Multirating decision model validation: the relevance of the quality of the securitization issues

Rating enables the information asymmetry existing in the issuer-investor relationship to be reduced, particularly for issues with a high degree of complexity, as is the case of securitizations. However, there may be a serious conflict of interest between the issuer’s choice and remuneration of the agency and the credit rating awarded, resulting in lower quality and information power of the published rating. In this paper, we propose an explicative model of the number of ratings requested, by analyzing the relevance of the number of ratings to measure the reliability, where multirating is shown to be associated to the quality, size, liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry relating to the issue. Thus, we consider that the regulatory changes that foster the widespread publication of simultaneous ratings could help to alleviate the problem of rating model arbitrage and the crisis of confidence in credit ratings in general and in the securitization issues, in particular.

Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

National perspectives on climate change adaptation: A panel discussion of climate change adaptation efforts in diverse coastal regions of the United States

Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

The Threatened Status of Steller Sea Lions, Eumetopias jubatus, under the Endangered Species Act: Effects on Alaska Groundfish Fisheries Management

In April 1990, the Steller sea lion, Eumetopias jubatus, was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act by emergency action. Competitive interactions with the billion-dollar Alaska commercial groundfish fisheries have been suggested as one of the possible contributing factors to the Steller sea lion population decline. Since the listing, fisheries managers have attempted to address the potential impacts of the groundfish fisheries on Steller sea lion recovery. In this paper, we review pertinent Federal legislation, biological information on the Steller sea lion decline, changes in the Alaska trawl fishery for walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, since the late 1970's, andpossible interactions between fisheries and sea lions. Using three cases, we illustrate how the listing of Steller sea lions has affected Alaska groundfish fisheries through: I) actions taken at the time of listing designed to limit the potential for directhuman-related sea lion mortality, 2) actions addressing spatial and temporal separation of fisheries from sea lions, and 3) introduction of risk-adverse stock assessment methodologies and Steller sea lion conservation considerations directly in the annual quota-setting process. This discussion shows some of the ways that North Pacific groundfish resource managers have begun to explicitly consider the conservation ofmarine mammal and other nontarget species.

Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

The design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the Replicated Modular Estuarine Mesocosm

Perhaps the most difficult job of the ecotoxicologist is extrapolating data calculated from laboratory experiments with high precision and accuracy into the real world of highly-dynamics aquatic environments. The establishment of baseline laboratory toxicity testing data for individual compounds and ecologically important and field studies serve as a precursor to ecosystem level studies needed for ecological risk assessment. The first stage in the field portion of risk assessment is the determination of actual environmental concentrations of the contaminant being studied and matching those concentrations with laboratory toxicity tests. Risk estimates can be produced via risk quotients that would determine the probability that adverse effects may occur. In this first stage of risk assessment, environmental realism is often not achieved. This is due, in part, to the fact that single-species laboratory toxicity tests, while highly controlled, do not account for the complex interactions (Chemical, physical, and biological) that take place in the natural environment. By controlling as many variables in the laboratory as possible, an experiment can be produced in such a fashion that real effects from a compound can be determined for a particular test organism. This type of approach obviously makes comparison with real world data most difficult. Conversely, field oriented studies fall short in the interpretation of ecological risk assessment because of low statistical power, lack of adequate replicaiton, and the enormous amount of time and money needed to perform such studies. Unlike a controlled laboratory bioassay, many other stressors other than the chemical compound in question affect organisms in the environment. These stressors range from natural occurrences (such as changes in temperature, salinity, and community interactions) to other confounding anthropogenic inputs. Therefore, an improved aquatic toxicity test that will enhance environmental realism and increase the accuracy of future ecotoxicological risk assessments is needed.

Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples

This publication is based on materials covered and outputs generated during the Workshop on Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools for Aquaculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was jointly held by WorldFish and FAO in Siavonga, Zambia on 28 June - 2 July 2010. The workshop was delivered as a training exercise to 17 participants from seven sub-Saharan countries and was designed to highlight current methodologies and tools available for environmental risk analysis in aquaculture development. A key focus of the workshop was to encourage participants to consider hypothetical but realistic scenarios and to discuss issues relevant to evaluating the environmental risks of a given activity or scenario. This publication presents selected scenarios from the workshop and the outcomes of the deliberative process as developed by the participants. This publication is factual but not comprehensive, therefore any statements or estimations of risk do not represent the actual risks arising from the described scenario. It is intended to serve as an easily readable introduction to risk analysis, highlighting worked examples that will provide guidance on how a risk analysis may be approached in a similar situation.

Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC): introducing a novel technique.

BACKGROUND: After investing significant amounts of time and money in conducting formal risk assessments, such as root cause analysis (RCA) or failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare workers are left to their own devices in generating high-quality risk control options. They often experience difficulty in doing so, and tend toward an overreliance on administrative controls (the weakest category in the hierarchy of risk controls). This has important implications for patient safety and the cost effectiveness of risk management operations. This paper describes a before and after pilot study of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) technique, a novel tool to improve the quality of the risk control options generation process. OUTCOME MEASURES: The quantity, quality (using the three-tiered hierarchy of risk controls), variety, and novelty of risk controls generated. RESULTS: Use of the GO-ARC technique was associated with improvement on all measures. CONCLUSIONS: While this pilot study has some notable limitations, it appears that the GO-ARC technique improved the risk control options generation process. Further research is needed to confirm this finding. It is also important to note that improved risk control options are a necessary, but not sufficient, step toward the implementation of more robust risk controls.

The status and causes of alien species invasion in China

Data of classification, origin, pathway and environmental impacts of invasive alien micro-organisms, invertebrates, amphibians and reptiles, fish, birds, mammals, weeds, trees, and marine organisms in terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems of China, were analyzed, based on literature retrieval, field survey and consultation. Some 283 invasive alien species were recorded in China, including 19 invasive alien micro-organisms, 18 aquatic plants, 170 terrestrial plants, 25 aquatic invertebrates, 33 terrestrial invertebrates, 3 amphibians and reptiles, 10 fish, and 5 mammals. Of the invasive alien species, 55.1% originated from North and South America, 21.7% from Europe, 9.9% from Asia, 8.1% from Africa and 0.6% from Oceania. Many institutions and individuals in China lack adequate knowledge of ecological and environmental consequences caused by invasive alien species, with some ignorance of the dangerous invasion in the introduction of alien species. For instance, 50.0% of invasive alien plants were intentionally introduced as pasture, feedingstuff, ornamental plants, textile plants, medicinal plants, vegetables, or lawn plants, 25% of alien invasive animals were intentionally introduced for cultivation, ornament, or biological control, In addition, more efforts are being made in the introduction of alien species, and little attention is paid on the management of introduced alien species, which may cause their escape into natural environment and potential threats to the environment. There were also gaps in quarantine system in China. All microorganisms were unintentionally introduced, through timber, seedling, flowerpot, or soil; 76.3% of alien invasive animals invaded through commodity or transportation facility because of the failure of quarantine. Therefore, quarantine measures should be strictly implemented; and meanwhile the intentional introduction of alien species should be strictly managed and a system of risk assessment should be implemented.

Evaluation of resources to support production of high quality health information for patients and the public. Final report for NHS Research Outputs Programme

Durbin, J., Urquhart, C. & Yeoman, A. (2003). Evaluation of resources to support production of high quality health information for patients and the public. Final report for NHS Research Outputs Programme. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: Department of Health

Blair's Africa: The Politics of Securitization and Fear

Abrahamsen, R. (2005). Blair's Africa: The Politics of Securitization and Fear. Alternatives: Global, Local, Political. 30(1), pp.55-80 RAE2008

Re-focusing risk assessment in forensic mental health nursing.

Editorial in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 2015, 22(7)

An examination of the underlying trait structure of psychopathy: applications for screening and measurement

This thesis seeks to clarify the faceted organisation of psychopathy with a view to developing a comprehensive protocol for the assessment of core psychopathic personality traits. The framework developed will, as best as possible, be free of sample bias. The Self-and Informant-report Deviant Personality Screen (DPS) is introduced and a series of empirical studies are conducted to examine the psychometric properties and construct validity of these measures in general and offender populations. Findings from these studies provide strong support for the utility of the DPS scales for the appraisal of psychopathy across diverse population samples. In addition to this, the utility of cognitive based performance measures for the assessment of emotional deficits in psychopathy is evaluated. Results from this study suggest limited correspondence between these measurement techniques and self-report psychopathy measures. Finally, research conducted on offenders suggests that information obtained from DPS reports may be useful within a broad framework of risk assessment. Further empirical and theoretical implications of the research are discussed.

Policy impacts on Vietnam stock markets: a case of anomalies and disequilibria 2000-2006

Vietnam launched its first-ever stock market, named as Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center (HSTC) on July 20, 2000. This is one of pioneering works on HSTC, which finds empirical evidences for the following: Anomalies of the HSTC stock returns through clusters of limit-hits, limit-hit sequences; Strong herd effect toward extreme positive returns of the market portfolio;The specification of ARMA-GARCH helps capture fairly well issues such as serial correlations and fat-tailed for the stabilized period. By using further information and policy dummy variables, it is justifiable that policy decisions on technicalities of trading can have influential impacts on the move of risk level, through conditional variance behaviors of HSTC stock returns. Policies on trading and disclosure practices have had profound impacts on Vietnam Stock Market (VSM). The over-using of policy tools can harm the market and investing mentality. Price limits become increasingly irrelevant and prevent the market from self-adjusting to equilibrium. These results on VSM have not been reported before in the literature on Vietnam’s financial markets. Given the policy implications, we suggest that the Vietnamese authorities re-think the use of price limit and give more freedom to market participants.