Estimation of fuzzy memberships from histograms

Based on the conclusions drawn in the bijective transformation between possibility and probability, a method is proposed to estimate the fuzzy membership function for pattern recognition purposes. A rational function approximation to the probability density function is obtained from the histogram of a finite (and sometimes very small) number of samples. This function is normalized such that the highest ordinate is one. The parameters representing the rational function are used for classifying the pattern samples based on a max-min decision rule. The method is illustrated with examples.

State Dependent Attempt Rate Modeling of Single Cell IEEE 802.11 WLANs with Homogeneous Nodes and Poisson Arrivals

Analytical models of IEEE 802.11-based WLANs are invariably based on approximations, such as the well-known mean-field approximations proposed by Bianchi for saturated nodes. In this paper, we provide a new approach for modeling the situation when the nodes are not saturated. We study a State Dependent Attempt Rate (SDAR) approximation to model M queues (one queue per node) served by the CSMA/CA protocol as standardized in the IEEE 802.11 DCF. The approximation is that, when n of the M queues are non-empty, the attempt probability of the n non-empty nodes is given by the long-term attempt probability of n saturated nodes as provided by Bianchi's model. This yields a coupled queue system. When packets arrive to the M queues according to independent Poisson processes, we provide an exact model for the coupled queue system with SDAR service. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an analysis of the coupled queue process by studying a lower dimensional process and by introducing a certain conditional independence approximation. We show that the numerical results obtained from our finite buffer analysis are in excellent agreement with the corresponding results obtained from ns-2 simulations. We replace the CSMA/CA protocol as implemented in the ns-2 simulator with the SDAR service model to show that the SDAR approximation provides an accurate model for the CSMA/CA protocol. We also report the simulation speed-ups thus obtained by our model-based simulation.

Polypharmacy among inpatients aged 70 years or older in Australia

Objectives To investigate medication changes for older patients admitted to hospital and to explore associations between patient characteristics and polypharmacy. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants and setting Patients aged 70 years or older admitted to general medical units of 11 acute care hospitals in two Australian states between July 2005 and May 2010. All patients were assessed using the interRAI assessment system for acute care. Main outcome measures Measures of physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning; and number of regular prescribed medications categorised into three groups: non-polypharmacy (0–4 drugs), polypharmacy (5–9 drugs) and hyperpolypharmacy (≥ 10 drugs). Results Of 1220 patients who were recruited for the study, medication records at admission were available for 1216. Mean age was 81.3 years (SD, 6.8 years), and 659 patients (54.2%) were women. For the 1187 patients with complete medication records on admission and discharge, there was a small but statistically significant increase in mean number of regular medications per day between admission and discharge (7.1 v 7.6), while the prevalence of medications such as statins (459 [38.7%] v 457 [38.5%] patients), opioid analgesics (155 [13.1%] v 166 [14.0%] patients), antipsychotics (59 [5.0%] v 65 [5.5%] patients) and benzodiazepines (122 [10.3%] v 135 [11.4%] patients) did not change significantly. Being in a higher polypharmacy category was significantly associated with increase in comorbidities (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20–1.34), presence of pain (OR, 1.31; 1.05–1.64), dyspnoea (OR, 1.64; 1.30–2.07) and dependence in terms of instrumental activities of daily living (OR, 1.70; 1.20–2.41). Hyperpolypharmacy was observed in 290/1216 patients (23.8%) at admission and 336/1187 patients (28.3%) on discharge, and the proportion of preventive medication in the hyperpolypharmacy category at both points in time remained high (1209/3371 [35.9%] at admission v 1508/4117 [36.6%] at discharge). Conclusions Polypharmacy is common among older people admitted to general medical units of Australian hospitals, with no clinically meaningful change to the number or classification (symptom control, prevention or both) of drugs made by treating physicians.

Rebecca Bardach? Portraits Women

post card, mailed to: ega bardach, vienna

Wisdom in the military context

On the basis of the Berlin wisdom paradigm, we define wisdom in the military context as expert knowledge and judgment concerning in extremis military operations. We measured wisdom in the military context by asking participants to give advice to an inexperienced officer facing an in extremis operation; subsequently, we coded their responses. Data were provided by 74 senior noncommissioned officers (NCOs) in the U.S. defense forces. In support of convergent validity, wisdom in the military context was positively related to general objective wisdom and general self-assessed wisdom. Relationships of wisdom in the military context and general objective wisdom with Big Five personality characteristics were nonsignificant, whereas general self-assessed wisdom was positively related to extraversion, agreeableness, and openness to experience, and it was negatively related to neuroticism. The findings provide initial support for the validity of the new wisdom in the military context measure. We discuss several implications for future research and practice regarding wisdom in the military context.

