The role of the seed bank in recovery of temperate heath and blanket bog following wildfires

Questions - Are the germinable seed banks of upland heath and blanket bog reduced following wildfires? Are some species at particular risk? Do the impacts of wildfires on seed banks differ between heathlands and blanket bog?

Location - Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.

Methods - Vegetation surveys and seed bank sampling were conducted in 2012 at burned and unburned areas within six upland sites where large wildfires had occurred during spring 2011. Differences in seedling abundance, species richness and Jaccard similarity indices between burned and unburned areas were compared using GLMMs. Differences in the community composition were examined using pRDA.

Results - In total, 24 of the 51 species in the vegetation were detected in the germinable seed bank. Species richness and the abundance of seedlings other than Calluna vulgaris were lower in areas where wildfires had occurred. Species composition of both germinable seed banks and vegetation differed between burned and unburned areas within sites; with negative associations between burned areas and some key indicator species including Drosera rotundifolia, Eriophorum vaginatum, Empetrum nigrum, Narthecium ossifragum and Trichophorum germanicum. We did not find any evidence of significant interactions between burning and habitat, suggesting that wildfires had similar impacts on each species regardless of the habitat in which they occurred.

Conclusions - This study differs from other UK studies in that it examines impacts of wildfires at sites that have not been previously intensively managed by burning. In particular, we highlight potential impacts on N. ossifragum and D. rotundifolia, which are key components of the upland flora and, to our knowledge, were not present in previous UK studies.

How the sublime became "now": time, modernity and aesthetics in Lyotard's rewriting of Kant

Writing in the late 1980s, Nancy gives as examples of the "recent fashion for the sublime" not only the theoreticians of Paris, but the artists of Los Angeles, Berlin, Rome, and Tokyo. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the sublime may of course no longer seem quite so "now" as it did back then, whether in North America, Europe, or Japan. Simon Critchley, for one, has suggested that, at least as regards the issue of its conceptual coupling to "postmodernism," the "debate" concerning the sublime "has become rather stale and the discussion has moved on." Nonetheless, if that debate has indeed "moved on"-and thankfully so-it is not without its remainder, particularly in the very contemporary context of a resurgence of interest in explicitly philosophical accounts of art, in the wake of an emergent critique of cultural studies and of the apparent waning of poststructuralism's influence-a resurgence that has led to a certain "return to aesthetics" in recent Continental philosophy and to the work of Kant, Schelling, and the German Romantics. Moreover, as Nancy's precise formulations suggest, the "fashion" [mode] through which the sublime "offers itself"-as "a break within or from aesthetics"-clearly contains a significance that Critchley's more straightforward narration of shifts in theoretical chic cannot encompass. At stake in this would be the relation between the mode of fashion and art's "destiny" within modernity itself, from the late eighteenth century onwards. Such a conception of art's "destiny," as inextricably linked to that of the sublime, is not unique to recent French theory. In a brief passage in Aesthetic Theory, Adorno also suggests that the "sublime, which Kant reserved exclusively for nature, later became the historical constituent of art itself.... [I]n a subtle way, after the fall of formal beauty, the sublime was the only aesthetic idea left to modernism." As such, although the term has its classical origins in Longinus, its historical character for "us," both Nancy and Adorno argue, associates it specifically with the emergence of the modern. As another philosopher states: "It is around this name [of the sublime] that the destiny of classical poetics was hazarded and lost; it is in this name that ... romanticism, in other words, modernity, triumphed."

Cross-Industry Product Diversification and Contagion in Risk and Return: The Case of Bank-Insurance and Insurance-Bank Takeovers

We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.

O impacto da implementação do Basel III no capital dos bancos portugueses

Este trabalho é uma análise dos efeitos da implementação das últimas recomendações do Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) também conhecidas como o Basel III de 2010 que deverão ser faseadamente implementadas desde 1 de Janeiro de 2013 até 1 de Janeiro de 2019, no capital próprio dos bancos Portugueses. Neste trabalho assume-se que os ativos pesados pelo risco de 2012 mantêm-se constantes e o capital terá de ser aumentado segundo as recomendações ano após ano até ao fim de 2018. Com esta análise, pretende-se entender o nível de robustez do capital próprio dos bancos Portugueses e se os mesmos têm capital e reservas suficientes para satisfazer as recomendações de capital mínimo sugeridas pelo BCBS ou caso contrário, se necessitarão de novas injeções de capital ou terão de reduzir a sua atividade económica. O Basel III ainda não foi implementado em Portugal, pois a União Europeia está no processo de desenvolvimento e implementação do Credit Requirement Directive IV (CRD IV) que é uma recomendação que todos os bancos centrais dos países da zona Euro deverão impor aos respetivos bancos. Esta diretiva da União Europeia é baseada totalmente nas recomendações do Basel III e deverá ser implementada em 2014 ou nos anos seguintes. Até agora, os bancos Portugueses seguem um sistema com base no aviso 6/2010 do Banco de Portugal que recomenda o cálculo dos rácios core tier 1, tier 1 e tier 2 usando o método notações internas (IRB) de avaliação da exposição do banco aos riscos de crédito, operacional, etc. e onde os ativos ponderados pelo risco são calculados como 12,5 vezes o valor dos requisitos totais de fundos calculados pelo banco. Este método é baseado nas recomendações do Basel II que serão substituídas pelo Basel III. Dado que um dos principais motivos para a crise económica e financeira que assolou o mundo em 2007 foi a acumulação de alavancagem excessiva e gradual erosão da qualidade da base do capital próprio dos bancos, é importante analisar a posição dos bancos Portugueses, que embora não sejam muito grandes a nível global, controlam a economia do país. Espera-se que com a implementação das recomendações do Basel III não haja no futuro uma repetição dos choques sistémicos de 2007. Os resultados deste estudo usando o método padrão recomendado pelo BCBS mostram que de catorze bancos Portugueses incluídos neste estudo, apenas seis (BES, Montepio, Finantia, BIG, Invest e BIC) conseguem enquadrar nas recomendações mínimas do Basel III até 1-1- 2019 e alguns outros estão marginalmente abaixo dos rácios mínimos (CGD, Itaú e Crédito Agrícola).

