742 resultados para probabilistic programs
Resumo:
The Western United States can best be described as a vast, varying land, with the high plains to the east and the jagged horizons of Rockies to the west. However there is one common trait shared by these states: the lack of water resources. With the continued development of this land, the fact that water is scarce is becoming more real. This issue became more difficult to handle as the public became more aware that many competing uses existed for the finite resource, and those different uses were degrading the natural environments of the surface waters. With this realization instream flow policies provides a comprehensive account of the policy framework a selected number of western states have established in order to protect instream flows and the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Also included is the identification of key policies that should be promoted or removed from a state's instream flow program. Ultimately, this thesis continues to add the the ever-evolving process of modernizing water law frameworks.
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We are living in a day of change. Environmental awareness is a part of our everyday life in a way unprecedented in history. The courts, in their infinite wisdom, have initiated the joint and several liability (deep pocket) rules that make everyone at risk in almost all situations. Bird management programs, by their very nature, are extremely sensitive. Any project, if not evaluated, planned, carried out, and documented properly can result in adverse regulatory agency action, bad publicity, and even fines or lawsuits. Proper photographic documentation can play a vital part in helping to provide the necessary records to help prevent problems and/or defend yourself in case of lawsuit or regulatory action. In the preparation of this paper, we surveyed state pesticide lead agencies, state Department of Conservation (Fish and Wildlife) agencies, some U.S. Fish and Wildlife Law Enforcement personnel, and several individuals to get their reaction to and their comments about this concept of supplemental recordkeeping. Of those responding, a majority thought the concept of supplemental photographic recordkeeping would be an asset to individuals and organi¬zations conducting bird management projects.
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This panel session explores how the dynamics of race and gender within university settings influence Asian women’s experiences in graduate psychology programs.
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This study aimed to identify how the graduate programs in nursing stricto sensu evaluated by the Nursing field at Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel, in the triennium 2007-2009, achieved excellence - grade 6. Descriptive exploratory study of nature documentary, which examined the data of Reports Indicators of these Programs at the site of the Coordination cited, in 2010. We analyzed 99 chips of 33 programs for the triennium 2007 to 2009, grouped in sub-clauses of Social and item categories for grades 6/7. Presents the indicators of excellence of Americans and Brazilians Programs, the results of the triennial assessment relating to sub-items of item 5 and the description of program performance specified for the grade 6. It follows that the excellence of Programs has been gradually achieved, with performance in certain categories as those required by international standards, overcoming the obstacles to the achievement of excellence in all its fullness.
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In order to succeed in biological control programs, not only is it crucial to understand the number of natural enemies to be released but also on how many sites per area this releasing must be performed. These variables might differ deeply among egg parasitoid species and crops worked. Therefore, these trials were carried out to evaluate the parasitism (%) in eggs of Anticarsia gemmatalis and Pseudoplusia includens after the release of different densities of the egg parasitoid Trichogramma pretiosum. Field dispersal was also studied, in order to determine appropriate recommendations for the release of this parasitoid in soybean fields. The regression analysis between parasitism (%) and densities of the parasitoid indicated a quadratic effect for both A. gemmatalis and P. includens. The maximum parasitism within 24 h after the release was reached with densities of 25.6 and 51.2 parasitoids per host egg, respectively, for the two pests. Parasitism of T. pretiosum in eggs of P. includens decreased linearly as the distance of the pest eggs from the parasitoid release sites increased. For P. includens, the mean radius of T. pretiosum action and the area of parasitoid dispersal in the soybean crop were 8.01 m and 85.18 m(2), respectively. We conclude that for a successful biological control program of lepidopteran pests using T. pretiosum in soybean fields, a density of 25.6 parasitoids per host egg, divided into 117 sites per hectare, should be used.
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Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of circuit-based exercise on the body composition in obese older women by focusing on physical exercise and body weight (BW) gain control in older people. Methods: Seventy older women (>60 years old) voluntarily took part in the study. Participants were randomized into six different groups according to body mass index (BMI): appropriate weight (AW) control (AWC) and trained (AWT) groups, overweight (OW) control (OWC) and trained (OWT) groups, and obesity (O) control (OC) and trained (OT) groups. The exercise program consisted of 50 minutes of exercise three times per week for 12 weeks. The exercises were alternated between upper and lower body using rest between sets for 40 seconds with intensity controlled by heart rate (70% of work). The contraction time established was 5 seconds to eccentric and concentric muscular action phase. The following anthropometric parameters were evaluated: height (m), body weight (BW, kg), body fat (BF, %), fat mass (FM, kg), lean mass (LM, kg), and BMI (kg/m(2)). Results: The values (mean +/- standard deviation [SD]) of relative changes to BW (-8.0% +/- 0.8%), BF (-21.4% +/- 2.1%), LM (3.0% +/- 0.3%), and FM (-31.2% +/- 3.0%) to the OT group were higher (P < .05) than in the AWT (BW: -2.0% +/- 1.1%; BF: -4.6% +/- 1.8%; FM: -7.0% +/- 2.8%; LM: 0.2% +/- 1.1%) and OWT (BW: -4.5% +/- 1.0%; BF: -11.0% +/- 2.2%; FM: -16.1% +/- 3.2%; LM: -0.2% +/- 1.0%) groups; additionally, no differences were found for C groups. While reduction (P < .03) in BMI according to absolute values was observed for all trained groups (AWT: 22 +/- 1 versus 21 +/- 1; OWT: 27 +/- 1 versus 25 +/- 1, OT: 34 +/- 1 versus 30 +/- 1) after training, no differences were found for C groups. Conclusion: In summary, circuit-based exercise is an effective method for promoting reduction in anthropometrics parameters in obese older women.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.
