Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Simulación de fluidos inmiscibles con el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM)

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centro Internacional de Métodos Computacionales en Ingeniería (CIMEC), Argentina, entre febrero y abril del 2007. La simulación numérica de problemas de mezclas mediante el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) es el marco de estudio de una futura tesis doctoral. Éste es un método desarrollado conjuntamente por el CIMEC y el Centre Internacional de Mètodos Numèrics en l'Enginyeria (CIMNE-UPC), basado en la resolución de las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes en formulación Lagrangiana. El mallador ha sido implementado y desarrollado por Dr. Nestor Calvo, investigador del CIMEC. El desarrollo del módulo de cálculo corresponde al trabajo de tesis de la beneficiaria. La correcta interacción entre ambas partes es fundamental para obtener resultados válidos. En esta memoria se explican los principales aspectos del mallador que fueron modificados (criterios de refinamiento geométrico) y los cambios introducidos en el módulo de cálculo (librería PETSc, algoritmo predictor-corrector) durante la estancia en el CIMEC. Por último, se muestran los resultados obtenidos en un problema de dos fluidos inmiscibles con transferencia de calor.

Kangaroo mother care diminishes pain from heel lance in very preterm neonates: a crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin-to-skin contact, or kangaroo mother care (KMC) has been shown to be efficacious in diminishing pain response to heel lance in full term and moderately preterm neonates. The purpose of this study was to determine if KMC would also be efficacious in very preterm neonates. METHODS: Preterm neonates (n = 61) between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks gestational age in three Level III NICU's in Canada comprised the sample. A single-blind randomized crossover design was employed. In the experimental condition, the infant was held in KMC for 15 minutes prior to and throughout heel lance procedure. In the control condition, the infant was in prone position swaddled in a blanket in the incubator. The primary outcome was the Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP), which is comprised of three facial actions, maximum heart rate, minimum oxygen saturation levels from baseline in 30-second blocks from heel lance. The secondary outcome was time to recover, defined as heart rate return to baseline. Continuous video, heart rate and oxygen saturation monitoring were recorded with event markers during the procedure and were subsequently analyzed. Repeated measures analysis-of-variance was employed to generate results. RESULTS: PIPP scores at 90 seconds post lance were significantly lower in the KMC condition (8.871 (95%CI 7.852-9.889) versus 10.677 (95%CI 9.563-11.792) p < .001) and non-significant mean differences ranging from 1.2 to1.8. favoring KMC condition at 30, 60 and 120 seconds. Time to recovery was significantly shorter, by a minute(123 seconds (95%CI 103-142) versus 193 seconds (95%CI 158-227). Facial actions were highly significantly lower across all points in time reaching a two-fold difference by 120 seconds post-lance and heart rate was significantly lower across the first 90 seconds in the KMC condition. CONCLUSION: Very preterm neonates appear to have endogenous mechanisms elicited through skin-to-skin maternal contact that decrease pain response, but not as powerfully as in older preterm neonates. The shorter recovery time in KMC is clinically important in helping maintain homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Current Controlled Trials) ISRCTN63551708.

Innovative method for carbon dioxide determination in human postmortem cardiac gas samples using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and stable labeled isotope as internal standard.

A novel approach to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) in gaseous samples, based on a precise and accurate quantification by (13)CO2 internal standard generated in situ is presented. The main goal of this study was to provide an innovative headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS) method applicable in the routine determination of CO2. The main drawback of the GC methods discussed in the literature for CO2 measurement is the lack of a specific internal standard necessary to perform quantification. CO2 measurement is still quantified by external calibration without taking into account analytical problems which can often occur considering gaseous samples. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate in situ an internal labeled standard gas ((13)CO2) on the basis of the stoichiometric formation of CO2 by the reaction of hydrochloric acid (HCl) with sodium hydrogen carbonate (NaH(13)CO3). This method allows a precise measurement of CO2 concentration and was validated on various human postmortem gas samples in order to study its efficiency.

Modified 'dumbbell' technique: a simple and intuitive method to position balloon-expandable stent valves.

Intraoperative cardiac imaging plays a key role during transcatheter aortic valve replacement. In recent years, new techniques and new tools for improved image quality and virtual navigation have been proposed, in order to simplify and standardize stent valve positioning and implantation. But routine performance of the new techniques may require major economic investments or specific knowledge and skills and, for this reason, they may not be accessible to the majority of cardiac centres involved in transcatheter valve replacement projects. Additionally, they still require injections of contrast medium to obtain computed images. Therefore, we have developed and describe here a very simple and intuitive method of positioning balloon-expandable stent valves, which represents the evolution of the 'dumbbell' technique for echocardiography-guided transcatheter valve replacement without angiography. This method, based on the partial inflation of the balloon catheter during positioning, traps the crimped valve in the aortic valve orifice and, consequently, very near to the ideal landing zone. It does not require specific echocardiographic knowledge; it does not require angiographies that increase the risk of postoperative kidney failure in elderly patients, and it can be also performed in centres not equipped with a hybrid operating room.

(No)competition in the Spanish retailing gasoline market: a variance filter approach

Various methodologies in economic literature have been used to analyse the international hydrocarbon retail sector. Nevertheless at a Spanish level these studies are much more recent and most conclude that generally there is no effective competition present in this market, regardless of the approach used. In this paper, in order to analyse the price levels in the Spanish petrol market, our starting hypothesis is that in uncompetitive markets the prices are higher and the standard deviation is lower. We use weekly retail petrol price data from the ten biggest Spanish cities, and apply Markov chains to fill the missing values for petrol 95 and diesel, and we also employ a variance filter. We conclude that this market demonstrates reduced price dispersion, regardless of brand or city.

Serological diagnosis of dengue by an Elisa inhibition method (EIM)

An ELISA Inhibition Method (EIM) was proposed for the serologic diagnosis of dengue, comparing its results with the Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) and the IgM capture-ELISA (MAC-ELISA). Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed according to sensitivity, specificity, performance and usefulness. As a conclusion we recommend the complementary inclusion of the EIM and MAC-ELISA substituting the HI for laboratories engaged in the diagnosis and surveillance of dengue.

Toxoplasma gondii: a rapid method for the isolation of pure tachyzoites: preliminary characterization of its genome

A rapid and simple technique for the purification of Toxoplasma gondii tachyzoites was developed. Highly purified parasites were obtained from the peritoneal exudates of infected mice by means of two consecutive discontinous sucrose gradients run at low speed (10,000xg, 30 min). Parasites obtained by this method conserved its biological activity. Hybridizations tudies with DNA from healthy mice and from purified tachyzoites preparations demonstrated that Toxoplasma gondii tachyzoites DNA could be obtained with better than 90 per cents purity. Preliminary studies with DNA endonucleases showed the presence in the tachyzoites genome of highly repetitives sequences.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

The management of iron deficiency in inflammatory bowel disease--an online tool developed by the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is a common and undertreated problem in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). AIM: To develop an online tool to support treatment choice at the patient-specific level. METHODS: Using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RUAM), a European expert panel assessed the appropriateness of treatment regimens for a variety of clinical scenarios in patients with non-anaemic iron deficiency (NAID) and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA). Treatment options included adjustment of IBD medication only, oral iron supplementation, high-/low-dose intravenous (IV) regimens, IV iron plus erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA), and blood transfusion. The panel process consisted of two individual rating rounds (1148 treatment indications; 9-point scale) and three plenary discussion meetings. RESULTS: The panel reached agreement on 71% of treatment indications. 'No treatment' was never considered appropriate, and repeat treatment after previous failure was generally discouraged. For 98% of scenarios, at least one treatment was appropriate. Adjustment of IBD medication was deemed appropriate in all patients with active disease. Use of oral iron was mainly considered an option in NAID and mildly anaemic patients without disease activity. IV regimens were often judged appropriate, with high-dose IV iron being the preferred option in 77% of IDA scenarios. Blood transfusion and IV+ESA were indicated in exceptional cases only. CONCLUSIONS: The RUAM revealed high agreement amongst experts on the management of iron deficiency in patients with IBD. High-dose IV iron was more often considered appropriate than other options. To facilitate dissemination of the recommendations, panel outcomes were embedded in an online tool, accessible via http://ferroscope.com/.

Multilayer perceptron with local constraint as an emerging method in spatial data analysis

The use of Geographic Information Systems has revolutionalized the handling and the visualization of geo-referenced data and has underlined the critic role of spatial analysis. The usual tools for such a purpose are geostatistics which are widely used in Earth science. Geostatistics are based upon several hypothesis which are not always verified in practice. On the other hand, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) a priori can be used without special assumptions and are known to be flexible. This paper proposes to discuss the application of ANN in the case of the interpolation of a geo-referenced variable.

IQRray, a new method for Affymetrix microarray quality control, and the homologous organ conservation score, a new benchmark method for quality control metrics.

MOTIVATION: Microarray results accumulated in public repositories are widely reused in meta-analytical studies and secondary databases. The quality of the data obtained with this technology varies from experiment to experiment, and an efficient method for quality assessment is necessary to ensure their reliability. RESULTS: The lack of a good benchmark has hampered evaluation of existing methods for quality control. In this study, we propose a new independent quality metric that is based on evolutionary conservation of expression profiles. We show, using 11 large organ-specific datasets, that IQRray, a new quality metrics developed by us, exhibits the highest correlation with this reference metric, among 14 metrics tested. IQRray outperforms other methods in identification of poor quality arrays in datasets composed of arrays from many independent experiments. In contrast, the performance of methods designed for detecting outliers in a single experiment like Normalized Unscaled Standard Error and Relative Log Expression was low because of the inability of these methods to detect datasets containing only low-quality arrays and because the scores cannot be directly compared between experiments. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R implementation of IQRray is available at: ftp://lausanne.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/Bgee/general/IQRray.R. CONTACT: Marta.Rosikiewicz@unil.ch SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.