Integrating OpenMI and Uncertweb:managing uncertainty in OpenMI models

OpenMI is a widely used standard allowing exchange of data between integrated models, which has mostly been applied to dynamic, deterministic models. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project we are developing mechanisms and tools to support the management of uncertainty in environmental models. In this paper we explore the integration of the UncertWeb framework with OpenMI, to assess the issues that arise when propagating uncertainty in OpenMI model compositions, and the degree of integration possible with UncertWeb tools. In particular we develop an uncertainty-enabled model for a simple Lotka-Volterra system with an interface conforming to the OpenMI standard, exploring uncertainty in the initial predator and prey levels, and the parameters of the model equations. We use the Elicitator tool developed within UncertWeb to identify the initial condition uncertainties, and show how these can be integrated, using UncertML, with simple Monte Carlo propagation mechanisms. The mediators we develop for OpenMI models are generic and produce standard Web services that expose the OpenMI models to a Web based framework. We discuss what further work is needed to allow a more complete system to be developed and show how this might be used practically.

Phylogenetic and ecological significance in the evolution of Cetacean tonal sounds

Cetaceans are aquatic mammals that rely primarily on sound for most daily tasks. A compendium of sounds is emitted for orientation, prey detection, and predator avoidance, and to communicate. Communicative sounds are among the most studied Cetacean signals, particularly those referred to as tonal sounds. Because tonal sounds have been studied especially well in social dolphins, it has been assumed these sounds evolved as a social adaptation. However, whistles have been reported in ‘solitary’ species and have been secondarily lost three times in social lineages. Clearly, therefore, it is necessary to examine closely the association, if any, between whistles and sociality instead of merely assuming it. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolutionary history of Cetacean tonal sounds. The main goal of this dissertation is to cast light on the evolutionary history of tonal sounds by testing these hypotheses by combining comparative phylogenetic and field methods. This dissertation provides the first species-level phylogeny of Cetacea and phylogenetic tests of evolutionary hypotheses of cetacean communicative signals. Tonal sounds evolution is complex in that has likely been shaped by a combination of factors that may influence different aspects of their acoustical structure. At the inter-specific level, these results suggest that only tonal sound minimum frequency is constrained by body size. Group size also influences tonal sound minimum frequency. Species that live in large groups tend to produce higher frequency tonal sounds. The evolutionary history of tonal sounds and sociality may be intertwined, but in a complex manner rejecting simplistic views such as the hypothesis that tonal sounds evolved ‘for’ social communication in dolphins. Levels of social and tonal sound complexity nevertheless correlate indicating the importance of tonal sounds in social communication. At the intraspecific level, tonal sound variation in frequency and temporal parameters may be product of genetic isolation and local levels of underwater noise. This dissertation provides one of the first insights into the evolution of Cetacean tonal sounds in a phylogenetic context, and points out key species where future studies would be valuable to enrich our understanding of other factors also playing a role in tonal sound evolution. ^

Habitat use and foraging ecology of a batoid community in Shark Bay, Western Australia

Worldwide declines in populations of large elasmobranchs and the potential cascading effects on marine ecosystems have garnered considerable attention. Far less appreciated are the potential ecological impacts of changes in abundances of small to medium bodied elasmobranchs mesopredators. Crucial to elucidating the role of these elasmobranchs is an understanding of their habitat use and foraging ecology in pristine conditions. I investigated the trophic interactions and factors driving spatiotemporal variation in abundances of elasmobranch mesopredators in the relatively pristine ecosystem of Shark Bay, Australia. First, I describe the species composition and seasonal habitat use patterns of elasmobranch mesopredator on the sandflats of Shark Bay. Juvenile batoids dominated this diverse community and were extremely abundant in nearshore microhabitats during the warm season. Stomach content analysis and stable isotopic analysis revealed that there is a large degree of dietary overlap between common batoid species. Crustaceans, which tend to be found in seagrass habitats, dominated diets. Despite isotopic differences between many species, overlap in isotopic niche space was high and there was some degree of individual specialization. I then, investigated the importance of abiotic (temperature and water depth) and biotic (prey and predator abundance) factors in shaping batoid habitat use. Batoids were most abundant and tended to rest in shallow nearshore waters when temperatures were high. This pattern coincides with periods of large shark abundance suggesting batoids were seeking refuge from predators rather than selecting optimal temperatures. Finally, I used acoustic telemetry to examine batoid residency and diel use of the sandflats. Individual batoids were present on the sandflats during both the warm and cold seasons and throughout the diel cycle, suggesting lower sandflat densities during the cold season were a result of habitat shifts rather than migration out of Shark Bay. Combined, habitat use and dietary results suggest that batoids have the potential to seasonally impact sandflat dynamics through their presence, although foraging may be limited on the sandflats. Interestingly, my results suggest that elasmobranch mesopredators in pristine ecosystems probably are not regulated by food supply and their habitat use patterns and perhaps ecosystem impacts may be influenced by their predators.

The influence of body size on the ecology of coastal fish predators in the Bahamas

Body size is a fundamental structural characteristic of organisms, determining critical life history and physiological traits, and influencing population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. For my dissertation, I focused on effects of body size on habitat use and diet of important coastal fish predators, as well as their influence on faunal communities in Bahamian wetlands. First, using acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis, I identified high variability in movement patterns and habitat use among individuals within a gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and schoolmaster snapper (L. apodus) population. This intrapopulation variation was not explained by body size, but by individual behavior in habitat use. Isotope values differed between individuals that moved further distances and individuals that stayed close to their home sites, suggesting movement differences were related to specific patterns of foraging behavior. Subsequently, while investigating diet of schoolmaster snapper over a two-year period using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, I also found intrapopulation diet variation, mostly explained by differences in size class, individual behavior and temporal variability. I then developed a hypothesis-testing framework examining intrapopulation niche variation between size classes using stable isotopes. This framework can serve as baseline to categorize taxonomic or functional groupings into specific niche shift scenarios, as well as to help elucidate underlying mechanisms causing niche shifts in certain size classes. Finally, I examined the effect of different-sized fish predators on epifaunal community structure in shallow seagrass beds using exclusion experiments at two spatial scales. Overall, I found that predator effects were rather weak, with predator size and spatial scale having no impact on the community. Yet, I also found some evidence of strong interactions on particular common snapper prey. As Bahamian wetlands are increasingly threatened by human activities (e.g., overexploitation, habitat degradation), an enhanced knowledge of the ecology of organisms inhabiting these systems is crucial for developing appropriate conservation and management strategies. My dissertation research contributed to this effort by providing critical information about the resource use of important Bahamian fish predators, as well as their effect on faunal seagrass communities.

Physical factors influencing the distribution of a top predator in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary

We used longline fishing to determine the effects of distance from the ocean, season, and short-term variation in abiotic conditions on the abundance of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in an estuary of the Florida Everglades, U.S.A. Logistic regression revealed that young-of-the-year sharks were concentrated at a protected site 20 km upstream and were present in greater abundance when dissolved oxygen (DO) levels were high. For older juvenile sharks (age 1+), DO levels had the greatest influence on catch probabilities followed by distance from the ocean; they were most likely to be caught at sites with .3.5 mg L21 DO and on the main branch of the river 20 km upstream. Salinity had a relatively small effect on catch rates and there were no seasonal shifts in shark distribution. Our results highlight the importance of considering DO as a possible driver of top predator distributions in estuaries, even in the absence of hypoxia. In Everglades estuaries hydrological drivers that affect DO levels (e.g., groundwater discharge, modification of primary productivity through nutrient fluxes) will be important in determining shark distributions, and the effects of planned ecosystem restoration efforts on bull sharks will not simply be mediated by changing salinity regimes and the location of the oligohaline zone. More generally, variation in DO levels could structure the nature and spatiotemporal pattern of top predator effects in the coastal Everglades, and other tropical and subtropical estuaries, because of interspecific variation in reliance on DO within the top predator guild.

American Alligator Digestion Rate of Blue Crabs and Its Implications for Stomach Contents Analysis

Stomach contents analysis (SCA) provides a snap-shot observation of a consumer's diet. Interpretation of SCA data can be complicated by many factors, including variation in gastric residence times and digestion rates among prey taxa. Although some SCA methods are reported to efficiently remove all stomach contents, the effectiveness of these techniques has rarely been tested for large irregular shaped prey with hard exoskeletons. We used a controlled feeding trial to estimate gastric residency time and decomposition rate of a large crustacean prey item, the Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus), which is consumed by American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), an abundant apex predator in coastal habitats of the southeastern United States. The decomposition rate of C. sapidus in the stomachs of A. mississippiensis followed a predictable pattern, and some crab pieces remained in stomachs for at least 14 days. We also found that certain portions of C. sapidus were prone to becoming caught within the stomach or esophagus, meaning not all crab parts are consistently recovered using gastric lavage techniques. However, because the state of decomposition of crabs was predictable, it is possible to estimate time since consumption for crabs recovered from wild alligators. This information, coupled with a detailed understanding of crab distributions and alligator movement tactics could help elucidate patterns of cross-ecosystem foraging by the American Alligator in coastal habitats.

Influence of teleost abundance on the distribution and abundance of sharks in Florida Bay, USA

Understanding the factors that influence the distribution and abundance of predators, including sharks, is important for predicting the impacts of human changes to the environment. Such studies are particularly important in Florida Bay, USA where there are planned large-scale changes to patterns of freshwater input from the Everglades ecosystem. Studies of many marine predators suggest that links between predator and prey habitat use may vary with spatial scale, but there have been few studies of the role of prey distribution in shaping habitat use and abundance of sharks. We used longline catches of sharks and trawls for potential teleost prey to determine the influence of teleost abundance on shark abundance at the scale of regions and habitats in Florida Bay. We found that shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) was not linked to CPUE ofteleosts at the scale of sampling sites, but shark CPUE was positively correlated with the mean CPUE for teleosts within a region. Although there does not appear to be a strong match between the abundance of teleosts and sharks at small spatial scales, regional shark abundance is likely driven, at least partially, by the availability of prey. Management strategies that influence teleost abundance will have cascading effects to higher trophic levels in Florida Bay.

Microhabitat Selection by Marine Mesoconsumers in a Thermally Heterogeneous Habitat: Behavioral Thermoregulation or Avoiding Predation Risk?

Habitat selection decisions by consumers has the potential to shape ecosystems. Understanding the factors that influence habitat selection is therefore critical to understanding ecosystem function. This is especially true of mesoconsumers because they provide the link between upper and lower tropic levels. We examined the factors influencing microhabitat selection of marine mesoconsumers – juvenile giant shovelnose rays (Glaucostegus typus), reticulate whiprays (Himantura uarnak), and pink whiprays (H. fai) – in a coastal ecosystem with intact predator and prey populations and marked spatial and temporal thermal heterogeneity. Using a combination of belt transects and data on water temperature, tidal height, prey abundance, predator abundance and ray behavior, we found that giant shovelnose rays and reticulate whiprays were most often found resting in nearshore microhabitats, especially at low tidal heights during the warm season. Microhabitat selection did not match predictions derived from distributions of prey. Although at a course scale, ray distributions appeared to match predictions of behavioral thermoregulation theory, fine-scale examination revealed a mismatch. The selection of the shallow nearshore microhabitat at low tidal heights during periods of high predator abundance (warm season) suggests that this microhabitat may serve as a refuge, although it may come with metabolic costs due to higher temperatures. The results of this study highlight the importance of predators in the habitat selection decisions of mesoconsumers and that within thermal gradients, factors, such as predation risk, must be considered in addition to behavioral thermoregulation to explain habitat selection decisions. Furthermore, increasing water temperatures predicted by climate change may result in complex trade-offs that might have important implications for ecosystem dynamics.

Perceived Risk of Predation Affects Reproductive Life - History Traits in Gambusia holbrooki, but Not in Heterandria formosa

Key to predicting impacts of predation is understanding the mechanisms through which predators impact prey populations. While consumptive effects are well-known, non-consumptive predator effects (risk effects) are increasingly being recognized as important. Studies of risk effects, however, have focused largely on how trade-offs between food and safety affect fitness. Less documented, and appreciated, is the potential for predator presence to directly suppress prey reproduction and affect life-history characteristics. For the first time, we tested the effects of visual predator cues on reproduction of two prey species with different reproductive modes, lecithotrophy (i.e. embryonic development primarily fueled by yolk) and matrotrophy (i.e. energy for embryonic development directly supplied by the mother to the embryo through a vascular connection). Predation risk suppressed reproduction in the lecithotrophic prey (Gambusia holbrokii) but not the matrotroph (Heterandria formosa). Predator stress caused G. holbrooki to reduce clutch size by 43%, and to produce larger and heavier offspring compared to control females. H. formosa, however, did not show any such difference. In G. holbrooki we also found a significantly high percentage (14%) of stillbirths in predator-exposed treatments compared to controls (2%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first direct empirical evidence of predation stress affecting stillbirths in prey. Our results suggest that matrotrophy, superfetation (clutch overlap), or both decrease the sensitivity of mothers to environmental fluctuation in resource (food) and stress (predation risk) levels compared to lecithotrophy. These mechanisms should be considered both when modeling consequences of perceived risk of predation on prey-predator population dynamics and when seeking to understand the evolution of reproductive modes.

