华南热带亚热带森林生态系统恢复/演替过程碳、氮、水演变机理

项目针对热带亚热带森林生态系统服务功能及所属区域社会发展的需求，结合全球变化（CO2浓度上升导致的全球变暖、氮沉降、降水格局演变）所面临的关键科学问题，系统开展森林生态系统碳、氮、水等过程演变规律的研究。经过十多年的努力，取得如下创新性理论：⑴成熟森林土壤可持续积累有机碳。发现亚热带成熟森林表土层（0-20cm）有机碳以0.61t/hm2•a的速度增加，为确认成熟森林作为新的碳汇奠定基础。⑵成熟森林趋于氮饱和。发现热带亚热带成熟森林生态系统趋于氮饱和，氮沉降增加将导致系统养分平衡的破坏。⑶退化生态系统恢复限制因子理论。水热季节分配不均限制了退化生态系统的恢复。⑷森林生态系统恢复/演替过程中其结构与功能、地上和地下不同步理论。创新方法：计算土壤C贮量长期变化的新方法；建立森林地下NPP关联估算模型；基于C/N确定森林土壤硝化与反硝化作用速率；推出降水动能及其受林冠分配调控的理论计算方法；提出任意时空尺度的生态系统水热状况量度指标及计算公式。发表Science等SCI论文52篇，核心期刊论文185篇，专著3部，被SCI论文引用312篇次，核心期刊引用2277篇次，核心内容之一被评为“2006年度中国基础研究十大新闻”。该成果催生生态系统非平衡理论框架的建立，引起国际同行的极大关注并获得高度评价，达到了世界领先水平。

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

As aves antárticas estão livres de hemoparasitos? Um estudo de caso de pinguins (Pygoscelis spp.) e de skuas (Catharacta spp.) antárticos da Baía do Almirantado, Ilha Rei George, Antártica.

O parasitismo é uma importante força seletiva em populações, assim como a competição e a predação. Os parasitos sanguíneos podem afetar a coloração da plumagem, a seleção sexual e o sucesso reprodutivo em aves. As aves da região Antártica têm sido mencionadas na literatura como livres de hemoparasitos. A Baía do Almirantado, na Ilha Rei George, Península Antártica, é a maior Baía da região, abrigando diferentes espécies de aves durante o período reprodutivo. Dentre elas, estão duas espécies de skuas, as mais frequentes da Antártica, skua-sub-antártica (Catharacta lonnbergi) e skua-polar-do-sul (C. maccormicki) e três espécies de pinguins, pinguim-antártico (Pygoscelis antarctica), pinguim-papua (P. papua) e pinguim-de-adélia (P. adeliae). Skuas e pinguins são aves que se dispersam durante o inverno austral, podendo ser potenciais reservatórios e transmissores de parasitos, embora resultados negativos de hemoparasitos tenham sido encontrados para diversas outras aves marinhas e também para a região Antártica. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi investigar a presença de hemoparasitos em pinguins e skuas antárticos na Baía do Almirantado. Amostras de lâminas de esfregaço sanguíneo e de sangue para análises moleculares de pesquisa de Plasmodium/Haemoproteus foram coletadas em dois períodos reprodutivos, de dezembro de 2010 a março de 2011 e de dezembro de 2011 a fevereiro de 2012. Um total de 185 amostras de aves foram coletadas, incluindo 120 pinguins e 65 skuas. Skuas foram tiveram resultados negativos para hemoparasitos. As três espécies de pinguins foram positivas para Plasmodium/Haemoproteus , via técnica molecular, incluindo dois P. papua,dois P. antarctica etrês P. adeliae. Apenas um indivíduo confirmado positivo pela técnica molecular, pertencente a P. papua, foi positivo utilizando a técnica de esfregaço sanguíneo, com diagnóstico de Plasmodium sp. Não houve diferença significativa entre indivíduos machos e fêmeas das espécies parasitadas, assim como entre adultos e filhotes. As aves parasitadas (n=7), foram categorizadas abaixo do peso (n=5) e acima do peso (n=2). O presente estudo é o primeiro a relatar hemoparasitos na região Antártica e também é o primeiro registro de presença de hemoprotozoários para as três espécies de pinguins analisadas. A ausência de hemoparasitos em aves antárticas tem sido justificada pela ausência de potenciais vetores na região. Portanto, é possível que os pinguins parasitados tenham adquirido a infecção durante a dispersão por ocasião do inverno austral. No entanto, skuas antárticas também são aves migratórias, que podem atingir regiões com potenciais vetores reconhecidos, mas nunca foram diagnosticadas com hemoparasitos, o que foi reforçado pelos resultados negativos do presente estudo. Nesse caso, acredita-se que skuas, podem ter um sistema imune competente ou que a ausência de hemoparasitos nessas aves seja justificada por confinamentos filogenéticos entre parasito-hospedeiro. Entretanto, pouco se sabe sobre a existência de vetores na Antártica, rotas migratórias das aves da região e especificidade parasito-hospedeiro. Os resultados inéditos encontrados no presente estudo devem, portanto, servir como ponto de partida para o entendimento das interações parasito-hospedeiro, de forma a contribuir para a preservação do ambiente antártico.

Soviet Illegal Whaling: The Devil and the Details

In 1948, the U.S.S.R. began a global campaign of illegal whaling that lasted for three decades and, together with the poorly managed “legal” whaling of other nations, seriously depleted whale populations. Although the general story of this whaling has been told and the catch record largely corrected for the Southern Hemisphere, major gaps remain in the North Pacific. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the details of this system or its economic context. Using interviews with former Soviet whalers and biologists as well as previously unavailable reports and other material in Russian, our objective is to describe how the Soviet whaling industry was structured and how it worked, from the largest scale of state industrial planning down to the daily details of the ways in which whales were caught and processed, and how data sent to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics were falsified. Soviet whaling began with the factory ship Aleut in 1933, but by 1963 the industry had a truly global reach, with seven factory fleets (some very large). Catches were driven by a state planning system that set annual production targets. The system gave bonuses and honors only when these were met or exceeded, and it frequently increased the following year’s targets to match the previous year’s production; scientific estimates of the sustainability of the resource were largely ignored. Inevitably, this system led to whale populations being rapidly reduced. Furthermore, productivity was measured in gross output (weights of whales caught), regardless of whether carcasses were sound or rotten, or whether much of the animal was unutilized. Whaling fleets employed numerous people, including women (in one case as the captain of a catcher boat). Because of relatively high salaries and the potential for bonuses, positions in the whaling industry were much sought-after. Catching and processing of whales was highly mechanized and became increasingly efficient as the industry gained more experience. In a single day, the largest factory ships could process up to 200 small sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus; 100 humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae; or 30–35 pygmy blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda. However, processing of many animals involved nothing more than stripping the carcass of blubber and then discarding the rest. Until 1952, the main product was whale oil; only later was baleen whale meat regularly utilized. Falsified data on catches were routinely submitted to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics, but the true catch and biological data were preserved for research and administrative purposes. National inspectors were present at most times, but, with occasional exceptions, they worked primarily to assist fulfillment of plan targets and routinely ignored the illegal nature of many catches. In all, during 40 years of whaling in the Antarctic, the U.S.S.R. reported 185,778 whales taken but at least 338,336 were actually killed. Data for the North Pacific are currently incomplete, but from provisional data we estimate that at least 30,000 whales were killed illegally in this ocean. Overall, we judge that, worldwide, the U.S.S.R. killed approximately 180,000 whales illegally and caused a number of population crashes. Finally, we note that Soviet illegal catches continued after 1972 despite the presence of international observers on factory fleets.

Untrawlable Bottom in Shrimp Statistical Zones of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico Fisheries Management Council tasked the National Marine Fisheries Service with determining the extent, if any, of loss oft rawlable bottom in the Gulf of Mexico based upon fishing industry concerns. There are approximately 31 million hectares in the 21 shrimp statistical zones in the Gulf, approximately 23 million hectares of waters that are <35 fathoms (where most shrimp trawling effort occurs), and approximately 11 million hectares in zones 10-21, <35f athoms, which were examined. There are 31,338 known hangs, snags, artificial reefs, hazards to navigation, oil rigs, and similar obstructions which cause trawling to be unfeasible in these zones. There are several refuge (i.e. untrawlable) areas associated with the Alabama Artificial Reefs. Conservatively assuming 1 hectare for each known obstruction, coupled with the known area of each refuge, the estimate of total untrawlable bottom in zones 10-21 less than 35 fathoms in the Gulf is 185,953 hectares, or roughly 1.7% of this total trawlable area. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of this assumption, with a range of 0.3-4.3% possible. In specific shrimp zones, untrawlable area is much less than 1% except in zones 10 (26%) and 11(2.5%), both of which possess a refuge. Other than the implementation periods of these refugia, no temporal trends were detectable with respect to the amount of untrawlable bottom.

Catch and Bycatch in the Shark Drift Gillnet Fishery off Georgia and East Florida

An observer program of the shark drift gillnet fishery off the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia was begun in 1993 to define the fishery and estimate bycatch including bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus, and sea turtles. Boats in the fishery were 12.2-19.8 m long. Nets used were 275-1,800 m long and 3.2-4.1 m deep. Stretched-mesh sizes used were 12.7-29.9 cm. Fishing trips were usually <18 h and occurred within 30 n.mi. of port. Fishing with an observer aboard occurred between Savannah, Ga., and Jacksonville, Fla., and off Cape Canaveral, Fla. Nets were set at least 3 n.mi. offshore. Numbers of boats in the fishery increased from 5 in 1993 to 11 in 1995, but total trips decreased from 185 in 1994 to 149 in 1995. During 1993-95, 48 observer trips were completed and 52 net sets were observed. No marine mammals were caught and two loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, were caught and released alive. A total of 9,270 animals (12 shark, 21 teleost, 4 ray, and 1 sea turtle species) were captured. Blacknose, Carcharhinus acronotus; Atlantic sharpnose, Rhizoprionodon terraenovae; and blacktip shark, C. limbatus), were the dominant sharks caught. King mackerel, Scomberomorus cavalIa; little tunny, Euthynnus alleteratus; and cownose ray, Rhinoptera bonasus, were the dominant bycatch species. About 8.4% of the total catch was bycatch. Of the totals, 9.4% of the sharks and 37.3% ofthe bycatch were discarded.