Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation.We analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean, annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7% by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period 1979–2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic, aircraft technology and flight routing.

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period 1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998), PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF = −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF = −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF = −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of −42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of −11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990–2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Ecological and social drivers of coffee pollination in Santander, Colombia

Bees and other insects provide pollination services that are key to determining the fruit set on coffee plantations. These pollination services are influenced by local ecology as well as human factors, both social and economic. To better understand these different factors, we assessed their effect on pollinators and coffee pollination services in Santander, Colombia. We quantified the effect of key ecological drivers on pollinator community composition, such as the method of farm management (either conventional or organic) and the surrounding landscape composition, specifically the proximity to forest. We found that ambient levels of pollination services provided by the local pollinator fauna (open pollination) accounted for a 10.5 ± 2.0% increase in final coffee fruit set, and that the various pollinators are affected differently by the differing factors. For example, our findings indicate that conventional farm management, using synthetic inputs, can promote pollinators, especially if they are in close proximity to natural forest fragments. This is particularly true for stingless bees. Honeybee visitation to coffee is also positively influenced by the conventional management of farms. Factors associated with greater numbers of stingless bees on farms include greater shade cover, lower tree densities, smaller numbers and types of trees in bloom, and younger coffee plantations. A forested landscape close to farms appears to enhance these factors, giving increased stability and resilience to the pollinating bees and insects. However we found that organic farms also support diverse pollinator communities, even if distant from forest fragments. The contribution of honeybees to pollination value (US$129.6/ha of coffee) is greater than that of stingless bees (US$16.5/ha of coffee). Since the method of farm management has a major impact on the numbers and types of pollinators attracted to farms, we have analysed the statistically significant social factors that influence farmers’ decisions on whether to adopt organic or conventional practices. These include the availability of technology, the type of landowner (whether married couples or individual owners), the number of years of farmers’ formal education, the role of institutions, membership of community organizations, farm size, coffee productivity and the number of coffee plots per farm. It is hoped that the use of our holistic approach, which combines investigation of the social as well as the ecological drivers of pollination, will help provide evidence to underpin the development of best practices for integrating the management of pollination into sustainable agricultural practices.

Watch-and-Comment as a Paradigm toward Ubiquitous Interactive Video Editing

The literature reports research efforts allowing the editing of interactive TV multimedia documents by end-users. In this article we propose complementary contributions relative to end-user generated interactive video, video tagging, and collaboration. In earlier work we proposed the watch-and-comment (WaC) paradigm as the seamless capture of an individual`s comments so that corresponding annotated interactive videos be automatically generated. As a proof of concept, we implemented a prototype application, the WACTOOL, that supports the capture of digital ink and voice comments over individual frames and segments of the video, producing a declarative document that specifies both: different media stream structure and synchronization. In this article, we extend the WaC paradigm in two ways. First, user-video interactions are associated with edit commands and digital ink operations. Second, focusing on collaboration and distribution issues, we employ annotations as simple containers for context information by using them as tags in order to organize, store and distribute information in a P2P-based multimedia capture platform. We highlight the design principles of the watch-and-comment paradigm, and demonstrate related results including the current version of the WACTOOL and its architecture. We also illustrate how an interactive video produced by the WACTOOL can be rendered in an interactive video environment, the Ginga-NCL player, and include results from a preliminary evaluation.

Efeitos da variação da carga por eixo, pressão de inflação e tipo de pneu na resposta elástica de um pavimento

