Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

An investigation of the existing situation and trends in building energy efficiency management in China

According to the Chinese State Council's "Building Energy Efficiency Management Ordinance", a large-scale investigation of energy efficiency (EE) in buildings in contemporary China has been carried out in 22 provincial capitals and major cities in China. The aim of this project is to provide reliable information for drawing up the "Decision on reinforcing building energy efficiency" by the Ministry of Construction of China. The surveyed organizations include government departments, research institutions, property developers, design institutions, construction companies, construction consultancy services companies, facility management departments, financial institutions and those which relate to the business of building energy efficiency. In addition, representatives of the media and residents were also involved. A detailed analysis of the results of the investigation concerning aspects of the cur-rent situation and trends in building energy consumption, energy efficiency strategy and the implementation of energy efficiency measures has been conducted. The investigation supplies essential information to formulate the market entrance policy for new buildings and the refurbishment policy for existing buildings to encourage the development of energy efficient technology.

Developmental trends in lexical diversity.

This article discusses issues in measuring lexical diversity, before outlining an approach based on mathematical modelling that produces a measure, D, designed to address these problems. The procedure for obtaining values for D directly from transcripts using software (vocd) is introduced, and then applied to thirty-two children from the Bristol Study of Language Development (Wells 1985) at ten different ages. A significant developmental trend is shown for D and an indication is given of the average scores and ranges to be expected between the ages of 18 and 42 months and at 5 years for these L1 English speakers. The meaning attributable to further ranges of values for D is illustrated by analysing the lexical diversity of academic writing, and its wider application is demonstrated with examples from specific language impairment, morphological development, and foreign/second language learning.

Polymer-drug conjugates: current status and future trends

Polymer conjugates are nano-sized, multicomponent constructs already in the clinic as anticancer compounds, both as single agents or as elements of combinations. They have the potential to improve pharmacological therapy of a variety of solid tumors. Polymer-drug conjugation promotes passive tumor targeting by the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect and allows for lysosomotropic drug delivery following endocytic capture. In the first part of this review, we analyze the promising results arising from clinical trials of polymer-bound chemotherapy. The experience gained on these studies provides the basis for the development of a more sophisticated second-generation of polymer conjugates. However, many challenges still lay ahead providing scope to develop and refine this field. The "technology platform'' of polymer therapeutics allows the development of both new and exciting polymeric materials, the incorporation of novel bioactive agents and combinations thereof to address recent advances in drug therapy. The rational design of polymer drug conjugates is expected to realize the true potential of these "nanomedicines".

Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect themaintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystemstability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends