Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization. .

Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40

Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40

Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models

A combination of satellite data, reanalysis products and climate models are combined to monitor changes in water vapour, clear-sky radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation over the period 1979-2006. Climate models are able to simulate observed increases in column integrated water vapour (CWV) with surface temperature (Ts) over the ocean. Changes in the observing system lead to spurious variability in water vapour and clear-sky longwave radiation in reanalysis products. Nevertheless all products considered exhibit a robust increase in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling from the atmosphere to the surface; clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere is found to increase with Ts at the rate of ~4 Wm-2 K-1 over tropical ocean regions of mean descending vertical motion. Precipitation (P) is tightly coupled to atmospheric radiative cooling rates and this implies an increase in P with warming at a slower rate than the observed increases in CWV. Since convective precipitation depends on moisture convergence, the above implies enhanced precipitation over convective regions and reduced precipitation over convectively suppressed regimes. To quantify this response, observed and simulated changes in precipitation rate are analysed separately over regions of mean ascending and descending vertical motion over the tropics. The observed response is found to be substantially larger than the model simulations and climate change projections. It is currently not clear whether this is due to deficiencies in model parametrizations or errors in satellite retrievals.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

Intercomparison of radiative forcing calculations of stratospheric water vapour and contrails

Seven groups have participated in an intercomparison study of calculations of radiative forcing (RF) due to stratospheric water vapour (SWV) and contrails. A combination of detailed radiative transfer schemes and codes for global-scale calculations have been used, as well as a combination of idealized simulations and more realistic global-scale changes in stratospheric water vapour and contrails. Detailed line-by-line codes agree within about 15 % for longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) RF, except in one case where the difference is 30 %. Since the LW and SW RF due to contrails and SWV changes are of opposite sign, the differences between the models seen in the individual LW and SW components can be either compensated or strengthened in the net RF, and thus in relative terms uncertainties are much larger for the net RF. Some of the models used for global-scale simulations of changes in SWV and contrails differ substantially in RF from the more detailed radiative transfer schemes. For the global-scale calculations we use a method of weighting the results to calculate a best estimate based on their performance compared to the more detailed radiative transfer schemes in the idealized simulations.

Dust production and the release of iron oxides resulting from the aeolian abrasion of natural dune sands

Global dust trajectories indicate that significant quantities of aeolian-transported iron oxides originate in contemporary dryland areas. One potential source is the iron-rich clay coatings that characterize many sand-sized particles in desert dunefields. This paper uses laboratory experiments to determine the rate at which these coatings can be removed from dune sands by aeolian abrasion. The coatings impart a red colour to the grains to which previous researchers have assigned variable geomorphological significance. The quantities or iron removed during a 120 hour abrasion experiment are small (99 mg kg(-1)) and difficult to detect by eye; however, high resolution spectroscopy clearly indicates that ferric oxides are released during abrasion and the reflectance of the particles alters. One of the products of aeolian abrasion is fine particles (<10 mum diameter) with the potential for long distance transport. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Competition in tree row agroforestry systems. 3. Soil water distribution and dynamics

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that soil water content would vary spatially with distance from a tree row and that the effect would differ according to tree species. A field study was conducted on a kaolinitic Oxisol in the sub-humid highlands of western Kenya to compare soil water distribution and dynamics in a maize monoculture with that under maize (Zea mays L.) intercropped with a 3-year-old tree row of Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. Ex R. Br. (grevillea) and hedgerow of Senna spectabilis DC. (senna). Soil water content was measured at weekly intervals during one cropping season using a neutron probe. Measurements were made from 20 cm to a depth of 225 cm at distances of 75, 150, 300 and 525 cm from the tree rows. The amount of water stored was greater under the sole maize crop than the agroforestry systems, especially the grevillea-maize system. Stored soil water in the grevillea-maize system increased with increasing distance from the tree row but in the senna-maize system, it decreased between 75 and 300 cm from the hedgerow. Soil water content increased least and more slowly early in the season in the grevillea-maize system, and drying was also evident as the frequency of rain declined. Soil water content at the end of the cropping season was similar to that at the start of the season in the grevillea-maize system, but about 50 and 80 mm greater in the senna-maize and sole maize systems, respectively. The seasonal water balance showed there was 140 mm, of drainage from the sole maize system. A similar amount was lost from the agroforestry systems (about 160 mm in the grevillea-maize system and 145 mm in the senna-maize system) through drainage or tree uptake. The possible benefits of reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration close to a tree row were not evident in the grevillea-maize system, but appeared to greatly compensate for water uptake losses in the senna-maize system. Grevillea, managed as a tree row, reduced stored soil water to a greater extent than senna, managed as a hedgerow.

Water quality and ecology of the River Lee: mass balance and a review of temporal and spatial data

A regional overview of the water quality and ecology of the River Lee catchment is presented. Specifically, data describing the chemical, microbiological and macrobiological water quality and fisheries communities have been analysed, based on a division into river, sewage treatment works, fish-farm, lake and industrial samples. Nutrient enrichment and the highest concentrations of metals and micro-organics were found in the urbanised, lower reaches of the Lee and in the Lee Navigation. Average annual concentrations of metals were generally within environmental quality standards although, oil many occasions, concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc were in excess of the standards. Various organic substances (used as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chlorination by-products and industrial solvents) were widely detected in the Lee system. Concentrations of ten micro-organic substances were observed in excess of their environmental quality standards, though not in terms of annual averages. Sewage treatment works were the principal point source input of nutrients. metals and micro-organic determinands to the catchment. Diffuse nitrogen sources contributed approximately 60% and 27% of the in-stream load in the upper and lower Lee respectively, whereas approximately 60% and 20% of the in-stream phosphorus load was derived from diffuse sources in the upper and lower Lee. For metals, the most significant source was the urban runoff from North London. In reaches less affected by effluent discharges, diffuse runoff from urban and agricultural areas dominated trends. Flig-h microbiological content, observed in the River Lee particularly in urbanised reaches, was far in excess of the EC Bathing Water Directive standards. Water quality issues and degraded habitat in the lower reaches of the Lee have led to impoverished aquatic fauna but, within the mid-catchment reaches and upper agricultural tributaries, less nutrient enrichment and channel alteration has permitted more diverse aquatic fauna.

REMOTE SENSING OF AEOLIAN DUST PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION

Airborne dust is of concern due to hazards in the localities affected by erosion, transport and deposition, but it is also of global concern due to uncertainties over its role in radiative forcing of climate. In order to model the environmental impact of dust, we need a better knowledge of sources and transport processes. Satellite remote sensing has been instrumental in providing this knowledge, through long time series of observations of atmospheric dust transport. Three remote sensing methodologies have been used, and are reviewed briefly in this paper. Firstly the use of observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), secondly the use of the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) from Meterosat infrared data, thirdly the use of MODIS images from the rapid response system. These data have highlighted the major global sources of dust, mist of which are associated with endoreic drainage basins in deserts, which held lakes during Quaternary humid climate phases, and identified the Bodele Depression in Tchad as the dustiest place on Earth.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.