Unravelling past flash flood activity in a forested mountain catchment of the Spanish Central System

Flash floods represent one of the most common natural hazards in mountain catchments, and are frequent in Mediterranean environments. As a result of the widespread lack of reliable data on past events, the understanding of their spatio-temporal occurrence and their climatic triggers remains rather limited. Here, we present a dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past flash flood activity in the Arroyo de los Puentes stream (Sierra de Guadarrama, Spanish Central System). We analyze a total of 287 increment cores from 178 disturbed Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) which yielded indications on 212 growth disturbances related to past flash flood impact. In combination with local archives, meteorological data, annual forest management records and highly-resolved terrestrial data (i.e., LiDAR data and aerial imagery), the dendrogeomorphic time series allowed dating 25 flash floods over the last three centuries, with a major event leaving an intense geomorphic footprint throughout the catchment in 1936. The analysis of meteorological records suggests that the rainfall thresholds of flash floods vary with the seasonality of events. Dated flash floods in the 20th century were primarily related with synoptic troughs owing to the arrival of air masses from north and west on the Iberian Peninsula during negative indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results of this study contribute considerably to a better understanding of hazards related with hydrogeomorphic processes in central Spain in general and in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park in particular.

Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with Kernel functions

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra

Recent advances on dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood hazard analysis in Spain.

Estudios dendroecológicos para el análisis de regímentes torrenciales y avenidas

Flood Hazard Analysis in the ”Caldera de Taburiente” National Park (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) using Dendrogeomorphology

Aplicación de técnicas dendroecológicas para el estudio de avenidas torrenciales.

Detalles geometrales de una mezquita árabe en Sn. Felipe [Material gráfico] = Détails géométraux de l'Arc d'une mosquée arabe à St. Philippe = General deatils of an arabe mosque at St. Philip

Detalles de la fachada, planta y corte transversal

System theory based hazard analysis applied to the process industry

Chemical process accidents still occur and cost billions of dollars and, what is worse, many human lives. That means that traditional hazard analysis techniques are not enough mainly owing to the increase of complexity and size of chemical plants. In the last years, a new hazard analysis technique has been developed, changing the focus from reliability to system theory and showing promising results in other industries such as aeronautical and nuclear. In this paper, we present an approach for the application of STAMP and STPA analysis developed by Leveson in 2011 to the process industry.

Tolerance of Arc repressor to multiple-alanine substitutions

Arc repressor mutants containing from three to 15 multiple-alanine substitutions have spectral properties expected for native Arc proteins, form heterodimers with wild-type Arc, denature cooperatively with Tms equal to or greater than wild type, and, in some cases, fold as much as 30-fold faster and unfold as much as 50-fold slower than wild type. Two of the mutants, containing a total of 14 different substitutions, also footprint operator DNA in vitro. The stability of some of the proteins with multiple-alanine mutations is significantly greater than that predicted from the sum of the single substitutions, suggesting that a subset of the wild-type residues in Arc may interact in an unfavorable fashion. Overall, these results show that almost half of the residues in Arc can be replaced by alanine en masse without compromising the ability of this small, homodimeric protein to fold into a stable, native-like structure.

Dual regulation of open-complex formation and promoter clearance by Arc explains a novel repressor to activator switch.

In studies of variants of the P(ant) promoter of bacteriophage P22, the Arc protein was found not only to slow the rate at which RNA polymerase forms open complexes but also to accelerate the rate at which the enzyme clears the promoter. These dual activities permit Arc, bound at a single operator subsite, to act as an activator or as a repressor of different promoter variants. For example, Arc activates a P(ant) variant for which promoter clearance is rate limiting in the presence and absence of Arc but represses a closely related variant for which open-complex formation becomes rate limiting in the presence of Arc. The acceleration of promoter clearance by Arc requires occupancy of the operator subsite proximal to the -35 region and is diminished when Arc bears a mutation in Arg-23, a residue that makes a DNA-backbone contact in the operator complex.

A joint hazard and time scaling model to compare survival curves.

To provide a more general method for comparing survival experience, we propose a model that independently scales both hazard and time dimensions. To test the curve shape similarity of two time-dependent hazards, h1(t) and h2(t), we apply the proposed hazard relationship, h12(tKt)/ h1(t) = Kh, to h1. This relationship doubly scales h1 by the constant hazard and time scale factors, Kh and Kt, producing a transformed hazard, h12, with the same underlying curve shape as h1. We optimize the match of h12 to h2 by adjusting Kh and Kt. The corresponding survival relationship S12(tKt) = [S1(t)]KtKh transforms S1 into a new curve S12 of the same underlying shape that can be matched to the original S2. We apply this model to the curves for regional and local breast cancer contained in the National Cancer Institute's End Results Registry (1950-1973). Scaling the original regional curves, h1 and S1 with Kt = 1.769 and Kh = 0.263 produces transformed curves h12 and S12 that display congruence with the respective local curves, h2 and S2. This similarity of curve shapes suggests the application of the more complete curve shapes for regional disease as templates to predict the long-term survival pattern for local disease. By extension, this similarity raises the possibility of scaling early data for clinical trial curves according to templates of registry or previous trial curves, projecting long-term outcomes and reducing costs. The proposed model includes as special cases the widely used proportional hazards (Kt = 1) and accelerated life (KtKh = 1) models.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

Oxidation states of the manganese cluster during the flash-induced S-state cycle of the photosynthetic oxygen-evolving complex.

The Mn K-edge x-ray absorption spectra for the pure S states of the tetranuclear Mn cluster of the oxygen-evolving complex of photosystem II during flash-induced S-state cycling have been determined. The relative S-state populations in samples given 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 flashes were determined from fitting the flash-induced electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) multiline signal oscillation pattern to the Kok model. The edge spectra of samples given 0, 1, 2, or 3 flashes were combined with EPR information to calculate the pure S-state edge spectra. The edge positions (defined as the zero-crossing of the second derivatives) are 6550.1, 6551.7, 6553.5, and 6553.8 eV for S0, S1, S2, and S3, respectively. In addition to the shift in edge position, the S0--> S1 and S1--> S2 transitions are accompanied by characteristic changes in the shape of the edge, both indicative of Mn oxidation. The edge position shifts very little (0.3 eV) for the S2--> S3 transition, and the edge shape shows only subtle changes. We conclude that probably no direct Mn oxidation is involved in this transition. The proposed Mn oxidation state assignments are as follows: S0 (II, III, IV, IV) or (III, III, III, IV), S1 (III, III, IV, IV), S2 (III, IV, IV, IV), S3 (III, IV, IV, IV).

Sinterização flash do condutor catiônico beta-alumina sintetizada pelo método dos precursores poliméricos.

A beta-alumina de sódio é uma cerâmica condutora de íons Na+ utilizada como eletrólito sólido em baterias de sódio para armazenamento de energias intermitentes como energia solar e eólica. Devido ao alto teor de sódio, esse material é instável a altas temperaturas, podendo sofrer variações de composição durante a etapa de sinterização convencional que utiliza altas temperaturas por longos períodos de tempo. A sinterização flash é uma técnica de sinterização ativada por corrente elétrica que proporciona a densificação de compactos cerâmicos em poucos segundos, a temperaturas notavelmente mais baixas que as convencionais. Uma vez obrigatória a passagem de corrente elétrica através da amostra, a sinterização flash de qualquer material condutor parece bastante razoável. Não obstante, até o presente momento a maioria dos trabalhos publicados sobre o assunto aborda apenas condutores de vacância de oxigênio ou semicondutores, materiais compatíveis com eletrodos de platina (Pt). Nesse trabalho a sinterização flash de um condutor catiônico foi estudada utilizando-se a beta-alumina como material modelo. A beta-alumina foi sintetizada pelo método dos precursores poliméricos, caracterizada e então submetida à sinterização flash. O material de eletrodo padrão (platina) provou ser um eletrodo bloqueador em contato com a beta-alumina. O sucesso da sinterização flash foi determinado pela troca do material de eletrodo por prata (Ag), o que possibilitou uma reação eletroquímica reversível nas interfaces eletrodo-cerâmica e possibilitou a obtenção de um material densificado com morfologia e composição química homogêneas. Devido à metaestabilidade da beta-alumina, a atmosfera dos experimentos precisou ser alterada para manter a integridade desse material rico em um metal alcalino (Na+). A sinterização flash de um condutor catiônico é apresentada pela primeira vez na literatura e ressalta a importância da reação de eletrodo, que é um fator limitante para o sucesso da sinterização flash e precisa ser estudada e adaptada para cada tipo de material.