902 resultados para ARCH-in-mean
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jmpierce2 computes the decomposition of differences in mean outcome differentials proposed by Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1991). An example is the decomposition of the change of the black-white or the male-female wage differential over time or the decomposition of differences in the male-female wage differential between countries. This routine was previously circulated as jmp2.
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The climate of Chilean Patagonia is strongly influenced by the southern westerlies, which control the amount and latitudinal distribution of precipitation in the southern Andes. In austral summer, the Southern Westerly Wind Belt (SWWB) is restricted to the high latitudes. It expands northward in winter, which results in a strong precipitation seasonality between 35 and 45°S. Here, we present a new precipitation seasonality proxy record from Quitralco fjord (46°S), where relatively small latitudinal shifts in the SWWB result in large changes in precipitation seasonality. Our 1400 yr record is based on sedimentological and geochemical data obtained on a sediment core collected in front of a small river that drains the Patagonian Andes, which makes this site particularly sensitive to changes in river discharge. Our results show Fe/Al and Ti/Al values that are low between 600 and 1200 CE, increasing at 1200-1500 CE, and high between 1500 and 1950 CE. The increasing Fe/Al and Ti/Al values reflect a decrease in mean sediment grain-size from 30 to 20 µm, which is interpreted as a decrease in seasonal floods resulting from an equatorward shift of the SWWB. Our results suggest that, compared to present-day conditions, the SWWB was located in a more poleward position before 1200 CE. It gradually shifted towards the equator in 1200-1500 CE, where it remained in a sustained position until 1950 CE. The comparison of our record with published regional sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the late Holocene shows that equatorward shifts in the SWWB are systematically coeval with decreasing SSTs and vice versa, which resembles fluctuations over glacial-interglacial timescales. We argue that the synchronicity between SST and SWWB changes during the last 1400 years represents the response of the SWWB to temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
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We compare a new mid-Pleistocene sea surface temperature (SST) record from the eastern tropical Atlantic to changes in continental ice volume, orbital insolation, Atlantic deepwater ventilation, and Southern Ocean front positions to resolve forcing mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). At the onset of the MPT, a strong tropical cooling occurred. The change from a obliquity- to a eccentricity-dominated cyclicity in the tropical SST took place at about 650 kyr BP. In orbital cycles, tropical SST changes significantly preceded continental ice-volume changes but were in phase with movements of Southern Ocean fronts. After the onset of large-amplitude 100-kyr variations, additional late glacial warming in the eastern tropical Atlantic was caused by enhanced return flow of warm waters from the western Atlantic driven by strong trade winds. Pronounced 80-kyr variations in tropical SST occurred during the MPT, in phase with and likely directly forced by transitional continental ice-volume variations. During the MPT, a prominent anomalous long-term tropical warming occurred, likely generated by extremely northward displaced Southern Ocean fronts. While the overall pattern of global climate variability during the MPT was determined by changes in mean state and frequency of continental ice volume variations, tropical Atlantic SST variations were primarily driven by early changes in Subantarctic sea-ice extent and coupled Southern Ocean frontal positions.
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During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.
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Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.
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Beach profile lines at 21 near-evenly spaced intervals along Holden Beach, North Carolina, between Lockwoods Folly and Shallotte Inlets, were measured from November 1970 to December 1974. These have been analyzed to determine the spatial and temporal variabilities on long-term, seasonal, and short-term scales. Profile lines near the inlets showed the greatest variability in mean sea level (MSL) position, above MSL volume, foreshore slope, and profile envelope. This variability near Lockwoods Folly Inlet was partly enhanced by artificial nourishment at profile line 2. Temporary, low-cost shore protection devices (e.g., sandbag groins) were constructed near that inlet during part of the study. No other modifications or activities that affected beach processes were known to occur during the study period. The central part of Holden Beach was studied separately because of the high variability of the inlet sections at either end of the island. Foreshore slopes along this reach increased from an average of 1:30 at the east end to 1:17 at the west. A seasonal change in above MSL volume indicates loss of sand during autumn and winter, and gain during spring and summer. Changes in MSL shoreline intercept and above MSL volume were highly variable during the study.
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Cf. OCLC #4373490; LC #05-37714 for an edition 4 v. in 2.
