Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation

The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

Synthesis and characterization of lanthanum- and yttrium-doped Fe2O3 pigments

MELO, D. M. A. et al. Synthesis and charactezarion of lanthanum and yttrium doped Fe2O3 pigments. Cerâmica, São Paulo, v. 53, p. 79-82, 2007.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Use of Sludge as Ceramic Materials

Nowadays, with increase amounts of sludge derived from the treatment of domestic sewage put pressure into research on systems for the adequate use of these materials. The aim of the present work is to study the use of sludge ash, from sintering and calcinated process, as a raw material for the ceramic industry. Using the sewage sludge ashes as ceramic raw material there will be no contamination of soil and underground water. Metals and toxic compounds like Al, Fe, Ba, Cr, Cu, Mn and Zn oxides were analyzed and characterized by X-ray fluorescence (XRF), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and plasma emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). The leached material was chemically analyzed where the integration of oxides into the ceramic matrix of sludge ash was observed. Residual decomposition was analyzed by TG, DTG and DTA curves.

Características físicas, somatotipo e desempenho de corredores de 100 e 400 metros no Rio Grande do Norte

Objective: The aim of the study was to investigate physical characteristics and to examine association between somatotype and performance in collegiate runners of 100 m and 400 m. Methods: The sample, male runners (n=39) competing at the regional level in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, had height, body mass, skinfolds, limb circumference and skeletal breadths measured. Then, the somatotype was calculated by Health-Carter method. Races (100 m and 400 m) were held to assess athletic performance. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the total sample, as well as for the 100 m and 400 m groups, and established four subgroups, named quartiles. For analysis between groups of runners (100 m x 400 m) was used Student's t test for independent samples. To examine the relationship between the race times and anthropometric variables, was used the Pearson correlation test. The somatotype dispersion distance and somatotype spatial distance were calculated among subgroups. One-way analysis of variance, the Wilcoxon test followed of Tukey post test, and correlation analysis were used with a significance level of p<0.05. Results: Somatotype with mesomorphy and ectomorphy dominance was exhibited by 100 m and 400 m athletes. Endomorphy was low in both groups, especially in 400m runners, who had more elongated body types than 100 m runners. When separately compared by athletic performance quartile, 100 m sprinters of better qualifications (G100-G1) had somatotype with dominant mesomorphy, whereas 400 m runners had somatotype with dominant ectomorphy. A significant correlation (r = -0.55, p=0.008) between calf circumference and 100 m race times was observed showing the importance of muscularity, whereas a significant correlation was found between height and 400 m race times (r = -0.53, p=0.02) showing the importance of linearity. Conclusion: Runners of 100 and 400 may show differences in physical characteristics, depending on the level of athletic performance. Anthropometric periodic evaluations may help in the training process of these athletes. However, more specific assessment parameters should be taken into account, because somatotype by itself has not power to predict whether an individual will succeed in racing speed

The effect of increased light intensity on the aggressive behavior of the Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Teleostei: Cichlidae)

Animals show behavioral and physiological changes that emerge in response to environmental perturbations (i.e., emergency life-history stages). In this study, we investigate the effects of light intensity on aggressive encounters and social stability in groups of adult male Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758). The study compared the behavior observed under low (280.75 ± 50.60 lx) and high (1394.14 ± 520.32 lx) light intensities, with 12 replicates for each treatment. Adult fish were isolated in 36-L aquaria for 96 hours, and three males were grouped for 11 days in 140-L aquaria. Agonistic behavior was video-recorded (10 min/day) on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th day to quantify aggressive interactions and social stability. There was an effect of light intensity and day of observation on the total number of agonistic behaviors performed by the fish group. Besides, increased frequency of aggressive interactions (the sum of the four sessions) by the alpha, beta and gamma fish occurred at the higher light intensity. The dominance ranks of the fish remained unchanged across the observation sessions under both the low and high light intensities. We concluded that enhanced light intensity has a cumulative effect that increases the aggressiveness of the Nile tilapia but that this effect is not sufficiently strong to destabilize the social hierarchy.

The extract of the jellyfish Phyllorhiza punctata promotes neurotoxic effects

Phyllorhiza punctata (P. punctata) is a jellyfish native to the southwestern Pacific. Herewith we present the biochemical and pharmacological characterization of an extract of the tentacles of P. punctata. The tentacles were subjected to three freezethaw cycles, homogenized, ultrafiltered, precipitated, centrifuged and lyophilized to obtain a crude extract (PHY-N). Paralytic shellfish poisoning compounds such as saxitoxin, gonyautoxin-4, tetrodotoxin and brevetoxin-2, as well as several secretory phospholipase A2 were identified. PHY-N was tested on autonomic and somatic neuromuscular preparations. In mouse vas deferens, PHY-N induced phasic contractions that reached a peak of 234 +/- 34.7% of control twitch height, which were blocked with either 100 mu m of phentolamine or 1m m of lidocaine. In mouse corpora cavernosa, PHY-N evoked a relaxation response, which was blocked with either L-NG-Nitroarginine methyl ester (0.5 m m) or 1m m of lidocaine. PHY-N (1, 3 and 10 mu g ml(-1)) induced an increase in tonus of the biventercervicis neuromuscular preparation that was blocked with pre-treatment of galamine (10 mu m). Administration of 6 mg kg(-1) PHY-N intramuscularly produced death in broilers by spastic paralysis. In conclusion, PHY-N induces nerve depolarization and nonspecifically increases neurotransmitter release. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of Merremia cissoides leaf area using the linear measures of the leaflets

O conhecimento da área foliar de plantas daninhas pode auxiliar o estudo das relações de interferência entre elas e as culturas agrícolas. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi determinar uma equação matemática que estime a área foliar de Merremia cissoides, a partir da relação entre as dimensões lineares dos limbos foliares. Folhas da espécie foram coletadas de diferentes locais na Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, medindo-se o comprimento (C), a largura máxima (L) e a área foliar de três tipos de folíolos. Foram estimadas equações lineares Y = a x (X) para cada tipo de folíolo. Houve sobreposição dos intervalos de confiança das equações dos folíolos primário e secundário, por isso considerou-se uma única equação da média desses folíolos, além da equação do folíolo principal, para caracterização da área foliar de M. cissoides. Assim, a área foliar dessa espécie pode ser estimada pelo somatório das áreas dos limbos foliares dos folíolos principal e primário + secundário, por meio da equação AFnest = 0,501 x (X) + 2,181 x (Z), em que X indica C x L do folíolo principal e Z indica C x L médios dos folíolos primário + secundário, respectivamente.

Bovine Biofertilizer and Water Regime Effects on Growth and Bulb Quality of Garlic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reproductive indices in natural nests of giant Amazon river turtles Podocnemis expansa (Schweigger, 1812) (Testudines, Podocnemididae) in the Environmental Protection Area Meanders of the Araguaia river

Realizou-se a contagem dos ovos não eclodidos, dos filhotes vivos e mortos de Podocnemis expansa oriundos de 327 ninhos naturais, localizados nas praias da Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) - Meandros do Rio Araguaia, onde se determinou a porcentagem de eclosão dos ovos (94,63%); não eclosão (5,37%); sobrevivência (94,24%) e mortalidade dos filhotes (5,76%), e a média de filhotes mortos durante os 15 dias no berçário (0,97%). A média do total de filhotes por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos e mortos divididos pelo total de ninhos, enquanto que a média do total de ovos por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos, mortos e ovos não eclodidos divididos pelo total de ninhos. Com isso, obtiveram-se os valores médios do número de filhotes vivos (88,98 ± 23,94); mortos (0,37 ± 0,93); ovos não eclodidos (5,07 ± 9,57), e total de ovos (94,42 ± 21,30). A eficiência reprodutiva da população selvagem de P. expansa pode ser afetada por muitos fatores ambientais, como temperatura, umidade e precipitação. Além disso, fatores influenciados pelo homem, como a presença de produtos químicos na água e a possibilidade de doenças infecciosas, também têm impacto significativo. Os dados dos índices reprodutivos obtidos neste estudo são indispensáveis para futuras investigações de anomalias de incubação.

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the detection of IgG antibodies against Babesia equi in horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Herdabilidade de preditores do risco cardiovascular

genetic and environmental factors contribute to the development of cardiovascular risk and that influence can be differentiated by factors characteristic of each population, age and sex. Aim: To investigate the heritability of anthropometric and biochemical markers as predictors of cardiovascular risk in men and women of different age groups, using the method of twins. Methods: A sample of 88 subjects and of these 52 children and adolescents (08-17 years old) 32 monozygotic (20 female and 12 male) and 20 dizygotic (12 female and 08 male) and 36 adults (18-28 years age) 24 monozygotic (08 female and 16 male) and 12 dizygotic (06 female and 06 male), living in the metropolitan region of Natal / RN, Brazil. Anthropometric measures were taken as the height, body mass, waist circumference (WC), sum of skinfolds (ΣDC), fat percentage CUN-BAE, BMI and conicity. Biochemical markers analyzed were: fasting glucose (GLU), total cholesterol (COL), HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides (TG). After processing the data the index of heritability (h2) = (S ² MZ) / S ² DZ (DZ S ²) X100 was applied disaggregated by sex and age. Results: The variables showed differential heritability of behavior for men and women, depending on age. The variables with the highest heritability values were ΣDC, GLU, HDL, TG, in men and BMI, WC, ΣDC, GLU, HDL-C and TG in women. And more influenced by the environment variables were: body mass, BMI, Chol, LDL-C in men; body mass and LDL-C in women. Conclusion: Differences index of heritability by gender for cardiovascular risk predictors may assist in planning specific intervention strategies according to gender and stage of life of that individual. It is from the level of environmental influence that can run interventions for changes of components related to cardiovascular risk

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the detection of IgM antibodies against Leishmania chagasi in dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of harvested mushrooms and viability of Agaricus bisporus growth using casing materials made from spent mushroom substrate

P>The present work evaluates of harvested mushroom and viability of Agaricus bisporus growth in several casing materials based on spent mushroom substrate. The experiment consisted of eight casing layer, which six were made with spent mushroom substrate. The results confirm the usefulness of reincorporating the spent substrate in new cultivation cycles as an ingredient of casing mixtures. In general, biological efficiency was high, three of the SMS based-casings surpassing the threshold value of 100 kg 100 kg-1 of compost. The high electrical conductivity of mixtures containing a large proportion of spent substrate limits the extent to which it can be used, although mixing it with other materials (such as peat) reduces these values to acceptable levels. In short, it makes economic and environmental sense to reuse spent mushroom substrate as an ingredient of alternative casing materials.