Modeling the Potential Spread of the Recently Identified Non-Native Panther Grouper (Chromileptes altivelis)in the Atlantic Using a Cellular Automaton Approach

The Indo-pacific panther grouper (Chromileptes altiveli) is a predatory fish species and popular imported aquarium fish in the United States which has been recently documented residing in western Atlantic waters. To date, the most successful marine invasive species in the Atlantic is the lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles), which, as for the panther grouper, is assumed to have been introduced to the wild through aquarium releases. However, unlike lionfish, the panther grouper is not yet thought to have an established breeding population in the Atlantic. Using a proven modeling technique developed to track the lionfish invasion, presented is the first known estimation of the potential spread of panther grouper in the Atlantic. The employed cellular automaton-based computer model examines the life history of the subject species including fecundity, mortality, and reproductive potential and combines this with habitat preferences and physical oceanic parameters to forecast the distribution and periodicity of spread of this potential new invasive species. Simulations were examined for origination points within one degree of capture locations of panther grouper from the United States Geological Survey Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database to eliminate introduction location bias, and two detailed case studies were scrutinized. The model indicates three primary locations where settlement is likely given the inputs and limits of the model; Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach, the Cape Hatteras Tropical Limit/Myrtle Beach South Carolina, and Florida Keys/Ten Thousand Islands locations. Of these locations, Jupiter Florida/Vero Beach has the highest settlement rate in the model and is indicated as the area in which the panther grouper is most likely to become established. This insight is valuable if attempts are to be made to halt this potential marine invasive species

An investigation of survey technologies and modeling techniques for improving deepwater surveys of nonindigenous species in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Nonindigenous species (NIS) are a major threat to marine ecosystems, with possible dramatic effects on biodiversity, biological productivity, habitat structure and fisheries. The Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM) has taken active steps to mitigate the threats of NIS in Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). Of particular concern are the 13 NIS already detected in NWHI and two invasive species found among the main Hawaiian Islands, snowflake coral (Carijoa riseii) and a red alga (Hypnea musciformis). Much of the information regarding NIS in NWHI has been collected or informed by surveys using conventional SCUBA or fishing gear. These technologies have significant drawbacks. SCUBA is generally constrained to depths shallower than 40 m and several NIS of concern have been detected well below this limit (e.g., L. kasmira – 256 m) and fishing gear is highly selective. Consequently, not all habitats or species can be properly represented. Effective management of NIS requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and abundance over their entire range. Surveys which provide this requisite information can be expensive, especially in the marine environment and even more so in deepwater. Technologies which minimize costs, increase the probability of detection and are capable of satisfying multiple objectives simultaneously are desired. This report examines survey technologies, with a focus on towed camera systems (TCSs), and modeling techniques which can increase NIS detection and sampling efficiency in deepwater habitats of NWHI; thus filling a critical data gap in present datasets. A pilot study conducted in 2008 at French Frigate Shoals and Brooks Banks was used to investigate the application of TCSs for surveying NIS in habitats deeper than 40 m. Cost and data quality were assessed. Over 100 hours of video was collected, in which 124 sightings of NIS were made among benthic habitats from 20 to 250 m. Most sightings were of a single cosmopolitan species, Lutjanus kasmira, but Cephalopholis argus, and Lutjanus fulvus, were also detected. The data expand the spatial distributions of observed NIS into deepwater habitats, identify algal plain as an important habitat and complement existing data collected using SCUBA and fishing gear. The technology’s principal drawback was its inability to identify organisms of particular concern, such as Carijoa riseii and Hypnea musciformis due to inadequate camera resolution and inability to thoroughly inspect sites. To solve this issue we recommend incorporating high-resolution cameras into TCSs, or using alternative technologies, such as technical SCUBA diving or remotely operated vehicles, in place of TCSs. We compared several different survey technologies by cost and their ability to detect NIS and these results are summarized in Table 3.

Characterizing Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico: a watershed modeling analysis and monitoring plan

Land-based pollution is commonly identified as a major contributor to the observed deterioration of shallow-water coral reef ecosystem health. Human activity on the coastal landscape often induces nutrient enrichment, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, toxic contamination and other stressors that have degraded the quality of coastal waters. Coral reef ecosystems throughout Puerto Rico, including Jobos Bay, are under threat from coastal land uses such as urban development, industry and agriculture. The objectives of this report were two-fold: 1. To identify potentially harmful land use activities to the benthic habitats of Jobos Bay, and 2. To describe a monitoring plan for Jobos Bay designed to assess the impacts of conservation practices implemented on the watershed. This characterization is a component of the partnership between the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in Jobos Bay. CEAP is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by private landowners participating in USDA programs. The Jobos Bay watershed, located in southeastern Puerto Rico, was selected as the first tropical CEAP Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW). Both USDA and NOAA use their respective expertise in terrestrial and marine environments to model and monitor Jobos Bay resources. This report documents NOAA activities conducted in the first year of the three-year CEAP effort in Jobos Bay. Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of the project and background information on Jobos Bay and its watershed. Chapter 2 implements NOAA’s Summit to Sea approach to summarize the existing resource conditions on the watershed and in the estuary. Summit to Sea uses a GIS-based procedure that links patterns of land use in coastal watersheds to sediment and pollutant loading predictions at the interface between terrestrial and marine environments. The outcome of Summit to Sea analysis is an inventory of coastal land use and predicted pollution threats, consisting of spatial data and descriptive statistics, which allows for better management of coral reef ecosystems. Chapters 3 and 4 describe the monitoring plan to assess the ecological response to conservation practices established by USDA on the watershed. Jobos Bay is the second largest estuary in Puerto Rico, but has more than three times the shoreline of any other estuarine area on the island. It is a natural harbor protected from offshore wind and waves by a series of mangrove islands and the Punta Pozuelo peninsula. The Jobos Bay marine ecosystem includes 48 km² of mangrove, seagrass, coral reef and other habitat types that span both intertidal and subtidal areas. Mapping of Jobos Bay revealed 10 different benthic habitats of varying prevalence, and a large area of unknown bottom type covering 38% of the entire bay. Of the known benthic habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation, primarily seagrass, is the most common bottom type, covering slightly less than 30% of the bay. Mangroves are the dominant shoreline feature, while coral reefs comprise only 4% of the total benthic habitat. However, coral reefs are some of the most productive habitats found in Jobos Bay, and provide important habitat and nursery grounds for fish and invertebrates of commercial and recreational value.

Modeling red sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) growth using six growth functions

The growth of red sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) was modeled by using tag-recapture data from northern California. Red sea urchins (n=211) ranging in test diameter from 7 to 131 mm were examined for changes in size over one year. We used the function Jt+1 = Jt + f(Jt) to model growth, in which Jt is the jaw size (mm) at tagging, and Jt+1 is the jaw size one year later. The function f(Jt), represents one of six deterministic models: logistic dose response, Gaussian, Tanaka, Ricker, Richards, and von Bertalanffy with 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, and 2 minimization parameters, respectively. We found that three measures of goodness of fi t ranked the models similarly, in the order given. The results from these six models indicate that red sea urchins are slow growing animals (mean of 7.2 ±1.3 years to enter the fishery). We show that poor model selection or data from a limited range of urchin sizes (or both) produces erroneous growth parameter estimates and years-to-fishery estimates. Individual variation in growth dominated spatial variation at shallow and deep sites (F=0.246, n=199, P=0.62). We summarize the six models using a composite growth curve of jaw size, J, as a function of time, t: J = A(B – e–Ct) + Dt, in which each model is distinguished by the constants A, B, C, and D. We suggest that this composite model has the flexibility of the other six models and could be broadly applied. Given the robustness of our results regarding the number of years to enter the fishery, this information could be incorporated into future fishery management plans for red sea urchins in northern California.

Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Robust estimation of local genetic ancestry in admixed populations using a nonparametric Bayesian approach.

