Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

A Quantitative Model for Decomposing & Assessing the Value for the Customer

The research presented in this paper proposes a novel quantitative model for decomposing and assessing the Value for the Customer. The proposed approach builds on the different dimensions of the Value Network analysis proposed by Verna Allee having as background the concept of Value for the Customer proposed by Woodall. In this context, the Value for the Customer is modelled as a relationship established between the exchanged deliverables and a combination of tangible and intangible assets projected into their endogenous or exogenous dimensions. The Value Network Analysis of the deliverables exchange enables an in-depth understanding of this frontier and the implicit modelling of co-creation scenarios. The proposed Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer combines several concepts: from the marketing area we have the concept of Value for the Customer; from the area of intellectual capital the concept of Value Network Analysis; from the collaborative networks area we have the perspective of the enterprise life cycle and the endogenous and exogenous perspectives; at last, the proposed model is supported by a mathematical formal description that stems from the area of Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The whole concept is illustrated in the context of a case study of an enterprise in the footwear industry (Pontechem). The merits of this approach seem evident from the contact with Pontechem as it provides a structured approach for the enterprises to assess the adequacy of their value proposition to the client/customer needs and how these relate to their endogenous and/or exogenous tangible or intangible assets. The proposed model, as a tool, may therefore be a useful instrument in supporting the commercialisation of new products and/or services.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Couch & Brunch: The breakfast chain business model

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Business model: What should be the strategy used by Smart Galp to implement and potentiate its value proposition in the Portuguese market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

How do current term structure model behave beyond the last liquid point?: A comparison of the DNS and Smith-Wilson methods

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance from Maastricht University and NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

A description of the Australian early psychosis intervention model and a proposal to establish a Pilot Early Intervention Program in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolívia

RESUMO: Em 2011, a Associação Psiquiátrica Mundial lançou um programa de bolsas de investigação para psiquiatras em início de carreira a partir de países de renda baixa ou média-baixa, no âmbito deste programa, o autor foi selecionado para uma bolsa de pesquisa no Centre for Youth Mental Health/Orygen Youth Health Research Centre da Universidade de Melbourne. Orygen, é a principal organização de pesquisa e tradução do conhecimento do mundo com foco em problemas de saúde mental em pessoas jovens. O estágio foi baseado em Prevenção e Intervenção Precoce Psychosis Centre (EPPIC), que faz parte do Orygen. EPPIC fornece programa de tratamento abrangente e integrada, baseada na comunidade para o primeiro episódio de psicose. Esta dissertação descreve o modelo EPPIC, e seus componentes essenciais e fatores que são necessários para uma implementação de serviço direito. Além disso, uma proposta de criação de um programa-piloto de intervenção psicose precoce é discutido. Este programa inclui um programa de extensão inovadora que combina princípios comerciais sólidos, com metas sociais, a fim de combater especificamente a maior barreira para o tratamento da psicose precoce na Bolívia: o estigma da doença mental. Ao utilizar uma equipe de tratamento móvel, multidisciplinar, que enfatiza os papéis dos gerentes do caso treinados focada em fornecer indivíduo intensiva e apoio familiar no lar, este programa irá prestar cuidados culturalmente apropriados que irá alavancar contribuições de um suprimento limitado de psiquiatras e mudar longe da dependência um sistema médico fragmentado. ---------------------------- ABSTRACT: In 2011, the World Psychiatric Association launched a programme of research fellowships for early-career psychiatrists from low- or lower-middle income countries, within this programme, the author was selected to a research fellowship at the Centre for Youth Mental Health/Orygen Youth Health Research Centre at University of Melbourne. Orygen, is the world’s leading research and knowledge translation organization focusing on mental ill-health in young people. The traineeship was based on Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC), which is part of Orygen. EPPIC provides comprehensive, integrated, community-based treatment program for first-episode psychosis. This dissertation describes the EPPIC model, and its core components and factors which are necessary to a right service implementation. Additionally, a proposal to establish a pilot early psychosis intervention programme is discussed. This programme includes an innovative outreach programme that combines sound business principals with social goals in order to specifically target the largest barrier to early psychosis treatment in Bolivia: the stigma of mental illness. By utilizing a mobile, multidisciplinary treatment team that emphasizes the roles of trained case managers focused on providing intensive individual and family support in the home, this programme will provide culturally appropriate care that will leverage contributions from a limited supply of psychiatrists and shift dependence away from a fragmented medical system.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, and failure modes for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, failure modes and slip information of the tensile steel bars for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

Validation study of an automated wrist monitor, omron model HEM-608, compared with the standard methods for blood pressure measurement

OBJECTIVE - The aim of our study was to assess the profile of a wrist monitor, the Omron Model HEM-608, compared with the indirect method for blood pressure measurement. METHODS - Our study population consisted of 100 subjects, 29 being normotensive and 71 being hypertensive. Participants had their blood pressure checked 8 times with alternate techniques, 4 by the indirect method and 4 with the Omron wrist monitor. The validation criteria used to test this device were based on the internationally recognized protocols. RESULTS - Our data showed that the Omron HEM-608 reached a classification B for systolic and A for diastolic blood pressure, according to the one protocol. The mean differences between blood pressure values obtained with each of the methods were -2.3 +7.9mmHg for systolic and 0.97+5.5mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. Therefore, we considered this type of device approved according to the criteria selected. CONCLUSION - Our study leads us to conclude that this wrist monitor is not only easy to use, but also produces results very similar to those obtained by the standard indirect method.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar