Utility Analysis for Multiple Selection Devices and Multiple Outcomes

Traditional utility analysis only calculates the value of a given selection procedure over random selection. This assumption is not only an inaccurate representation of staffing policy but also leads to overestimates of a device’s value. This paper presents a more accurate method for computing the validity of a selection battery for when there are multiple selection devices and multiple criteria. Application of the method is illustrated using previous utility analysis work and an actual case of administrative assistants with eight predictors and nine criteria. A final example also is provided that includes these advancements as well as other researchers’ advances in a combined utility model. Results reveal that accounting for multiple criteria and outcomes dramatically reduces the utility estimates of implementing new selection devices.

Social Capital in Jordan: Wasta in Employment Selection

Social capital has emerged as a concept of great interest and potential to help understand and explain how social structures and networks impact political, social and business practices at the collective and individual levels. The basic premise is: investment in social relations will yield expected returns. Extant research has largely focused on the West; our knowledge of how social capital plays out in the Middle East is limited. We marry social capital with ‘wasta’, the strong family and tribal based connections secured in networks in the Arab world, and investigate HR managers’ perceptions of wasta in employment selection in Jordan. Often use of wasta in employment selection is related to favouritism and nepotism and the many negative outcomes of not adhering to merit-based selection. Through in-depth interview data we reveal a more nuanced and multifaceted view of wasta in employment selection. When examined through the social capital lens six distinct themes emerge: (i) wasta as an enabler to get jobs, (ii) wasta as social ties/ solidarity, (iii) wasta as a method to transfer/ attain information, (iv) wasta as a guide in decision-making, (v) wasta as an exchange, and (vi) wasta as pressure. Our findings confirm that at times wasta grants individuals unfair access to employment that is beyond their qualifications, skills, knowledge and/ or abilities. However, organisational context is relevant. In banking, not all roles are open to wasta. Where the possible negative impact on the organisation poses too great a risk HR managers feel able to resist even strong wasta. Context also emerges as being of key importance with regards to the background and business model of an organisation. Family businesses tend to operate wasta more frequently and extensively using tribal connections, religious networks and geographical area based networks as a key source in hiring. Despite globalisation and international nature of banking, wasta and tribalism feature strongly in daily business conduct in Jordan. Our paper illuminates the positive effects of wasta, e.g.as a method to transfer information, together with discussion on the dangers of ‘cloning’, a (lack of diversity), and the dangers of an incompetent workforce .

Competition and fixation of cohorts of adaptive mutations under Fisher geometrical model

One of the simplest models of adaptation to a new environment is Fisher's Geometric Model (FGM), in which populations move on a multidimensional landscape defined by the traits under selection. The predictions of this model have been found to be consistent with current observations of patterns of fitness increase in experimentally evolved populations. Recent studies investigated the dynamics of allele frequency change along adaptation of microbes to simple laboratory conditions and unveiled a dramatic pattern of competition between cohorts of mutations, i.e., multiple mutations simultaneously segregating and ultimately reaching fixation. Here, using simulations, we study the dynamics of phenotypic and genetic change as asexual populations under clonal interference climb a Fisherian landscape, and ask about the conditions under which FGM can display the simultaneous increase and fixation of multiple mutations-mutation cohorts-along the adaptive walk. We find that FGM under clonal interference, and with varying levels of pleiotropy, can reproduce the experimentally observed competition between different cohorts of mutations, some of which have a high probability of fixation along the adaptive walk. Overall, our results show that the surprising dynamics of mutation cohorts recently observed during experimental adaptation of microbial populations can be expected under one of the oldest and simplest theoretical models of adaptation-FGM.

