The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Molecular modeling study of the binding and signaling properties of the TCRpMHC complex

The activation of the specific immune response against tumor cells is based on the recognition by the CD8+ Cytotoxic Τ Lymphocytes (CTL), of antigenic peptides (p) presented at the surface of the cell by the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC). The ability of the so-called T-Cell Receptors (TCR) to discriminate between self and non-self peptides constitutes the most important specific control mechanism against infected cells. The TCR/pMHC interaction has been the subject of much attention in cancer therapy since the design of the adoptive transfer approach, in which Τ lymphocytes presenting an interesting response against tumor cells are extracted from the patient, expanded in vitro, and reinfused after immunodepletion, possibly leading to cancer regression. In the last decade, major progress has been achieved by the introduction of engineered lypmhocytes. In the meantime, the understanding of the molecular aspects of the TCRpMHC interaction has become essential to guide in vitro and in vivo studies. In 1996, the determination of the first structure of a TCRpMHC complex by X-ray crystallography revealed the molecular basis of the interaction. Since then, molecular modeling techniques have taken advantage of crystal structures to study the conformational space of the complex, and understand the specificity of the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR. In the meantime, experimental techniques used to determine the sequences of TCR that bind to a pMHC complex have been used intensively, leading to the collection of large repertoires of TCR sequences that are specific for a given pMHC. There is a growing need for computational approaches capable of predicting the molecular interactions that occur upon TCR/pMHC binding without relying on the time consuming resolution of a crystal structure. This work presents new approaches to analyze the molecular principles that govern the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR and the subsequent activation of the T-cell. We first introduce TCRep 3D, a new method to model and study the structural properties of TCR repertoires, based on homology and ab initio modeling. We discuss the methodology in details, and demonstrate that it outperforms state of the art modeling methods in predicting relevant TCR conformations. Two successful applications of TCRep 3D that supported experimental studies on TCR repertoires are presented. Second, we present a rigid body study of TCRpMHC complexes that gives a fair insight on the TCR approach towards pMHC. We show that the binding mode of the TCR is correctly described by long-distance interactions. Finally, the last section is dedicated to a detailed analysis of an experimental hydrogen exchange study, which suggests that some regions of the constant domain of the TCR are subject to conformational changes upon binding to the pMHC. We propose a hypothesis of the structural signaling of TCR molecules leading to the activation of the T-cell. It is based on the analysis of correlated motions in the TCRpMHC structure. - L'activation de la réponse immunitaire spécifique dirigée contre les cellules tumorales est basée sur la reconnaissance par les Lymphocytes Τ Cytotoxiques (CTL), d'un peptide antigénique (p) présenté à la suface de la cellule par le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité de classe I (MHC). La capacité des récepteurs des lymphocytes (TCR) à distinguer les peptides endogènes des peptides étrangers constitue le mécanisme de contrôle le plus important dirigé contre les cellules infectées. L'interaction entre le TCR et le pMHC est le sujet de beaucoup d'attention dans la thérapie du cancer, depuis la conception de la méthode de transfer adoptif: les lymphocytes capables d'une réponse importante contre les cellules tumorales sont extraits du patient, amplifiés in vitro, et réintroduits après immunosuppression. Il peut en résulter une régression du cancer. Ces dix dernières années, d'importants progrès ont été réalisés grâce à l'introduction de lymphocytes modifiés par génie génétique. En parallèle, la compréhension du TCRpMHC au niveau moléculaire est donc devenue essentielle pour soutenir les études in vitro et in vivo. En 1996, l'obtention de la première structure du complexe TCRpMHC à l'aide de la cristallographie par rayons X a révélé les bases moléculaires de l'interaction. Depuis lors, les techniques de modélisation moléculaire ont exploité les structures expérimentales pour comprendre la spécificité de la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR. Dans le même temps, de nouvelles techniques expérimentales permettant de déterminer la séquence de TCR spécifiques envers un pMHC donné, ont été largement exploitées. Ainsi, d'importants répertoires de TCR sont devenus disponibles, et il est plus que jamais nécessaire de développer des approches informatiques capables de prédire les interactions moléculaires qui ont lieu lors de la liaison du TCR au pMHC, et ce sans dépendre systématiquement de la résolution d'une structure cristalline. Ce mémoire présente une nouvelle approche pour analyser les principes moléculaires régissant la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR, et l'activation du lymphocyte qui en résulte. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons TCRep 3D, une nouvelle méthode basée sur les modélisations par homologie et ab initio, pour l'étude de propriétés structurales des répertoires de TCR. Le procédé est discuté en détails et comparé à des approches standard. Nous démontrons ainsi que TCRep 3D est le plus performant pour prédire des conformations pertinentes du TCR. Deux applications à des études expérimentales des répertoires TCR sont ensuite présentées. Dans la seconde partie de ce travail nous présentons une étude de complexes TCRpMHC qui donne un aperçu intéressant du mécanisme d'approche du pMHC par le TCR. Finalement, la dernière section se concentre sur l'analyse détaillée d'une étude expérimentale basée sur les échanges deuterium/hydrogène, dont les résultats révèlent que certaines régions clés du domaine constant du TCR sont sujettes à un changement conformationnel lors de la liaison au pMHC. Nous proposons une hypothèse pour la signalisation structurelle des TCR, menant à l'activation du lymphocyte. Celle-ci est basée sur l'analyse des mouvements corrélés observés dans la structure du TCRpMHC.