A internacionalização do setor bancário português

O processo de globalização, na esfera dos mercados financeiros, exigiu às instituições bancárias opções de investimento estratégico na plataforma internacional. O movimento de implantação dos bancos portugueses no estrangeiro acompanhou esse processo, permitindo a oferta de serviços bancários de captação e financiamento nos principais mercados de destino das exportações e emigração. A presente dissertação tem como objetivo o estudo do processo de internacionalização do setor bancário português centrado na seguinte questão geral de investigação: “Quais os fatores determinantes das variáveis que caraterizam a evolução do setor bancário português no exterior?” O desenvolvimento desta questão é conduzido através da construção de um modelo explicativo dos impactos de um conjunto de determinantes, selecionados a partir da revisão de literatura, sobre os indicadores que traduzem a dinâmica do negócio bancário no exterior. Neste contexto, pretendeu-se obter evidência empírica desses efeitos através de uma metodologia que consiste na estimação de modelos de dados em painel, utilizando uma amostra de seis bancos com relevância ao nível de investimento no mercado externo relativos ao período compreendido entre 2004 e 2014. Os resultados empíricos sugerem a existência de relações estatisticamente significativas entre as variáveis consideradas nos modelos. Foram encontrados indícios que associam consistentemente as variáveis emigração, Investimento Direto Estrangeiro, Produto Interno Bruto em Portugal e nos países de acolhimento, ativo bancário e inflação, com a evolução da atividade bancária no exterior. Adicionalmente, os resultados revelam que o desemprego e o rácio do crédito em relação ao ativo são estatisticamente significativos na sua influência sobre o indicador da rendibilidade dos bancos. Conclui-se que a significância dos fatores selecionados permite explicar o comportamento dos indicadores de negócio no exterior para os bancos estudados e, consequentemente, a validade do modelo de análise proposto. No entanto, não se exclui que outros elementos explicativos não ponderados no estudo tenham igualmente preponderância explicativa no processo de internacionalização do setor bancário.

On project finance and the first road concession in Portugal

In broad sense, Project Financing1 as a mean of financing large scale infrastructural projects worldwide has had a steady growth in popularity for the last 20 years. This growth has been relatively unscathed from most economic cycles. However in the wake of the 2007 systemic Financial Crisis, Project Financing was also in trouble. The liquidity freeze and credit crunch that ensued affected all parties involved. Traditional Lenders, of this type of financial instrument, locked-in long-term contractual obligations, were severely hit with scarcity of funding compounded by rapidly increasing cost of funding. All the while, Banks were “rescued” by the concerted actions of Central Banks and other Multi-Lateral Agencies around the world but at the same time “stressed” by upcoming regulatory effort (Basel Committee). This impact resulted in specific changes to this type of long-term financing. Changes such as Commercial Banks’ increased risk aversion; pricing increase and maturities decrease of credit facilities; enforcement of Market Disruption Event clauses; partial responsibility for project risk by Multilateral Agencies; and adoption of utility-like availability payments in other industrial sectors such as transportation and even social infrastructure. To the extent possible, this report is then divided in three parts. First, it begins with a more instructional part, touching academic literature (theory) and giving the Banks perspective (practice), but mostly as an overview of Project Finance for awareness’ sake. The renowned Harvard Business School professor – Benjamin Esty, states2 that Project Finance is a “relatively unexplored territory for both empirical and theoretical research” which means that academic research efforts are lagging the practice of Project Finance. Second, the report presents a practical case regarding the first Road Concession in Portugal in 1998 ending with the lessons learned 10 years after Financial Close. Lastly, the report concludes with the analysis of the current trends and changes to the industry post Financial Crisis of the late 2000’s. To achieve this I’ll reference relevant papers, books on the subject, online articles and my own experience in the Project Finance Department at a major Portuguese Investment Bank. Regarding the latter, with the signing of a confidentiality agreement, I’m duly omitting sensitive and proprietary bank information.

O crescimento do sector bancário e a concessão de crédito às empresas : o caso de Angola

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

Antiepileptika bei Frauen im gebärfähigen Alter und in der Schwangerschaft : Vergleich der Fachinformationen in Deutschland und der Schweiz mit dem aktuellen Wissensstand [Antiepileptics in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy : Comparison of specialized information with the current state of knowledge in Germany and Switzerland].

BACKGROUND: Healthcare professionals regularly read the summary of product characteristics (SmPC) as one of the various sources of information on the risks of drug use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy. The aim of this article is to present an overview of the teratogenic potential of various antiepileptic drugs and to compare these data with the information provided by the SmPCs. METHODS: A literature search on the teratogenic risks of 19 antiepileptic agents was conducted and the results were compared with the information on the use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy provided by the SmPCs of 38 commercial products available in Switzerland and Germany. RESULTS: The teratogenic risk is discussed in all available SmPCs. Quantification of the risk for birth defects and the numbers of documented pregnancies are mostly missing. Reproductive safety information in SmPCs showed poor concordance with risk levels reported in the literature. Recommendations concerning the need to monitor plasma levels and possibly perform dose adjustments during pregnancy to prevent treatment failure were missing in five Swiss and two German SmPCs. DISCUSSION: The information regarding use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy provided by the SmPCs is heterogeneous and poorly reflects the current state of knowledge. Regular updates of SmPCs are warranted in order for these documents to be of reliable use for health care professionals.

Impact of relative size and language on the attitudes between nations and linguistic groups : The case of Switzerland

This study explores the impact of relative size on the intra- and intergroup attitudes of groups who either share a language or have a different language. For that purpose, we examined international attitudes, comparing a small nation, Switzerland, and two larger nations, Germany and France. We found support for the assumption that large neighbouring nations pose a threat to the smaller nation's identity, especially when they are linguistically similar. Consequently, in line with Tajfel's Social Identity Theory (1978), the smaller nation's inhabitants evaluate those of the larger nation less positively, liking them less and perceiving them to be more arrogant than vice versa. By investigating the special case of the French-speaking and the German-speaking Swiss as linguistic groups within their own nation we were able to demonstrate that these groups seek support with the larger-linguistically-similar nation to defend themselves against the more direct in-country threat to their identity. They acknowledge the similarity with the larger nation, yet keep defending their social identity by expressing a dislike for this perceived similarity.

Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.

A Prudent Central Banker

This paper studies monetary policy in an economy where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around optimal inflation. In particular, positive deviations from the optimum can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative deviations in the policy maker's loss function. It is shown that under asymmetric preferences, uncertainty can induce a prudent behavior on the part of the central banker. Since the prudence motive can be large enough to override the inflation bias, optimal monetary policy could be implemented even in the absence of rules, reputation, or contractual mechanisms. For certain parameter values, a deflationary bias can arise in equilibrium.

Rigidité normale, dévaluation et équilibre général intertemporel

La présente étude analyse les effets dynamiques de la dévaluation du franc CFA, à l’aide d’un modèle monétaire d’équilibre général, intertemporel et multisectoriel. L’accent est particulièrement mis sur les interactions entre dévaluation et accumulation du capital. Dans le modèle, les effets du changement de parité passent par le marché du travail qui se caractérise par l’inertie du salaire nominal. Les résultats montrent que la dévaluation relance l’investissement, avec des effets expansionnistes sur l’activité économique. Le choc monétaire n’a eu qu’un impact limité sur les soldes budgétaire et commercial. Une mesure d’accompagnement telle que la réduction des salaires de la fonction publique améliore ces deux soldes mais déclenche un processus récessif.

Les facteurs declencheurs des crises financieres internationales

Ce rapport s'inscrit dans la problematique soulevée par l'insistance des milieux financiers américains et du Trésor américain à libéraliser et à globaliser les mouvements internationaux de capitaux. Dans cette perspective, il tente de répondre à trois questions, à savoir 1) est-ce que la finance internationale en général et les institutions monétaires et financières nationales et internationales sont sources d'instabilité financière et économique pour les pays? 2) est-il possible d'éviter que les bénéfices découlant de l'accès accru aux marchés internationaux des capitaux soient diminués et même renversés par des crises monétaires et financières internationales et nationales et, comme corollaire, 3) est-ce que le systême actuel des monnaies nationales est dépassé ?

The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

The Dynamic (In)efficiency of Monetary Policy by Committee

This paper develops a model where the value of the monetary policy instrument is selected by a heterogenous committee engaged in a dynamic voting game. Committee members differ in their institutional power and, in certain states of nature, they also differ in their preferred instrument value. Preference heterogeneity and concern for the future interact to generate decisions that are dynamically ineffcient and inertial around the previously-agreed instrument value. This model endogenously generates autocorrelation in the policy variable and provides an explanation for the empirical observation that the nominal interest rate under the central bank’s control is infrequently adjusted.