60% Tmax group post-compared to pre-training. In conclusion, 3000-m running performance can be significantly improved in a group of well-trained runners, using a 4-week treadmill interval training program at nu (V) over dot O-2max with interval durations of 60% T-max.

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Increased professionalism in rugby has elicited rapid changes in the fitness profile of elite players. Recent research, focusing on the physiological and anthropometrical characteristics of rugby players, and the demands of competition are reviewed. The paucity of research on contemporary elite rugby players is highlighted, along with the need for standardised testing protocols. Recent data reinforce the pronounced differences in the anthropometric and physical characteristics of the forwards and backs. Forwards are typically heavier, taller, and have a greater proportion of body fat than backs. These characteristics are changing, with forwards developing greater total mass and higher muscularity. The forwards demonstrate superior absolute aerobic and anaerobic power, and Muscular strength. Results favour the backs when body mass is taken into account. The scaling of results to body mass can be problematic and future investigations should present results using power function ratios. Recommended tests for elite players include body mass and skinfolds, vertical jump, speed, and the multi-stage shuttle run. Repeat sprint testing is a possible avenue for more specific evaluation of players. During competition, high-intensity efforts are often followed by periods of incomplete recovery. The total work over the duration of a game is lower in the backs compared with the forwards; forwards spend greater time in physical contact with the opposition while the backs spend more time in free running, allowing them to cover greater distances. The intense efforts undertaken by rugby players place considerable stress on anaerobic energy sources, while the aerobic system provides energy during repeated efforts and for recovery. Training should focus on repeated brief high-intensity efforts with short rest intervals to condition players to the demands of the game. Training for the forwards should emphasise the higher work rates of the game, while extended rest periods can be provided to the backs. Players should not only be prepared for the demands of competition, but also the stress of travel and extreme environmental conditions. The greater professionalism of rugby union has increased scientific research in the sport; however, there is scope for significant refinement of investigations on the physiological demands of the game, and sports-specific testing procedures.

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The present study aimed to 1) examine the relationship between laboratory-based measures and high-intensity ultraendurance (HIU) performance during an intermittent 24-h relay ultraendurance mountain bike race (similar to20 min cycling, similar to60min recovery), and 2) examine physiological and performance based changes throughout the HIU event. Prior to the HIU event, four highly-trained male cyclists (age = 24.0 +/- 2.1 yr; mass = 75.0 +/- 2.7 kg; (V)over dot O-2peak = 70 +/- 3 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)) performed 1) a progressive exercise test to determine peak Volume of oxygen uptake ((V)over dot O-2peak), peak power output (PPO), and ventilatory threshold (T-vent), 2) time-to-fatigue tests at 100% (TF100) and 150% of PPO (TF150), and 3) a laboratory simulated 40-km time trial (TT40). Blood lactate (Lac(-)), haematocrit and haemoglobin were measured at 6-h intervals throughout the HIU event, while heart rate (HR) was recorded continuously. Intermittent HIU performance, performance HR, recovery HR, and Lac declined (P < 0.05), while plasma volume expanded (P < 0.05) during the HIU event. TF100 was related to the decline in lap time (r = -0.96; P < 0.05), and a trend (P = 0.081) was found between TF150 and average intermittent HIU speed (r = 0.92). However, other measures (V)over dot O-2peak, PPO, T-vent, and TT40) were not related to HIU performance. Measures of high-intensity endurance performance (TF100, TF150) were better predictors of intermittent HIU performance than traditional laboratory-based measures of aerobic capacity.

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For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

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As survival of patients with CF increases,glucose intolerance and cystic fibrosisrelated diabetes (CFRD),ar e increasingly recognised common complications. CFRD may be preceded by a pre-diabetic state. Using markers identified as being associated with CFRD may improve targeted screening. Aim: To identify features consistently predicting CFRD in paediatric patients. Patients diagnosed with CFRD between January 1997–January 2002 were compared with age and sex matched controls. Clinical,micr obiological, and hospitalisation data was collected at time of CFRD diagnosis,and at six monthly intervals for 3 yr prior to diagnosis. Eight patients with CFRD were identified,mean age 13.7 yr (S.D. 3.49) at time of diagnosis. Control patients underwent OGTT to ensure normal glucose tolerance. Patients with CFRD had a lower FEV1 up to 12 months prior to diagnosis however, this was only significant at diagnosis. There was no difference in weight and height z scores between the 2 groups; however,the decrease in weight and height z scores in the CFRD group over 3 yr prior to diagnosis was significant. Mean number of days in hospital and admissions per patient significantly increased in the CFRD group,6 months prior to diagnosis. No other significant differences were observed between the 2 groups. Conclusions: This study has shown a difference in lung function,gr owth parameters and frequency of hospital admissions between patients with CFRD and controls. These differences may be utilised as tools for targeted screening in the paediatricyadolescent population. Further larger scale studies are required to improve guidelines for targeted screening in this population.

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Changes in composition during the maturation of Western Schley pecans [Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) K. Koch] grown in Australia were investigated. Pecans of different maturity levels were collected at monthly intervals between March and June in. 1999 and 2000 and analyzed for the concentrations of moisture, total lipid, sucrose, raffinose, protein, and the minerals aluminum, boron, calcium, copper, iron, potassium, magnesium, manganese, sodium, phosphorus, sulfur, and zinc. Moisture, total lipid, and calcium contents changed significantly (p < 0.05) with harvest time and maturity, whereas the other components did not. Western Schley pecans grown in Australia should be harvested after the shuck has opened and it is either green or brown in color to maximize total lipid content and quality. This occurred after May 11 in 1999 and after May 17 in 2000.