We present a new haplotype-based approach for inferring local genetic ancestry of individuals in an admixed population. Most existing approaches for local ancestry estimation ignore the latent genetic relatedness between ancestral populations and treat them as independent. In this article, we exploit such information by building an inheritance model that describes both the ancestral populations and the admixed population jointly in a unified framework. Based on an assumption that the common hypothetical founder haplotypes give rise to both the ancestral and the admixed population haplotypes, we employ an infinite hidden Markov model to characterize each ancestral population and further extend it to generate the admixed population. Through an effective utilization of the population structural information under a principled nonparametric Bayesian framework, the resulting model is significantly less sensitive to the choice and the amount of training data for ancestral populations than state-of-the-art algorithms. We also improve the robustness under deviation from common modeling assumptions by incorporating population-specific scale parameters that allow variable recombination rates in different populations. Our method is applicable to an admixed population from an arbitrary number of ancestral populations and also performs competitively in terms of spurious ancestry proportions under a general multiway admixture assumption. We validate the proposed method by simulation under various admixing scenarios and present empirical analysis results from a worldwide-distributed dataset from the Human Genome Diversity Project.

Content Based Integration of Construction Site Images in AEC/FM Model Based Systems

The Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Facilities Management (AEC/FM) industry is rapidly becoming a multidisciplinary, multinational and multi-billion dollar economy, involving large numbers of actors working concurrently at different locations and using heterogeneous software and hardware technologies. Since the beginning of the last decade, a great deal of effort has been spent within the field of construction IT in order to integrate data and information from most computer tools used to carry out engineering projects. For this purpose, a number of integration models have been developed, like web-centric systems and construction project modeling, a useful approach in representing construction projects and integrating data from various civil engineering applications. In the modern, distributed and dynamic construction environment it is important to retrieve and exchange information from different sources and in different data formats in order to improve the processes supported by these systems. Previous research demonstrated that a major hurdle in AEC/FM data integration in such systems is caused by its variety of data types and that a significant part of the data is stored in semi-structured or unstructured formats. Therefore, new integrative approaches are needed to handle non-structured data types like images and text files. This research is focused on the integration of construction site images. These images are a significant part of the construction documentation with thousands stored in site photographs logs of large scale projects. However, locating and identifying such data needed for the important decision making processes is a very hard and time-consuming task, while so far, there are no automated methods for associating them with other related objects. Therefore, automated methods for the integration of construction images are important for construction information management. During this research, processes for retrieval, classification, and integration of construction images in AEC/FM model based systems have been explored. Specifically, a combination of techniques from the areas of image and video processing, computer vision, information retrieval, statistics and content-based image and video retrieval have been deployed in order to develop a methodology for the retrieval of related construction site image data from components of a project model. This method has been tested on available construction site images from a variety of sources like past and current building construction and transportation projects and is able to automatically classify, store, integrate and retrieve image data files in inter-organizational systems so as to allow their usage in project management related tasks.

Modeling natural sounds with modulation cascade processes

Natural sounds are structured on many time-scales. A typical segment of speech, for example, contains features that span four orders of magnitude: Sentences ($\sim1$s); phonemes ($\sim10$−$1$ s); glottal pulses ($\sim 10$−$2$s); and formants ($\sim 10$−$3$s). The auditory system uses information from each of these time-scales to solve complicated tasks such as auditory scene analysis [1]. One route toward understanding how auditory processing accomplishes this analysis is to build neuroscience-inspired algorithms which solve similar tasks and to compare the properties of these algorithms with properties of auditory processing. There is however a discord: Current machine-audition algorithms largely concentrate on the shorter time-scale structures in sounds, and the longer structures are ignored. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, it is a difficult technical problem to construct an algorithm that utilises both sorts of information. Secondly, it is computationally demanding to simultaneously process data both at high resolution (to extract short temporal information) and for long duration (to extract long temporal information). The contribution of this work is to develop a new statistical model for natural sounds that captures structure across a wide range of time-scales, and to provide efficient learning and inference algorithms. We demonstrate the success of this approach on a missing data task.

