Taxonomic validity of Mesoclemmys heliostemma (McCord, Joseph-Ouni & Lamar, 2001) (Testudines, Chelidae) inferred from morphological analysis

Mesoclemmys heliostemma (Testudines: Chelidae) was described based on five vouchered specimens and nine live specimens from the western Amazon basin. Some authors questioned its status as a valid species, suggesting that it represents a junior synonym of M. raniceps. Here, we report on eight additional specimens from eastern Peru and northern Brazil, and provide descriptive statistics of morphological characters for hatchlings, juveniles, and adults of M. heliostemma, M. raniceps, and M. gibba. We also test for group differences through univariate and multivariate statistical analyses, and discuss some advantages of this methodology. Our data suggest that all three taxa are morphologically divergent, and that M. heliostemma is a valid species.

Strategies and results of the oral cancer prevention campaign among the elderly in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2001 to 2009

Objective. To describe the strategies and results obtained by the early diagnosis and prevention of an oral cancer campaign targeting the population aged 60 years or older developed since 2001 in the state of Sao Paulo. Methods. The main strategies used to develop the campaign were described based on the review of documents issued by the Health Ministry, National Cancer Institute, Sao Paulo State Health Department, Oncocentro Foundation of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo City Health Department, School of Public Health at the University of Sao Paulo (USP), and Santa Marcelina Health Care Center. The impact of the campaign on the incidence of new cases of oral cancer in the target population was evaluated. Results. In 2001, 90 886 elderly were examined vs. 629 613 in 2009. The following strategies were identified: training of professionals, development of printed materials to guide municipal governments in developing the campaign and using standardized codes and criteria, guidelines for data consolidation, establishment of patient referral flows, practical training with a specialist at the basic health care unit after the follow-up examination of individuals presenting changes in soft tissues, and increase in the number of oral diagnosis services. Between 2005 and 2009, there was a significant reduction in the rate of confirmed cases of oral cancer per 100 000 individuals examined, from 20.89 to 11.12 (P = 0.00003). Conclusions. The campaign was beneficial to the oral health of the elderly and could be extended to include other age groups and regions of the country. It may also provide a basis for the development of oral cancer prevention actions in other countries, as long as local characteristics are taken into account.

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.

Considerações de interesse sobre a avaliação em laboratório de elementos estruturais em situação de incêndio: contribuições à revisão da NBR 5628:2001

Existe um crescente interesse sobre a pesquisa sobre a segurança das estruturas em situação de incêndio no Brasil, mas ainda existem aspectos que carecem de discussão. A simulação e avaliação em laboratório de elementos estruturais em situação de incêndio é um desses aspectos, principalmente no que diz respeito à metodologia de ensaio. A norma técnica brasileira NBR 5628:2001 necessita de revisão com vistas à adaptação das metodologias internacionais à realidade brasileira ou, até mesmo, à definição de novas metodologias que considerem variáveis relevantes para o contexto local. Este trabalho apresenta um ponto de partida para essas discussões e reúne os parâmetros que norteiam os procedimentos metodológicos para a avaliação de elementos estruturais, em escala natural, com carga, e em situação de incêndio. Parâmetros de interesse como dimensões mínimas dos elementos, taxas de elevação de temperatura com o tempo, infraestrutura para o ensaio, instrumentação dos elementos estruturais, entre outros, são avaliados à luz da normalização nacional e internacional vigente. Espera-se que este trabalho forneça subsídios para a futura revisão da NBR 5628:2001 e estimule pesquisadores brasileiros a ingressar nessa nova e árdua linha de pesquisa.

Qualidade do relato dos procedimentos metodológicos em periódicos nacionais na área de administração de empresas: o caso da modelagem em equações estruturais nos periódicos nacionais entre 2001 e 2010

Esta pesquisa teve o objetivo de avaliar a qualidade da descrição dos procedimentos metodológicos de artigos que utilizaram a modelagem em equações estruturais (MEE), incluindo a análise fatorial confirmatória e a path analysis, e que foram publicados na RAE, RAUSP, REAd, O&S, RAC e RAE-eletrônica entre 2001 e 2010. A partir da revisão da literatura metodológica, foi elaborado um check list para avaliar as treze etapas da MEE, sendo validado com 33 especialistas. Os principais resultados da análise de 68 artigos encontrados foram: a impossibilidade de replicar os estudos devido à falta de informações e o uso de estratégias exploratórias sem a posterior validação. Por outro lado, a justificativa do método utilizado e a explicação das implicações teóricas dos resultados são aspectos que têm sido atendidos plenamente. O check list foi um importante subproduto desta pesquisa, pois, a partir dele, são propostas novas linhas de investigação e até mesmo seu uso como ferramenta didática.