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In 2003 The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education celebrates its 30th anniversary. Beginning in 1973 as The Aboriginal Child at School, the journal was a practical response to a recommendation made at the National Workshop on Aboriginal Education held in May 1971 “that a periodical publication be commenced to provide a medium for the exchange of ideas and developments in the teaching of Aborigines, for the examination of practical implications of research findings and for the recording of Aboriginal achievements” (Watts, 1973, p. 2). Funded by the Department of Aboriginal Affairs in Canberra and housed in the Department of Education and later the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies Unit at the University of Queensland, The Aboriginal Child at School was published at two monthly intervals. It aimed to provide a medium whereby teachers in the field of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander education could share their thinking and their strategies for successful teaching and thereby enter into a meaningful and productive dialogue with one another (Watts, 1973, p. 2). An overarching concern of the journal was to improve and optimise children’s development and the types of pedagogies employed to provide challenging and rewarding learning experiences for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children.The journal was enthusiastically embraced by a broad range of professionals and proved to be a useful resource for both experienced and beginning teachers, particularly in the primary sector.

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We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Trabalho apresentado no XXXI Congresso Brasileiro de Ciência do Solo (2007 : Gramado, RS)

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O soro de leite é um subproduto da fabricação do queijo, seja por acidificação ou por processo enzimático. Em condições ideais, a caseína do leite se agrega formando um gel, que posteriormente cortado, induz a separação e liberação do soro. É utilizado de diversas formas em toda a indústria alimentícia, possui rica composição em lactose, sais minerais e proteínas. A desidratação é um dos principais processos utilizados para beneficiamento e transformação do soro. Diante disto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a influência dos métodos de secagem: liofilização, leito de espuma (nas temperaturas de 40, 50, 60, 70 e 80ºC) e spray-dryer (nas temperaturas de 55, 60, 65, 70 e 75ºC), sobre as características de umidade, proteína, cor e solubilidade do soro, bem como estudar o seu processo de secagem. O soro foi obtido e desidratado após concentração por osmose reversa, testando 11 tratamentos, em 3 repetições, utilizando um delineamento inteiramente casualizado. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo matemático que melhor se ajustou foi o modelo de Page, apresentado um coeficiente de determinação ajustado acima de 0,98 e erro padrão da regressão em todas as temperaturas abaixo de 0,04 para o método por leito de espuma. Para o método de liofilização os respectivos valores foram 0,9975 e 0,01612. A partir disso, pode-se elaborar um modelo matemático generalizado, apresentando um coeficiente de determinação igual a 0,9888. No caso do leito de espuma, observou-se que à medida que se aumenta a temperatura do ar de secagem, o tempo de secagem diminui e os valores do coeficiente de difusão efetiva aumentam. Porém, a redução no tempo de secagem entre os intervalos de temperatura, diminui com o aumento da mesma. A energia de ativação para a difusão no processo de secagem do soro foi de 26,650 kJ/mol e para todas as avaliações físico-químicas e tecnológicas, a análise de variância apresentou um valor de F significativo (p<0,05), indicando que há pelo menos um contraste entre as médias dos tratamentos que é significativo.

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The use of cover crops is important for the agricultural crop and soil management in order to improve the system and, consequently, to increase yield. Therefore, the present study analyzed the effect of crop residues of black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) (BO) and a cocktail (CO) of BO, forage turnip (Raphanus sativus L.) (FT) and common vetch (Vicia sativa L.) (V) on the emergence speed index (ESI), seedling emergence speed (SES) plant height and soybean yield in different intervals between cover crop desiccation with glyphosate 480 (3 L ha-1) and BRS 232 cultivar sowing. Plots of 5 x 2.5 m with 1 m of border received four treatments with BO cover crops and four with CO as well as a control for each cover crop, at random, with five replications. The plots were desiccated in intervals of 1, 10, 20 and 30 days before soybean seeding. The harvest was manual while yield was adjusted to 13% of moisture content. The experimental design was completely randomized with splitplots and means compared by the Scott and Knott test at 5% of significance. The results showed that CO of cover crops can be recommended for soybean to obtain a more vigorous seedling emergence, from 10 days after cover crop desiccation.

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This paper investigates realism in character computer animation, which triggered the development of new techniques and aesthetic in spectacular cinema and contemporary culture. With the advent of motion or performing capture, animation has made possible that virtual characters or digital creatures reach higher levels in emotional acting, taking place in virtual cinematic worlds or even special effects movies. This technology, when placed at the service of imagination and fantasy can provide new dimensions in character motion and communication. In this context, projects like Peter Jackson’s (2001) The Lord of the Rings, James Cameron’s Avatar (2009) and more recently Steven Spielberg’s Tintin (2011) demonstrate that motion technology is constantly evolving, and it represents a credible option to explore new techniques and aesthetic in contemporary animation.

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Há países que introduziram o voto obrigatório. É uma hipótese. Outra mais credível seria fazer uma profunda reforma do sistema político europeu e nacional, nomeadamente introduzindo uma quota apreciável de deputados que deveriam ter exclusividade de funções. § Abstract: There are countries that have introduced compulsory voting. It is a hypothesis. Another more credible would make a profound reform of the European and national political system, such as introducing a significant share of deputies should have exclusive functions.