A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) has been used to investigate the impacts of regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on boreal summer Sahel rainfall. The study focuses on the transient response of the West African monsoon (WAM) to a sudden change in regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks. The response occurs in two distinct phases: 1) fast adjustment of the atmosphere on a time scale of days to weeks (up to 3 weeks) through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions with weak hydrological cycle changes and surface feedbacks. 2) adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface with significant local hydrological cycle changes and changes in atmospheric circulation (beyond 3 weeks). European emissions lead to an increase in shortwave (SW) scattering by increased sulphate burden, leading to a decrease in surface downward SW radiation which causes surface cooling over North Africa, a weakening of the Saharan heat low and WAM, and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. In contrast, Asian emissions lead to very little change in sulphate burden over North Africa, but they induce an adjustment of the Walker Circulation which leads again to a weakening of the WAM and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. The responses to European and Asian emissions during the second phase exhibit similar large scale patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and hydrological variables, suggesting a preferred response. The results support the idea that sulphate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Paul Renner: the art of typography

The first study, in any language, of this German typographer and type designer. Renner’s work exemplifies central themes in German culture in the first half of the twentieth century. Starting as an artist and book designer in the Munich cultural renaissance, he was an early and prominent member of the Deutscher Werkbund. In the 1920s Renner worked in Frankfurt, one of the centres of socially-engaged modernism; around this time he began work on his enduring typeface, Futura. Moving to Munich, he ran the printing school that included Jan Tschichold among its teachers. In the crisis of 1933 he was detained and then dismissed from his post. Living through the Nazi years in inner emigration, Renner emer­ged as a voice of experience and reason in postwar debates.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

Best site for embryo transfer: the upper or lower half of endometrial cavity?

BACKGROUND: the objective of the present study was to determine the importance of the site of embryo transfer (upper or lower half endometrial cavity) on implantation and clinical pregnancy rates. METHODS: A total of 400 transfers guided by ultrasound were randomly assigned to two groups according to the distance between the uterine fundus and the catheter tip at the time of embryo placement. Group I (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of <50% of the endometrial cavity length (ECL), i.e. transfer in upper half of the cavity; and group II (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of greater than or equal to50%, of the ECL, i.e. transfer in lower half of cavity. The Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test and Fisher's exact test were used where appropriate. RESULTS: the general characteristics of the study population and the main transfer cycle characteristics had an equal distribution (P>0.05) between groups I and II. No significant difference in implantation or pregnancy rates was observed between groups I and II. CONCLUSION: the implantation or pregnancy rates were similar whether the embryos were deposited in the upper or lower half of the endometrial cavity.

Latero-terminal neurorrhaphy without removal of the epineural sheath. Experimental study in rats.

Termino-lateral neurorrhaphies have been used up to the beginning of this century. After this period, they have no longer been reported. We tested the efficacy of a new type of latero-terminal neurorrhaphy and evaluated the role of the epineural sheath. A group of 10 rats had the fibular nerve sectioned and the distal ending was sutured to the lateral face of the tibial nerve without removing the epineurium. All experiments were made on the right side, the left one remaining untouched in half of the animals of each group. The other half were denervated by sectioning and inverting the endings of the fibular nerves. In this way, tibial cranial muscles were either normal or denervated in the left side and reinnervated through latero-terminal neurorrhaphy in the right side. After 7.7 months, the animals were subjected to electrophysiological tests, sacrificed, and the nerves and muscles were taken for histological exams. A response of the tibial cranial muscle was obtained in 75% of the animals. The distal ending of the fibular nerve showed an average of 498 nerve fibers. The average areas of the reinnervated tibial cranial muscles were (mu 2):841.30 for M2n and 1798.33 for M2d. We concluded that the termino-lateral neurorrhaphy was functional, conducting electrical stimuli and allowing the passage of axons from the lateral surface of a healthy nerve, to reconstitute the distal segment of a sectioned nerve. The presence of the epineurium was no impediment to axonal regeneration or to the passage of electrical stimuli.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Macroeconomic policies, sector performance and firm response: the case of Chile's textile goods market

Includes bibliography

Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

The mineralogy and chemistry of the German and Portuguese tiles used to face a historic building in the Amazon region and their natural susceptibility to tropical weathering

As proeminentes edificações da cidade de Belém foram revestidas durante o século 19 com azulejos produzidos em Portugal e Alemanha que já apresentam distintos graus de degradação. O Palacete Pinho é uma das mais importantes destas edificações e foi selecionado para se investigar a ação do clima tropical amazônico sobre a degradação destes azulejos. Para atingir estes objetivos mapearam-se os azulejos desta edificação visando identificar as modificações de origem orgânica e inorgânica e coletas de amostras para análises. Os minerais foram determinados por DRX, a composição química por métodos clássicos úmidos e MEV/SED e os micro-organismos por microscopia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães são distintos entre si. Enquanto o biscoito é composto de SiO₂ e Al₂O₃, CaO foi encontrado apenas nos Portugueses. Os baixos conteúdos de Na₂O e K₂O indicam adição de materiais para redução da temperatura de fusão. SiO₂ e PbO compõem o vidrado, já CoO e FeO foram adicionados como pigmentos. O biscoito dos azulejos Alemães é constituído de quartzo, mullita e cristobalita, ao contrário do Português com quartzo, gehlenita, diopsídio, calcita e feldspatos. Os vidrados são amorfos ao DRX. As diferenças químicas e mineralógicas entre os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães indicam que foram produzidos por matéria prima distinta, bem como processo termal. As alterações relacionadas com o intemperismo são as finas camadas de detritos (nos Alemães), manchas de oxidação, manchas escuras, descolamento do azulejo (no Português); perda de vidrado e biscoito tornando-se pulverulento como consequência do estabelecimento de Cyanophyta e bacillariophyta (Português). As distintas feições de degradação dos azulejos refletem as suas diferenças mineralógicas e químicas expostas ao clima tropical Amazônico.

FOREST ANIMAL DAMAGE CONTROL

As a nation we have gained world recognition for our ability to utilize our resources. In forestry our greatest accomplishments have been in the mechanization of harvest methods and in improvements in forest products. The renewal of this resource has been our greatest neglect. Though the end of the 19th Century marked the beginning of the conservation movement, it was not until a half century later that the force of economics through the demands of a growing population made forest re-establishment more than just a desire. Conservation in itself is a Utopian concept which requires other motivating forces to make it a reality. In the post-war years, and as late as the early 195O's, stocked land in the Pacific Northwest could be purchased for less than the cost of planting; the economic incentive was lacking. Only with sustained yield management and increased land values was there a balance in favor of true values. With greater effort placed on forest regeneration there was an increased need for methods of reducing losses to wildlife. The history of forest wildlife damage research, therefore, parallels that of forest land management; after rather austere beginnings, development became predominantly a response to economics. It was not until 1950 that the full time of one scientist was assigned to this important activity. The development of control methods for forest animal damage is a relatively new area of research. All animal life is dependent upon plants for its existence; forest wildlife is no exception. The removal of seed and foliage of undesirable plants often benefits the land managers; only when the losses or injuries are in conflict with man's interest is there damage involved. Unfortunately, the feeding activities of wildlife and the interests of the land managers are often in conflict. Few realize the breadth, scope, and subtilities associated with forest wildlife damage problems. There are not only numerous species of animals involved, but also a myriad of conditions, each combination possessing unique facets. It is a foregone conclusion that an understanding of the conditions is essential to facilitate a solution to any given problem. Though there are numerous methods of reducing animal damage, all of which have application under some situations, in this discussion emphasis will be placed on the role of chemicals and on western problems. Because of the broadness and complexity of the problem, generalizing is necessary and only brief coverage will be possible. However, an attempt will be made to discuss the use and limitations of various control methods.