Modeling bipolar power semiconductor devices gachovska

This book presents physics-based models of bipolar power semiconductor devices and their implementation in MATLAB and Simulink. The devices are subdivided into different regions, and the operation in each region, along with the interactions at the interfaces which are analyzed using basic semiconductor physics equations that govern their behavior. The Fourier series solution is used to solve the ambipolar diffusion equation in the lightly doped drift region of the devices. In addition to the external electrical characteristics, internal physical and electrical information, such as the junction voltages and the carrier distribution in different regions of the device, can be obtained using the models. Table of Contents: Introduction to Power Semiconductor Device Modeling/Physics of Power Semiconductor Devices/Modeling of a Power Diode and IGBT/IGBT Under an Inductive Load-Switching Condition in Simulink/Parameter Extraction. © 2013 by Morgan & Claypool.

Modeling of soft clays response for seismic triggering of submarine slides

Submarine landslides pose considerable hazards to coastal communities and offshore structures. The difficulty and cost of obtaining undisturbed samples of offshore soils for determining material properties required for slope stability analyses contribute to the complexity of the problem. There are significant advantages in using a simplified model for the seismic response of submarine slopes, compatible with the limited amount of information that can be realistically gathered, but still able to capture the key elements of clay behavior. This paper illustrates the process of parameter determination and calibration of the SIMPLE DSS model, developed for the study of seismic triggering of submarine slope instabilities. The selection of parameters and predictions of monotonic and cyclic simple shear response are carried out for Boston Blue Clay, a marine clay extensively studied and with a large experimental database available in the literature. The results show that the simplified model is able to reproduce the important trends in the response of the soil, especially in accounting for the effect of the slope.

Modeling current-voltage behaviour in oxide TFTs combining trap-limited conduction with percolation

Current-voltage behaviour of oxide TFTs is modeled based on trap-limited conduction and percolation theories. The mobility has a power-law dependence, in which percolation controls the exponent while trap states determine constant term in the power law. The proposed model, which is fully physically-based, provides a good agreement with measured transistor characteristics as well as transient operations of fabricated pixel test circuits for oxide-based OLED displays. © 2013 Society for Information Display.

Synchronization in a coupled architecture of microelectromechanical oscillators

There has been much recent interest in engineering the phenomenon of synchronization in coupled micro-/nano-scale oscillators for applications ranging from precision time and frequency references to new approaches to information processing. This paper presents descriptive modelling detail and further experimental validation of the phenomenon of mutual synchronization in coupled MEMS oscillators building upon recent experimental validation of this concept by the present authors. In particular, the underlying dependence of the observation of synchronization on system parameters is studied through numerical and analytical modelling while considering essential nonlinearities in both the resonator and circuit domain. Experimental results demonstrating synchronized response are elaborated based on the realization of electrically coupled MEMS resonator based square-wave oscillators. The experimental results on frequency entrainment are found to be in general agreement with results obtained through analytical modeling and numerical simulation. The concept presented here is scalable and could be used to investigate the dynamics of large-arrays of coupled MEMS oscillators. © 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Coupled analysis of building damage due to tunnelling

Excavation works in urban areas require a preliminary risk damage assessment. In historical cities, the prediction of building response to settlements is necessary to reduce the risk of damage of the architectural heritage. The current method used to predict the building damage due to ground deformations is the Limiting Tensile Strain Method (LTSM). This method is based on an uncoupled soil-structure analysis, in which the building is modelled as an elastic beam subject to imposed greenfield settlements and the induced tensile strains are compared with a limit value for the material. This approach neglects many factors which play an important rule in the response of the structure to tunneling induced settlements. In this paper, the possibility to apply a settlement risk assessment derived from the seismic vulnerability approach is considered. The parameters that influence the structural response to settlements can be defined through numerical coupled analyses which take into account the nonlinear behaviour of masonry and the soil-structure interaction.