An Estimate of Nest Loss in Canada Due to Industrial Forestry Operations

Annual loss of nests by industrial (nonwoodlot) forest harvesting in Canada was estimated using two avian point-count data sources: (1) the Boreal Avian Monitoring Project (BAM) dataset for provinces operating in this biome and (2) available data summarized for the major (nonboreal) forest regions of British Columbia. Accounting for uncertainty in the proportion of harvest occurring during the breeding season and in avian nesting densities, our estimate ranges from 616 thousand to 2.09 million nests. Estimates of the impact on numbers of individuals recruited into the adult breeding population were made based on the application of survivorship estimates at various stages of the life cycle. Future improvements to this estimate are expected as better and more extensive avian breeding pair density estimates become available and as provincial forestry statistics become more refined, spatially and temporally. The effect of incidental take due to forestry is not uniform and is disproportionately centered in the southern boreal. Those species whose ranges occur primarily in these regions are most at risk for industrial forestry in general and for incidental take in particular. Refinements to the nest loss estimate for industrial forestry in Canada will be achieved primarily through the provision of more accurate estimates of the area of forest harvested annually during the breeding season stratified by forest type and Bird Conservation Region (BCR). A better understanding of survivorship among life-history stages for forest birds would also allow for better modeling of the effect of nest loss on adult recruitment. Finally, models are needed to project legacy effects of forest harvesting on avian populations that take into account forest succession and accompanying cumulative effects of landscape change.

Effect of human disturbance on long-term habitat use and breeding success of the European Nightjar, Caprimulgus europaeus

Land managers often respond to declining numbers of target species by creating additional areas of habitat. If these habitats are also subject to human disturbance, then their efforts may be wasted. The European Nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus) is a ground-nesting bird that is listed as a species of European Conservation Concern. It appears to be susceptible to human disturbance during the breeding season. We examined habitat use and reproductive success over 10 years in a breeding population on 1335 ha of managed land in Nottinghamshire, England. The study site was divided into a heavily disturbed section and a less disturbed section of equal habitat availability, forming a natural long-term experiment. The site is open to the public, and visitor numbers approximately doubled during the study. We found that overall Nightjar density was significantly lower and there were significantly fewer breeding pairs in the heavily disturbed habitat compared with the less disturbed habitat. However, average breeding success per pair, in terms of eggs and fledglings produced, was not significantly different between the two sections across years. Our findings suggest that human recreational disturbance may drastically alter settlement patterns and nest site selection of arriving females in some migratory ground-nesting species and may reduce the utility of apparently suitable patches of remnant and created habitat. Land managers should bear this in mind when creating new areas of habitat that will also be accessible to the public. Our study also highlights the value of long-term population monitoring, which can detect trends that short-term studies may miss.

Effects of Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatment efforts on associated avifauna and vegetation structure

Conservation efforts over the last 20 years for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) have involved extensive habitat manipulations done predominantly to improve brood rearing habitat for the grouse. However, the effects of Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatments on sympatric avifauna and responses of vegetation to manipulations are rarely measured, and if they are, it is immediately following treatment implementation. This study examined the concept of umbrella species management by retrospectively comparing density and occupancy of eight sagebrush associated songbird species and six measures of vegetation in treated and control sites. Our results suggested that songbird densities and occupancy changed for birds at the extreme ends of their association with sagebrush and varied with fine-scale habitat structure. We found Brewer’s Sparrows (Spizella breweri) decreased in density on treated sites and Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) increased. Occupancy estimation revealed that Brewer’s Sparrows and Green-tailed Towhees (Pipilo chlorurus) occupied significantly fewer treated points whereas Vesper Sparrows occupied significantly more. Vegetation comparisons between treated and control areas found shrub cover to be 26% lower in treated sites. Lower shrub cover in treated areas may explain the differences in occupancy and densities of the species sampled based on known habitat needs. The fine-scale analysis showed a negative relationship to forb height and cover for the Sage Sparrow (Amphispiza belli) indicating, from vegetation measures showing grass and forb cover during a good precipitation year covered significantly more area in the treatment than the control sites, that Sage Sparrows may also not respond favorably to Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat treatments. While the concept of an umbrella species is appealing, evidence from this study suggests that conservation efforts aimed at the Gunnison Sage-Grouse may not be particularly effective for conserving other sagebrush obligate species of concern. This is probably due to Gunnison Sage-Grouse habitat management being focused on the improvement of brood rearing habitat which reduces sagebrush cover and promotes development of understory forbs and grasses.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

A regime-dependent balanced control variable based on potential vorticity

In this paper it is argued that rotational wind is not the best choice of leading control variable for variational data assimilation, and an alternative is suggested and tested. A rotational wind parameter is used in most global variational assimilation systems as a pragmatic way of approximately representing the balanced component of the assimilation increments. In effect, rotational wind is treated as a proxy for potential vorticity, but one that it is potentially not a good choice in flow regimes characterised by small Burger number. This paper reports on an alternative set of control variables which are based around potential vorticity. This gives rise to a new formulation of the background error covariances for the Met Office's variational assimilation system, which leads to flow dependency. It uses similar balance relationships to traditional schemes, but recognises the existence of unbalanced rotational wind which is used with a new anti-balance relationship. The new scheme is described and its performance is evaluated and compared to a traditional scheme using a sample of diagnostics.