Altruism, equity and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: An encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motivesmust be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recentmodels of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism-based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compareleading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. Wethen offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches,thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determiningthe relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition,the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we findthat intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruisticconsiderations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

The lender of last resort: A 21st Century approach

The object of this paper is to analyze rigorously the role of a Lender ofLast Resort by providing a framework where the distinction betweeninsolvency and illiquidity is not clearly cut. Determining the optimalLender of Last Resort policy requires a careful modeling of the structureof the interbank market and of the closure policy. In our set up, theresults depend upon the existence of moral hazard. If the main source ofmoral hazard is the banks lack of incentives to screen loans, then theLender of Last Resort may have to intervene to improve the e¢ciency of anunsecured interbank market; if instead, the main source of moral hazard isloans monitoring, then the interbank market should be secured and theLender of Last Resort should never intervene.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Exon-primed intron-crossing (EPIC) markers as a tool for ant phylogeography

Exon-primed intron-crossing (EPIC) markers as a tool for ant phylogeography. Due to their local abundance, diversity of adaptations and worldwide distribution, ants are a classic example of adaptive radiation. Despite this evolutionary and ecological importance, phylogeographical studies on ants have relied largely on mitochondrial markers. In this study we design and test exon-primed intron-crossing (EPIC) markers, which can be widely used to uncover ant intraspecific variation. Candidate markers were obtained through screening the available ant genomes for unlinked conserved exonic regions interspersed with introns. A subset of 15 markers was tested in vitro and showed successful amplification in several phylogenetically distant ant species. These markers represent an important step forward in ant phylogeography and population genetics, allowing for more extensive characterization of variation in ant nuclear DNA without the need to develop species-specific markers.

Ecological assembly rules in plant communities--approaches, patterns and prospects.

Understanding how communities of living organisms assemble has been a central question in ecology since the early days of the discipline. Disentangling the different processes involved in community assembly is not only interesting in itself but also crucial for an understanding of how communities will behave under future environmental scenarios. The traditional concept of assembly rules reflects the notion that species do not co-occur randomly but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition. This concept can be redefined in a more general framework where the co-occurrence of species is a product of chance, historical patterns of speciation and migration, dispersal, abiotic environmental factors, and biotic interactions, with none of these processes being mutually exclusive. Here we present a survey and meta-analyses of 59 papers that compare observed patterns in plant communities with null models simulating random patterns of species assembly. According to the type of data under study and the different methods that are applied to detect community assembly, we distinguish four main types of approach in the published literature: species co-occurrence, niche limitation, guild proportionality and limiting similarity. Results from our meta-analyses suggest that non-random co-occurrence of plant species is not a widespread phenomenon. However, whether this finding reflects the individualistic nature of plant communities or is caused by methodological shortcomings associated with the studies considered cannot be discerned from the available metadata. We advocate that more thorough surveys be conducted using a set of standardized methods to test for the existence of assembly rules in data sets spanning larger biological and geographical scales than have been considered until now. We underpin this general advice with guidelines that should be considered in future assembly rules research. This will enable us to draw more accurate and general conclusions about the non-random aspect of assembly in plant communities.