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Patterns of species interactions affect the dynamics of food webs. An important component of species interactions that is rarely considered with respect to food webs is the strengths of interactions, which may affect both structure and dynamics. In natural systems, these strengths are variable, and can be quantified as probability distributions. We examined how variation in strengths of interactions can be described hierarchically, and how this variation impacts the structure of species interactions in predator-prey networks, both of which are important components of ecological food webs. The stable isotope ratios of predator and prey species may be particularly useful for quantifying this variability, and we show how these data can be used to build probabilistic predator-prey networks. Moreover, the distribution of variation in strengths among interactions can be estimated from a limited number of observations. This distribution informs network structure, especially the key role of dietary specialization, which may be useful for predicting structural properties in systems that are difficult to observe. Finally, using three mammalian predator-prey networks ( two African and one Canadian) quantified from stable isotope data, we show that exclusion of link-strength variability results in biased estimates of nestedness and modularity within food webs, whereas the inclusion of body size constraints only marginally increases the predictive accuracy of the isotope-based network. We find that modularity is the consequence of strong link-strengths in both African systems, while nestedness is not significantly present in any of the three predator-prey networks.
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Background: Shift work was recently described as a factor that increases the risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. In addition, rats born to mothers subjected to a phase shift throughout pregnancy are glucose intolerant. However, the mechanism by which a phase shift transmits metabolic information to the offspring has not been determined. Among several endocrine secretions, phase shifts in the light/dark cycle were described as altering the circadian profile of melatonin production by the pineal gland. The present study addresses the importance of maternal melatonin for the metabolic programming of the offspring. Methodology/Principal Findings: Female Wistar rats were submitted to SHAM surgery or pinealectomy (PINX). The PINX rats were divided into two groups and received either melatonin (PM) or vehicle. The SHAM, the PINX vehicle and the PM females were housed with male Wistar rats. Rats were allowed to mate and after weaning, the male and female offspring were subjected to a glucose tolerance test (GTT), a pyruvate tolerance test (PTT) and an insulin tolerance test (ITT). Pancreatic islets were isolated for insulin secretion, and insulin signaling was assessed in the liver and in the skeletal muscle by western blots. We found that male and female rats born to PINX mothers display glucose intolerance at the end of the light phase of the light/dark cycle, but not at the beginning. We further demonstrate that impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and hepatic insulin resistance are mechanisms that may contribute to glucose intolerance in the offspring of PINX mothers. The metabolic programming described here occurs due to an absence of maternal melatonin because the offspring born to PINX mothers treated with melatonin were not glucose intolerant. Conclusions/Significance: The present results support the novel concept that maternal melatonin is responsible for the programming of the daily pattern of energy metabolism in their offspring.
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Osmoregulatory mechanisms can be vulnerable to electrolyte and/or endocrine environmental changes during the perinatal period, differentially programming the developing offspring and affecting them even in adulthood. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether availability of hypertonic sodium solution during the perinatal period may induce a differential programming in adult offspring osmoregulatory mechanisms. With this aim, we studied water and sodium intake after Furosemide-sodium depletion in adult offspring exposed to hypertonic sodium solution from 1 week before mating until postnatal day 28 of the offspring, used as a perinatal manipulation model [PM-Na group]. In these animals, we also identified the cell population groups in brain nuclei activated by Furosemide-sodium depletion treatment, analyzing the spatial patterns of Fos and Fos-vasopressin immunoreactivity. In sodium depleted rats, sodium and water intake were significantly lower in the PM-Na group vs. animals without access to hypertonic sodium solution [PM-Ctrol group]. Interestingly, when comparing the volumes consumed of both solutions in each PM group, our data show the expected significant differences between both solutions ingested in the PM-Ctrol group, which makes an isotonic cocktail: however, in the PM-Na group there were no significant differences in the volumes of both solutions consumed after Furosemide-sodium depletion, and therefore the sodium concentration of total fluid ingested by this group was significantly higher than that in the PM-Ctrol group. With regard to brain Fos immunoreactivity, we observed that Furosemide-sodium depletion in the PM-Na group induced a higher number of activated cells in the subfornical organ, ventral subdivision of the paraventricular nucleus and vasopressinergic neurons of the supraoptic nucleus than in the PM-Ctrol animals. Moreover, along the brainstem, we found a decreased number of sodium depletion-activated cells within the nucleus of the solitary tract of the PM-Na group. Our data indicate that early sodium availability induces a long-term effect on fluid drinking and on the cell activity of brain nuclei involved in the control of hydromineral balance. These results also suggest that availability of a rich source of sodium during the perinatal period may provoke a larger anticipatory response in the offspring, activating the vasopressinergic system and reducing thirst after water and sodium depletion, as a result of central osmosensitive mechanism alterations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Objective: To describe and analyze the teaching of the Integrated Management of hildhood Illness (IMCI) strategy on Brazilian undergraduate nursing programs. Method: Integrating an international multicentric study, a cross-sectional online survey was conducted between May and October 2010 with 571 undergraduate nursing programs in Brazil Results: Responses were received from 142 programs, 75% private and 25% public. 64% of them included the IMCI strategy in the theoretical content, and 50% of the programs included IMCI as part of the students’ practical experience. The locations most used for practical teaching were primary health care units. The ‘treatment’ module was taught by the fewest number of programs, and few programs had access to the IMCI instructional manuals. All programs used exams for evaluation, and private institutions were more likely to include class participation as part of the evaluation. Teaching staff in public institutions were more likely to have received training in teaching IMCI. Conclusion: In spite of the relevance of the IMCI strategy in care of the child, its content is not addressed in all undergraduate programs in Brazil, and many programs do not have access to the IMCI teaching manuals and have not provide training in IMCI to their teaching staff.
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Abstract Background Due to the growing number of outbreaks of infection in hospital nurseries, it becomes essential to set up a sanitation program that indicates that the appropriate chemical agent was chosen for application in the most effective way. Method For the purpose of evaluating the efficacy of a chemical agent, the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) was reached by the classic method of successive broth dilutions. The reference bacteria utilized were Bacillus subtilis var. globigii ATCC 9372, Bacillus stearothermophilus ATCC 7953, Escherichia coli ATCC 25922, Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923. The strains of Enterobacter cloacae IAL 1976 (Adolfo Lutz Institute), Serratia marcescens IAL 1478 and Acinetobactev calcoaceticus IAL 124 (ATCC 19606), were isolated from material collected from babies involved in outbreaks of infection in hospital nurseries. Results The MIC intervals, which reduced bacteria populations over 08 log10, were: 59 to 156 mg/L of quaternarium ammonium compounds (QACs); 63 to 10000 mg/L of chlorhexidine digluconate; 1375 to 3250 mg/L of glutaraldehyde; 39 to 246 mg/L of formaldehyde; 43750 to 87500 mg/L of isopropanol or ethanol; 1250 to 6250 mg/L of iodine in polyvinyl-pyrolidone complexes, 150 to 4491 mg/L of chlorine-releasing-agents (CRAs); 469 to 2500 mg/L of hydrogen peroxide; and, 2310 to 18500 mg/L of peracetic acid. Conclusions Chlorhexidine showed non inhibitory activity over germinating spores. A. calcoaceticus, was observed to show resistance to the majority of the agents tested, followed by E. cloacae and S. marcescens.
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Public health strategies to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality should focus on global cardiometabolic risk reduction. The efficacy of lifestyle changes to prevent type 2 diabetes have been demonstrated, but low-cost interventions to reduce cardiometabolic risk in Latin-America have been rarely reported. Our group developed 2 programs to promote health of high-risk individuals attending a primary care center in Brazil. This study compared the effects of two 9-month lifestyle interventions, one based on medical consultations (traditional) and another with 13 multi-professional group sessions in addition to the medical consultations (intensive) on cardiometabolic parameters. Adults were eligible if they had pre-diabetes (according to the American Diabetes Association) and/or metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria for Latin-America). Data were expressed as means and standard deviations or percentages and compared between groups or testing visits. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 180 individuals agreed to participate (35.0% men, mean age 54.7 ± 12.3 years, 86.1% overweight or obese). 83 were allocated to the traditional and 97 to the intensive program. Both interventions reduced body mass index, waist circumference and tumor necrosis factor-α. Only intensive program reduced 2-hour plasma glucose and blood pressure and increased adiponectin values, but HDL-cholesterol increased only in the traditional. Also, responses to programs were better in intensive compared to traditional program in terms of blood pressure and adiponectin improvements. No new case of diabetes in intensive but 3 cases and one myocardial infarction in traditional program were detected. Both programs induced metabolic improvement in the short-term, but if better results in the intensive are due to higher awareness about risk and self-motivation deserves further investigation. In conclusion, these low-cost interventions are able to minimize cardiometabolic risk factors involved in the progression to type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease.