Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

The influence of gender in the direction of Spanish cooperative societies on profitability and indebtedness: an empirical analysis

In this paper the claim for the market for a new business management to ensure the presence of women in decision -making to respond to new social needs addressed. Thus, this paper analyzes the influence of gender diversity of the directors on the profitability and the level of debt for a sample of 5,199 Spanish cooperatives. Unlike capitalist societies, these organizations have a number of peculiarities in their government, and that the partners are themselves major time, agents and customers. The study focuses on the Spanish context, where there is an open debate on the importance of women's business management, as in other countries, driven by the proliferation of legislation on gender equality, being, in addition, Spain, the pioneer in having specific legislation on Social Economy. The results show that cooperatives with greater female representation in theirs Boards have higher profitability. On the other hand, those Boards with a higher percentage of women show a lower level of indebtedness.

Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjöll caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe but as a geological event, it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peat and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the last 7000 years. Within this period ten tephra layers have been identified in the Faroe Islands, 14 in Great Britain, 11 in Germany, 38 in Scandinavia and 33 in Ireland. Seven ash fall events have been historically documented prior to the Eyjafjöll 2010 event. Ash fall events appear to be more frequent in the last 1500 years, but it is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artefact of the records themselves or the way they have been generated. In the last 1,000 years, volcanic ash clouds reached Northern Europe with a mean return interval of 53 ± 8 years (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 112 years). Modelling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 year period there is a 17% probability of tephra fallout event in Northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

Putting a Price on Prisoner Release: The History of Bail and the Future of Parole

In this article, we argue that the history of bail foretells the future of parole. Under a plancalled the Conditional Post-Conviction Release Bond Act (recently passed into law inthree states), US prisoners can secure early release only after posting ‘post-convictionbail’. As with pre-trial bail, the fledgling model would require prisoners to pay a percent-age of the bail amount to secure their release under the contractual responsibility of acommercial bail agency. If release conditions are breached, bounty hunters are legallyempowered to seize and return the parolee to prison. Our inquiry outlines the origins of this post-conviction bond plan and the research upon which it is based. Drawing on the‘new penology’ framework, we identify several underlying factors that make for a ripeadvocacy environment and set the stage for widespread state-level adoption of this planin the near future. Post-conviction bail fits squarely within the growing policy trendstoward privatization, managerialism, and actuarial justice. Most importantly, though,advocates have the benefit of precedent on their side, as most US states have longrelied on a system of commercial bail bonding and private bounty hunting to manageconditional pretrial release.

‘Towards a Green New Deal on the Island of Ireland: from economic crisis to a new political economy of sustainability’

This article begins from the assumption (which may seem controversial to many) that anyone who thinks that our current economic crisis is a temporary blip until ‘normal service’ (i.e. a return to ‘business as usual’) is resumed, profoundly misunderstands the severity and significance of what’s happening to the global economy and its impacts on the future prosperity of the island of Ireland. The economic recession represents nothing short of a re-structuring of the global economy and the creation of a new dispensation between governments, markets and citizens. The full implications of the re-regulation of the market, with the state bailing out and part nationalising the financial sector in both jurisdictions on the island (as in other parts of the world) have yet to be seen, but what we are witnessing is the emergence of a new economic model. Those who think we can, or even ought to, return to the pre-2008 economic model, are gravely mistaken. The current economic downturn marks the end of the ‘neo-liberal’ model and the beginnings of the transition (an inevitable transition, this article will argue) towards a new low carbon, renewable, green and sustainable economy and society.

Speculative Return Address Stack Management Revisited

Branch prediction feeds a speculative execution processor core with instructions. Branch mispredictions are inevitable and have negative effects on performance and energy consumption. With the advent of highly accurate conditional branch predictors, nonconditional branch instructions are gaining importance.

Parenting advantage in the MNC: An embeddedness perspective on the value added by headquarters

What determines the value an MNC’s headquarters adds to its own affiliates? In this paper, we shed light on this question by linking the embeddedness view of the multinational corporation to the literature on parenting advantage. We test our hypotheses on an original dataset of 124 manufacturing subsidiaries located in Europe. Our results indicate that the external embeddedness of the MNC is an antecedent to headquarters’ value creation. We find that headquarters’ investments into their own relationships with the subsidiaries’ contexts are positively related to the value added by headquarters. Furthermore, this relationship is stronger when the subsidiary itself is strongly embedded. We discuss implications for the MNC literature, embeddedness research, and the literature on parenting and headquarters’ roles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energy efficiency investments in the home: Swiss homeowners and expectations about future energy prices

Using conjoint choice experiments, we surveyed 473 Swiss homeowners about their preferences for energy efficiency home renovations.We find that homeowners are responsive to the upfront costs of the renovation projects, governmentoffered rebates, savings in energy expenses, time horizon over which such savings would be realized, and thermal comfort improvement. The implicit discount rate is low, ranging from 1.5 to 3%, depending on model specification. This is consistent with Hassett and Metcalf (1993) and Metcalf and Rosenthal (1995), and with the fact that our scenarios contain no uncertainty. Respondents who feel completely uncertain about future energy prices are more likely to select the status quo (no renovations) in any given choice task and weight the costs of the investments more heavily than the financial gains (subsidies and savings on the energy bills). Renovations are more likely when respondents believe that climate change considerations are important determinants of home renovations. Copyright © 2013 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

From Frank Miller to Zack Snyder, and Return: Contemporary Superhero Comics and Post-Classical Hollywood

Film adaptations of superhero comic-books offer a particularly rich case study to analyse narrative strategies of contemporary Hollywood cinema. The serial structures adopted by the comics they are based on, as well as their use of the spectacular potential of the image, provide a successful model for current audiovisual productions. Without completely abandoning classical techniques, these adaptations try to find a new balance between narrative and digital phantasmagoria. This paper discusses some significant examples of this genre, including adaptations of classical DC and Marvel franchises and more recent series, as well as other comic-book influenced films such as The Matrix and Unbreakable.

Search for the Return of Activity in Active Asteroid 176P/LINEAR

We present the results of a search for the reactivation of active asteroid 176P/LINEAR during its 2011 perihelion passage using deep optical observations obtained before, during, and after that perihelion passage. Deep composite images of 176P constructed from data obtained between 2011 June and 2011 December show no visible signs of activity, while photometric measurements of the object during this period also show no significant brightness enhancements similar to that observed for 176P between 2005 November and 2005 December when it was previously observed to be active. An azimuthal search for dust emission likewise reveals no evidence for directed emission (i.e., a tail, as was previously observed for 176P), while a one-dimensional surface brightness profile analysis shows no indication of a spherically symmetric coma at any time in 2011. We conclude that 176P did not in fact exhibit activity in 2011, at least not on the level on which it exhibited activity in 2005, and suggest that this could be due to the devolatization or mantling of the active site responsible for its activity in 2005.

At Home in Care: Children living with birth parents on a Care Order

This study explored the processes, background information, and perceived reasons why children and young people returned home while remaining in care, in the five HSC Trusts in Northern Ireland. The research also focused on understanding the functions the Care Order had for social services, the birth parents, and young people involved.
It was found that on 31st March 2009, there were 193 children/young people living with their birth parents on a Care Order in Northern Ireland. This is eight per cent of the total population of Looked After children, and is lower than had been anticipated from governmental statistics. In total, the case files of 47 of these young people (24% of them) were reviewed, and interviews were conducted with ten of them and their birth parent/s.
The analysis revealed that the majority of them had in common a parental background history of alcohol abuse and domestic violence, and most return breakdowns in the study were related to continuing parental alcohol and/or drugs misuse. While some children had a planned return home after parents had engaged in supports and completed assessments, many young people had returns that were not planned, as they initiated the move themselves, or previous foster placements had broken down and there were no alternative placements identified for them. Many of these young people essentially ‘voted with their feet’, and social services were required to ensure that they remained safe in often less than optimal circumstances.
After returning home, for many, Care Orders remained for initially unintended lengthy periods because of the risks posed by parents’ intermittent alcohol abuse and their lifestyle, contact issues, and parents’ desire to ensure that their children were able to access the supports that they needed. Thus, Care Orders at home tended to serve two main functions: to either monitor and/or support the placement.

