Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Self-Confidence, Overconfidence and Prenatal Testosterone Exposure: Evidence from the Lab

This paper examines whether the degree of confidence and overconfidence in one's ability is determined biologically. In articular, we study whether foetal testosterone exposure correlates with an incentive-compatible measure of confidence within an experimental setting. We find that men (rather than women) who were exposed to high testosterone levels in their mother's womb are less likely to overestimate their actual performance, which in turn helps them to gain higher monetary rewards. Men exposed to low prenatal testosterone levels, instead, set unrealistically high expectations which results in self-defeating behaviour. These results from the lab are able to reconcile hitherto disconnected evidence from the field, by providing a link between traders'overconfidence bias, long-term financial returns and prenatal testosterone exposure.

Social norms, morals and self-interest as determinants of pro-environment behaviour.

This paper considers the role which selfish, moral and social incentives and pressures play in explaining the extent to which stated choices over pro-environment behaviours vary across individuals. The empirical context is choices over household waste contracts and recycling actions in Poland. A theoretical model is used to show how cost-based motives and the desire for a positive self- and social image combine to determine the utility from alternative choices of recycling behaviour. We then describe a discrete choice experiment designed to empirically investigate the effects such drivers have on stated choices. Using a latent class model, we distinguish three types of individual who are described as duty-orientated recyclers, budget recyclers and homo oeconomicus. These groups vary in their preferences for how frequently waste is collected, and the number of categories into which household waste must be recycled. Our results have implications for the design of future policies aimed at improving participation in recycling schemes.

Clinician characteristics, communication, and patient outcome in oncology: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to review the literature on clinician characteristics influencing patient-clinician communication or patient outcome in oncology. METHODS: Studies investigating the association of clinician characteristics with quality of communication and with outcome for adult cancer patients were systematically searched in MEDLINE, PSYINFO, PUBMED, EMBASE, CINHAL, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library up to November 2012. We used the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement to guide our review. Articles were extracted independently by two of the authors using predefined criteria. RESULTS: Twenty seven articles met the inclusion criteria. Clinician characteristics included a variety of sociodemographic, relational, and personal characteristics. A positive impact on quality of communication and/or patient outcome was reported for communication skills training, an external locus of control, empathy, a socioemotional approach, shared decision-making style, higher anxiety, and defensiveness. A negative impact was reported for increased level of fatigue and burnout and expression of worry. Professional experience of clinicians was not related to communication and/or to patient outcome, and divergent results were reported for clinician gender, age, stress, posture, and confidence or self-efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Various clinician characteristics have different effects on quality of communication and/or patient outcome. Research is needed to investigate the pathways leading to effective communication between clinicians and patients. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, reliability and validity of a self-reported questionnaire: the DiPCare-Q.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in biopsychosocial science have underlined the importance of taking social history and life course perspective into consideration in primary care. For both clinical and research purposes, this study aims to develop and validate a standardised instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. METHODS: We identified relevant potential questions regarding deprivation using a systematic review, structured interviews, focus group interviews and a think-aloud approach. Item response theory analysis was then used to reduce the length of the 38-item questionnaire and derive the deprivation in primary care questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients during their planned visits to an ambulatory general internal medicine clinic. Patients completed the questionnaire a second time over the phone 3 days later to enable us to assess reliability. Content validity of the DiPCare-Q was then assessed by 17 general practitioners. Psychometric properties and validity of the final instrument were investigated in a second set of patients. The DiPCare-Q was administered to a random sample of 1898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary care practices in western Switzerland along with questions on subjective social status, education, source of income, welfare status and subjective poverty. RESULTS: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions: material (eight items), social (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 (KR20) =0.827) and the validation set (KR20 =0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (interclass correlation coefficients=0.847) and was correlated to subjective social status (r(s)=-0.539). CONCLUSION: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument that may prove useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Trends in self-reported prevalence and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes in Swiss adults, 1997-2007.

Switzerland has a low mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases, but little is known regarding prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes) in the general population. In this study, we assessed 10-year trends in self-reported prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland. data from three national health interview surveys conducted between 1997 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss adult population (49,261 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and control levels were computed. The sample was weighted to match the sex - and age distribution, geographical location and nationality of the entire adult population of Switzerland. self-reported prevalence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes increased from 22.1%, 11.9% and 3.3% in 1997 to 24.1%, 17.4% and 4.8% in 2007, respectively. Prevalence of self-reported treatment among subjects with CV RFs also increased from 52.1%, 18.5% and 50.0% in 1997 to 60.4%, 38.8% and 53.3% in 2007 for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively. Self-reported control levels increased from 56.4%, 52.9% and 50.0% in 1997 to 80.6%, 75.1% and 53.3% in 2007 for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively. Finally, screening during the last 12 months increased from 84.5%, 86.5% and 87.4% in 1997 to 94.0%, 94.6% and 94.1% in 2007 for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively. in Switzerland, the prevalences of self-reported hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes have increased between 1997 and 2007. Management and screening have improved, but further improvements can still be achieved as over one third of subjects with reported CV RFs are not treated.