No Free Lunch: Displaced Marsh Consumers Regulate a Prey Subsidy to an Estuarine Consumer

Pulse subsidies account for a substantial proportion of resource availability in many systems, having persistent and cascading effects on consumer population dynamics, and energy flow within and across ecosystem boundaries. Although the importance of pulsed resource subsidies is well-established, the mechanisms that regulate resource fluxes across ecosystem boundaries are not well understood. The aim of our study was to determine the extent that marsh consumers regulated a marsh prey subsidy to estuarine consumers in the oligohaline reaches of an Everglades estuary. We characterized a marsh pulsed subsidy of cyprinodontoid, invertebrate and sunfish prey that move into the upper estuary from adjacent drying marshes. In response to the prey pulse, we examined the numerical, fitness and dietary responses of three focal consumers in the upper estuary; two marsh species (largemouth bass and bowfin) that accompanied the subsidy as a result of marsh drying, and one estuarine consumer (snook). At the onset of marsh drying and the prey subsidy, estuarine consumers switched diets to consume the larger marsh prey (sunfishes), while bass and bowfin maintained similar diets (cyprinodontoids and invertebrates respectively) than pre and post subsidy. From the consumption of this subsidy, bass (marsh species) and snook (estuarine species) exhibited fitness gains while bowfin did not. Although both marsh and estuarine consumers benefitted from the subsidy, we found evidence that freshwater consumers shunted some of the subsidy away from snook. Of the prey sampled in consumer stomachs, 41% of marsh prey biomass was eaten by marsh consumers, while 59% was consumed by the estuarine consumer. We conclude that the amount of the marsh prey available to estuarine consumers may be greater in the absence of marsh consumers, thus the magnitude of the prey subsidy could depend on the dynamics of the marsh consumers from donor communities.

The Relationship Between Water Level, Prey Availability and Reproductive Success in Roseate Spoonbills Foraging in a Seasonally-Flooded Wetland While Nesting in Florida Bay

The coastal wetlands of northeastern Florida Bay are seasonally-inundated dwarf mangrove habitat and serve as a primary foraging ground for wading birds nesting in Florida Bay. A common paradigm in pulse-inundated wetlands is that prey base fishes increase in abundance while the wetland is flooded and then become highly concentrated in deeper water refuges as water levels recede, becoming highly available to wading birds whose nesting success depends on these concentrations. Although widely accepted, the relationship between water levels, prey availability and nesting success has rarely been quantified. I examine this paradigm using Roseate Spoonbills that nest on the islands in northeastern Florida Bay and forage on the mainland. Spoonbill nesting success and water levels on their foraging grounds have been monitored since 1987 and prey base fishes have been systematically sampled at as many as 10 known spoonbill foraging sites since 1990. Results demonstrated that the relationship between water level and prey abundance was not linear but rather there is likely a threshold, or series of thresholds, in water level that result in concentrated prey. Furthermore, the study indicates that spoonbills require water level-induced prey concentrations in order to have enough food available to successfully raise young.

Effects of an extreme temperature event on the behavior and age structure of an estuarine top predator, Carcharhinus leucas

The frequency of extreme environmental events is predicted to increase in the future. Understanding the short- and long-term impacts of these extreme events on large-bodied predators will provide insight into the spatial and temporal scales at which acute environmental disturbances in top-down processes may persist within and across ecosystems. Here, we use long-term studies of movements and age structure of an estuarine top predator—juvenile bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas—to identify the effects of an extreme ‘cold snap’ from 2 to 13 January 2010 over short (weeks) to intermediate (months) time scales. Juvenile bull sharks are typically year-round residents of the Shark River Estuary until they reach 3 to 5 yr of age. However, acoustic telemetry revealed that almost all sharks either permanently left the system or died during the cold snap. For 116 d after the cold snap, no sharks were detected in the system with telemetry or captured during longline sampling. Once sharks returned, both the size structure and abundance of the individuals present in the nursery had changed considerably. During 2010, individual longlines were 70% less likely to capture any sharks, and catch rates on successful longlines were 40% lower than during 2006−2009. Also, all sharks caught after the cold snap were young-of-the-year or neonates, suggesting that the majority of sharks in the estuary were new recruits and several cohorts had been largely lost from the nursery. The longer-term impacts of this change in bull shark abundance to the trophic dynamics of the estuary and the importance of episodic disturbances to bull shark population dynamics will require continued monitoring, but are of considerable interest because of the ecological roles of bull sharks within coastal estuaries and oceans.