MarcoPolo-R near earth asteroid sample return mission

MarcoPolo-R is a sample return mission to a primitive Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) proposed in collaboration with NASA. It will rendezvous with a primitive NEA, scientifically characterize it at multiple scales,and return a unique sample to Earth unaltered by the atmospheric entry process or terrestrial weathering. MarcoPolo-R will return bulk samples (up to 2 kg) from an organic-rich binary asteroid to Earth for laboratory analyses, allowing us to: explore the origin of planetary materials and initial stages of habitable planet formation; identify and characterize the organics and volatiles in a primitive asteroid; understand the unique geomorphology, dynamics and evolution of a binaryNEA. This project is based on the previous Marco Polo mission study,which was selected for the Assessment Phase of the first round of Cosmic Vision. Its scientific rationale was highly ranked by ESA committees andit was not selected only because the estimated cost was higher than theallotted amount for an M class mission. The cost of Marco Polo-R will be reduced to within the ESA medium mission budget by collaboration withAPL (John Hopkins University) and JPL in the NASA program for coordination with ESA's Cosmic Vision Call. The baseline target is a binary asteroid (175706) 1996 FG3, which offers a very efficient operational and technical mission profile. A binary target also providesenhanced science return. The choice of this target will allow newinvestigations to be performed more easily than at a single object, andalso enables investigations of the fascinating geology and geophysics ofasteroids that are impossible at a single object. Several launch windows have been identified in the time-span 2020-2024. A number of otherpossible primitive single targets of high scientific interest have beenidentified covering a wide range of possible launch dates. The baselinemission scenario of Marco Polo-R to 1996 FG3 is as follows: a singleprimary spacecraft provided by ESA, carrying the Earth Re-entry Capsule, sample acquisition and transfer system provided by NASA, will be launched by a Soyuz-Fregat rocket from Kourou into GTO and using two space segment stages. Two similar missions with two launch windows, in 2021 and 2022 and for both sample return in 2029 (with mission durationof 7 and 8 years), have been defined. Earlier or later launches, in 2020 or 2024, also offer good opportunities. All manoeuvres are carried out by a chemical propulsion system. MarcoPolo-R takes advantage of three industrial studies completed as part of the previous Marco Polo mission (see ESA/SRE (2009)3, Marco Polo Yellow Book) and of the expertise of the consortium led by Dr. A.F. Cheng (PI of the NASA NEAR Shoemaker mission) of the JHU-APL, including JPL, NASA ARC, NASA LaRC, and MIT.

Impacts of culling and exclusion of browsers on vegetation recovery across New Zealand forests

Introduced browsing animals negatively impact New Zealand's indigenous ecosystems. Eradicating introduced browsers is currently unfeasible at large scales, but culling since the 1960s has successfully reduced populations to a fraction of their earlier sizes. Here we ask whether culling of ungulates has allowed populations of woody plant species to recover across New Zealand forests. Using 73 pairs of permanent fenced exclosure and unfenced control plots, we found rapid increases in sapling densities within exclosures located in disturbed forests, particularly if a seedling bank was already present. Recovery was slower in thinning stands and hampered by dense fern cover. We inferred ungulate diet preference from species recovery rates inside exclosures to test whether culling increased abundance of preferred species across a national network of 574 unfenced permanent forest plots. Across this network, saplings were observed irrespective of their preference to ungulates in the 1970s, but preferred species were rarer within disturbed sites in the 1990s after long-term culling and despite nationwide increases in sapling densities. This indicates that preferred species are relatively heavily affected by browsing after culling, presumably because remaining animals will increase consumption of preferred species as competition is reduced. Our results clearly suggest that culling will not return preferred plants to the landscape immediately, even given suitable conditions for regeneration. Complete removal of ungulates rather than simply reducing their densities may be required for recovery in heavily browsed temperate forests, but since this is only feasible at small spatial scales, management efforts must target sites of high conservation value. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Novel furan polymer materials based on the reversible Diels-Alder reaction

A futura e inevitável escassez dos recursos fósseis, juntamente com o aumento imprevisível dos seus preços, levou, nas últimas décadas, a um aumento impressionante de iniciativas dedicadas não só à procura de fontes alternativas de fornecedores de energia, mas também de produtos químicos e polímeros a partir de fontes renováveis, em particular da biomassa vegetal. Entre estes, os polímeros derivados de monómeros furânicos constituem uma classe única de materiais cujas estruturas podem, em princípio, simular virtualmente os seus homólogos actualmente derivados de recursos fósseis. O anel furânico é uma estrutura heterocíclica com um carácter diénico pronunciado, o que torna-o um dieno particularmente apropriado para a reacção de Diels-Alder (DA) com dienófilos como a maleimida. Um dos aspectos mais relevantes da reacção de DA é a sua reversibilidade em função da temperatura, a qual permite que os aductos sejam facilmente revertidos nos seus precursores por aumento da temperatura (reacção de retro-DA). No caso específico da combinação furano-maleimida, a formação do aducto predomina até cerca de 60ºC, enquanto a reacção inversa é dominante acima de 100ºC. A combinação desta característica da reacção de DA com a química de compostos furânicos pode abrir um novo caminho para a preparação de materiais macromoleculares funcionais com base em fontes renováveis e com aplicações promissoras como auto-reparação e reciclabilidade. O principal objectivo desta Tese, é a síntese e caracterização de novos materiais poliméricos termo-reversíveis, aplicando a reacção de DA a monómeros complementares com estruturas dos tipos furânico (o dieno, designado por A) e de maleimida (o dienófilo, designado por B). A primeira etapa neste trabalho envolveu a síntese, purificação e caracterização de novos monómeros furânicos e de maleimida do tipo AA, A3, BB, B3, AB, AB2, cada um com diferentes grupos separadores das funções reactivas. Posteriormente, estes monómeros foram polimerizados e despolimerizados por ciclos de DA/retro-DA utilizando diferentes combinações. A formação e dissociação de todos os aductos de DA foram seguidas por ambas espectroscopias de UV e RMN de 1H. O primeiro sistema de DA estudado foi uma combinação modelo entre reagentes mono-funcionais (-A+-B), nomeadamente o acetato furfurílico (FA) e a N-metilmaleimida (MM), ambos comercialmente disponíveis. O objectivo desta abordagem foi estudar a cinética e o equilíbrio da formação/dissociação dos aductos de DA e obter indicações sobre as condições mais adequadas a serem usadas na preparação dos correspondentes novos materiais macromoleculares. Além disso, pretendia-se verificar a presença ou ausência de reacções secundárias que poderiam intervir em ambas as vias directa e inversa das reacções, mesmo após vários ciclos. A espectroscopia de UV forneceu informação quantitativa sobre a cinética de formação do aducto através da diminuição progressiva da absorvência máxima a 293 nm correspondente ao grupo maleimida, a diferentes temperaturas (35, 50, 65 ºC) Reciprocamente, a correspondente reacção de retro-DA foi seguida a 90 ºC através do aumento do mesmo pico. A reversibilidade destes sistemas foi verificada com sucesso após uma sequência de ciclos de DA/retro-DA. Adicionalmente, verificou-se que os espectros originaram um ponto isosbéstico, provando que estes sistemas não envolvem quaisquer reacções secundárias. Uma vez que foi usado um excesso de FA, as reacções de DA modelo apresentaram um comportamento cinético de pseudo-primeira ordem, com a constante de velocidade k mais alta (2.1x10-5 dm3mol-1s-1) para T=65 ºC. A correspondente energia de activação foi de 39.0 kJ.mol-1. A reacção de retro-DA seguiu um comportamento de primeira ordem, com constante de velocidade de 1.6x10-6 s-1. A evolução deste sistema por RMN de 1H a 65ºC deu-nos informações mais detalhadas sobre a sua evolução estrutural, ou seja, à medida que a intensidade dos picos atribuídos à formação do aducto aumentaram progressivamente ao longo do tempo, os pertencentes aos reagentes iniciais diminuiram proporcionalmente. O “rendimento final”, calculado após 20 dias à temperatura ambiente, foi de aproximadamente 70%. A reacção de retro-DA foi depois seguida a 90ºC, observando-se tal como na espectroscopia de UV, o deslocamento da reacção no sentido da regeneração dos reagentes de partida. A viabilidade de múltiplos ciclos de DA/retro-DA estabelecidos pela espectroscopia de UV foi igualmente confirmada por RMN de 1H. O passo seguinte envolveu o estudo de um sistema de policondensação linear baseado no crescimento gradual por reacção de DA entre um monómero bisfurânico A-A e um do tipo bismaleimida B-B, seguindo