Could cell membranes produce acoustic streaming? Making the case for synechococcus self-propulsion

Sir James Lighthill proposed in 1992 that acoustic streaming occurs in the inner ear, as part of the cochlear amplifier mechanism. Here we hypothesize that some of the most ancient organisms use acoustic streaming not only for self-propulsion but also to enhance their nutrient uptake. We focus on a motile strain of Synechococcus, a yanobacteria whose mechanism for self-propulsion is not known. Molecular motors could work like piezoelectric transducers acting on the crystalline structure surrounding the outer cell membrane. Our calculations show that a traveling surface acoustic wave (SAW)could account for the observed velocities. These SAW waves will also produce a non-negligible Stokes layer surrounding the cell: motion within this region being essentially chaotic. Therefore, an AS mechanism would be biologically advantageous, enhancing localized diffusion processes and consequently, chemical reactions. We believe that acoustic streaming, produced by nanometer scale membrane vibrations could be widespread in cell biology. Other possible instances are yeast cells and erythrocytes. Flows generated by acoustic streaming may also be produced by silica coated diatoms along their raphe. We note that microelectromechanical (MEMS) acoustic streaming devices were first introduced in the 1990’s. Nature may have preceded this invention by 2.7 Gyr.

How are temporal and social comparisons related to appraisals of self-rated health during very old age?

This study investigated the direction of effects of temporal and downward social comparisons on self-rated health in very old age. Self-rated health can either reinforce or hinder comparison processes. In the framework of the Swiss Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study on the Oldest Old, individuals aged 80 to 84 at baseline were interviewed and followed longitudinally for 5 years. Multilevel analyses were used to test the relative importance of temporal and social comparisons on self-rated health evaluations synchronically and diachronically (with a time lag of 12 to 18 months) as well as the direction of these relative influences. Results indicate that (a) at the synchronic level, continuity temporal comparisons have more impact than downward social comparisons on self-rated health; (b) both types of comparison had an independent and positive effect on self-rated health at the diachronic level; (c) self-rated health has an independent synchronic effect on both types of comparison and an independent diachronic effect in temporal comparison.

Cultural competency of health-care providers in a Swiss University Hospital: self-assessed cross-cultural skillfulness in a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: As the diversity of the European population evolves, measuring providers' skillfulness in cross-cultural care and understanding what contextual factors may influence this is increasingly necessary. Given limited information about differences in cultural competency by provider role, we compared cross-cultural skillfulness between physicians and nurses working at a Swiss university hospital. METHODS: A survey on cross-cultural care was mailed in November 2010 to front-line providers in Lausanne, Switzerland. This questionnaire included some questions from the previously validated Cross-Cultural Care Survey. We compared physicians' and nurses' mean composite scores and proportion of "3-good/4-very good" responses, for nine perceived skillfulness items (4-point Likert-scale) using the validated tool. We used linear regression to examine how provider role (physician vs. nurse) was associated with composite skillfulness scores, adjusting for demographics (gender, non-French dominant language), workplace (time at institution, work-unit "sensitized" to cultural-care), reported cultural-competence training, and cross-cultural care problem-awareness. RESULTS: Of 885 questionnaires, 368 (41.2%) returned the survey: 124 (33.6%) physicians and 244 (66.4%) nurses, reflecting institutional distribution of providers. Physicians had better mean composite scores for perceived skillfulness than nurses (2.7 vs. 2.5, p < 0.005), and significantly higher proportion of "good/very good" responses for 4/9 items. After adjusting for explanatory variables, physicians remained more likely to have higher skillfulness (β = 0.13, p = 0.05). Among all, higher skillfulness was associated with perception/awareness of problems in the following areas: inadequate cross-cultural training (β = 0.14, p = 0.01) and lack of practical experience caring for diverse populations (β = 0.11, p = 0.04). In stratified analyses among physicians alone, having French as a dominant language (β = -0.34, p < 0.005) was negatively correlated with skillfulness. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there is much room for cultural competency improvement among providers. These results support the need for cross-cultural skills training with an inter-professional focus on nurses, education that attunes provider awareness to the local issues in cross-cultural care, and increased diversity efforts in the work force, particularly among physicians.

Self-perceived health status and mental health outcomes in young adults born with less than 1000 g.

AIM: To assess self-perceived health status and mental health outcomes of former extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants at young adulthood compared with community norms and to analyse predictors of poor outcome. METHODS: Fifty-five ELBW adults, 18 men (33%), with median (range) gestational age of 28.7 (25.0-34.0) weeks and birth weight of 930 (680-990) grams, born in Switzerland, were included. They self-rated their health status and mental health at a mean (range) age of 23.3 (21.8-25.9) years. Health status was measured by the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 questionnaire and mental health by the Brief Symptom Inventory. RESULTS: The mean scores for both outcome measures were in the normal range. However, the study group self-rated significantly higher physical health status and lower mental health status compared with the community norms, and scores for self-perceived mental health tended to be worse in the former. ELBW adults reported more problems in socio-emotional role functioning compared with the community norms. Female sex was associated with poorer and bronchopulmonary dysplasia with better mental health status. CONCLUSION: Health status and mental health of former ELBW adults were overall satisfying. However, the comparison with the community norms revealed differences, which may be important for parental and patient counselling and developing support strategies.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.