O presente trabalho é uma análise experimental que procura investigar os efeitos dos fatores carga por eixo, pressão de inflação e tipo de pneu sobre o desempenho de pavimentos. Os dados e informações existentes sobre o quadro de cargas por eixo praticada pela frota de veículos pesados é razoável. A ação conjunta dos referidos fatores é ainda uma questão pouco explorada. Assim, para compensar a escassez de dados sobre pressão de inflação e tipo de construção de pneus utilizados na frota de carga, programou-se uma pesquisa de campo na rodovia estadual RS/240. As informações oriundas da pesquisa demonstram que há um acréscimo generalizado no valor da pressão dos pneus e um aumento de uso dos pneus de fabricação radial em relação aos pneus convencionais. Os dados de campo subsidiaram a programação de um experimento fatorial cruzado executado na Área de Pesquisas e Testes de Pavimentos da UFRGS/DAER. A variação dos níveis dos fatores deu-se através de um simulador linear de tráfego atuando sobre uma pista experimental com 20 m de comprimento por 3,5 m de largura. Tendo como resposta estrutural do pavimento a máxima deflexão superficial recuperável medida com uma viga Benkelmam, determinou-se como significantes os efeitos dos fatores carga por eixo e pressão de enchimento dos pneus. Os cálculos estatísticos indicam também que não há diferenças significativas entre os pneus tipo 9.00R20 e 9.00x20 e que todas interações não exercem efeitos significativos sobre a variável de resposta. Em seqüência, determinaram-se as áreas de contato do rodado duplo do simulador de tráfego com a superfície do pavimento ensaiado para as combinações dos níveis dos fatores. Pode-se, então, comparar área de contato medida com área circular calculada, considerada em muitos modelos de dimensionamento de pavimentos. Relacionou-se a variação da pressão de contato com a deflexão recuperável e procedeu-se uma comparação da mesma com a pressão de inflação nominal dos pneus. Apresenta-se um modelo de análise do desempenho do pavimento em função da carga por eixo e da pressão de inflação, nos limites do experimento. Os dados decorrentes do experimento viabilizaram a determinação dos Fatores de Equivalência de Cargas para os níveis dos fatores, considerando-se o pavimento ensaiado. Avaliou-se, via evolução das deflexões e dos Fatores de Equivalência de Cargas, a redução da vida do pavimento, obtendo-se, para a combinação de níveis mais críticos de carregamento, resultados significativos de até 88 % de redução. Propõe-se, por último, uma formulação para o Fator de Equivalência de Cargas que considere também a ação da pressão de inflação.

Fatores críticos relativos à abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e derivados

Em decorrência do atual processo de transformação da indústria do petróleo no Brasil, iniciado com base na Nova Lei do Petróleo - Lei n° 9.478, de 6 de agosto de 1997, assim como da respectiva abertura do mercado nacional, que poderá se consolidar a partir do ano 2001, são esperadas mudanças na estrutura da cadeia petrolífera brasileira. Tais modificações deverão ser causadas pelo aumento da concorrência, como conseqüência da entrada de novos agentes no setor, bem como entre o produto nacional e o importado, caracterizando um novo cenário de cunho competitivo no mercado de derivados de petróleo. Desta forma, a importação e exportação de petróleo e seus derivados por novos agentes, associado com a movimentação destes produtos e a utilização da infra-estrutura existente para transporte e armazenagem, são questões que merecem análises e considerações, sob a ótica da regulação. Dentro deste processo em curso, é fundamental a avaliação do grau da regulação, uma vez que os mercados legais, estruturados para a competição, atuam dentro de um contexto de regras preestabelecidas e que economias de mercado totalmente desregulamentadas podem acarretar sérias desigualdades para a sociedade. Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar quais são os principais fatores críticos, de cunho administrativo e econômico, que devem ser considerados na abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e seus derivados a outros agentes, de modo a se obter uma efetiva transição para uma economia orientada pelo mercado, dentro do novo modelo de Estado Regulador. Trata-se de uma pesquisa explicativa, por explicitar tais fatores críticos, assim como exploratória, pois é realizada em área onde existe pouco conhecimento e experiência disponível no País, bem como bibliográfica e documental, uma vez que se apoia na consulta a leis, decretos, portarias, documentos de órgãos públicos, livros, artigos etc. O processo de investigação consiste no levantamento da evolução histórica do setor, até o momento atual, na pesquisa da legislação e regulamentação em vigor, dos princípios da teoria da regulação e da experiência internacional, na análise descritiva do setor de transportes nacional, limitando-se ao transporte marítimo e dutoviário de petróleo e derivados, efetuando uma análise crítica do setor frente à Lei 9.478/97 e a abertura do mercado. O estudo identifica os fatores críticos que permitem criar as condições para o estabelecimento de um mercado orientado pela competição, ou seja, a existência de elementos básicos como oferta, demanda, acessibilidade aos serviços pela sociedade, qualidade e segurança, informação sobre preço e utilização dos produtos ou serviços e adequada fiscalização pelo Estado. Tais fatores estão associados ao acesso a informações, ao controle de tarifas, ao estabelecimento de condições de entrada e saída do mercado, ao controle da qualidade dos serviços prestados e à criação de um ambiente de transição de um regime controlado para um regime de mercado competitivo.

Desenvolvimento de pessoas: um estudo de caso no Grupo Peruzzo

A era do capital intelectual fez mudar os paradigmas de negócio. Hoje, o cenário corporativo é composto por uma gama de atividades que interagem entre si e influenciam os resultados das organizações em geral. Sob este ponto de vista, a compreensão dos fatores humanos auxiliam os executivos a alcançarem os objetivos organizacionais. Parte-se da idéia que o conhecimento e as pessoas tornam-se primordiais para o sucesso das empresas. Sendo que estas devem empenhar-se em buscá-lo, armazená-lo e disseminar o que elas aprenderam. Os programas de Treinamento e Desenvolvimento são responsáveis pela capacitação das pessoas da empresa que aprende. Os programas de T&D podem tornar as organizações mais competitivas, com empregados aptos a desempenharem as atividades da melhor maneira possível. E é justamente isto que este trabalho aborda, focando na utilização dos conceitos associados à Gestão de Pessoas, para compreender a percepção dos gestores de uma empresa do segmento do varejo com relação a efetividade dos programas de T&D adotados. Especificamente, a problemática foi descobrir como os gestores de uma empresa avaliaram os programas de desenvolvimento e a sua efetividade. Para tanto, elaborou-se um estudo de caso de abordagem qualitativa para investigar como os gestores percebem os programas de treinamento. Utilizou-se a entrevista semi estruturada para investigar 25 gestores de uma empresa do segmento de varejo no período de 25 a 28 de junho de 2010. O estudo mostrou que os gestores aprovam os programas adotados.

SurRFE -Sub-rede de filtragens específicas

The increasing of the number of attacks in the computer networks has been treated with the increment of the resources that are applied directly in the active routers equip-ments of these networks. In this context, the firewalls had been consolidated as essential elements in the input and output control process of packets in a network. With the advent of intrusion detectors systems (IDS), efforts have been done in the direction to incorporate packets filtering based in standards of traditional firewalls. This integration incorporates the IDS functions (as filtering based on signatures, until then a passive element) with the already existing functions in firewall. In opposite of the efficiency due this incorporation in the blockage of signature known attacks, the filtering in the application level provokes a natural retard in the analyzed packets, and it can reduce the machine performance to filter the others packets because of machine resources demand by this level of filtering. This work presents models of treatment for this problem based in the packets re-routing for analysis by a sub-network with specific filterings. The suggestion of implementa- tion of this model aims reducing the performance problem and opening a space for the consolidation of scenes where others not conventional filtering solutions (spam blockage, P2P traffic control/blockage, etc.) can be inserted in the filtering sub-network, without inplying in overload of the main firewall in a corporative network

Diferentes densidades de Trichospilus diatreae (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) e seu desenvolvimiento sobre pupas de Thyrinteina arnobia (Lepdoptera: Geometridae)