a mesma abordagem que no sistema modelo. O poliaducto linear foi obtido a partir de soluções equimolares dos monómeros, por reacção de DA a 65ºC. O progresso desta polimerização foi seguido por espectroscopia de UV e RMN de 1H e, mais qualitativamente, pelo aumento da viscosidade do meio. A reacção seguiu um comportamento de segunda ordem, com uma constante de velocidade de 9.4x10-6 dm3mol-1s-1, e observou-se novamente um ponto isosbéstico nos dados de UV. Os espectros de RMN apresentaram o padrão esperado, nomeadamente o aumento progressivo dos sinais associados ao aducto e a correspondente diminuição dos grupos furano e maleimida livres. A despolimerização do poliaducto através da reacção de retro-DA foi seguida a 110ºC usando as mesmas técnicas. Os dados de UV mostraram o retorno progressivo da absorção dos grupos de maleimida, seguindo um comportamento cinético de primeira ordem, com constante de velocidade de 2.5x10-6 s-1, até à completa regeneração de ambos os monómeros. Os espectros de RMN providenciaram mais uma vez informação estrutural sobre o progresso da despolimerização, a qual foi acompanhada por uma diminuição progressiva da viscosidade. Adicionalmente, para seguir a retro- DA, adicionou-se um excesso de composto furânico monofuncional, nomeadamente o 2,5-dimetilfurano (DMFu), ao sistema de modo a bloquear as funções maleimida complementares, evitando assim a repolimerização após arrefecimento. Os productos isolados foram então o monómero bisfurânico AA, DMFu que não reagiu e o bisaducto não-polimerizável de BB com DMFu. Este resultado indicou claramente que o polímero foi de facto revertido nos seus monómeros durante a reacção de retro-DA. O terceiro sistema estudado foi outra polimerização linear, seguindo as mesmas condições experimentais que os anteriores, mas com uma estratégia diferente de modo a contornar o problema clássico de assegurar a estequiometria exacta dos monómeros. As estruturas dos monómeros utilizados incorporam ambos os grupos reactivos, i.e, moléculas do tipo A-B. A polimerização prematura destes monómeros intrinsecamente reactivos foi evitada com a protecção do grupo maleimida na forma de um aducto de DA com furano, até a incorporação do substituinte furânico na outra extremidade. Portanto, a policondensação destes monómeros foi iniciada após a desprotecção in situ deste composto mediante aquecimento, seguido de arrefecimento até à temperatura adequada para polimerizar. Os resultados obtidos por UV e RMN sugerem que de facto o uso de monómeros do tipo A-B oferece um melhor sistema linear. Em seguida, foram estudados sistemas de policondensação não-linear por reacção de DA, entre monómeros (um ou ambos) com funcionalidade superior a dois, nomeadamente sistemas do tipo A3+B-B ou A-A+B3, seguindo mais uma vez as mesmas condições experimentais. Uma vez que utilizam monómeros complementares contendo, em média, mais de duas funcionalidades, estes sistemas conduzem a materiais reticulados. Nestes estudos, foram usadas três razões molares de [maleimida]/[furano], nomeadamente 1.0, 0.75 e 0.5, de modo a estudar ambas as situações de não-gelificação e reticulação. Ambos sistemas apresentaram um comportamento regular e boa reciclabilidade quer para gerar situações que possam conduzir à formação de redes a diferentes graus de conversão, ou que possam parar antes da sua obtenção, conforme previsto pela equação de Flory-Stockmayer. Como esperado, a utilização de grupos complementares em quantidades estequiométricas produziu o espessamento mais rápido e a reticulação quase completa; à medida que a quantidade relativa de monómero trifuncional decresceu, as reacções pararam antes da reticulação, ou seja, originaram meios altamente viscosos contendo polímeros solúveis altamente ramificados. As reacções de retro-DA a 110 ºC conduziram à gradual dissolução das partículas de gel (quando presentes), tendo sido comprovado pelos espectros de UV e de RMN de 1H, evidenciado a regeneração dos monómeros. Tal como no sistema do tipo A-A+B-B, a reacção de retro-DA foi seguida adicionando um excesso de DMFu ao sistema reaccional. Como esperado, os produtos finais foram os monómeros furânicos, o DMFu em excesso e o trisaducto ou o bisaducto maleimida-DMFu, o que confirma a eficiência da despolimerização com regeneração dos monómeros iniciais. O último sistema de policondensação por reacção de DA envolveu um monómero assimetricamente substituído do tipo AB2, capaz de originar estruturas macromoleculares hiper-ramificadas que não reticulam. Este estudo preliminar deste sistema foi seguido nas mesmas condições experimentais que os anteriores, apresentando um comportamento com as características esperadas.