Case Based Heuristic Selection for Timetabling Problems

This paper presents a case-based heuristic selection approach for automated university course and exam timetabling. The method described in this paper is motivated by the goal of developing timetabling systems that are fundamentally more general than the current state of the art. Heuristics that worked well in previous similar situations are memorized in a case base and are retrieved for solving the problem in hand. Knowledge discovery techniques are employed in two distinct scenarios. Firstly, we model the problem and the problem solving situations along with specific heuristics for those problems. Secondly, we refine the case base and discard cases which prove to be non-useful in solving new problems. Experimental results are presented and analyzed. It is shown that case based reasoning can act effectively as an intelligent approach to learn which heuristics work well for particular timetabling situations. We conclude by outlining and discussing potential research issues in this critical area of knowledge discovery for different difficult timetabling problems.

Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

Case Based Heuristic Selection for Timetabling Problems

This paper presents a case-based heuristic selection approach for automated university course and exam timetabling. The method described in this paper is motivated by the goal of developing timetabling systems that are fundamentally more general than the current state of the art. Heuristics that worked well in previous similar situations are memorized in a case base and are retrieved for solving the problem in hand. Knowledge discovery techniques are employed in two distinct scenarios. Firstly, we model the problem and the problem solving situations along with specific heuristics for those problems. Secondly, we refine the case base and discard cases which prove to be non-useful in solving new problems. Experimental results are presented and analyzed. It is shown that case based reasoning can act effectively as an intelligent approach to learn which heuristics work well for particular timetabling situations. We conclude by outlining and discussing potential research issues in this critical area of knowledge discovery for different difficult timetabling problems.

Applied evolution: An integrated approach to studying life history traits in response to drug selection

The use of chemical control measures to reduce the impact of parasite and pest species has frequently resulted in the development of resistance. Thus, resistance management has become a key concern in human and veterinary medicine, and in agricultural production. Although it is known that factors such as gene flow between susceptible and resistant populations, drug type, application methods, and costs of resistance can affect the rate of resistance evolution, less is known about the impacts of density-dependent eco-evolutionary processes that could be altered by drug-induced mortality. The overall aim of this thesis was to take an experimental evolution approach to assess how life history traits respond to drug selection, using a free-living dioecious worm (Caenorhabditis remanei) as a model. In Chapter 2, I defined the relationship between C. remanei survival and Ivermectin dose over a range of concentrations, in order to control the intensity of selection used in the selection experiment described in Chapter 4. The dose-response data were also used to appraise curve-fitting methods, using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection to compare a series of nonlinear models. The type of model fitted to the dose response data had a significant effect on the estimates of LD50 and LD99, suggesting that failure to fit an appropriate model could give misleading estimates of resistance status. In addition, simulated data were used to establish that a potential cost of resistance could be predicted by comparing survival at the upper asymptote of dose-response curves for resistant and susceptible populations, even when differences were as low as 4%. This approach to dose-response modeling ensures that the maximum amount of useful information relating to resistance is gathered in one study. In Chapter 3, I asked how simulations could be used to inform important design choices used in selection experiments. Specifically, I focused on the effects of both within- and between-line variation on estimated power, when detecting small, medium and large effect sizes. Using mixed-effect models on simulated data, I demonstrated that commonly used designs with realistic levels of variation could be underpowered for substantial effect sizes. Thus, use of simulation-based power analysis provides an effective way to avoid under or overpowering a study designs incorporating variation due to random effects. In Chapter 4, I 3 investigated how Ivermectin dosage and changes in population density affect the rate of resistance evolution. I exposed replicate lines of C. remanei to two doses of Ivermectin (high and low) to assess relative survival of lines selected in drug-treated environments compared to untreated controls over 10 generations. Additionally, I maintained lines where mortality was imposed randomly to control for differences in density between drug treatments and to distinguish between the evolutionary consequences of drug treatment versus ecological processes affected by changes in density-dependent feedback. Intriguingly, both drug-selected and random-mortality lines showed an increase in survivorship when challenged with Ivermectin; the magnitude of this increase varied with the intensity of selection and life-history stage. The results suggest that interactions between density-dependent processes and life history may mediate evolved changes in susceptibility to control measures, which could result in misleading conclusions about the evolution of heritable resistance following drug treatment. In Chapter 5, I investigated whether the apparent changes in drug susceptibility found in Chapter 4 were related to evolved changes in life-history of C. remanei populations after selection in drug-treated and random-mortality environments. Rapid passage of lines in the drug-free environment had no effect on the measured life-history traits. In the drug-free environment, adult size and fecundity of drug-selected lines increased compared to the controls but drug selection did not affect lifespan. In the treated environment, drug-selected lines showed increased lifespan and fecundity relative to controls. Adult size of randomly culled lines responded in a similar way to drug-selected lines in the drug-free environment, but no change in fecundity or lifespan was observed in either environment. The results suggest that life histories of nematodes can respond to selection as a result of the application of control measures. Failure to take these responses into account when applying control measures could result in adverse outcomes, such as larger and more fecund parasites, as well as over-estimation of the development of genetically controlled resistance. In conclusion, my thesis shows that there may be a complex relationship between drug selection, density-dependent regulatory processes and life history of populations challenged with control measures. This relationship could have implications for how resistance is monitored and managed if life histories of parasitic species show such eco-evolutionary responses to drug application.

