On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Recovery of Sleep or Recovery of Self? A Grounded Theory Study of Residents’ Decision Making Regarding How to Spend Their Nonclinical Postcall Time

Purpose: As resident work hours policies evolve, residents’ off-duty time remains poorly understood. Despite assumptions about how residents should be using their postcall, off-duty time, there is little research on how residents actually use this time and the reasoning underpinning their activities. This study sought to understand residents’ nonclinical postcall activities when they leave the hospital, their decision-making processes, and their perspectives on the relationship between these activities and their well-being or recovery.

Method: The study took place at a Liaison Committee on Medical Education–accredited Canadian medical school from 2012 to 2014. The authors recruited a purposive and convenience sample of postgraduate year 1–5 residents from six surgical and nonsurgical specialties at three hospitals affiliated with the medical school. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, semistructured interviews were conducted, audio-taped, transcribed, anonymized, and combined with field notes. The authors analyzed interview transcripts using constant comparative analysis and performed post hoc member checking.

Results: Twenty-four residents participated. Residents characterized their predominant approach to postcall decision making as one of making trade-offs between multiple, competing, seemingly incompatible, but equally valuable, activities. Participants exhibited two different trade-off orientations: being oriented toward maintaining a normal life or toward mitigating fatigue.

Conclusions: The authors’ findings on residents’ trade-off orientations suggest a dual recovery model with postcall trade-offs motivated by the recovery of sleep or of self. This model challenges the dominant viewpoint in the current duty hours literature and suggests that the duty hours discussion must be broadened to include other recovery processes.

Supervisor Continuity or Co-Location: Which Matters in Residency Education? Findings From a Qualitative Study of Remote Supervisor Family Physicians in Australia and Canada

Purpose: Changes to health care systems andworking hours have fragmentedresidents’ clinical experiences withpotentially negative effects ontheir development as professionals.Investigation of off-site supervision,which has been implemented in isolatedrural practice, could reveal importantbut less overt components of residencyeducation. 

Method: Insights from sociocultural learningtheory and work-based learning provideda theoretical framework. In 2011–2012,16 family physicians in Australia andCanada were asked in-depth how theyremotely supervised residents’ workand learning, and for their reflectionson this experience. The verbatiminterview transcripts and researchers’memos formed the data set. Templateanalysis produced a description andinterpretation of remote supervision. 

Results: Thirteen Australian family physiciansfrom five states and one territory, andthree Canadians from one province,participated. The main themes werehow remoteness changed the dynamicsof care and supervision; the importanceof ongoing, holistic, nonhierarchical,supportive supervisory relationships; andthat residents learned “clinical courage”through responsibility for patients’ careover time. Distance required supervisorsto articulate and pass on their expertiseto residents but made monitoringdifficult. Supervisory continuityencouraged residents to build on pastexperiences and confront deficiencies. 

Conclusions: Remote supervision enabled residents todevelop as clinicians and professionals.This questions the supremacy of co-locationas an organizing principle forresidency education. Future specialists maybenefit from programs that give themongoing and increasing responsibilityfor a group of patients and supportive.

Attending Physician Variability: A Model of Four Supervisory Styles

Purpose: There is wide variability in how attending physician roles on teaching teams, including patient care and trainee learning, are enacted. This study sought to better understand variability by considering how different attendings configured and rationalized direct patient care, trainee oversight, and teaching activities. 

Method: Constructivist grounded theory guided iterative data collection and analyses. Data were interviews with 24 attending physicians from two academic centers in Ontario, Canada, in 2012. During interviews, participants heard a hypothetical presentation and reflected on it as though it were presented to their team during a typical admission case review. 

Results: Four supervisory styles were identified: direct care, empowerment, mixed practice, and minimalist. Driven by concerns for patient safety, direct care involves delegating minimal patient care responsibility to trainees. Focused on supporting trainees’ progressive independence, empowerment uses teaching and oversight strategies to ensure quality of care. In mixed practice, patient care is privileged over teaching and is adjusted on the basis of trainee competence and contextual features such as patient volume. Minimalist style involves a high degree of trust in senior residents, delegating most patient care, and teaching to them. Attendings rarely discussed their styles with the team. 

Conclusions: The model adds to the literature on variability in supervisory practice, showing that the four styles reflect different ways of responding to tensions in the role and context. This model could be refined through observational research exploring the impact of context on style development and enactment. Making supervisory styles explicit could support improvement of team competence.