The Spin-Statistics Relation and Noncommutative Quantum Field Theory

The efforts of combining quantum theory with general relativity have been great and marked by several successes. One field where progress has lately been made is the study of noncommutative quantum field theories that arise as a low energy limit in certain string theories. The idea of noncommutativity comes naturally when combining these two extremes and has profound implications on results widely accepted in traditional, commutative, theories. In this work I review the status of one of the most important connections in physics, the spin-statistics relation. The relation is deeply ingrained in our reality in that it gives us the structure for the periodic table and is of crucial importance for the stability of all matter. The dramatic effects of noncommutativity of space-time coordinates, mainly the loss of Lorentz invariance, call the spin-statistics relation into question. The spin-statistics theorem is first presented in its traditional setting, giving a clarifying proof starting from minimal requirements. Next the notion of noncommutativity is introduced and its implications studied. The discussion is essentially based on twisted Poincaré symmetry, the space-time symmetry of noncommutative quantum field theory. The controversial issue of microcausality in noncommutative quantum field theory is settled by showing for the first time that the light wedge microcausality condition is compatible with the twisted Poincaré symmetry. The spin-statistics relation is considered both from the point of view of braided statistics, and in the traditional Lagrangian formulation of Pauli, with the conclusion that Pauli's age-old theorem stands even this test so dramatic for the whole structure of space-time.

Bayesian synthetic likelihood

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

Identifying advanced practice: A national survey of a nursing workforce

Background The size and flexibility of the nursing workforce has positioned nursing as central to the goals of health service improvement. Nursing's response to meeting these goals has resulted in proliferation of advanced practice nursing with a confusing array of practice profiles, titles and roles. Whilst numerous models and definitions of advanced practice nursing have been developed there is scant published research of significant scope that supports these models. Consequently there is an ongoing call in the literature for clarity and stability in nomenclature, and confusion in the health industry on how to optimise the utility of advanced practice nursing. Objectives To identify and delineate advanced practice from other levels of nursing practice through examination of a national nursing workforce. Design A cross-sectional electronic survey of nurses using the validated Advanced Practice Role Delineation tool based on the Strong Model of Advanced Practice. Participants Study participants were registered nurses employed in a clinical service environment across all states and territories of Australia. Methods A sample of 5662 registered nurses participated in the study. Domain means for each participant were calculated then means for nursing position titles were calculated. Position titles were grouped by delineation and were compared with one-way analysis of variance on domain means. The alpha for all tests was set at 0.05. Significant effects were examined with Scheffe post hoc comparisons to control for Type 1 error. Results The survey tool was able to identify position titles where nurses were practicing at an advanced level and to delineate this cohort from other levels of nursing practice, including nurse practitioner. The results show that nurses who practice at an advanced level are characterised by high mean scores across all Domains of the Strong Model of Advanced Practice. The mean scores of advanced practice nurses were significantly different from nurse practitioners in the Direct Care Domain and significantly different from other levels of nurse across all domains. Conclusions The study results show that the nurse practitioner, advanced practice nurse and foundation level registered nurse have different patterns of practice and the Advanced Practice Role Delineation tool has the capacity to clearly delineate and define advanced practice nursing. These findings make a significant contribution to the international debate and show that the profession can now identify what is and what is not advanced practice in nursing.

Boundedness and convergence of singular integrals on fractal type sets

The topic of this dissertation lies in the intersection of harmonic analysis and fractal geometry. We particulary consider singular integrals in Euclidean spaces with respect to general measures, and we study how the geometric structure of the measures affects certain analytic properties of the operators. The thesis consists of three research articles and an overview. In the first article we construct singular integral operators on lower dimensional Sierpinski gaskets associated with homogeneous Calderón-Zygmund kernels. While these operators are bounded their principal values fail to exist almost everywhere. Conformal iterated function systems generate a broad range of fractal sets. In the second article we prove that many of these limit sets are porous in a very strong sense, by showing that they contain holes spread in every direction. In the following we connect these results with singular integrals. We exploit the fractal structure of these limit sets, in order to establish that singular integrals associated with very general kernels converge weakly. Boundedness questions consist a central topic of investigation in the theory of singular integrals. In the third article we study singular integrals of different measures. We prove a very general boundedness result in the case where the two underlying measures are separated by a Lipshitz graph. As a consequence we show that a certain weak convergence holds for a large class of singular integrals.

Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20 through (i) reduced frost damage (~10 improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10 improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Impact of malnutrition on 12-month mortality following acute hip fracture

Background Studies investigating the relationship between malnutrition and post-discharge mortality following acute hip fracture yield conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether malnutrition independently predicted 12-month post-fracture mortality after adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. Methods An ethics approved, prospective, consecutive audit was undertaken for all surgically treated hip fracture inpatients admitted to a dedicated orthogeriatric unit (November 2010–October 2011). The 12-month mortality data were obtained by a dual search of the mortality registry and Queensland Health database. Malnutrition was evaluated using the Subjective Global Assessment. Demographic (age, gender, admission residence) and clinical covariates included fracture type, time to surgery, anaesthesia type, type of surgery, post-surgery time to mobilize and post-operative complications (delirium, pulmonary and deep vein thrombosis, cardiac complications, infections). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was retrospectively applied. All diagnoses were confirmed by the treating orthogeriatrician. Results A total of 322 of 346 patients were available for audit. Increased age (P = 0.004), admission from residential care (P < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (P = 0.007), malnutrition (P < 0.001), time to mobilize >48 h (P < 0.001), delirium (P = 0.003), pulmonary embolism (P = 0.029) and cardiovascular complication (P = 0.04) were associated with 12-month mortality. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that malnutrition (odds ratio (OR) 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–4.7, P = 0.007)), in addition to admission from residential care (OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.3–5.3, P = 0.005)) and pulmonary embolism (OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.5–78.7, P = 0.017)), independently predicted 12-month mortality. Conclusions Findings substantiate malnutrition as an independent predictor of 12-month mortality in a representative sample of hip fracture inpatients. Effective strategies to identify and treat malnutrition in hip fracture should be prioritized.

A survey and analysis of the GNSS spoofing threat and countermeasures

Detection and prevention of global network satellite system (GNSS) “spoofing” attacks, or the broadcast of false global navigation satellite system services, has recently attracted much research interest. This survey aims to fill three gaps in the literature: first, to assess in detail the exact nature of threat scenarios posed by spoofing against the most commonly cited targets; second, to investigate the many practical impediments, often underplayed, to carrying out GNSS spoofing attacks in the field; and third, to survey and assess the effectiveness of a wide range of proposed defences against GNSS spoofing. Our conclusion lists promising areas of future research.

IASDR 2015 Interplay Exhibition 2-5 NOV 2015

It has been said that we are living in a golden age of innovation. New products, systems and services aimed to enable a better future, have emerged from novel interconnections between design and design research with science, technology and the arts. These intersections are now, more than ever, catalysts that enrich daily activities for health and safety, education, personal computing, entertainment and sustainability, to name a few. Interactive functions made possible by new materials, technology, and emerging manufacturing solutions demonstrate an ongoing interplay between cross-disciplinary knowledge and research. Such interactive interplay bring up questions concerning: (i) how art and design provide a focus for developing design solutions and research in technology; (ii) how theories emerging from the interactions of cross-disciplinary knowledge inform both the practice and research of design and (iii) how research and design work together in a mutually beneficial way. The IASDR2015 INTERPLAY EXHIBITION provides some examples of these interconnections of design research with science, technology and the arts. This is done through the presentation of objects, artefacts and demonstrations that are contextualised into everyday activities across various areas including health, education, safety, furniture, fashion and wearable design. The exhibits provide a setting to explore the various ways in which design research interacts across discipline knowledge and approaches to stimulate innovation. In education, Designing South African Children’s Health Education as Generative Play (A Bennett, F Cassim, M van der Merwe, K van Zijil, and M Ribbens) presents a set of toolkits that resulted from design research entailing generative play. The toolkits are systems that engender pleasure and responsibility, and are aimed at cultivating South African’s youth awareness of nutrition, hygiene, disease awareness and prevention, and social health. In safety, AVAnav: Avalanche Rescue Helmet (Jason Germany) delivers an interactive system as a tool to contribute to reduce the time to locate buried avalanche victims. Helmet-mounted this system responds to the contextual needs of rescuers and has since led to further design research on the interface design of rescuing devices. In apparel design and manufacturing, Shrinking Violets: Fashion design for disassembly (Alice Payne) proposes a design for disassembly through the use of beautiful reversible mono-material garments that interactively responds to the challenges of garment construction in the fashion industry, capturing the metaphor for the interplay between technology and craft in the fashion manufacturing industry. Harvest: A biotextile future (Dean Brough and Alice Payne), explores the interplay of biotechnology, materiality and textile design in the creation of sustainable, biodegradable vegan textile through the process of a symbiotic culture of bacteria and yeast (SCOBY). SCOBY is a pellicle curd that can be harvested, machine washed, dried and cut into a variety of designs and texture combinations. The exploration of smart materials, wearable design and micro-electronics led to creative and aesthetically coherent stimulus-reactive jewellery; Symbiotic Microcosms: Crafting Digital Interaction (K Vones). This creation aims to bridge the gap between craft practitioner and scientific discovery, proposing a move towards the notion of a post-human body, where wearable design is seen as potential ground for new human-computer interactions, affording the development of visually engaging multifunctional enhancements. In furniture design, Smart Assistive chair for older adults (Chao Zhao) demonstrates how cross-disciplinary knowledge interacting with design strategies provide solution that employed new technological developments in older aged care, and the participation of multiple stakeholders: designers, health care system and community based health systems. In health, Molecular diagnosis system for newborns deafness genetic screening (Chao Zhao) presents an ambitious and complex project that includes a medical device aimed at resolving a number of challenges: technical feasibility for city and rural contexts, compatibility with standard laboratory and hospital systems, access to health system, and support the work of different hospital specialists. The interplay between cross-disciplines is evident in this work, demonstrating how design research moves forward through technology developments. These works exemplify the intersection between domains as a means to innovation. Novel design problems are identified as design intersects with the various areas. Research informs this process, and in different ways. We see the background investigation into the contextualising domain (e.g. on-snow studies, garment recycling, South African health concerns, the post human body) to identify gaps in the area and design criteria; the technologies and materials reviews (e.g. AR, biotextiles) to offer plausible technical means to solve these, as well as design criteria. Theoretical reviews can also inform the design (e.g. play, flow). These work together to equip the design practitioner with a robust set of ‘tools’ for design innovation – tools that are based in research. The process identifies innovative opportunity and criteria for design and this, in turn, provides a means for evaluating the success of the design outcomes. Such an approach has the potential to come full circle between research and design – where the design can function as an exemplar, evidencing how the research-articulated problems can be solved. Core to this, however, is the evaluation of the design outcome itself and identifying knowledge outcomes. In some cases, this is fairly straightforward that is, easily measurable. For example the efficacy of Jason Germany’s helmet can be determined by measuring the reduced response time in the rescuer. Similarly the improved ability to recycle Payne’s panel garments can be clearly determined by comparing it to those recycling processes (and her identified criteria of separating textile elements!); while the sustainability and durability of the Brough & Payne’s biotextile can be assessed by documenting the growth and decay processes, or comparative strength studies. There are however situations where knowledge outcomes and insights are not so easily determined. Many of the works here are open-ended in their nature, as they emphasise the holistic experience of one or more designs, in context: “the end result of the art activity that provides the health benefit or outcome but rather, the value lies in the delivery and experience of the activity” (Bennet et al.) Similarly, reconfiguring layers of laser cut silk in Payne’s Shrinking Violets constitutes a customisable, creative process of clothing oneself since it “could be layered to create multiple visual effects”. Symbiotic Microcosms also has room for facilitating experience, as the work is described to facilitate “serendipitous discovery”. These examples show the diverse emphasis of enquiry as on the experience versus the product. Open-ended experiences are ambiguous, multifaceted and differ from person to person and moment to moment (Eco 1962). Determining the success is not always clear or immediately discernible; it may also not be the most useful question to ask. Rather, research that seeks to understand the nature of the experience afforded by the artefact is most useful in these situations. It can inform the design practitioner by helping them with subsequent re-design as well as potentially being generalizable to other designers and design contexts. Bennett et. al exemplify how this may be approached from a theoretical perspective. This work is concerned with facilitating engaging experiences to educate and, ultimately impact on that community. The research is concerned with the nature of that experience as well, and in order to do so the authors have employed theoretical lenses – here these are of flow, pleasure, play. An alternative or complementary approach to using theory, is using qualitative studies such as interviews with users to ask them about what they experienced? Here the user insights become evidence for generalising across, potentially revealing insight into relevant concerns – such as the range of possible ‘playful’ or experiences that may be afforded, or the situation that preceded a ‘serendipitous discovery’. As shown, IASDR2015 INTERPLAY EXHIBITION provides a platform for exploration, discussion and interrogation around the interplay of design research across diverse domains. We look forward with excitement as IASDR continues to bring research and design together, and as our communities of practitioners continue to push the envelope of what is design and how this can be expanded and better understood with research to foster new work and ultimately, stimulate innovation.

Computationally efficient optimum weighting function for vector quantization of LSF parameters

We propose a new weighting function which is computationally simple and an approximation to the theoretically derived optimum weighting function shown in the literature. The proposed weighting function is perceptually motivated and provides improved vector quantization performance compared to several weighting functions proposed so far, for line spectrum frequency (LSF) parameter quantization of both clean and noisy speech data.