A cell therapy approach for erythropoietin delivery using encapsulated human primary fibroblasts

Summary Cell therapy has emerged as a strategy for the treatment of various human diseases. Cells can be transplanted considering their morphological and functional properties to restore a tissue damage, as represented by blood transfusion, bone marrow or pancreatic islet cells transplantation. With the advent of the gene therapy, cells also were used as biological supports for the production of therapeutic molecules that can act either locally or at distance. This strategy represents the basis of ex vivo gene therapy characterized by the removal of cells from an organism, their genetic modification and their implantation into the same or another individual in a physiologically suitable location. The tissue or biological function damage dictates the type of cells chosen for implantation and the required function of the implanted cells. The general aim of this work was to develop an ex vivo gene therapy approach for the secretion of erythropoietin (Epo) in patients suffering from Epo-responsive anemia, thus extending to humans, studies previously performed with mouse cells transplanted in mice and rats. Considering the potential clinical application, allogeneic primary human cells were chosen for practical and safety reasons. In contrast to autologous cells, the use of allogeneic cells allows to characterize a cell lineage that can be further transplanted in many individuals. Furthermore allogeneic cells avoid the potential risk of zoonosis encountered with xenogeneic cells. Accordingly, the immune reaction against this allogeneic source was prevented by cell macro- encapsulation that prevents cell-to-cell contact with the host immune system and allows to easy retrieve the implanted device. The first step consisted in testing the survival of various human primary cells that were encapsulated and implanted for one month in the subcutaneous tissue of immunocompetent and naturally or therapeutically immunodepressed mice, assuming that xenogeneic applications constitute a stringent and representative screening before human transplantation. A fibroblast lineage from the foreskin of a young donor, DARC 3.1 cells, showed the highest mean survival score. We have then performed studies to optimize the manufacturing procedures of the encapsulation device for successful engraftment. The development of calcifications on the polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) matrix serving as a scaffold for enclosed cells into the hollow fiber devices was reported after one month in vivo. Various parameters, including matrix rinsing solutions, batches of PVA and cell lineages were assessed for their respective role in the development of the phenomenon. We observed that the calcifications could be totally prevented by using ultra-pure sterile water instead of phosphate buffer saline solution in the rinsing procedure of the PVA matrix. Moreover, a higher lactate dehydrogenase activity of the cells was found to decrease calcium depositions due to more acidic microenvironment, inhibiting the calcium precipitation. After the selection of the appropriate cell lineage and the optimization of encapsulation conditions, a retroviral-based approach was applied to DARC 3.1 fibroblasts for the transduction of the human Epo cDNA. Various modifications of the retroviral vector and the infection conditions were performed to obtain clinically relevant levels of human Epo. The insertion of a post-transcriptional regulatory element from the woodchuck hepatitis virus as well as of a Kozak consensus sequence led to a 7.5-fold increase in transgene expression. Human Epo production was further optimized by increasing the multiplicity of infection and by selecting high producer cells allowing to reach 200 IU hEpo/10E6 cells /day. These modified cells were encapsulated and implanted in vivo in the same conditions as previously described. All the mouse strains showed a sustained increase in their hematocrit and a high proportion of viable cells were observed after retrieval of the capsules. Finally, in the perspective of human application, a syngeneic model using encapsulated murine myoblasts transplanted in mice was realized to investigate the roles of both the host immune response and the cells metabolic requirements. Various loading densities and anti-inflammatory as well as immunosuppressive drugs were studied. The results showed that an immune process is responsible of cell death in capsules loaded at high cell density. A supporting matrix of PVA was shown to limit the cell density and to avoid early metabolic cell death, preventing therefore the immune reaction. This study has led to the development of encapsulated cells of human origin producing clinically relevant amounts of human EPO. This work resulted also to the optimization of cell encapsulation technical parameters allowing to begin a clinical application in end-stage renal failure patients. Résumé La thérapie cellulaire s'est imposée comme une stratégie de traitement potentiel pour diverses maladies. Si l'on considère leur morphologie et leur fonction, les cellules peuvent être transplantées dans le but de remplacer une perte tissulaire comme c'est le cas pour les transfusions sanguines ou les greffes de moelle osseuse ou de cellules pancréatiques. Avec le développement de la thérapie génique, les cellules sont également devenues des supports biologiques pour la production de molécules