The suppliers selection problem: a case study

The effective supplier evaluation and purchasing processes are of vital importance to business organizations, making the suppliers selection problem a fundamental key issue to their success. We consider a complex supplier selection problem with multiple products where minimum package quantities, minimum order values related to delivery costs, and discounted pricing schemes are taken into account. Our main contribution is to present a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model for this supplier selection problem. The model is used to solve several examples including three real case studies from an electronic equipment assembly company.

A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

Carrier Selection for Multi-commodity Flow Optimization in Cooperative Environments

Part 18: Optimization in Collaborative Networks

Phase transitions in gene networks evolved under different selection rules

Mathematical models of gene regulation are a powerful tool for understanding the complex features of genetic control. While various modeling efforts have been successful at explaining gene expression dynamics, much less is known about how evolution shapes the structure of these networks. An important feature of gene regulatory networks is their stability in response to environmental perturbations. Regulatory systems are thought to have evolved to exist near the transition between stability and instability, in order to have the required stability to environmental fluctuations while also being able to achieve a wide variety of functions (corresponding to different dynamical patterns). We study a simplified model of gene network evolution in which links are added via different selection rules. These growth models are inspired by recent work on `explosive' percolation which shows that when network links are added through competitive rather than random processes, the connectivity phase transition can be significantly delayed, and when it is reached, it appears to be first order (discontinuous, e.g., going from no failure at all to large expected failure) instead of second order (continuous, e.g., going from no failure at all to very small expected failure). We find that by modifying the traditional framework for networks grown via competitive link addition to capture how gene networks evolve to avoid damage propagation, we also see significant delays in the transition that depend on the selection rules, but the transitions always appear continuous rather than `explosive'.

Selection and Passage of County Land Preservation Voter Referendum: The Role of Government

