Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Determination of testosterone misuse in sport, an international comparative study

Introduction: Urinary steroid profiling is used in doping controls to detect testosterone abuse. A testosterone over epitestosterone (T/E) ratio exceeding 4.0 is considered as suspicious of testosterone administration, irrespectively of individual heterogeneous factors such as the athlete's ethnicity. A deletion polymorphism in the UGT2B17 gene was demonstrated to account for a significant part of the inter-individual variability in the T/E between Caucasians and Asians. However, the anti-doping strategy includes the determination of carbon isotope ratio on androgen metabolites which has been demonstrated to be reliable for the direct detection of testosterone misuse. Herein, we examined the profiles and the variability in the 13C/12Cratios of urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different world countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South-Africa, Switzerland and Uganda). Aim: The determination of threshold values based on genotype information and diet specific of the ethnicity is expected to enhance significantly the detection of testosterone misuse. Methods: The steroid profile of 57 Africans, 32 Asians, 50 Caucasians and 32 Hispanics was determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The carbon isotope ratio of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Results: Significant differences have been observed between all ethnic groups. After estimation of the prevalence of the UGT2B17 deletion/deletion genotype (African:22%; Asian:81%; Caucasian:10%; Hispanic:7%), ethnicspecific thresholds were developed for a specificity of 99% for the T/E (African:5.6; Asian:3.8; Caucasian:5.7; Hispanic:5.8). Italian and Swiss populations recorded an enrichment in 13C of the urinary steroids with respect to the other groups, thereby supporting consumption of a relatively larger proportion of C3 plants in their diet. Noteworthy, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were well below the established threshold value for positive cases. Conclusion: These profiling results demonstrate that a unique and nonspecific threshold to evidence testosterone misuse is not fit for purpose. In addition, the carbon isotopic ratio from these different diet groups highlight the importance to adapt the criteria for increasing the sensitivity in the detection of exogenous testosterone. In conclusion, it may be emphasized that combining the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry including refined interpretation criteria for positivity and the subject-based profiling of steroids will most probably improve the efficiency of the confirmatory test.

The stationary distribution of a continuously varying strategy in a class-structured population under mutation-selection-drift balance.

Many traits and/or strategies expressed by organisms are quantitative phenotypes. Because populations are of finite size and genomes are subject to mutations, these continuously varying phenotypes are under the joint pressure of mutation, natural selection and random genetic drift. This article derives the stationary distribution for such a phenotype under a mutation-selection-drift balance in a class-structured population allowing for demographically varying class sizes and/or changing environmental conditions. The salient feature of the stationary distribution is that it can be entirely characterized in terms of the average size of the gene pool and Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. The exploration of the phenotypic space varies exponentially with the cumulative inclusive fitness effect over state space, which determines an adaptive landscape. The peaks of the landscapes are those phenotypes that are candidate evolutionary stable strategies and can be determined by standard phenotypic selection gradient methods (e.g. evolutionary game theory, kin selection theory, adaptive dynamics). The curvature of the stationary distribution provides a measure of the stability by convergence of candidate evolutionary stable strategies, and it is evaluated explicitly for two biological scenarios: first, a coordination game, which illustrates that, for a multipeaked adaptive landscape, stochastically stable strategies can be singled out by letting the size of the gene pool grow large; second, a sex-allocation game for diploids and haplo-diploids, which suggests that the equilibrium sex ratio follows a Beta distribution with parameters depending on the features of the genetic system.

A statistical methodology for the comparison of blue gel pen inks analyzed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

A statistical methodology for the objective comparison of LDI-MS mass spectra of blue gel pen inks was evaluated. Thirty-three blue gel pen inks previously studied by RAMAN were analyzed directly on the paper using both positive and negative mode. The obtained mass spectra were first compared using relative areas of selected peaks using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Euclidean distance. Intra-variability among results from one ink and inter-variability between results from different inks were compared in order to choose a differentiation threshold minimizing the rate of false negative (i.e. avoiding false differentiation of the inks). This yielded a discriminating power of up to 77% for analysis made in the negative mode. The whole mass spectra were then compared using the same methodology, allowing for a better DP in the negative mode of 92% using the Pearson correlation on standardized data. The positive mode results generally yielded a lower differential power (DP) than the negative mode due to a higher intra-variability compared to the inter-variability in the mass spectra of the ink samples.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Department of Human Services’ Issuance Verification System for the period March 19, 2009 through April 17, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Department of Human Services’ Issuance Verification System for the period March 19, 2009 through April 17, 2009

