The structural and mechanical integrity of historic wood

Little is known about historic wood as it ages naturally. Instead, most studies focus on biological decay, as it is often assumed that wood remains otherwise stable with age. This PhD project was organised by Historic Scotland and the University of Glasgow to investigate the natural chemical and physical aging of wood. The natural aging of wood was a concern for Historic Scotland as traditional timber replacement is the standard form of repair used in wooden cultural heritage; replacing rotten timber with new timber of the same species. The project was set up to look at what differences could exist both chemically and physically between old and new wood, which could put unforeseen stress on the joint between them. Through Historic Scotland it was possible to work with genuine historic wood from two species, Oak and Scots pine, both from the 1500’s, rather than relying on artificial aging. Artificial aging of wood is still a debated topic, with consideration given to whether it is truly mimicking the aging process or just damaging the wood cells. The chemical stability of wood was investigated using Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) microscopy, as well as wet chemistry methods including a test for soluble sugars from the possible breakdown of the wood polymers. The physical properties assessed included using a tensile testing machine to uncover possible differences in mechanical properties. An environmental chamber was used to test the reaction to moisture of wood of different ages, as moisture is the most damaging aspect of the environment to wooden cultural objects. The project uncovered several differences, both physical and chemical, between the modern and historic wood which could affect the success of traditional ‘like for like’ repairs. Both oak and pine lost acetyl groups, over historic time, from their hemicellulose polymers. This chemical reaction releases acetic acid, which had no effect on the historic oak but was associated with reduced stiffness in historic pine, probably due to degradation of the hemicellulose polymers by acid hydrolysis. The stiffness of historic oak and pine was also reduced by decay. Visible pest decay led to loss of wood density but there was evidence that fungal decay, extending beyond what was visible, degraded the S2 layer of the pine cell walls, reducing the stiffness of the wood by depleting the cellulose microfibrils most aligned with the grain. Fungal decay of polysaccharides in pine wood left behind sugars that attracted increased levels of moisture. The degradation of essential polymers in the wood structure due to age had different impacts on the two species of wood, and raised questions concerning both the mechanism of aging of wood and the ways in which traditional repairs are implemented, especially in Scots pine. These repairs need to be done with more care and precision, especially in choosing new timber to match the old. Within this project a quantitative method of measuring the microfibril angle (MFA) of wood using polarised Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) microscopy has been developed, allowing the MFA of both new and historic pine to be measured. This provides some of the information needed for a more specific match when selecting replacement timbers for historic buildings.

Self-sealing of thermal fatigue and mechanical damage in fiber-reinforced composite materials

Fiber reinforced composite tanks provide a promising method of storage for liquid oxygen and hydrogen for aerospace applications. The inherent thermal fatigue of these vessels leads to the formation of microcracks, which allow gas phase leakage across the tank walls. In this dissertation, self-healing functionality is imparted to a structural composite to effectively seal microcracks induced by both mechanical and thermal loading cycles. Two different microencapsulated healing chemistries are investigated in woven glass fiber/epoxy and uni-weave carbon fiber/epoxy composites. Self-healing of mechanically induced damage was first studied in a room temperature cured plain weave E-glass/epoxy composite with encapsulated dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) monomer and wax protected Grubbs' catalyst healing components. A controlled amount of microcracking was introduced through cyclic indentation of opposing surfaces of the composite. The resulting damage zone was proportional to the indentation load. Healing was assessed through the use of a pressure cell apparatus to detect nitrogen flow through the thickness direction of the damaged composite. Successful healing resulted in a perfect seal, with no measurable gas flow. The effect of DCPD microcapsule size (51 um and 18 um) and concentration (0 - 12.2 wt%) on the self-sealing ability was investigated. Composite specimens with 6.5 wt% 51 um capsules sealed 67% of the time, compared to 13% for the control panels without healing components. A thermally stable, dual microcapsule healing chemistry comprised of silanol terminated poly(dimethyl siloxane) plus a crosslinking agent and a tin catalyst was employed to allow higher composite processing temperatures. The microcapsules were incorporated into a satin weave E-glass fiber/epoxy composite processed at 120C to yield a glass transition temperature of 127C. Self-sealing ability after mechanical damage was assessed for different microcapsule sizes (25 um and 42 um) and concentrations (0 - 11 vol%). Incorporating 9 vol% 42 um capsules or 11 vol% 25 um capsules into the composite matrix leads to 100% of the samples sealing. The effect of microcapsule concentration on the short beam strength, storage modulus, and glass transition temperature of the composite specimens was also investigated. The thermally stable tin catalyzed poly(dimethyl siloxane) healing chemistry was then integrated into a [0/90]s uniweave carbon fiber/epoxy composite. Thermal cycling (-196C to 35C) of these specimens lead to the formation of microcracks, over time, formed a percolating crack network from one side of the composite to the other, resulting in a gas permeable specimen. Crack damage accumulation and sample permeability was monitored with number of cycles for both self-healing and traditional non-healing composites. Crack accumulation occurred at a similar rate for all sample types tested. A 63% increase in lifetime extension was achieved for the self-healing specimens over traditional non-healing composites.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Thinning of the Goban Spur continental margin and formation of early oceanic crust: Constraints from forward modelling and inversion of marine magnetic anomalies

