Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to. be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The 'spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/- 50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Phase behavior of a phospholipid/fatty acid/water mixture studied in atomic detail

Molecular dynamics simulations have been used to study the phase behavior of a dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC)/palmitic acid (PA)/water 1:2:20 mixture in atomic detail. Starting from a random solution of DPPC and PA in water, the system adopts either a gel phase at temperatures below similar to 330 K or an inverted hexagonal phase above similar to 330 K in good agreement with experiment. It has also been possible to observe the direct transformation from a gel to an inverted hexagonal phase at elevated temperature (similar to 390 K). During this transformation, a metastable fluid lamellar intermediate is observed. Interlamellar connections or stalks form spontaneously on a nanosecond time scale and subsequently elongate, leading to the formation of an inverted hexagonal phase. This work opens the possibility of studying in detail how the formation of nonlamellar phases is affected by lipid composition and (fusion) peptides and, thus, is an important step toward understanding related biological processes, such as membrane fusion.

Pattern-based phylogenetic distance estimation and tree reconstruction

We have developed an alignment-free method that calculates phylogenetic distances using a maximum-likelihood approach for a model of sequence change on patterns that are discovered in unaligned sequences. To evaluate the phylogenetic accuracy of our method, and to conduct a comprehensive comparison of existing alignment-free methods (freely available as Python package decaf+py at http://www.bioinformatics.org.au), we have created a data set of reference trees covering a wide range of phylogenetic distances. Amino acid sequences were evolved along the trees and input to the tested methods; from their calculated distances we infered trees whose topologies we compared to the reference trees. We find our pattern-based method statistically superior to all other tested alignment-free methods. We also demonstrate the general advantage of alignment-free methods over an approach based on automated alignments when sequences violate the assumption of collinearity. Similarly, we compare methods on empirical data from an existing alignment benchmark set that we used to derive reference distances and trees. Our pattern-based approach yields distances that show a linear relationship to reference distances over a substantially longer range than other alignment-free methods. The pattern-based approach outperforms alignment-free methods and its phylogenetic accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from alignment-based distances.

Formal analysis of human-computer interaction using model checking

Experiments with simulators allow psychologists to better understand the causes of human errors and build models of cognitive processes to be used in human reliability assessment (HRA). This paper investigates an approach to task failure analysis based on patterns of behaviour, by contrast to more traditional event-based approaches. It considers, as a case study, a formal model of an air traffic control (ATC) system which incorporates controller behaviour. The cognitive model is formalised in the CSP process algebra. Patterns of behaviour are expressed as temporal logic properties. Then a model-checking technique is used to verify whether the decomposition of the operator's behaviour into patterns is sound and complete with respect to the cognitive model. The decomposition is shown to be incomplete and a new behavioural pattern is identified, which appears to have been overlooked in the analysis of the data provided by the experiments with the simulator. This illustrates how formal analysis of operator models can yield fresh insights into how failures may arise in interactive systems.

A tool for a formal pattern modeling language

This paper presents a formal but practical approach for defining and using design patterns. Initially we formalize the concepts commonly used in defining design patterns using Object-Z. We also formalize consistency constraints that must be satisfied when a pattern is deployed in a design model. Then we implement the pattern modeling language and its consistency constraints using an existing modeling framework, EMF, and incorporate the implementation as plug-ins to the Eclipse modeling environment. While the language is defined formally in terms of Object-Z definitions, the language is implemented in a practical environment. Using the plug-ins, users can develop precise pattern descriptions without knowing the underlying formalism, and can use the tool to check the validity of the pattern descriptions and pattern usage in design models. In this work, formalism brings precision to the pattern language definition and its implementation brings practicability to our pattern-based modeling approach.

Introducing uncertainty into pattern discovery in temporal event sequences

Pattern discovery in temporal event sequences is of great importance in many application domains, such as telecommunication network fault analysis. In reality, not every type of event has an accurate timestamp. Some of them, defined as inaccurate events may only have an interval as possible time of occurrence. The existence of inaccurate events may cause uncertainty in event ordering. The traditional support model cannot deal with this uncertainty, which would cause some interesting patterns to be missing. A new concept, precise support, is introduced to evaluate the probability of a pattern contained in a sequence. Based on this new metric, we define the uncertainty model and present an algorithm to discover interesting patterns in the sequence database that has one type of inaccurate event. In our model, the number of types of inaccurate events can be extended to k readily, however, at a cost of increasing computational complexity.

Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

Mixture density networks

Minimization of a sum-of-squares or cross-entropy error function leads to network outputs which approximate the conditional averages of the target data, conditioned on the input vector. For classifications problems, with a suitably chosen target coding scheme, these averages represent the posterior probabilities of class membership, and so can be regarded as optimal. For problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, however, the conditional averages provide only a very limited description of the properties of the target variables. This is particularly true for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued, as often arises in the solution of inverse problems, since the average of several correct target values is not necessarily itself a correct value. In order to obtain a complete description of the data, for the purposes of predicting the outputs corresponding to new input vectors, we must model the conditional probability distribution of the target data, again conditioned on the input vector. In this paper we introduce a new class of network models obtained by combining a conventional neural network with a mixture density model. The complete system is called a Mixture Density Network, and can in principle represent arbitrary conditional probability distributions in the same way that a conventional neural network can represent arbitrary functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Mixture Density Networks using both a toy problem and a problem involving robot inverse kinematics.

Multi-valued control problems and mixture density network

We have proposed a novel robust inversion-based neurocontroller that searches for the optimal control law by sampling from the estimated Gaussian distribution of the inverse plant model. However, for problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, a Gaussian model approximation provides only a very limited description of the properties of the inverse model. This is usually the case for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued or involves hysteritic transfer characteristics. This often arises in the solution of inverse plant models. In order to obtain a complete description of the inverse model, a more general multicomponent distributions must be modeled. In this paper we test whether our proposed sampling approach can be used when considering an arbitrary conditional probability distributions. These arbitrary distributions will be modeled by a mixture density network. Importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The effectiveness of the importance sampling from an arbitrary conditional probability distribution will be demonstrated using a simple single input single output static nonlinear system with hysteretic characteristics in the inverse plant model.

Response-based segmentation using Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares: theoretical foundations and an application to American Customer Satisfaction Index Data

When applying multivariate analysis techniques in information systems and social science disciplines, such as management information systems (MIS) and marketing, the assumption that the empirical data originate from a single homogeneous population is often unrealistic. When applying a causal modeling approach, such as partial least squares (PLS) path modeling, segmentation is a key issue in coping with the problem of heterogeneity in estimated cause-and-effect relationships. This chapter presents a new PLS path modeling approach which classifies units on the basis of the heterogeneity of the estimates in the inner model. If unobserved heterogeneity significantly affects the estimated path model relationships on the aggregate data level, the methodology will allow homogenous groups of observations to be created that exhibit distinctive path model estimates. The approach will, thus, provide differentiated analytical outcomes that permit more precise interpretations of each segment formed. An application on a large data set in an example of the American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) substantiates the methodology’s effectiveness in evaluating PLS path modeling results.

Blur adaptation explained by a norm-based model of contrast adaptation

Adapting to blurred images makes in-focus images look too sharp, and vice-versa (Webster et al, 2002 Nature Neuroscience 5 839 - 840). We asked how such blur adaptation is related to contrast adaptation. Georgeson (1985 Spatial Vision 1 103 - 112) found that grating contrast adaptation followed a subtractive rule: perceived (matched) contrast of a grating was fairly well predicted by subtracting some fraction k(~0.3) of the adapting contrast from the test contrast. Here we apply that rule to the responses of a set of spatial filters at different scales and orientations. Blur is encoded by the pattern of filter response magnitudes over scale. We tested two versions - the 'norm model' and 'fatigue model' - against blur-matching data obtained after adaptation to sharpened, in-focus or blurred images. In the fatigue model, filter responses are simply reduced by exposure to the adapter. In the norm model, (a) the visual system is pre-adapted to a focused world and (b) discrepancy between observed and expected responses to the experimental adapter leads to additional reduction (or enhancement) of filter responses during experimental adaptation. The two models are closely related, but only the norm model gave a satisfactory account of results across the four experiments analysed, with one free parameter k. This model implies that the visual system is pre-adapted to focused images, that adapting to in-focus or blank images produces no change in adaptation, and that adapting to sharpened or blurred images changes the state of adaptation, leading to changes in perceived blur or sharpness.

Contrast discrimination and pattern masking: contrast gain control with fixed additive noise

We studied the visual mechanisms that serve to encode spatial contrast at threshold and supra-threshold levels. In a 2AFC contrast-discrimination task, observers had to detect the presence of a vertical 1 cycle deg-1 test grating (of contrast dc) that was superimposed on a similar vertical 1 cycle deg-1 pedestal grating, whereas in pattern masking the test grating was accompanied by a very different masking grating (horizontal 1 cycle deg-1, or oblique 3 cycles deg-1). When expressed as threshold contrast (dc at 75% correct) versus mask contrast (c) our results confirm previous ones in showing a characteristic 'dipper function' for contrast discrimination but a smoothly increasing threshold for pattern masking. However, fresh insight is gained by analysing and modelling performance (p; percent correct) as a joint function of (c, dc) - the performance surface. In contrast discrimination, psychometric functions (p versus logdc) are markedly less steep when c is above threshold, but in pattern masking this reduction of slope did not occur. We explored a standard gain-control model with six free parameters. Three parameters control the contrast response of the detection mechanism and one parameter weights the mask contrast in the cross-channel suppression effect. We assume that signal-detection performance (d') is limited by additive noise of constant variance. Noise level and lapse rate are also fitted parameters of the model. We show that this model accounts very accurately for the whole performance surface in both types of masking, and thus explains the threshold functions and the pattern of variation in psychometric slopes. The cross-channel weight is about 0.20. The model shows that the mechanism response to contrast increment (dc) is linearised by the presence of pedestal contrasts but remains nonlinear in pattern masking.

Spectral pattern, grouping, and the pitches of complex tones and their components

Harmonically related components are typically heard as a unified entity with a rich timbre and a pitch corresponding to the fundamental frequency. Mistuning a component generally has four consequences: (i) the global pitch of the complex shifts in the same direction as the mistuning; (ii) the component makes a reduced contribution to global pitch; (iii) the component is heard out as a separate sound with a pure timbre; (iv) its pitch differs from that of a pure tone of equal frequency in a small but systematic way. Local interactions between neighbouring components cannot explain these effects; instead they are usually explained in terms of the global operation of a single harmonic-template mechanism. However, several observations indicate that separate mechanisms govern the selection of spectral components for perceptual fusion and for the computation of global pitch. First, an increase in mistuning causes a harmonic to be heard out before it begins to be excluded from the computation of global pitch. Second, a single even harmonic added to an odd-harmonic complex is typically more salient than its odd neighbours. Third, the mistuning of a component in frequency-shifted stimuli, or stimuli with a moderate spectral stretch, results in changes in salience and component pitch like those seen for harmonic stimuli. Fourth, the global pitch of frequency-shifted stimuli is predicted well by the weighted fit of a harmonic template, but, with the exception of the lowest component, the fusion of individual partials for shifted stimuli is best predicted by the common pattern of spectral spacing. Fifth, our sensitivity to spectral pattern is surprisingly resistant to random variations in component spacing induced by applying mistunings to several harmonics at once. These findings are evaluated in the context of an autocorrelogram model of the proposed pitch/grouping dissociation. © S. Hirzel Verlag · EAA.

A new randomization assay reveals Unexpected elements of sequence bias in model 'randomized' gene libraries:Implications for biopanning

Although techniques such as biopanning rely heavily upon the screening of randomized gene libraries, there is surprisingly little information available on the construction of those libraries. In general, it is based on the cloning of 'randomized' synthetic oligonucleotides, in which given position(s) contain an equal mixture of all four bases. Yet, many supposedly 'randomized' libraries contain significant elements of bias and/or omission. Here, we report the development and validation of a new, PCR-based assay that enables rapid examination of library composition both prior to and after cloning. By using our assay to analyse model libraries, we demonstrate that the cloning of a given distribution of sequences does not necessarily result in a similarly composed library of clones. Thus, while bias in randomized synthetic oligonucleotide mixtures can be virtually eliminated by using unequal ratios of the four phosphoramidites, the use of such mixtures does not ensure retrieval of a truly randomized library. We propose that in the absence of a technique to control cloning frequencies, the ability to analyse the composition of libraries after cloning will enhance significantly the quality of information derived from those libraries. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Topographic mapping and source localization of the pattern reversal visual evoked magnetic response

The topography of the visual evoked magnetic response (VEMR) to pattern reversal stimulation was studied in four normal subjects using a single channel BTI magnetometer. VEMRs were recorded from 20 locations over the occipital scalp and the topographic distribution of the most consistent component (P100M) studied. A single dipole in a sphere model was fitted to the data. Topographic maps were similar when recorded two months apart on the same subject to the same stimulus. Half field (HF) stimulation elicited responses from sources on the medial surface of the calcarine fissure mainly in the contralateral hemisphere as predicted by the cruciform model. The full field (FF) responses to large checks were approximately the sum of the HF responses. However, with small checks, FF stimulation appeared to activate a different combination of sources than the two HFs. In addition, HF topography was more consistent between subjects than FF for small check sizes. Topographic studies of the VEMR may help to explain the analogous visual evoked electrical response and will be essential to define optimal recording positions for clinical applications.