Tortugas marinas: viejos nómadas en un mar moderno : estudio de la recuperación de tortugas marinas en el Centro de Recuperación de Fauna Silvestre de Tafira (CRFS) durante los años 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001

Máster en Medio Ambiente Litoral y Marino

Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersage für Deutschland von 2001 - 2004

Die Verifikation numerischer Modelle ist für die Verbesserung der Quantitativen Niederschlagsvorhersage (QNV) unverzichtbar. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von neuen Methoden zur Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersagen aus dem regionalen Modell der MeteoSchweiz (COSMO-aLMo) und des Globalmodells des Europäischen Zentrums für Mittelfristvorhersage (engl.: ECMWF). Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein neuartiger Beobachtungsdatensatz für Deutschland mit stündlicher Auflösung erzeugt und angewandt. Für die Bewertung der Modellvorhersagen wurde das neue Qualitätsmaß „SAL“ entwickelt. Der neuartige, zeitlich und räumlich hoch-aufgelöste Beobachtungsdatensatz für Deutschland wird mit der während MAP (engl.: Mesoscale Alpine Program) entwickelten Disaggregierungsmethode erstellt. Die Idee dabei ist, die zeitlich hohe Auflösung der Radardaten (stündlich) mit der Genauigkeit der Niederschlagsmenge aus Stationsmessungen (im Rahmen der Messfehler) zu kombinieren. Dieser disaggregierte Datensatz bietet neue Möglichkeiten für die quantitative Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersage. Erstmalig wurde eine flächendeckende Analyse des Tagesgangs des Niederschlags durchgeführt. Dabei zeigte sich, dass im Winter kein Tagesgang existiert und dies vom COSMO-aLMo gut wiedergegeben wird. Im Sommer dagegen findet sich sowohl im disaggregierten Datensatz als auch im COSMO-aLMo ein deutlicher Tagesgang, wobei der maximale Niederschlag im COSMO-aLMo zu früh zwischen 11-14 UTC im Vergleich zu 15-20 UTC in den Beobachtungen einsetzt und deutlich um das 1.5-fache überschätzt wird. Ein neues Qualitätsmaß wurde entwickelt, da herkömmliche, gitterpunkt-basierte Fehlermaße nicht mehr der Modellentwicklung Rechnung tragen. SAL besteht aus drei unabhängigen Komponenten und basiert auf der Identifikation von Niederschlagsobjekten (schwellwertabhängig) innerhalb eines Gebietes (z.B. eines Flusseinzugsgebietes). Berechnet werden Unterschiede der Niederschlagsfelder zwischen Modell und Beobachtungen hinsichtlich Struktur (S), Amplitude (A) und Ort (L) im Gebiet. SAL wurde anhand idealisierter und realer Beispiele ausführlich getestet. SAL erkennt und bestätigt bekannte Modelldefizite wie das Tagesgang-Problem oder die Simulation zu vieler relativ schwacher Niederschlagsereignisse. Es bietet zusätzlichen Einblick in die Charakteristiken der Fehler, z.B. ob es sich mehr um Fehler in der Amplitude, der Verschiebung eines Niederschlagsfeldes oder der Struktur (z.B. stratiform oder kleinskalig konvektiv) handelt. Mit SAL wurden Tages- und Stundensummen des COSMO-aLMo und des ECMWF-Modells verifiziert. SAL zeigt im statistischen Sinne speziell für stärkere (und damit für die Gesellschaft relevante Niederschlagsereignisse) eine im Vergleich zu schwachen Niederschlägen gute Qualität der Vorhersagen des COSMO-aLMo. Im Vergleich der beiden Modelle konnte gezeigt werden, dass im Globalmodell flächigere Niederschläge und damit größere Objekte vorhergesagt werden. Das COSMO-aLMo zeigt deutlich realistischere Niederschlagsstrukturen. Diese Tatsache ist aufgrund der Auflösung der Modelle nicht überraschend, konnte allerdings nicht mit herkömmlichen Fehlermaßen gezeigt werden. Die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelten Methoden sind sehr nützlich für die Verifikation der QNV zeitlich und räumlich hoch-aufgelöster Modelle. Die Verwendung des disaggregierten Datensatzes aus Beobachtungen sowie SAL als Qualitätsmaß liefern neue Einblicke in die QNV und lassen angemessenere Aussagen über die Qualität von Niederschlagsvorhersagen zu. Zukünftige Anwendungsmöglichkeiten für SAL gibt es hinsichtlich der Verifikation der neuen Generation von numerischen Wettervorhersagemodellen, die den Lebenszyklus hochreichender konvektiver Zellen explizit simulieren.

Diagnosi prenatale delle malformazioni fetali: ecografia e risonanza magnetica a confronto in 11 anni di esperienza

Obiettivo: Valutare l’accuratezza reciproca dell’ecografia “esperta” e della risonanza magnetica nelle diagnosi prenatale delle anomalie congenite. Materiali e metodi: Sono stati retrospettivamente valutati tutti i casi di malformazioni fetali sottoposte a ecografia “esperta” e risonanza magnetica nel nostro Policlinico da Ottobre 2001 a Ottobre 2012. L’età gestazionale media all’ecografia e alla risonanza magnetica sono state rispettivamente di 28 e 30 settimane. La diagnosi ecografica è stata confrontata con la risonanza e quindi con la diagnosi postnatale. Risultati: sono stati selezionati 383 casi, con diagnosi ecografica o sospetta malformazione fetale “complessa” o anamnesi ostetrica positiva infezioni prenatali, valutati con ecografia “esperta”, risonanza magnetica e completi di follow up. La popolazione di studio include: 196 anomalie del sistema nervoso centrale (51,2%), 73 difetti toracici (19,1%), 20 anomalie dell’area viso-collo (5,2%), 29 malformazioni del tratto gastrointestinale (7,6%), 37 difetti genito-urinari (9,7%) e 28 casi con altra indicazione (7,3%). Una concordanza tra ecografia, risonanza e diagnosi postnatale è stata osservata in 289 casi (75,5%) ed è stata maggiore per le anomalie del sistema nervoso centrale 156/196 casi (79,6%) rispetto ai difetti congeniti degli altri distretti anatomici 133/187 (71,1%). La risonanza ha aggiunto importanti informazioni diagnostiche in 42 casi (11%): 21 anomalie del sistema nervoso centrale, 2 difetti dell’area viso collo, 7 malformazioni toraciche, 6 anomalie del tratto gastrointestinale, 5 dell’apparato genitourinario e 1 caso di sospetta emivertebra lombare. L’ecografia è stata più accurata della risonanza in 15 casi (3,9%). In 37 casi (9,7%) entrambe le tecniche hanno dato esito diverso rispetto agli accertamenti postnatali. Conclusioni: l’ecografia prenatale rimane a tutt’oggi la principale metodica di imaging fetale. In alcuni casi complessi e/o dubbi sia del sistema nervoso centrale sia degli altri distretti anatomici la risonanza può aggiungere informazioni rilevanti.

Distribution and invasiveness of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes in Switzerland, a country with low antibiotic selection pressure, from 2001 to 2004

To describe the serotype-specific epidemiology of colonizing and invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates, which is important for vaccination strategies, we analyzed a total of 2,388 invasive and 1,540 colonizing S. pneumoniae isolates collected between January 2001 and December 2004 within two nationwide surveillance programs. We found that the relative rank orders of the most frequent serotypes (serotypes 1, 3, 4, 6B, 7F, 14, 19F, and 23F) differed among invasive and colonizing isolates. Serotypes 1, 4, 5, 7F, 8, 9V, and 14 had increased invasive potential, and serotypes/serogroups 3, 6A, 7, 10, 11, 19F, and 23F were associated with colonization. The proportion of pediatric serotypes was higher among children < 5 years old (48.5%) and persons > 64 years old (34.1%) than among other age groups (29.1%); it was also higher in West Switzerland (40.2%) than in other geographic regions (34.7%). Likewise, serotype-specific proportions of penicillin-resistant isolates for types 6B, 9V, 14, and 19F were significantly higher in West Switzerland. The relative frequency of pediatric serotypes corresponded with antibiotic consumption patterns. We conclude that the epidemiology of invasive and colonizing S. pneumoniae isolates is influenced by the serotype-specific potential for invasiveness, and therefore, surveillance programs should include colonizing and invasive S. pneumoniae isolates. Antibiotic selection pressure determines the serotype distribution in different age groups and geographic regions and therefore the expected direct and indirect effects of the 7-valent conjugate vaccine.

Prospective population-based study of RSV-related intermediate care and intensive care unit admissions in Switzerland over a 4-year period (2001-2005)

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are a leading cause of hospital admissions in small children. A substantial proportion of these patients require medical and nursing care, which can only be provided in intermediate (IMC) or intensive care units (ICU). This article reports on all children aged < 3 years who required admission to IMC and/or ICU between October 1, 2001 and September 30, 2005 in Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We prospectively collected data on all children aged < 3 years who were admitted to an IMC or ICU for an RSV-related illness. Using a detailed questionnaire, we collected information on risk factors, therapy requirements, length of stay in the IMC/ICU and hospital, and outcome. RESULTS: Of the 577 cases reported during the study period, 90 were excluded because the patients did not fulfill the inclusion criteria; data were incomplete in another 25 cases (5%). Therefore, a total of 462 verified cases were eligible for analysis. At the time of hospital admission, only 31 patients (11%) were older than 12 months. Since RSV infection was not the main reason for IMC/ICU admission in 52% of these patients, we chose to exclude this subgroup from further analyses. Among the 431 infants aged < 12 months, the majority (77%) were former near term or full term (NT/FT) infants with a gestational age > or = 35 weeks without additional risk factors who were hospitalized at a median age of 1.5 months. Gestational age (GA) < 32 weeks, moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), and congenital heart disease (CHD) were all associated with a significant risk increase for IMC/ICU admission (relative risk 14, 56, and 10, for GA < or = 32 weeks, BPD, and CHD, respectively). Compared with NT/FT infants, high-risk infants were hospitalized at an older age (except for infants with CHD), required more invasive and longer respiratory support, and had longer stays in the IMC/ICU and hospital. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, RSV infections lead to the IMC/ICU admission of approximately 1%-2% of each annual birth cohort. Although prematurity, BPD, and CHD are significant risk factors, non-pharmacological preventive strategies should not be restricted to these high-risk patients but also target young NT/FT infants since they constitute 77% of infants requiring IMC/ICU admission.