The deep seismic reflection profile Western Approaches Margin (WAM) cuts across the Goban Spur continental margin, located southwest of Ireland. This non-volcanic margin is characterized by a few tilted blocks parallel to the margin. A volcanic sill has been emplaced on the westernmost tilted block. The shape of the eastern part of this sill is known from seismic data, but neither seismic nor gravity data allow a precise determination of the extent and shape of the volcanic body at depth. Forward modelling and inversion of magnetic data constrain the shape of this volcanic sill and the location of the ocean-continent transition. The volcanic body thickens towards the ocean, and seems to be in direct contact with the oceanic crust. In the contact zone, the volcanic body and the oceanic magnetic layer display approximately the same thickness. The oceanic magnetic layer is anomalously thick immediately west of the volcanic body, and gradually thins to reach more typical values 40 km further to the west. The volcanic sill would therefore represent the very first formation of oceanic crust, just before or at the continental break-up. The ocean-continent transition is limited to a zone 15 km wide. The continental magnetic layer seems to thin gradually oceanwards, as does the continental crust, but no simple relation is observed between their respective thinnings.

Transition to Product Service Systems: methodology based on scenarios identification, modelling and evaluation

Part 4: Transition Towards Product-Service Systems

Modelling and analysing human behaviour in a department store using discrete event and agent based simulation

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a very popular simulation technique in Operational Research. Recently, there has been the emergence of another technique, namely Agent Based Simulation (ABS). Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found less that focuses on exploring the capabilities of both in tackling human behaviour issues. In order to understand the gap between these two simulation techniques, therefore, our aim is to understand the distinctions between DES and ABS models with the real world phenomenon in modelling and simulating human behaviour. In achieving the aim, we have carried out a case study at a department store. Both DES and ABS models will be compared using the same problem domain which is concerning on management policy in a fitting room. The behaviour of staffs while working and customers’ satisfaction will be modelled for both models behaviour understanding.

Modelling and analysis of planar cell polarity

Planar cell polarity (PCP) occurs in the epithelia of many animals and can lead to the alignment of hairs, bristles and feathers; physiologically, it can organise ciliary beating. Here we present two approaches to modelling this phenomenon. The aim is to discover the basic mechanisms that drive PCP, while keeping the models mathematically tractable. We present a feedback and diffusion model, in which adjacent cell sides of neighbouring cells are coupled by a negative feedback loop and diffusion acts within the cell. This approach can give rise to polarity, but also to period two patterns. Polarisation arises via an instability provided a sufficiently strong feedback and sufficiently weak diffusion. Moreover, we discuss a conservative model in which proteins within a cell are redistributed depending on the amount of proteins in the neighbouring cells, coupled with intracellular diffusion. In this case polarity can arise from weakly polarised initial conditions or via a wave provided the diffusion is weak enough. Both models can overcome small anomalies in the initial conditions. Furthermore, the range of the effects of groups of cells with different properties than the surrounding cells depends on the strength of the initial global cue and the intracellular diffusion.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Frequency and molecular characterisation of Entamoeba histolytica , Entamoeba dispar , Entamoeba moshkovskii , and Entamoeba hartmanni in the context of water scarcity in northeastern Brazil

This study aimed to estimate the frequency, associated factors, and molecular characterisation of Entamoeba histolytica , Entamoeba dispar, Entamoeba moshkovskii , and Entamoeba hartmanni infections. We performed a survey (n = 213 subjects) to obtain parasitological, sanitation, and sociodemographic data. Faecal samples were processed through flotation and centrifugation methods. E. histolytica, E. dispar, E. moshkovskii, and E. hartmanni were identified by nested-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The overall prevalence of infection was 22/213 (10.3%). The infection rate among subjects who drink rainwater collected from roofs in tanks was higher than the rate in subjects who drink desalinated water pumped from wells; similarly, the infection rate among subjects who practice open defecation was significantly higher than that of subjects with latrines. Out of the 22 samples positive for morphologically indistinguishable Entamoeba species, the differentiation by PCR was successful for 21. The species distribution was as follows: 57.1% to E. dispar, 23.8% to E. histolytica, 14.3% to E. histolytica and E. dispar, and 4.8% E. dispar and E. hartmanni. These data suggest a high prevalence of asymptomatic infection by the group of morphologically indistinguishable Entamoeba histolytica/dispar/moshkovskii complex and E. hartmanni species. In this context of water scarcity, the sanitary and socioenvironmental characteristics of the region appear to favour transmission.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach

Multi-agent systems offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between people management practices on the shop-floor and retail performance. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that using an agent-based approach offers great potential for improving organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked closely with one of the UK’s top ten retailers to collect data and build an understanding of shop-floor operations and the key actors in a department (customers, staff, and managers). Based on this case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch agent-based simulation model where we have focused on how we can simulate the effects of people management practices on customer satisfaction and sales. In our experiments we have looked at employee development and cashier empowerment as two examples of shop floor management practices. In this paper we describe the underlying conceptual ideas and the features of our simulation model. We present a selection of experiments we have conducted in order to validate our simulation model and to show its potential for answering “what-if” questions in a retail context. We also introduce a novel performance measure which we have created to quantify customers’ satisfaction with service, based on their individual shopping experiences.