Molecular markers in the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer

Although significant progress has been made in colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment within the last decade with the approval of multiple new agents, the prognosis for patients with metastatic CRC remains poor with 5-year survival rates of approximately 8%. Resistance to chemotherapy remains a major obstacle in effective CRC treatment and many patients do not receive any clinical benefit from chemotherapy. In addition, other patients will experience adverse reactions to treatment resulting in dose modifications or treatment withdrawal, which can severely reduce treatment efficacy. Currently, significant research efforts are attempting to identify reliable and validated biomarkers with which will guide clinicians to make more informed treatment decisions. Specifically, the use of molecular profiling has the potential to assist the clinician in administering the correct drug, dose, or intervention for the patient before the onset of therapy thereby selecting a treatment strategy likely to have the greatest clinical outcome while minimizing adverse events. However, until recently, personalized medicine is a paradigm that has existed more in conceptual terms than in reality with very few validated biomarkers used routinely in metastatic CRC treatment. Rapid advances in genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic technologies continues to improve our understanding of tumor biology, but the search for reliable biomarkers has turned out to be more challenging than previously anticipated with significant disparity in published literature and limited translation into routine clinical practice. Recent progress with the identification and validation of biomarkers to the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies including KRAS and possibly BRAF provide optimism that the goal of individualized treatment is within reach. This review will highlight and discuss current progress in the search for biomarkers, the challenges this emerging field presents, and the future role of biomarkers in advancing CRC treatment.

Molecular predictors of response to antiangiogenesis therapies

Angiogenesis is a crucial component of tumor growth and metastasis. Targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway represents therapeutic potentials for treating cancer. To date, 3 Food and Drug Administration-approved agents targeting angiogenesis have been developed, bevacizumab, sunitinib, and sorafenib. However, no validated biomarkers are available to identify those patients who are likely to benefit from antiangiogenesis therapy. Molecular biomarker research in antiangiogenesis inhibition is an actively growing field. Although current data are extremely promising, it is still uncertain which biomarker(s) can reliably predict their efficacy. With increasing numbers of inhibitors being developed, the need for biomarkers is more critical than ever. This review will focus on translational research that strives to identify molecular biomarkers (tissue, circulating and genomic) for approved antiangiogenesis therapies that can indicate benefit, resistance, and toxicity.

Comparative Raman Study of Carbon Nanotubes Prepared by D.C. Arc Discharge and Catalytic Methods

The Raman spectra of carbon nanotubes prepared by catalytic (C-CNT) and d.c. arc discharge (D-CNT) methods are reported. A previously unnoticed third-order Raman peak at ca. 4248 cm-1 was observed in the Raman spectrum of D-CNT. The Raman features of D-CNT and C-CNT are similar to those of highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) and active carbon, respectively. The data also suggest that the increase in disorder in D-CNT compared with HOPG is due to structural defects in D-CNT. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

Asthma control and exacerbations: two different sides of the same coin.

Purpose of review: Optimal asthma management includes both the control of asthma symptoms and reducing the risk of future asthma exacerbations. Traditionally, treatment has been adjusted largely on the basis of symptoms and lung function and for many patients, this approach delivers both excellent symptom control and reduced risk. However, the relationship between these two key components of the disease may vary between different asthmatic phenotypes and disease severities and there is increasing recognition of the need for more individualized treatment approaches.

Recent findings: A number of factors which predict exacerbation risk have been identified including demographic and behavioural features and specific inflammatory biomarkers. Type-2 cytokine-driven eosinophilic airways inflammation predisposes to frequent exacerbations and predicts response to corticosteroids, and the usefulness of sputum eosinophilia as both a marker of exacerbation risk and biomarker for adjustment of corticosteroid treatment has been established for some time. However, attempts to develop surrogate markers, which would be more straightforward to deliver in the clinic, have been challenging.

Summary: Some patients with asthma have persistent symptoms in the absence of type-2 cytokine driven-eosinophilic airways inflammation due to noncorticosteroid responsive mechanisms (T2-low disease). Composite biomarker strategies using easily measured surrogate indicators of type-2 inflammation (such as fractional exhaled nitric oxide, blood eosinophil count and serum periostin levels) may predict exacerbation risk better but it is unclear if they can be used to adjust corticosteroid treatment. Biomarkers will be used to target novel biologic treatments but additionally may be used to optimize corticosteroid treatment dose and act as prognostics for exacerbation risk and potentially other important longer term asthma outcomes.

Genomic meningococcal load in the nasopharynx of children with meningococcal disease

This study demonstrates the feasibility of using quantitative real time PCR to measure genomic bacterial load in the nasopharynx of children with invasive meningococcal disease and shows that these loads are exceptionally high (median 6.6 x 105 (Range 1.2 x 105 to 1.1 x 108) genome copies of Neisseria meningitidis per swab).

Geochronological database and classification system for age uncertainties in Neotropical pollen records.

The newly updated inventory of palaeoecological research in Latin America offers an important overview of sites available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. From the collected literature supporting this inventory, we collected all available age model metadata to create a chronological database of 5116 control points (e.g. 14C, tephra, fission track, OSL, 210Pb) from 1097 pollen records. Based on this literature review, we present a summary of chronological dating and reporting in the Neotropics. Difficulties and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Furthermore, for 234 pollen records in northwest South America, a classification system for age uncertainties is implemented based on chronologies generated with updated calibration curves. With these outcomes age models are produced for those sites without an existing chronology, alternative age models are provided for researchers interested in comparing the effects of different calibration curves and age–depth modelling software, and the importance of uncertainty assessments of chronologies is highlighted. Sample resolution and temporal uncertainty of ages are discussed for different time windows, focusing on events relevant for research on centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability. All age models and developed R scripts are publicly available through figshare, including a manual to use the scripts.

Dietary Micronutrient Intake and Micronutrient Status in Patients With Chronic Stable Heart Failure: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that patients with heart failure have a tendency to a reduced status of a number of micronutrients and that this may be associated with an adverse prognosis. A small number of studies also suggest that patients with heart failure may have reduced dietary intake of micronutrients, a possible mechanism for reduced status.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to assess dietary micronutrient intake and micronutrient status in a group of patients with heart failure.

METHODS: Dietary intake was assessed in 79 outpatients with chronic stable heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Blood concentrations of a number of micronutrients, including vitamin D, were measured in fasting blood samples, drawn at the time of food frequency questionnaire completion.

RESULTS: More than 20% of patients reported intakes less than the reference nutrient intake or recommended intake for riboflavin, vitamin D, vitamin A, calcium, magnesium, potassium, zinc, copper, selenium, and iodine. More than 5% of patients reported intakes less than the lower reference nutrient intake or minimum recommended intake for riboflavin, vitamin D, vitamin A, calcium, magnesium, potassium, zinc, selenium, and iodine. Vitamin D deficiency (plasma total 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentration <50 nmol/L) was observed in 75.6% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D deficiency was common in this group of patients with heart failure. Based on self-reported dietary intake, a substantial number of individuals may not have been consuming enough vitamin D and a modest number of individuals may not have been consuming enough riboflavin, vitamin A, calcium, magnesium, potassium, zinc, copper, selenium, or iodine to meet their dietary needs.

Psychological interventions for children and young people affected by armed conflict or political violence: a systematic literature review.

Youths exposed to armed conflict have a higher prevalence of mental health and psychosocial difficulties. Diverse interventions exist that aim to ameliorate the effect of armed conflict on the psychological and psychosocial wellbeing of conflict affected youths. However, the evidence base for the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. Using standard review methodology, this review aims to address the effectiveness of psychological interventions employed among this population. The search was performed across four databases and grey literature. Article quality was assessed using the Downs and Black Quality Checklist (1998). Where possible, studies were subjected to meta-analyses. The remaining studies were included in a narrative synthesis. Eight studies concerned non clinical populations, while nine concerned clinical populations. Review findings conclude that Group Trauma Focused-Cognitive Behavioural Therapy is effective for reducing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, depression and improving prosocial behaviour among clinical cohorts. The evidence does not suggest that interventions aimed at non clinical groups within this population are effective. Despite high quality studies, further robust trials are required to strengthen the evidence base, as a lack of replication has resulted in a limited evidence base to inform practice.

A Systematic Review of End-of-Life Visual Impairment in Open-Angle Glaucoma: An Epidemiological Autopsy

PURPOSE: Glaucoma patients are still at risk of becoming blind. It is of clinical significance to determine the risk of blindness and its causes to prevent its occurrence. This systematic review estimates the number of treated glaucoma patients with end-of-life visual impairment (VI) and blindness and the factors that are associated with this.

METHODS: A systematic literature search in relevant databases was conducted in August 2014 on end-of-life VI. A total of 2574 articles were identified, of which 5 on end-of-life VI. Several data items were extracted from the reports and presented in tables.

RESULTS: All studies had a retrospective design. A considerable number of glaucoma patients were found to be blind at the end of their life; with up to 24% unilateral and 10% bilateral blindness. The following factors were associated with blindness: (1) baseline severity of visual field loss: advanced stage of glaucoma or substantial visual field loss at the initial visit; (2) factors influencing progression: fluctuation of intraocular pressure (IOP) during treatment, presence of pseudoexfoliation, poor patient compliance, higher IOP; (3) longer time period: longer duration of disease and older age at death because of a longer life expectancy; and (4) coexistence of other ocular pathology.

CONCLUSIONS: Further prevention of blindness in glaucoma patients is needed. To reach this goal, it is important to address the risk factors for blindness identified in this review, especially those that can be modified, such as advanced disease at diagnosis, high and fluctuating IOP, and poor compliance.