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The Baltic Sea is a unique environment as the largest body of brackish water in the world. Acidification of the surface oceans due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is an additional stressor facing the pelagic community of the already challenging Baltic Sea. To investigate its impact on trace gas biogeochemistry, a large-scale mesocosm experiment was performed off Tvärminne Research Station, Finland in summer 2012. During the second half of the experiment, dimethylsulphide (DMS) concentrations in the highest fCO2 mesocosms (1075-1333 µatm) were 34 % lower than at ambient CO2 (350 µatm). However the net production (as measured by concentration change) of seven halocarbons analysed was not significantly affected by even the highest CO2 levels after 5 weeks exposure. Methyl iodide (CH3I) and diiodomethane (CH2I2) showed 15 % and 57 % increases in mean mesocosm concentration (3.8 ± 0.6 pmol L-1 increasing to 4.3 ± 0.4 pmol L-1 and 87.4 ± 14.9 pmol L-1 increasing to 134.4 ± 24.1 pmol L-1 respectively) during Phase II of the experiment, which were unrelated to CO2 and corresponded to 30 % lower Chl-? concentrations compared to Phase I. No other iodocarbons increased or showed a peak, with mean chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) concentrations measured at 5.3 (± 0.9) pmol L-1 and iodoethane (C2H5I) at 0.5 (± 0.1) pmol L-1. Of the concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3; mean 88.1 ± 13.2 pmol L-1), dibromomethane (CH2Br2; mean 5.3 ± 0.8 pmol L-1) and dibromochloromethane (CHBr2Cl, mean 3.0 ± 0.5 pmol L-1), only CH2Br2 showed a decrease of 17 % between Phases I and II, with CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl showing similar mean concentrations in both Phases. Outside the mesocosms, an upwelling event was responsible for bringing colder, high CO2, low pH water to the surface starting on day t16 of the experiment; this variable CO2 system with frequent upwelling events implies the community of the Baltic Sea is acclimated to regular significant declines in pH caused by up to 800 µatm fCO2. After this upwelling, DMS concentrations declined, but halocarbon concentrations remained similar or increased compared to measurements prior to the change in conditions. Based on our findings, with future acidification of Baltic Sea waters, biogenic halocarbon emissions are likely to remain at similar values to today, however emissions of biogenic sulphur could significantly decrease from this region.
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beta2-Laminin is important for the formation of neuromuscular junctions in vertebrates. Previously, we have inactivated the gene that encodes for beta2-laminin in mice and observed predominantly prejunctional structural defects. In this study, we have used both intra- and extracellular recording methods to investigate evoked neurotransmission in beta2-laminin-deficient mice, from postnatal day 8 (P8) through to day 18(P18). Our results confirmed that there was a decrease in the frequency of spontaneous release, but no change in the postjunctional response to such release. Analysis of evoked neurotransmission showed an increase in the frequency of stimuli that failed to elicit an evoked postjunctional response in the mutants compared to litter mate controls, resulting in a 50% reduction in mean quantal content at mutant terminals. Compared to littermate controls, beta2-laminin-deficient terminals showed greater synaptic depression when subjected to high frequency stimulation. Furthermore, the paired pulse ratio of the first two stimuli was significantly lower in beta2-laminin mutant terminals. Statistical analysis of the binomial parameters of release showed that the decrease in quantal content was due to a decrease in the number of release sites without any significant change in the average probability of release. This suggestion was supported by the observation of fewer synaptic vesicle protein 2 (SV2)-positive varicosities in beta2-laminin-deficient terminals and by ultrastructural observations showing smaller terminal profiles and increased Schwann cell invasion in beta2-laminin mutants; the differences between beta2-laminin mutants and wild-type mice were the same at both P8 and P18. From these results we conclude that beta2-laminin plays a role in the early structural development of the neuromuscular junction. We also suggest that transmitter release activity may act as a deterrent to Schwarm cell invasion in the absence of beta2-laminin.
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Study Design. A systematic review of randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials. Objectives. To determine the efficacy of prolotherapy injections in adults with chronic low back pain. Summary of Background Data. Prolotherapy is an injection-based treatment for chronic low back pain. Proponents of prolotherapy suggest that some back pain stems from weakened or damaged ligaments. Repeatedly injecting them with irritant solutions is thought to strengthen the ligaments and reduce pain and disability. Prolotherapy protocols usually include co-interventions to enhance the effectiveness of the injections. Methods. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Science Citation Index up to January 2004, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register 2004, issue 1, and consulted content experts. Both randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing prolotherapy injections to control injections, either alone or in combination with other treatments, were included. Studies had to include measures of pain and disability before and after the intervention. Two reviewers independently selected the trials and assessed them for methodologic quality. Treatment and control group protocols varied from study to study, making meta-analysis impossible. Results. Four studies, all of high quality and with a total of 344 participants, were included. All trials measured pain and disability levels at 6 months, three measured the proportion of participants reporting a greater than 50% reduction in pain or disability scores from baseline to 6 months. Two studies showed significant differences between the treatment and control groups for those reporting more than 50% reduction in pain or disability. Their results could not be pooled. In one, cointerventions confounded interpretation of results; in the other, there was no significant difference in mean pain and disability scores between the groups. In the third study, there was little or no difference between groups in the number of individuals who reported more than 50% improvement in pain and disability. The fourth study reporting only mean pain and disability scores showed no differences between groups. Conclusions. There is conflicting evidence regarding the efficacy of prolotherapy injections in reducing pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. Conclusions are confounded by clinical heterogeneity among studies and by the presence of co-interventions. There was no evidence that prolotherapy injections alone were more effective than control injections alone. However, in the presence of co-interventions, prolotherapy injections were more effective than control injections, more so when both injections and co-interventions were controlled concurrently.
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The present study compared the ability of school-aged children with and without a history of otitis media (OM) to understand everyday speech in noise using the University of Queensland Understanding of Everyday Speech Test (UQUEST). Participants were 484 children (246 boys, 238 girls) attending Grade 3 (272, mean age = 8.25 yr., SD = 0.43) and Grade 4 (212, mean age = 9.28 yr., SD = 0.41) at 19 primary schools in Brisbane metropolitan and Sunshine Coast schools. Children selected for inclusion were native speakers of English with normal hearing on the day of testing and had no reported physical or behavioral impairments. The children were divided into three groups according to the number of episodes of OM since birth. The results showed no significant differences in speech scores across the participant groups. However, a significant difference in mean speech scores was found across the grades and the noise conditions. Although children with a history of OM performed equally well at a group level when compared to the controls, they exhibited a large range of abilities in speech comprehension within the same group.
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Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of a programme of static positional stretches and positioning of the stroke-affected shoulder for maintaining shoulder external rotation and decreasing hemiplegic shoulder pain. Design: Randomized controlled trial with pretest and posttest design. Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation unit. Subjects: Thirty-two participants ( 17 treatment, 15 comparison) with a first time stroke who were admitted for rehabilitation. Interventions: Treatment participants completed a programme of static positional stretches of the stroke-affected shoulder twice daily and positioned the stroke-affected upper limb in an armrest support at all other times when seated. Main measures: The main outcome measures were pain-free range of motion into external rotation, pain in the stroke-affected shoulder at rest and with movement, motor recovery and functional independence. Results: All participants demonstrated a significant loss of external rotation ( P = 0.005) with no significant group differences. All participants demonstrated a significant improvement in motor recovery ( P < 0.01) and functional independence ( P < 0.01) with no significant group differences. There were no significant effects for pain. The comparison group recorded a decrease in mean pain reported with movement from admission to discharge, and the treatment group recorded an increase. Conclusions: Participation in the management programme did not result in improved outcomes. The results of this study do not support the application of the programme of static positional stretches to maintain range of motion in the shoulder. The effect of increasing pain for the treatment group requires further investigation.
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We present the analysis of the spectroscopic and photometric catalogues of 11 X-ray luminous clusters at 0.07 < z < 0.16 from the Las Campanas/Anglo-Australian Telescope Rich Cluster Survey. Our spectroscopic data set consists of over 1600 galaxy cluster members, of which two-thirds are outside r(200). These spectra allow us to assign cluster membership using a detailed mass model and expand on our previous work on the cluster colour-magnitude relation ( CMR) where membership was inferred statistically. We confirm that the modal colours of galaxies on the CMR become progressively bluer with increasing radius d( B - R)/dr(p) = - 0.011 +/- 0.003 and with decreasing local galaxy density d( B - R)/dlog ( Sigma)= - 0.062 +/- 0.009. Interpreted as an age effect, we hypothesize that these trends in galaxy colour should be reflected in mean H delta equivalent width. We confirm that passive galaxies in the cluster increase in Hd line strength as dH delta/dr(p) = 0.35 +/- 0.06. Therefore, those galaxies in the cluster outskirts may have younger luminosity-weighted stellar populations; up to 3 Gyr younger than those in the cluster centre assuming d( B - R)/dt = 0.03 mag per Gyr. A variation of star formation rate, as measured by [ O II]lambda 3727 angstrom, with increasing local density of the environment is discernible and is shown to be in broad agreement with previous studies from the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We divide our spectra into a variety of types based upon the MORPHs classification scheme. We find that clusters at z similar to 0.1 are less active than their higher-redshift analogues: about 60 per cent of the cluster galaxy population is non-star forming, with a further 20 per cent in the post-starburst class and 20 per cent in the currently active class, demonstrating that evolution is visible within the past 2 - 3 Gyr. We also investigate unusual populations of blue and very red non-star forming galaxies and we suggest that the former are likely to be the progenitors of galaxies which will lie on the CMR, while the colours of the latter possibly reflect dust reddening. We show that the cluster galaxies at large radii consist of both backsplash ones and those that are infalling to the cluster for the first time. We make a comparison to the field population at z similar to 0.1 and examine the broad differences between the two populations. Individually, the clusters show significant variation in their galaxy populations which we suggest reflects their recent infall histories.