Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Correlations between imatinib pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, adherence, and clinical response in advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST): An emerging role for drug blood level testing?

Imatinib is the standard of care for patients with advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and is also approved for adjuvant treatment in patients at substantial risk of relapse. Studies have shown that maximizing benefit from imatinib depends on long-term administration at recommended doses. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic factors, adherence, and drug-drug interactions can affect exposure to imatinib and impact clinical outcomes. This article reviews the relevance of these factors to imatinib's clinical activity and response in the context of what has been demonstrated in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), and in light of new data correlating imatinib exposure to response in patients with GIST. Because of the wide inter-patient variability in drug exposure with imatinib in both CML and GIST, blood level testing (BLT) may play a role in investigating instances of suboptimal response, unusually severe toxicities, drug-drug interactions, and suspected non-adherence. Published clinical data in CML and in GIST were considered, including data from a PK substudy of the B2222 trial correlating imatinib blood levels with clinical responses in patients with GIST. Imatinib trough plasma levels <1100ng/mL were associated with lower rates of objective response and faster development of progressive disease in patients with GIST. These findings have been supported by other analyses correlating free imatinib (unbound) levels with response. These results suggest a future application for imatinib BLT in predicting and optimizing therapeutic response. Nevertheless, early estimates of threshold imatinib blood levels must be confirmed prospectively in future studies and elaborated for different patient subgroups.

Pédiatrie. 3. Le score de McIsaac: une aide à l'indication des tests de diagnostic rapide dans tes angines à streptocoques A [Pediatrics. Using the McIsaac score for the indication of rapid diagnostic testing in children with streptococcal pharyngitis].

The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

Testing for local adaptation in brown trout using reciprocal transplants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local adaptation can drive the divergence of populations but identification of the traits under selection remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Reciprocal transplant experiments are ideal tests of local adaptation, yet rarely used for higher vertebrates because of the mobility and potential invasiveness of non-native organisms. Here, we reciprocally transplanted 2500 brown trout (Salmo trutta) embryos from five populations to investigate local adaptation in early life history traits. Embryos were bred in a full-factorial design and raised in natural riverbeds until emergence. Customized egg capsules were used to simulate the natural redd environment and allowed tracking the fate of every individual until retrieval. We predicted that 1) within sites, native populations would outperform non-natives, and 2) across sites, populations would show higher performance at 'home' compared to 'away' sites. RESULTS: There was no evidence for local adaptation but we found large differences in survival and hatching rates between sites, indicative of considerable variation in habitat quality. Survival was generally high across all populations (55% +/- 3%), but ranged from 4% to 89% between sites. Average hatching rate was 25% +/- 3% across populations ranging from 0% to 62% between sites. CONCLUSION: This study provides rare empirical data on variation in early life history traits in a population network of a salmonid, and large-scale breeding and transplantation experiments like ours provide powerful tests for local adaptation. Despite the recently reported genetic and morphological differences between the populations in our study area, local adaptation at the embryo level is small, non-existent, or confined to ecological conditions that our experiment could not capture.

Opportunistic testing for urogenital infection with Chlamydia trachomatis in south-western Switzerland, 2012 : a feasibility study

The feasibility of opportunistic screening of urogenital infections with Chlamydia trachomatis was assessed in a cross-sectional study in 2012, in two cantons of south-western Switzerland: Vaud and Valais. Sexually active persons younger than 30 years, not tested for C. trachomatis in the last three months, were invited for free C. trachomatis testing by PCR in urine or self-applied vaginal swabs. Of 2,461 consenting participants, 1,899 (77%) were women and all but six (0.3%) submitted a sample. Forty-seven per cent of female and 25% of male participants were younger than 20 years. Overall, 134 (5.5%) of 2,455 tested participants had a positive result and were followed up. Seven per cent of all candidates for screening were not invited, 10% of invited candidates were not eligible, 15% of the eligible candidates declined participation, 5% of tested participants testing positive were not treated, 29% of those treated were not retested after six months and 9% of those retested were positive for C. trachomatis. Opportunistic C. trachomatis testing proved technically feasible and acceptable, at least if free of charge. Men and peripheral rural regions were more difficult to reach. Efforts to increase testing and decrease dropout at all stages of the screening procedure are necessary.

Wer gewinnt die Nationalratswahlen 2007 ? : Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von Wahlvorhersagen auf der Basis von kantonalen Parlamentswahlen

Au centre de cette contribution se pose la question de la mesure dans laquelle des résultats issus des élections cantonales peuvent servir d'instrument de pronostic pour les scores électoraux au niveau du Conseil national. L'analyse des résultats des élections tenues au cours des trente dernières années montre que les données cantonales (pondérées avec le nombre d'électeurs potentiels et la participation au vote) prédisent, dans environ neuf cas sur dix, la tendance réelle au niveau national. Si cela se vérifiait encore aux prochaines élections, alors les Verts peuvent s'attendre à des gains importants en termes de nouveaux électeurs et électrices. De même, mais dans une moindre mesure, l'UDC peux compter sur une augmentation de ses votants. Par contre, tant le PRD que le PS seront perdants et le PDC ne s'en sortira pas beaucoup mieux. En ce qui concerne la marge d'erreur de ces pronostics, elle se trouve au-dessous des 1 pourcents dans 73% des cas et pour 91% des cas elle ne dépasse pas les 2 pourcents.

Immunoscintigraphic localization of inflammatory lesions: concept, radiolabelling and in vitro testing of a granulocyte specific antibody.

Current nuclear medicine techniques for the localization of inflammatory processes are based on injection of 111In labelled autologous granulocytes which need to be isolated and radiolabelled in vitro before reinjection. A new technique is presented here that obviates the need for cell isolation by the direct intravenous injection of a granulocyte specific 123I labelled monoclonal antibody. In this publication the basic parameters of the antibody granulocyte interaction are described. Antibody binding does not inhibit vital functions of the granulocytes, such as chemotaxis and superoxide generation. Scatchard analysis of binding data reveals an apparent affinity of the antibody for granulocytes of 6.8 X 10(9) l/mol and approximately 7.1 X 10(4) binding sites per cell. Due to the high specificity of the antibody, the only expected interference is from CEA producing tumors.

Italy's Path to Very Low Fertility : The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.