926 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation


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One of the important issues about using renewable energy is the integration of dispersed generation in the distribution networks. Previous experience has shown that the integration of dispersed generation can improve voltage profile in the network, decrease loss, etc. but can create safety and technical problems as well. This work report the application of the instantaneous space phasors and the instantaneous complex power in observing performances of the distribution networks with dispersed generators in steady state. New IEEE apparent power definition, the so-called Buchholz-Goodhue effective apparent power, as well as new proposed power quality (oscillation) index in the three-phase distribution systems with unbalanced loads and dispersed generators, are applied. Results obtained from several case studies using IEEE 34 nodes test network are presented and discussed. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The propagation of a free scalar field phi with mass m in a curved background is generally described by the equation (g(munu) delmudelnu + m(2) + xiR)phi = 0. There exist some arguments in the literature that seem to favor the conformal coupling to the detriment of the minimal one. However, the majority of these claims axe inconclusive. Here we show that the exact Foldy Wouthuysen transformation for spin-0 particle coupled to a wide class of static spacetime metrics exists independently of the value of. Nevertheless, if the coupling is of the conformal type, the gravitational Darwin-like term has an uncomplicated structure and it is proportional to the corresponding term in the fermionic case. In addition, an independent computation of this term, which has its origin in the zitterbewegung fluctuation of the boson's position with the mean square <(deltar)(2)> approximate to 1/m(2), gives a result that coincides with that obtained using the aforementioned exact transformation with xi = 1/6.

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This work is concerned with the computation of incompressible axisymmetric and fall three-dimensional free-surface flows. In particular, the circular-hydraulic jump is simulated and compared with approximate analytic solutions. However, the principal thrust of this paper is to provide a real problem as a test bed for comparing the many existing convective approximations. Their performance is compared; SMART, HLPA and VONOS emerge as acceptable upwinding methods for this problem. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

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Due to the wide range of design possibilities, simple manufactured, low maintenance and low cost, cross-flow heat exchangers are extensively used in the petroleum, petrochemical, air conditioning, food storage, and others industries. In this paper a mathematical model for cross-flow heat exchangers with complex flow arrangements for determining epsilon -NTU relations is presented. The model is based on the tube element approach, according to which the heat exchanger outlet temperatures are obtained by discretizing the coil along the tube fluid path. In each cross section of the element, tube-side fluid temperature is assumed to be constant because the heat capacity rate ratio C*=Cmin/Cmax tends toward zero in the element. Thus temperature is controlled by effectiveness of a local element corresponding to an evaporator or a condenser-type element. The model is validated through comparison with theoretical algebraic relations for single-pass cross-flow arrangements with one or more rows. Very small relative errors are obtained showing the accuracy of the present model. epsilon -NTU curves for several complex circuit arrangements are presented. The model developed represents a useful research tool for theoretical and experimental studies on heat exchangers performance.

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Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

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In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

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An approximate analytical expression for the first two eigenvalues of the Schrodinger equation for the potential V(x) = Ax(4) + Bx(2) is achieved by using the Symanzik scaling symmetry. A kind of symmetry restoration when one of the potential parameters changes conveniently is observed. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper analyzes through Multiple Scales Method a response of a simplified nonideal and nonlinear vibrating system. Here, one verifies the interactions between the dynamics of the DC motor (excitation) and the dynamics of the foundation (spring, damper, and mass). We remarked that we consider cubic nonlinearity (spring) and quadratic nonlinearity (DC motor) of the same order of magnitude according to experimental results. Both analytical and numerical results that we have obtained had good agreement.

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We give general expressions for the vector asymmetry in the angular distribution of protons in the nonmesonic weak decay of polarized hypernuclei. From these we derive an explicit expression for the calculation of the asymmetry parameter, a(Lambda), which is applicable to the specific cases of He-5(Lambda) and C-12(Lambda) described within the extreme shell model. In contrast to the approximate formula widely used in the literature, it includes the effects of three-body kinematics in the final states of the decay and correctly treats the contribution of transitions originating from single-proton states beyond the s-shell. This expression is then used for the corresponding numerical computation of a(Lambda) within several one-meson-exchange models. Besides the strictly local approximation usually adopted for the transition potential, we also consider the addition of the first-order nonlocality terms. We find values for a(Lambda) ranging from -0.62 to -0.24, in qualitative agreement with other theoretical estimates but in contradiction with some recent experimental determinations.

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This paper presents an approximate universality displayed by thermally stimulated depolarization currents ruled by stretched exponential relaxations when properly re-scaled. A visually perfect universality occurs especially when the energy and the heating rate are varied. It becomes somewhat poorer when the frequency factor or the stretched exponent changes. Empirical relations between the half widths and other pertinent parameters are given.