County jurisdictions in America are increasingly exercising self-government in the provision of public community services through the context of second order federalism. In states exercising this form of contemporary governance, county governments with “reformed” policy-making structures and professional management practices, have begun to rival or surpass municipalities in the delivery of local services with regional implications such as environmental protection (Benton 2002, 2003; Marando and Reeves, 1993). The voter referendum, a form of direct democracy, is an important component of county land preservation and environmental protection governmental policies. The recent growth and success of land preservation voter referendums nationwide reflects an increase in citizen participation in government and their desire to protect vacant land and its natural environment from threats of over-development, urbanization and sprawl, loss of open space and farmland, deterioration of ecosystems, and inadequate park and recreational amenities. The study’s design employs a sequential, mixed method. First, a quantitative approach employs the Heckman two-step model. It is fitted with variables for the non-random sample of 227 voter referendum counties and all non-voter referendum counties in the U.S. from 1988 to 2009. Second, the qualitative data collected from the in-depth investigation of three South Florida county case studies with twelve public administrator interviews is transformed for integration with the quantitative findings. The purpose of the qualitative method is to complement, explain and enrich the statistical analysis of county demographic, socio-economic, terrain, regional, governance and government, political preference, environmentalism, and referendum-specific factors. The research finds that government factors are significant in terms of the success of land preservation voter referendums; more specifically, the presence of self-government authority (home rule charter), a reformed structure (county administrator/manager or elected executive), and environmental interest groups. In addition, this study concludes that successful counties are often located coastal, exhibit population and housing growth, and have older and more educated citizens who vote democratic in presidential elections. The analysis of case study documents and public administrator interviews finds that pragmatic considerations of timing, local politics and networking of regional stakeholders are also important features of success. Further research is suggested utilizing additional public participation, local government and public administration factors.

Foreign-born CEOs, Country-Specific Skills, Selection, and Strategic Consequences

In this dissertation, I first suggest an extension of the managerial rents model and more specifically the managerial skills typology that it offers. Building on research in international business, I propose adding country-specific skills (CSS) to this typology in addition to firm-specific, industry-specific, and generic skills. I define CSS as managers’ abilities that are applicable and specific to a particular national institutional context. Such skills are distinct from the other three types identified and are likely to influence managers’ performance and the performance of their firms. So if CSS are distinct skills, what are the implications for strategy and international business research? In an attempt to respond to this question, I conduct two empirical essays in which I examine the implications of this refinement of the typology of managerial skills for CEO selection and firms’ mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategy. In the first empirical essay, I puzzle at the fact that although CSS constitute a barrier to high-level executive mobility across countries, there have been a growing number of foreign-born CEOs being appointed across the globe. Why are these individuals being selected for the post of CEO? Using information on the appointment of foreign-born and national CEOs from 2005 to 2010 among global 500 companies, I show that internationalization pressures help explain their selection and that two types of firms are likely to appoint foreign leaders: highly internationalized firms and firms that are likely to internationalize. In the second empirical essay, I examine the strategic implications of country-specific skills. Employing the same sample as the one used in the first empirical essay, I demonstrate that given that their mindset is likely to be less focused on firms’ home market, foreign-born CEOs may be prone to institute more changes in firms’ cross-border M&A strategy than their domestic counterparts. I also theorize on the moderating influence of CEOs’ insiderness.

Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

The Selection Process of Applications to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System: Who Gets Financial Support?

Public policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation play a vital role when firms have difficulties in accessing external finance. However, some authors have found evidence of long-term inefficiency in subsidized firms (Bernini and Pelligrini, 2011; Cerqua and Pelligrini, 2014) and ineffectiveness of public funds (Jorge and Suárez, 2011). The aim of the paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process of applications to public financial support for stimulating innovation. Using a binary choice model, we investigate which factors influence the probability of obtaining public support for an innovative investment. The explanatory variables are connected to firm profile, the characteristics of the project and the macroeconomic environment. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation.Incentive System (PIIS) and on the applications managed by the Alentejo Regional Operational Program in the period 2007 – 2013. The results show that the selection process is more focused on the expected impact of the project than on the firm’s past performance. Factors that influence the credit risk and the decision to grant a bank loan do not seem to influence the government evaluator regarding the funding of some projects. Past activities in R&D do not significantly affect the probability of having an application approved under the PIIS, whereas an increase in the number of patents and the number of skilled jobs are both relevant factors. Nevertheless, some evidence of firms’ short-term inefficiency was found, in that receiving public financial support is linked to a smaller increase in productivity compared to non-approved firm applications. At the macroeconomic level, periods with a higher cost of capital in financial markets are linked to a greater probability of getting an application for public support approved, which could be associated with the effectiveness of public support in correcting market failings.