thérapeutiques. Cette stratégie représente le fondement de la thérapie génique ex vivo, caractérisée par le prélèvement de cellules d'un organisme, leur modification génétique et leur implantation dans le même individu ou dans un autre organisme. Le choix du type de cellule et la fonction qu'elle doit remplir pour un traitement spécifique dépend du tissu ou de la fonction biologique atteintes. Le but général de ce travail est de développer .une approche par thérapie génique ex vivo de sécrétion d'érythropoïétine (Epo) chez des patients souffrant d'anémie, prolongeant ainsi des travaux réalisés avec des cellules murines implantées chez des souris et des rats. Dans cette perpective, notre choix s'est porté sur des cellules humaines primaires allogéniques. En effet, contrairement aux cellules autologues, une caractérisation unique de cellules allogéniques peut déboucher sur de nombreuses applications. Par ailleurs, l'emploi de cellules allogéniques permet d'éviter les riques de zoonose que l'on peut rencontrer avec des cellules xénogéniques. Afin de protéger les cellules allogéniques soumises à une réaction immunitaire, leur confinement dans des macro-capsules cylindriques avant leur implantation permet d'éviter leur contact avec les cellules immunitaires de l'hôte, et de les retrouver sans difficulté en cas d'intolérance ou d'effet secondaire. Dans un premier temps, nous avons évalué la survie de différentes lignées cellulaires humaines primaires, une fois encapsulées et implantées dans le tissu sous-cutané de souris, soit immunocompétentes, soit immunodéprimées naturellement ou par l'intermédiaire d'un immunosuppresseur. Ce modèle in vivo correspond à des conditions xénogéniques et représente par conséquent un environnement de loin plus hostile pour les cellules qu'une transplantation allogénique. Une lignée fibroblastique issue du prépuce d'un jeune enfant, nommée DARC 3 .1, a montré une remarquable résistance avec un score de survie moyen le plus élevé parmi les lignées testées. Par la suite, nous nous sommes intéressés aux paramètres intervenant dans la réalisation du système d'implantation afin d'optimaliser les conditions pour une meilleure adaptation des cellules à ce nouvel environnement. En effet, en raison de l'apparition, après un mois in vivo, de calcifications au niveau de la matrice de polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) servant de support aux cellules encapsulées, différents paramètres ont été étudiés, tels que les procédures de fabrication, les lots de PVA ou encore les lignées cellulaires encapsulées, afin de mettre en évidence leur rôle respectif dans la survenue de ce processus. Nous avons montré que l'apparition des calcifications peut être totalement prévenue par l'utilisation d'eau pure au lieu de tampon phosphaté lors du rinçage des matrices de PVA. De plus, nous avons observe qu'un taux de lactate déshydrogénase cellulaire élevé était corrélé avec une diminution des dépôts de calcium au sein de la matrice en raison d'un micro-environnement plus acide inhibant la précipitation du calcium. Après sélection de la lignée cellulaire appropriée et de l'optimisation des conditions d'encapsulation, une modification génétique des fibroblastes DARC 3.1 a été réalisée par une approche rétrovirale, permettant l'insertion de l'ADN du gène de l'Epo dans le génome cellulaire. Diverses modifications, tant au niveau génétique qu'au niveau des conditions d'infection, ont été entreprises afin d'obtenir des taux de sécrétion d'Epo cliniquement appropriés. L'insertion dans la séquence d'ADN d'un élément de régulation post¬transcriptionnelle dérivé du virus de l'hépatite du rongeur (« woodchuck ») ainsi que d'une séquence consensus appelée « Kozak » ont abouti à une augmentation de sécrétion d'Epo 7.5 fois plus importante. De même, l'optimisation de la multiplicité d'infection et la sélection plus drastique des cellules hautement productrices ont permis finalement d'obtenir une sécrétion correspondant à 200 IU d'Epo/10E6 cells/jour. Ces cellules génétiquement modifiées ont été encapsulées et implantées in vivo dans les mêmes conditions que celles décrites plus haut. Toutes les souris transplantées ont montré une augmentation significative de leur hématocrite et une proportion importante de cellules présentait une survie conservée au moment de l'explantation des capsules. Finalement, dans la perspective d'une application humaine, un modèle syngénique a été proposé, basé sur l'implantation de myoblastes murins encapsulés dans des souris, afin d'investiguer les rôles respectifs de la réponse immunitaire du receveur et des besoins métaboliques cellulaires sur leur survie à long terme. Les cellules ont été encapsulées à différentes densités et les animaux transplantés se sont vus administrer des injections de molécules anti-inflammatoires ou immunosuppressives. Les résultats ont démontré qu'une réaction immunologique péri-capsulaire était à la base du rejet cellulaire dans le cas de capsules à haute densité cellulaire. Une matrice de PVA peut limiter cette densité et éviter une mort cellulaire précoce due à une insuffisance métabolique et par conséquent prévenir la réaction immunitaire. Ce travail a permis le développement de cellules encapsulées d'origine humaine sécrétant des taux d'Epo humaine adaptés à des traitements cliniques. De pair avec l'optimalisation des paramètres d'encapsulation, ces résultats ont abouti à l'initiation d'une application clinique destinée à des patients en insuffisance rénale terminale.