Influence of segmental chromosome abnormalities on survival in children over the age of 12 months with unresectable localised peripheral neuroblastic tumours without MYCN amplification.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic impact of segmental chromosome alterations (SCAs) in children older than 1 year, diagnosed with localised unresectable neuroblastoma (NB) without MYCN amplification enrolled in the European Unresectable Neuroblastoma (EUNB) protocol is still to be clarified, while, for other group of patients, the presence of SCAs is associated with poor prognosis. METHODS: To understand the role of SCAs we performed multilocus/pangenomic analysis of 98 tumour samples from patients enrolled in the EUNB protocol. RESULTS: Age at diagnosis was categorised into two groups using 18 months as the age cutoff. Significant difference in the presence of SCAs was seen in tumours of patients between 12 and 18 months and over 18 months of age at diagnosis, respectively (P=0.04). A significant correlation (P=0.03) was observed between number of SCAs per tumour and age. Event-free (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated in both age groups, according to both the presence and number of SCAs. In older patients, a poorer survival was associated with the presence of SCAs (EFS=46% vs 75%, P=0.023; OS=66.8% vs 100%, P=0.003). Moreover, OS of older patients inversely correlated with number of SCAs (P=0.002). Finally, SCAs provided additional prognostic information beyond histoprognosis, as their presence was associated with poorer OS in patients over 18 months with unfavourable International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification (INPC) histopathology (P=0.018). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of SCAs is a negative prognostic marker that impairs outcome of patients over the age of 18 months with localised unresectable NB without MYCN amplification, especially when more than one SCA is present. Moreover, in older patients with unfavourable INPC tumour histoprognosis, the presence of SCAs significantly affects OS.

Advantages of using TEM when analysing asbestos in ambient air

Asbestos is an industrial term to describe some fibrous silicate minerals, which belong to the amphiboles or serpentines group. Six minerals are defined as asbestos including: chrysotile (white asbestos), amosite (grunerite, brown asbestos), crocidolite (riebeckite, blue asbestos), anthophyllite, tremolite and actonolite, but only in their fibrous form. In 1973, the IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer) classified the asbestos minerals as carcinogenic substances (IARC,1973). The Swiss threshold limit (VME) is 0.01 fibre/ml (SUVA, 2007). Asbestos in Switzerland has been prohibited since 1990, but this doesn't mean we are over asbestos. Up to 20'000 tonnes/year of asbestos was imported between the end of WWII and 1990. Today, all this asbestos is still present in buildings renovated or built during that period of time. During restorations, asbestos fibres can be emitted into the air. The quantification of the emission has to be evaluated accurately. To define the exact risk on workers or on the population is quite hard, as many factors must be considered. The methods to detect asbestos in the air or in materials are still being discussed today. Even though the EPA 600 method (EPA, 1993) has proved itself for the analysis of bulk materials, the method for air analysis is more problematic. In Switzerland, the recommended method is VDI 3492 using a scanning electron microscopy (SEM), but we have encountered many identifications problems with this method. For instance, overloaded filters or long-term exposed filters cannot be analysed. This is why the Institute for Work and Health (IST) has adapted the ISO10312 method: ambient air - determination of asbestos fibres - direct-transfer transmission electron microscopy (TEM) method (ISO, 1995). Quality controls have already be done at a French institute (INRS), which validate our practical experiences. The direct-transfer from MEC's filters on TEM's supports (grids) is a delicate part of the preparation for analysis and requires a lot of trials in the laboratory. IST managed to do proper grid preparations after about two years of development. In addition to the preparation of samples, the micro-analysis (EDX), the micro-diffraction and the morphologic analysis (figure 1.a-c) are also to be mastered. Theses are the three elements, which prove the different features of asbestos identification. The SEM isn't able to associate those three analyses. The TEM is also able to make the difference between artificial and natural fibres that have very similar chemical compositions as well as differentiate types of asbestos. Finally the experiments concluded by IST show that TEM is the best method to quantify and identify asbestos in the air.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Department of Transportation’s Internal Billing System for the period April 6, 2009 through July 31, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Department of Transportation’s Internal Billing System for the period April 6, 2009 through July 31, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology (Iowa State University) Purchase Order/Requisition System for the period of March 20 through April 28, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology (Iowa State University) Purchase Order/Requisition System for the period of March 20 through April 28, 2009

Report on the review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa (University of Iowa) ePro System for the period June 15, 2009 through July 31, 2009

Report on the review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa (University of Iowa) ePro System for the period June 15, 2009 through July 31, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the University of Northern Iowa Accounts Payable/Purchasing System for the period of June 10, 2009 through August 20, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the University of Northern Iowa Accounts Payable/Purchasing System for the period of June 10, 2009 through August 20, 2009

Comparaison des réponses hémodynamiques d'un repas modérément salé et d'un repas riche en sel : une hypothèse pour expliquer l'hypertrophie ventriculaire gauche des régimes hypersodés

De nombreuses études cliniques ont révélé une corrélation étroite entre un régime alimentaire riche en sel et le développement d'une hypertrophie ventriculaire gauche. Cette association a été classiquement attribuée aux effets hypertensifs à long terme d'une alimentation riche en sel. Toutefois, les études épidémiologiques ont également démontré que l'hypertrophie ventriculaire gauche peut survenir indépendamment de changements de pression artérielle.¦L'ingestion de sel n'étant pas distribuée de manière homogène durant la journée mais ayant lieu principalement durant les repas, nous émettons l'hypothèse que chaque repas riche en sel induit une augmentation aiguë de la pression artérielle, des pressions de remplissage cardiaque, du volume d'éjection systolique et du débit cardiaque. L'augmentation résultante du travail cardiaque pourrait ainsi à la longue entraîner une hypertrophie cardiaque.¦Pour tester si un repas riche en sel conduit à des modifications hémodynamiques favorisant l'hypertrophie cardiaque, nous avons comparé chez la même personne jeune et en bonne santé la réponse hémodynamique à un repas modérément salé (45 mmol) à celle d'un repas riche en sel (165 mmol de sodium). Les repas ont été pris de manière randomisée à 7 jours d'intervalle. Divers paramètres hémodynamiques ont été mesurés en continu avant et jusqu'à 140 minutes après chaque repas. Nos résultats montrent que les augmentations post-prandiales du volume d'éjection systolique et du travail cardiaque ont été plus prononcées après un repas à haute teneur en sel par rapport à un repas modérément salé.¦Nous spéculons que des apports chroniques en sel induisent des charges hémodynamiques répétées. Etant donné que la concentration plasmatique de sodium, qui est augmentée après un repas salé, est également capable de stimuler la croissance des myocytes cardiaques, il est possible que la combinaison sur des mois ou des années de pics hypernatrémiques post-prandiaux et de charges cardiaques soit responsable de l'hypertrophie cardiaque souvent observée avec une alimentation riche en sel.¦-¦Many clinical studies have shown a close correlation between a chronic high salt diet and the development of left ventricular hypertrophy. This association has been classically attributed to the long-term hypertensive effects of a high salt diet. However, epidemiological studies have also shown that left ventricular hypertrophy may occur independently of changes in arterial pressure.¦Since salt ingestion during a high salt diet is not distributed evenly over a 24-hr period, but occurs essentially during meal periods, we speculate that each acute salt load could lead to greater acute increases in blood pressure, heart filling pressure, stroke volume and cardiac output, putting an additional work load on the heart, promoting in the long run cardiac hypertrophy.¦To test whether a high salt meal leads to hemodynamic changes that may favor cardiac hypertrophy, we compared in the same healthy young individual the response to a moderately salted meal (45 mmol) and to a high-salt meal (165 mmol sodium), given in a random order on separate days, on various cardiovascular parameters that were continuously monitored before and up to 140 minutes after the meal. Our results show that the post-prandial increases in stroke volume, and cardiac work were more pronounced after a high-salt meal than after a low-salt meal.¦We speculate that repetitive salt loads associated with a high salt diet may lead to repetitive hemodynamic loads. Since plasma sodium concentration, which is increased after a salty meal, is also capable to stimulate myocyte growth, it is possible that the combination of post-prandial hypernatremic peaks and of cardiac loads may be responsible, when repeated many times over period of months, of the cardiac hypertrophy often seen with a high salt diet.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa BuildUI System for the period June 14, 2010 through July 19, 2010

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the State University of Iowa BuildUI System for the period June 14, 2010 through July 19, 2010

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology Accounts Receivable System for the period of March 29, 2010 through May 6, 2010

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology Accounts Receivable System for the period of March 29, 2010 through May 6, 2010