The control of defoliating caterpillars in eucalyptus forests via the application of chemical and biological insecticides is a complex issue, mainly due to the large size of plantations and the height of trees. Because of this complexity, alternate control methods have been proposed, such as biological control. Several factors should be taken into consideration for biological control programs to be successful, including density of natural enemies released. In this experiment we used 48-hour-old Thyrinteina arnobia pupae exposed to parasitism by 48-hour-old Trichospilus diatraeae females at the following parasitoid/host ratios, respectively: 1:1, 7:1, 14:1, 21:1, 28:1, and 35:1, with 15 replicates per treatment. Density was an important factor for T. diatraeae development, since parasitism rates of 33.3% were found at a density of 1 female per pupa, while no significant differences were found among parasitism rates for densities of 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 females/pupa, with parasitism rates above 70 %. As to emergence, densities of 1:1 and 35:1 did not differ statistically, with low emergence rates. The 7:1 density had an intermediate performance, while densities of 14:1, 21:1, and 28:1 were the most effective, with emergence rates above 90%. With regard to the number of emerged parasitoids there was a positive intraspecific interference up to the 28:1 density. There was an increase in development period from egg-adult as the density of females per pupa increased.

Estudo da secagem do pedúnculo do caju em sistemas convencional e solar: modelagem e simulação do processo

This work aims to study the drying of cashew-nut pulp with different lay-out of dryers using conventional and solar energy. It concerns with the use of exceeding of the regional raw material and the suitable knowledge for the applicability of the drying systems as pathway for food conservation. Besides, it used renewable sources as solar energy to dry these agroindustrial products. Runs were carried out using a conventional tray-dryer with temperature, air velocity control and cashew slice thickness of 55°C, 65°C, 75°C; 3.0; 4.5, 6.0 m s-1; 1.0; 1.5 and 2.0 cm, respectively, in order to compare the studied systems. To evaluate the conventional tray-dryer, it was used a diffusional model of 2nd Fick´s law, where the drying curves were quite well fitted to an infinite flat plate design. For the drying runs where the room temperature had no control, it was developed a phenomenological-mathematical model for the solar dryer with indirect radiation under natural and forced convection based on material and energy balances of the system. Besides, it was carried out assays in the in natura as well as dehydrated, statistic analysis of the experimental drying data, sensorial analysis of the final dry product and a simplified economical analysis of the systems studied

Lócus de controle e conceito de maternidade e paternidade em adolescentes

Locus of control is a construct that seeks to explain people's perceptions about the source of control of events, if the subject's own - internal - or belonging to some element outside of oneself - external. The location of individual s locus of control will suffer influence of their developmental period. During adolescence, individuals turn to the construction of their identity, and the structuring of sexual identity is a relevant part of this process, since the roles of males and females are the most important from the socio-cultural point of view. One of the roles that adolescents can take is the mother or father. We chose to head the adolescents who are not mothers and fathers, and question them about their concepts of parenthood. It is hypothesized that adolescents with internal locus of control will probably develop concepts of maternity and paternity in which they attach to themselves the responsibility for children. The aim of this study was to relate the locus of control s predominant dimension in adolescence and the way that these young people conceptualize parenthood. This is an exploratory analytical cross-sectional study accomplished with 400 adolescents from the classes of the sixth to ninth grade of high school at public schools in Natal / RN. We used as protocols: structured questionnaire involving sociodemographic questions and questions about the concept of parenthood, and the Multifactorial Scale of Locus of Control. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, with the aid of statistical package SPSS 18.0. The results regarding questions about the concept of maternity and paternity were analyzed using the analysis program often ALCESTE 4.7. The results showed that for boys and girls, maternity and paternity were characterized by the acquisition and assumption of responsibilities of adulthood. This concept is supported by the locus of control s classification of individuals, since most of the subjects of this study was characterized as individuals who tend to take responsibility for their life's events. For young people from lower classes (as the subjects of this research), the project of autonomy and social mobility is realized by the constitution of his own family and the ability to sustain it

Fatores contribuintes aos acidentes aeronáuticos

O objetivo do estudo foi comparar os resultados de investigações de acidentes aeronáuticos brasileiros do Centro de Investigação e Prevenção de Acidentes Aeronáuticos (Cenipa) com os do sistema de análise e classificação de fatores humanos (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System - HFACS). Foram analisados e comparados os relatórios finais de 36 investigações de acidentes aeronáuticos ocorridos entre 2000 e 2005, no estado de São Paulo. Foram mencionados 163 fatores contribuintes dos acidentes aeronáuticos nos relatórios do Cenipa, enquanto 370 foram identificados por meio do HFACS. Conclui-se que as análises do Cenipa não contemplaram fatores organizacionais associados aos acidentes aéreos.

Fatores de risco associados à infecção por Toxoplasma gondii em ovinos e caprinos no estado de Pernambuco

Objetivou-se com este estudo investigar a participação de Toxoplasma gondii em falhas reprodutivas em pequenos ruminantes de criatórios situados na Zona da Mata e no Agreste do Estado de Pernambuco e que apresentavam histórico de distúrbios reprodutivos. Foram selecionadas 12 propriedades das quais se coletaram amostras de 262 animais, sendo 167 caprinos e 95 ovinos. Realizou-se a pesquisa de anticorpos anti-Toxoplasma gondii, utilizando-se a técnica da Imunofluorescência Indireta (RIFI). Foram aplicados questionários investigativos nas propriedades visitadas para identificar os fatores de risco associados à infecção. em 100% das propriedades foram encontrados animais soropositivos. Para T. gondii, das 167 amostras de soro caprino analisadas, 31,7% foram positivas, enquanto que na espécie ovina, das 95 amostras, 16,9% foram positivas. Para a espécie ovina, não foram observadas associações significativas. Para os caprinos, houve associação significativa (p<0,05) para as variáveis: manejo intensivo (OR=2,40), exploração leiteira (OR=2,10), animais procedentes de outros estados (OR=7,89) e monta natural (OR=5,69). Conclui-se que a infecção pelo T. gondii encontra-se disseminada nos rebanhos de caprinos e ovinos estudados e que medidas sanitárias devem ser adotadas para controlar os fatores de risco identificados neste estudo.

Exotic snakes in São Paulo City, southeastern Brazil: Why xenophobia ?

Introduced exotic species cause environmental changes and threat public health in target sites. Illegal trade has enhanced this problem. To first report these risks in Brazil, exotic snakes found in São Paulo City (SPC) (23degrees32' S, 46degrees38' W), southeastern Brazil, and sent to Instituto Butantan between 1995 and 2000, were listed and characterized by their biological attributes. Seventy-six individuals of sixteen alien species were collected. Euriecians snakes, mainly booids, were predominant. Using multivariate techniques, their ecological niches were compared to those of 26 native species, as a way to point out the resource's availability. To evaluate the potential of successful implantation, two species absent in SPC and considered as problem snakes are included in these analyses: the brown treesnake Boiga irregularis and the habu Trimeresurus flavoviridis. There were niche similarities between these pest snakes, exotic booids and native viperids largely due to the similarities in the chosen prey (mammals), diel activity (nocturnal), color pattern (variegated) and body size (medium to large). To avoid predictable undesirable effects of implanted pest snakes, traffic control and punishment should be improved, as well as parallel environmental education programs.

Simultaneous recording of shadowgrams and schlieren images for the study of plasma assisted aerodynamics

This work describes an optical device for the simultaneous recording of shadowgrams and schlieren images, and some results are presented concerning its applications to the study of plasma assisted flow control in airfoil models. This approach offers many advantages in comparison to other methods, specially because the use of tracer particles (like smoke in wind tunnels) is not required for the experiments, thus avoiding contaminations in the electric discharges or air flows. Besides, while schlieren images reveal the refractive index gradients in the area of study, shadowgrams detect the second order spatial derivatives of the refractive indexes. Therefore, the simultaneous recording of these different images may give interesting information about the phenomena under study. In this paper, these images were used to confirm the existence of vortex structures in the flow induced by corona discharges on airfoil models. These structures are a possible explanation for the effects of drag reduction and lift force increasing, which have been reported in experiments of plasma assisted Aerodynamics.