Molecular modeling of peptide-MHC class I complexes : applications to peptide based immunotherapy

Summary The specific CD8+ T cell immune response against tumors relies on the recognition by the T cell receptor (TCR) on cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) of antigenic peptides bound to the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule. Such tumor associated antigenic peptides are the focus of tumor immunotherapy with peptide vaccines. The strategy for obtaining an improved immune response often involves the design of modified tumor associated antigenic peptides. Such modifications aim at creating higher affinity and/or degradation resistant peptides and require precise structures of the peptide-MHC class I complex. In addition, the modified peptide must be cross-recognized by CTLs specific for the parental peptide, i.e. preserve the structure of the epitope. Detailed structural information on the modified peptide in complex with MHC is necessary for such predictions. In this thesis, the main focus is the development of theoretical in silico methods for prediction of both structure and cross-reactivity of peptide-MHC class I complexes. Applications of these methods in the context of immunotherapy are also presented. First, a theoretical method for structure prediction of peptide-MHC class I complexes is developed and validated. The approach is based on a molecular dynamics protocol to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its MHC environment. The sampled conformers are evaluated using conformational free energy calculations. The method, which is evaluated for its ability to reproduce 41 X-ray crystallographic structures of different peptide-MHC class I complexes, shows an overall prediction success of 83%. Importantly, in the clinically highly relevant subset of peptide-HLAA*0201 complexes, the prediction success is 100%. Based on these structure predictions, a theoretical approach for prediction of cross-reactivity is developed and validated. This method involves the generation of quantitative structure-activity relationships using three-dimensional molecular descriptors and a genetic neural network. The generated relationships are highly predictive as proved by high cross-validated correlation coefficients (0.78-0.79). Together, the here developed theoretical methods open the door for efficient rational design of improved peptides to be used in immunotherapy. Résumé La réponse immunitaire spécifique contre des tumeurs dépend de la reconnaissance par les récepteurs des cellules T CD8+ de peptides antigéniques présentés par les complexes majeurs d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I. Ces peptides sont utilisés comme cible dans l'immunothérapie par vaccins peptidiques. Afin d'augmenter la réponse immunitaire, les peptides sont modifiés de façon à améliorer l'affinité et/ou la résistance à la dégradation. Ceci nécessite de connaître la structure tridimensionnelle des complexes peptide-CMH. De plus, les peptides modifiés doivent être reconnus par des cellules T spécifiques du peptide natif. La structure de l'épitope doit donc être préservée et des structures détaillées des complexes peptide-CMH sont nécessaires. Dans cette thèse, le thème central est le développement des méthodes computationnelles de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I et de la reconnaissance croisée. Des applications de ces méthodes de prédiction à l'immunothérapie sont également présentées. Premièrement, une méthode théorique de prédiction des structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I est développée et validée. Cette méthode est basée sur un échantillonnage de l'espace conformationnel du peptide dans le contexte du récepteur CMH classe I par dynamique moléculaire. Les conformations sont évaluées par leurs énergies libres conformationnelles. La méthode est validée par sa capacité à reproduire 41 structures des complexes peptide-CMH classe I obtenues par cristallographie aux rayons X. Le succès prédictif général est de 83%. Pour le sous-groupe HLA-A*0201 de complexes de grande importance pour l'immunothérapie, ce succès est de 100%. Deuxièmement, à partir de ces structures prédites in silico, une méthode théorique de prédiction de la reconnaissance croisée est développée et validée. Celle-ci consiste à générer des relations structure-activité quantitatives en utilisant des descripteurs moléculaires tridimensionnels et un réseau de neurones couplé à un algorithme génétique. Les relations générées montrent une capacité de prédiction remarquable avec des valeurs de coefficients de corrélation de validation croisée élevées (0.78-0.79). Les méthodes théoriques développées dans le cadre de cette thèse ouvrent la voie du design de vaccins peptidiques améliorés.

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensic science denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstrated its potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite the numerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensic framework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its own strategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without a clear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose a methodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance of considering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particular forensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtful and relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enables a better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in order to obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratory comparisons.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments